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Algorithmic market making for options Olivier Gu´ eant (Universit´ e Paris 1 Panth´ eon-Sorbonne) joint work with Bastien Baldacci (Ecole Polytechnique) and Philippe Bergault (Universit´ e Paris 1 Panth´ eon-Sorbonne) London, February 20th, 2020 1

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Page 1: Algorithmic market making for options - london.pdf · Algorithmic trading with model uncertainty. SIAM Journal on Financial Mathematics, 2017. 9. Literature Figure 1: A nice book

Algorithmic market making for options

Olivier Gueant (Universite Paris 1 Pantheon-Sorbonne)

joint work with Bastien Baldacci (Ecole Polytechnique) and Philippe Bergault

(Universite Paris 1 Pantheon-Sorbonne)

London, February 20th, 2020

1

Page 2: Algorithmic market making for options - london.pdf · Algorithmic trading with model uncertainty. SIAM Journal on Financial Mathematics, 2017. 9. Literature Figure 1: A nice book

Introduction

Page 3: Algorithmic market making for options - london.pdf · Algorithmic trading with model uncertainty. SIAM Journal on Financial Mathematics, 2017. 9. Literature Figure 1: A nice book

Market Making

What is a market maker?

• A market maker is a liquidity provider. He / she provides bid and

ask prices for a list of assets to other market participants.

• Today, market makers are often replaced by market making

algorithms.

A market maker faces a complex optimization problem

• Makes money out of buying low and selling high (bid-ask spread).

• Faces the risk that the price moves adversely without him/her being

able to unwind his position rapidly enough.

2

Page 4: Algorithmic market making for options - london.pdf · Algorithmic trading with model uncertainty. SIAM Journal on Financial Mathematics, 2017. 9. Literature Figure 1: A nice book

Market Making

What is a market maker?

• A market maker is a liquidity provider. He / she provides bid and

ask prices for a list of assets to other market participants.

• Today, market makers are often replaced by market making

algorithms.

A market maker faces a complex optimization problem

• Makes money out of buying low and selling high (bid-ask spread).

• Faces the risk that the price moves adversely without him/her being

able to unwind his position rapidly enough.

2

Page 5: Algorithmic market making for options - london.pdf · Algorithmic trading with model uncertainty. SIAM Journal on Financial Mathematics, 2017. 9. Literature Figure 1: A nice book

Literature

Literature: a bit of history

• Ho and Stoll (1981)

• Grossman and Miller (1988)

New interest 20 years later

• Avellaneda and Stoikov. High-frequency trading in a limit order

book. Quantitative Finance, 2008.

3

Page 6: Algorithmic market making for options - london.pdf · Algorithmic trading with model uncertainty. SIAM Journal on Financial Mathematics, 2017. 9. Literature Figure 1: A nice book

Literature

Literature: a bit of history

• Ho and Stoll (1981)

• Grossman and Miller (1988)

New interest 20 years later

• Avellaneda and Stoikov. High-frequency trading in a limit order

book. Quantitative Finance, 2008.

3

Page 7: Algorithmic market making for options - london.pdf · Algorithmic trading with model uncertainty. SIAM Journal on Financial Mathematics, 2017. 9. Literature Figure 1: A nice book

Avellaneda-Stoikov: a first model

Page 8: Algorithmic market making for options - london.pdf · Algorithmic trading with model uncertainty. SIAM Journal on Financial Mathematics, 2017. 9. Literature Figure 1: A nice book

Avellaneda-Stoikov modelling framework

• One asset with reference price process (mid-price) (St)t :

dSt = σdWt .

• Bid and ask prices of the MM denoted respectively

Sbt = St − δbt and Sa

t = St + δat .

• Point processes Nb and Na (indep. of W ) for the transactions (size

z = 1). Inventory (qt)t :

dqt = zdNbt − zdNa

t .

4

Page 9: Algorithmic market making for options - london.pdf · Algorithmic trading with model uncertainty. SIAM Journal on Financial Mathematics, 2017. 9. Literature Figure 1: A nice book

Avellaneda-Stoikov modelling framework

• One asset with reference price process (mid-price) (St)t :

dSt = σdWt .

• Bid and ask prices of the MM denoted respectively

Sbt = St − δbt and Sa

t = St + δat .

• Point processes Nb and Na (indep. of W ) for the transactions (size

z = 1). Inventory (qt)t :

dqt = zdNbt − zdNa

t .

4

Page 10: Algorithmic market making for options - london.pdf · Algorithmic trading with model uncertainty. SIAM Journal on Financial Mathematics, 2017. 9. Literature Figure 1: A nice book

Avellaneda-Stoikov modelling framework

• One asset with reference price process (mid-price) (St)t :

dSt = σdWt .

• Bid and ask prices of the MM denoted respectively

Sbt = St − δbt and Sa

t = St + δat .

• Point processes Nb and Na (indep. of W ) for the transactions (size

z = 1). Inventory (qt)t :

dqt = zdNbt − zdNa

t .

4

Page 11: Algorithmic market making for options - london.pdf · Algorithmic trading with model uncertainty. SIAM Journal on Financial Mathematics, 2017. 9. Literature Figure 1: A nice book

Avellaneda-Stoikov modelling framework (continued)

• The intensities of Nb and Na depend on the distance to the

reference price:

λbt = Λb(δbt ) and λat = Λa(δat ).

Λb, Λa decreasing. Avellaneda and Stoikov suggested

Λb(δ) = Λa(δ) = Ae−kδ.

• Cash process (Xt)t :

dXt = zSat dN

at − zSb

t dNbt = −Stdqt + δat zdN

at + δbt zdN

bt .

Three state variables: X (cash), q (inventory), and S (price).

5

Page 12: Algorithmic market making for options - london.pdf · Algorithmic trading with model uncertainty. SIAM Journal on Financial Mathematics, 2017. 9. Literature Figure 1: A nice book

Avellaneda-Stoikov modelling framework (continued)

• The intensities of Nb and Na depend on the distance to the

reference price:

λbt = Λb(δbt ) and λat = Λa(δat ).

Λb, Λa decreasing. Avellaneda and Stoikov suggested

Λb(δ) = Λa(δ) = Ae−kδ.

• Cash process (Xt)t :

dXt = zSat dN

at − zSb

t dNbt = −Stdqt + δat zdN

at + δbt zdN

bt .

Three state variables: X (cash), q (inventory), and S (price).

5

Page 13: Algorithmic market making for options - london.pdf · Algorithmic trading with model uncertainty. SIAM Journal on Financial Mathematics, 2017. 9. Literature Figure 1: A nice book

Avellaneda-Stoikov modelling framework (continued)

• The intensities of Nb and Na depend on the distance to the

reference price:

λbt = Λb(δbt ) and λat = Λa(δat ).

Λb, Λa decreasing. Avellaneda and Stoikov suggested

Λb(δ) = Λa(δ) = Ae−kδ.

• Cash process (Xt)t :

dXt = zSat dN

at − zSb

t dNbt = −Stdqt + δat zdN

at + δbt zdN

bt .

Three state variables: X (cash), q (inventory), and S (price).

5

Page 14: Algorithmic market making for options - london.pdf · Algorithmic trading with model uncertainty. SIAM Journal on Financial Mathematics, 2017. 9. Literature Figure 1: A nice book

Avellaneda-Stoikov objective function and HJB equation

CARA objective function

sup(δat )t ,(δbt )t∈A

E [− exp (−γ(XT + qTST ))] ,

where γ is the absolute risk aversion parameter, T a time horizon, and Athe set of predictable processes bounded from below.

An (a priori) awful Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman

(HJB) 0 = ∂tu(t, x , q,S) +1

2σ2∂2

SSu(t, x , q,S)

+ supδb

Λb(δb)[u(t, x − zS + zδb, q + z ,S)− u(t, x , q,S)

]+ sup

δaΛa(δa) [u(t, x + zS + zδa, q − z ,S)− u(t, x , q,S)]

with final condition:

u(T , x , q,S) = − exp (−γ(x + qS)) .

6

Page 15: Algorithmic market making for options - london.pdf · Algorithmic trading with model uncertainty. SIAM Journal on Financial Mathematics, 2017. 9. Literature Figure 1: A nice book

Avellaneda-Stoikov objective function and HJB equation

CARA objective function

sup(δat )t ,(δbt )t∈A

E [− exp (−γ(XT + qTST ))] ,

where γ is the absolute risk aversion parameter, T a time horizon, and Athe set of predictable processes bounded from below.

An (a priori) awful Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman

(HJB) 0 = ∂tu(t, x , q,S) +1

2σ2∂2

SSu(t, x , q,S)

+ supδb

Λb(δb)[u(t, x − zS + zδb, q + z ,S)− u(t, x , q,S)

]+ sup

δaΛa(δa) [u(t, x + zS + zδa, q − z ,S)− u(t, x , q,S)]

with final condition:

u(T , x , q,S) = − exp (−γ(x + qS)) .

6

Page 16: Algorithmic market making for options - london.pdf · Algorithmic trading with model uncertainty. SIAM Journal on Financial Mathematics, 2017. 9. Literature Figure 1: A nice book

A rigorous analysis

Solution of the Avellaneda-Stoikov model

• Gueant, Lehalle, and Fernandez-Tapia. Dealing with the Inventory

Risk: A solution to the market making problem. MAFE, 2013.

When risk limits are set, solving the AS model with exponential intensities

boils down to solving a system of linear ordinary differential equations!

7

Page 17: Algorithmic market making for options - london.pdf · Algorithmic trading with model uncertainty. SIAM Journal on Financial Mathematics, 2017. 9. Literature Figure 1: A nice book

A rigorous analysis

Solution of the Avellaneda-Stoikov model

• Gueant, Lehalle, and Fernandez-Tapia. Dealing with the Inventory

Risk: A solution to the market making problem. MAFE, 2013.

When risk limits are set, solving the AS model with exponential intensities

boils down to solving a system of linear ordinary differential equations!

7

Page 18: Algorithmic market making for options - london.pdf · Algorithmic trading with model uncertainty. SIAM Journal on Financial Mathematics, 2017. 9. Literature Figure 1: A nice book

Market making: an interesting

research strand

Page 19: Algorithmic market making for options - london.pdf · Algorithmic trading with model uncertainty. SIAM Journal on Financial Mathematics, 2017. 9. Literature Figure 1: A nice book

Literature

Many extensions of the initial one-asset model

• Multi-asset framework.

• General intensities (e.g. logistic).

• Variable RFQ sizes.

• Different objective functions (mean-variance-like criterion).

• Client tiering.

• Adverse selection.

• Drift / signal / alpha.

• Access to liquidity pools (exchange / IDB - for some asset classes).

• Market and limit orders (not relevant for all asset classes).

• ...

8

Page 20: Algorithmic market making for options - london.pdf · Algorithmic trading with model uncertainty. SIAM Journal on Financial Mathematics, 2017. 9. Literature Figure 1: A nice book

Literature

Papers by Cartea, Jaimungal et al.

• Cartea, Jaimungal, and Ricci. Buy low, sell high: A high frequency

trading perspective. SIAM Journal on Financial Mathematics, 2014.

• Cartea, Donnelly, and Jaimungal. Algorithmic trading with model

uncertainty. SIAM Journal on Financial Mathematics, 2017.

9

Page 21: Algorithmic market making for options - london.pdf · Algorithmic trading with model uncertainty. SIAM Journal on Financial Mathematics, 2017. 9. Literature Figure 1: A nice book

Literature

Figure 1: A nice book dealing with market making

10

Page 22: Algorithmic market making for options - london.pdf · Algorithmic trading with model uncertainty. SIAM Journal on Financial Mathematics, 2017. 9. Literature Figure 1: A nice book

Literature

Papers by Guilbaud and Pham

• Guilbaud and Pham. Optimal High-Frequency Trading with limit

and market orders. Quantitative Finance, 2013.

• Guilbaud and Pham. Optimal High-Frequency Trading in a Pro-Rata

Microstructure with Predictive Information. Mathematical Finance,

2015.

11

Page 23: Algorithmic market making for options - london.pdf · Algorithmic trading with model uncertainty. SIAM Journal on Financial Mathematics, 2017. 9. Literature Figure 1: A nice book

Multi-asset market making

Extensions to multi-asset portfolios

• Gueant. The Financial

Mathematics of Market Liquidity.

From Optimal Execution to Market

Making. CRC Press, 2016.

• Gueant. Optimal market making.

Applied Mathematical Finance,

2017.

Figure 2: Another nice book

12

Page 24: Algorithmic market making for options - london.pdf · Algorithmic trading with model uncertainty. SIAM Journal on Financial Mathematics, 2017. 9. Literature Figure 1: A nice book

Multi-asset market making

The problem

The number of equations to solve typically grows exponentially with the

number of assets.

Attempts to solve it

• Dimensionality reduction with risk factors: Bergault and Gueant,

Size matters for OTC market makers: general results and

dimensionality reduction techniques, 2020.

• Reinforcement learning techniques to go beyond the curse of

dimensionality: Gueant and Manziuk, Deep reinforcement learning

for market making in corporate bonds: beating the curse of

dimensionality, Applied Mathematical Finance, 2019.

• Other works in progress.

Our paper on options is inspired by the first approach.

13

Page 25: Algorithmic market making for options - london.pdf · Algorithmic trading with model uncertainty. SIAM Journal on Financial Mathematics, 2017. 9. Literature Figure 1: A nice book

Multi-asset market making

The problem

The number of equations to solve typically grows exponentially with the

number of assets.

Attempts to solve it

• Dimensionality reduction with risk factors: Bergault and Gueant,

Size matters for OTC market makers: general results and

dimensionality reduction techniques, 2020.

• Reinforcement learning techniques to go beyond the curse of

dimensionality: Gueant and Manziuk, Deep reinforcement learning

for market making in corporate bonds: beating the curse of

dimensionality, Applied Mathematical Finance, 2019.

• Other works in progress.

Our paper on options is inspired by the first approach.

13

Page 26: Algorithmic market making for options - london.pdf · Algorithmic trading with model uncertainty. SIAM Journal on Financial Mathematics, 2017. 9. Literature Figure 1: A nice book

Multi-asset market making

The problem

The number of equations to solve typically grows exponentially with the

number of assets.

Attempts to solve it

• Dimensionality reduction with risk factors: Bergault and Gueant,

Size matters for OTC market makers: general results and

dimensionality reduction techniques, 2020.

• Reinforcement learning techniques to go beyond the curse of

dimensionality: Gueant and Manziuk, Deep reinforcement learning

for market making in corporate bonds: beating the curse of

dimensionality, Applied Mathematical Finance, 2019.

• Other works in progress.

Our paper on options is inspired by the first approach.

13

Page 27: Algorithmic market making for options - london.pdf · Algorithmic trading with model uncertainty. SIAM Journal on Financial Mathematics, 2017. 9. Literature Figure 1: A nice book

Multi-asset market making

The problem

The number of equations to solve typically grows exponentially with the

number of assets.

Attempts to solve it

• Dimensionality reduction with risk factors: Bergault and Gueant,

Size matters for OTC market makers: general results and

dimensionality reduction techniques, 2020.

• Reinforcement learning techniques to go beyond the curse of

dimensionality: Gueant and Manziuk, Deep reinforcement learning

for market making in corporate bonds: beating the curse of

dimensionality, Applied Mathematical Finance, 2019.

• Other works in progress.

Our paper on options is inspired by the first approach.

13

Page 28: Algorithmic market making for options - london.pdf · Algorithmic trading with model uncertainty. SIAM Journal on Financial Mathematics, 2017. 9. Literature Figure 1: A nice book

Multi-asset market making

The problem

The number of equations to solve typically grows exponentially with the

number of assets.

Attempts to solve it

• Dimensionality reduction with risk factors: Bergault and Gueant,

Size matters for OTC market makers: general results and

dimensionality reduction techniques, 2020.

• Reinforcement learning techniques to go beyond the curse of

dimensionality: Gueant and Manziuk, Deep reinforcement learning

for market making in corporate bonds: beating the curse of

dimensionality, Applied Mathematical Finance, 2019.

• Other works in progress.

Our paper on options is inspired by the first approach.

13

Page 29: Algorithmic market making for options - london.pdf · Algorithmic trading with model uncertainty. SIAM Journal on Financial Mathematics, 2017. 9. Literature Figure 1: A nice book

Multi-asset market making

The problem

The number of equations to solve typically grows exponentially with the

number of assets.

Attempts to solve it

• Dimensionality reduction with risk factors: Bergault and Gueant,

Size matters for OTC market makers: general results and

dimensionality reduction techniques, 2020.

• Reinforcement learning techniques to go beyond the curse of

dimensionality: Gueant and Manziuk, Deep reinforcement learning

for market making in corporate bonds: beating the curse of

dimensionality, Applied Mathematical Finance, 2019.

• Other works in progress.

Our paper on options is inspired by the first approach.

13

Page 30: Algorithmic market making for options - london.pdf · Algorithmic trading with model uncertainty. SIAM Journal on Financial Mathematics, 2017. 9. Literature Figure 1: A nice book

Asset classes

Extensions to derivatives

• Stoikov and Saglam. Option market making under inventory risk,

Review of Derivatives Research, 2009.

• Abergel and El Aoud. A stochastic control approach to option

market making. Market Microstructure and Liquidity, 2015.

• Baldacci, Bergault and Gueant. Algorithmic market making

for options. 2020. (On ArXiv, in revision)

Relevant models should handle several option contracts and tackle the

question of ∆-hedging / trading in the underlying asset.

14

Page 31: Algorithmic market making for options - london.pdf · Algorithmic trading with model uncertainty. SIAM Journal on Financial Mathematics, 2017. 9. Literature Figure 1: A nice book

Asset classes

Extensions to derivatives

• Stoikov and Saglam. Option market making under inventory risk,

Review of Derivatives Research, 2009.

• Abergel and El Aoud. A stochastic control approach to option

market making. Market Microstructure and Liquidity, 2015.

• Baldacci, Bergault and Gueant. Algorithmic market making

for options. 2020. (On ArXiv, in revision)

Relevant models should handle several option contracts and tackle the

question of ∆-hedging / trading in the underlying asset.

14

Page 32: Algorithmic market making for options - london.pdf · Algorithmic trading with model uncertainty. SIAM Journal on Financial Mathematics, 2017. 9. Literature Figure 1: A nice book

Option market making: the

model

Page 33: Algorithmic market making for options - london.pdf · Algorithmic trading with model uncertainty. SIAM Journal on Financial Mathematics, 2017. 9. Literature Figure 1: A nice book

The market

Asset price dynamics under P{dSt = µStdt +

√νtStdW

St

dνt = aP(t, νt)dt + ξ√νtdW

νt .

Asset price dynamics under Q (pricing measure) - r = 0{dSt =

√νtStdW

St

dνt = aQ(t, νt)dt + ξ√νtdW

νt .

Another one-factor model can be chosen (e.g. Bergomi). Two-factor

models are also possible: they increase the dimensionality of the problem

by 1.

15

Page 34: Algorithmic market making for options - london.pdf · Algorithmic trading with model uncertainty. SIAM Journal on Financial Mathematics, 2017. 9. Literature Figure 1: A nice book

The market

Asset price dynamics under P{dSt = µStdt +

√νtStdW

St

dνt = aP(t, νt)dt + ξ√νtdW

νt .

Asset price dynamics under Q (pricing measure) - r = 0{dSt =

√νtStdW

St

dνt = aQ(t, νt)dt + ξ√νtdW

νt .

Another one-factor model can be chosen (e.g. Bergomi). Two-factor

models are also possible: they increase the dimensionality of the problem

by 1.

15

Page 35: Algorithmic market making for options - london.pdf · Algorithmic trading with model uncertainty. SIAM Journal on Financial Mathematics, 2017. 9. Literature Figure 1: A nice book

The market

Asset price dynamics under P{dSt = µStdt +

√νtStdW

St

dνt = aP(t, νt)dt + ξ√νtdW

νt .

Asset price dynamics under Q (pricing measure) - r = 0{dSt =

√νtStdW

St

dνt = aQ(t, νt)dt + ξ√νtdW

νt .

Another one-factor model can be chosen (e.g. Bergomi). Two-factor

models are also possible: they increase the dimensionality of the problem

by 1.

15

Page 36: Algorithmic market making for options - london.pdf · Algorithmic trading with model uncertainty. SIAM Journal on Financial Mathematics, 2017. 9. Literature Figure 1: A nice book

The market

The options

• We consider N ≥ 1 European options written on the above asset.

• For i = 1, . . . ,N:

• Maturity of the i-th option: T i

• Price process of the i-th option: (Oit)t∈[0,T i ]

Partial differential equation

Oit = O i (t,St , νt) where

0 = ∂tOi (t,S , ν) + aQ(t, ν)∂νO

i (t,S , ν) +1

2νS2∂2

SSOi (t,S , ν)

+ ρξνS∂2νSO

i (t,S , ν) +1

2ξ2ν∂2

ννOi (t,S , ν).

16

Page 37: Algorithmic market making for options - london.pdf · Algorithmic trading with model uncertainty. SIAM Journal on Financial Mathematics, 2017. 9. Literature Figure 1: A nice book

The market

The options

• We consider N ≥ 1 European options written on the above asset.

• For i = 1, . . . ,N:

• Maturity of the i-th option: T i

• Price process of the i-th option: (Oit)t∈[0,T i ]

Partial differential equation

Oit = O i (t,St , νt) where

0 = ∂tOi (t,S , ν) + aQ(t, ν)∂νO

i (t,S , ν) +1

2νS2∂2

SSOi (t,S , ν)

+ ρξνS∂2νSO

i (t,S , ν) +1

2ξ2ν∂2

ννOi (t,S , ν).

16

Page 38: Algorithmic market making for options - london.pdf · Algorithmic trading with model uncertainty. SIAM Journal on Financial Mathematics, 2017. 9. Literature Figure 1: A nice book

Requests

Distribution of requests

• Requests on option i arrive with intensities λi,brequest and λi,arequest.

• Request sizes for option i are distributed according to probability

measures µi,b(dz) and µi,a(dz).

• Bid and ask prices answered for option i (transaction of size z) if the

transaction does not violate risk limits:

Oit − δ

i,bt (z) and Oi

t + δi,at (z).

• Probabilities of trading:

f i,b(δi,bt (z)) and f i,a(δi,at (z)).

17

Page 39: Algorithmic market making for options - london.pdf · Algorithmic trading with model uncertainty. SIAM Journal on Financial Mathematics, 2017. 9. Literature Figure 1: A nice book

Inventory in the options

Resulting dynamics of the inventory process

dqit =

∫R∗+

zN i,b(dt, dz)−∫R∗+

zN i,a(dt, dz),

where N i,b and N i,a are marked point processes with kernels:

ν i,bt (dz) = λi,brequestfi,b(δi,bt (z))︸ ︷︷ ︸

Λi,b(δi,bt (z))

1{qt−+ze i∈Q}µi,b(dz),

ν i,at (dz) = λi,arequestfi,a(δi,at (z))︸ ︷︷ ︸

Λi,a(δi,at (z))

1{qt−−ze i∈Q}µi,a(dz).

18

Page 40: Algorithmic market making for options - london.pdf · Algorithmic trading with model uncertainty. SIAM Journal on Financial Mathematics, 2017. 9. Literature Figure 1: A nice book

Inventory in the underlying asset

∆-hedging

The market maker ensures perfect ∆-hedging where

∆t =N∑i=1

∂SOi (t,St , νt)qit .

Continuous trading is our real assumption:

• The assumption of perfect ∆-hedging can in fact be relaxed.

• One can hedge part of the vega by trading the underlying asset.

→ See the appendix of our paper on ArXiv.

19

Page 41: Algorithmic market making for options - london.pdf · Algorithmic trading with model uncertainty. SIAM Journal on Financial Mathematics, 2017. 9. Literature Figure 1: A nice book

Inventory in the underlying asset

∆-hedging

The market maker ensures perfect ∆-hedging where

∆t =N∑i=1

∂SOi (t,St , νt)qit .

Continuous trading is our real assumption:

• The assumption of perfect ∆-hedging can in fact be relaxed.

• One can hedge part of the vega by trading the underlying asset.

→ See the appendix of our paper on ArXiv.

19

Page 42: Algorithmic market making for options - london.pdf · Algorithmic trading with model uncertainty. SIAM Journal on Financial Mathematics, 2017. 9. Literature Figure 1: A nice book

Cash dynamics and Mark-to-Market value of the portfolio

Cash dynamics

dXt =N∑i=1

(∫R∗+

z(δi,bt (z)N i,b(dt, dz) + δi,at (z)N i,a(dt, dz)

)−Oi

tdqit

)+Std∆t + d

⟨∆,S

⟩t.

Mark-to-Market value of the portfolio

Vt = Xt −∆tSt +N∑i=1

qitOit .

20

Page 43: Algorithmic market making for options - london.pdf · Algorithmic trading with model uncertainty. SIAM Journal on Financial Mathematics, 2017. 9. Literature Figure 1: A nice book

Cash dynamics and Mark-to-Market value of the portfolio

Cash dynamics

dXt =N∑i=1

(∫R∗+

z(δi,bt (z)N i,b(dt, dz) + δi,at (z)N i,a(dt, dz)

)−Oi

tdqit

)+Std∆t + d

⟨∆,S

⟩t.

Mark-to-Market value of the portfolio

Vt = Xt −∆tSt +N∑i=1

qitOit .

20

Page 44: Algorithmic market making for options - london.pdf · Algorithmic trading with model uncertainty. SIAM Journal on Financial Mathematics, 2017. 9. Literature Figure 1: A nice book

Dynamics of the Mark-to-Market value of the portfolio

Dynamics of the MtM value

dVt =N∑i=1

∫R∗+

z(δi,bt (z)N i,b(dt, dz) + δi,at (z)N i,a(dt, dz)

)+

N∑i=1

qitdOit −∆tdSt

=N∑i=1

∫R∗+

z(δi,at (z)N i,a(dt, dz) + δi,bt (z)N i,b(dt, dz)

)+

N∑i=1

qit∂νOi (t,St , νt)

(aP(t, νt)− aQ(t, νt)

)dt

+√νtξq

it∂νO

i (t,St , νt)dWνt .

21

Page 45: Algorithmic market making for options - london.pdf · Algorithmic trading with model uncertainty. SIAM Journal on Financial Mathematics, 2017. 9. Literature Figure 1: A nice book

Dynamics of the Mark-to-Market value of the portfolio

Dynamics of the MtM value

dVt =N∑i=1

∫R∗+

z(δi,bt (z)N i,b(dt, dz) + δi,at (z)N i,a(dt, dz)

)+

N∑i=1

qitdOit −∆tdSt

=N∑i=1

∫R∗+

z(δi,at (z)N i,a(dt, dz) + δi,bt (z)N i,b(dt, dz)

)+

N∑i=1

qit∂νOi (t,St , νt)

(aP(t, νt)− aQ(t, νt)

)dt

+√νtξq

it∂νO

i (t,St , νt)dWνt .

21

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Introducing vegas

Vega of the i-th option

V it := ∂√νO

i (t,St , νt) = 2√νt∂νO

i (t,St , νt).

Simplified dynamics of the MtM value

dVt =N∑i=1

∫R∗+

z(δi,at (z)N i,a(dt, dz) + δi,bt (z)N i,b(dt, dz)

)+

N∑i=1

qitV it

aP(t, νt)− aQ(t, νt)

2√νt

dt +N∑i=1

ξ

2qitV i

tdWνt .

22

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Introducing vegas

Vega of the i-th option

V it := ∂√νO

i (t,St , νt) = 2√νt∂νO

i (t,St , νt).

Simplified dynamics of the MtM value

dVt =N∑i=1

∫R∗+

z(δi,at (z)N i,a(dt, dz) + δi,bt (z)N i,b(dt, dz)

)+

N∑i=1

qitV it

aP(t, νt)− aQ(t, νt)

2√νt

dt +N∑i=1

ξ

2qitV i

tdWνt .

22

Page 48: Algorithmic market making for options - london.pdf · Algorithmic trading with model uncertainty. SIAM Journal on Financial Mathematics, 2017. 9. Literature Figure 1: A nice book

Option market making:

optimization problem,

assumptions, and approximations

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Objective function

Objective function: risk-adjusted expectation

supδ∈A

E

VT −γ

2

∫ T

0

(N∑i=1

ξ

2qitV i

t

)2

dt

.for γ a risk aversion parameter and T a time horizon such that

T < mini Ti .

supδ∈A

E

∫ T

0

N∑i=1

∑j=a,b

∫R∗+

zδi,jt (z)Λi,j(δi,jt (z))1{qt−±jze i∈Q}µi,j(dz)

+ qitV i

t

aP(t, νt)− aQ(t, νt)

2√νt

dt − γξ2

8

∫ T

0

(N∑i=1

qitV it

)2

dt

,where ±b = + and ±a = −.

23

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Objective function

Objective function: risk-adjusted expectation

supδ∈A

E

VT −γ

2

∫ T

0

(N∑i=1

ξ

2qitV i

t

)2

dt

.for γ a risk aversion parameter and T a time horizon such that

T < mini Ti .

supδ∈A

E

∫ T

0

N∑i=1

∑j=a,b

∫R∗+

zδi,jt (z)Λi,j(δi,jt (z))1{qt−±jze i∈Q}µi,j(dz)

+ qitV i

t

aP(t, νt)− aQ(t, νt)

2√νt

dt − γξ2

8

∫ T

0

(N∑i=1

qitV it

)2

dt

,where ±b = + and ±a = −.

23

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Value function

Value function

u : (t,S , ν, q) ∈ [0,T ]× R+2

×Q 7→ u(t,S , ν, q)

given by

u(t, S , ν, q) = sup(δs )s∈[t,T ]∈At

E(t,S,ν,q)[∫ T

t

N∑i=1

((∑j=a,b

∫R∗+

zδi,js (z)Λi,j(δi,js (z))1{qs−±j zei∈Q}µ

i,j(dz))

+qisV i

saP(s, νs)− aQ(s, νs)

2√νs

)ds − γξ2

8

∫ T

t

( N∑i=1

qisV i

s

)2

ds

]

The problem is written in (space) dimension N + 2: it is a priori

untractable!

24

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Value function

Value function

u : (t,S , ν, q) ∈ [0,T ]× R+2

×Q 7→ u(t,S , ν, q)

given by

u(t, S , ν, q) = sup(δs )s∈[t,T ]∈At

E(t,S,ν,q)[∫ T

t

N∑i=1

((∑j=a,b

∫R∗+

zδi,js (z)Λi,j(δi,js (z))1{qs−±j zei∈Q}µ

i,j(dz))

+qisV i

saP(s, νs)− aQ(s, νs)

2√νs

)ds − γξ2

8

∫ T

t

( N∑i=1

qisV i

s

)2

ds

]

The problem is written in (space) dimension N + 2: it is a priori

untractable!

24

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Beating the curse of dimensionality

Assumption 1

We approximate the vega of each option over [0,T ] by its value at time

t = 0, namely V it = V i

0 =: V i , i = 1, . . . ,N.

Assumption 2

Authorized inventories correspond to vega risk limits:

Q =

{q ∈ RN

∣∣∣ N∑i=1

qiV i ∈ [−V,V]

}, with V ∈ R+∗.

25

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Beating the curse of dimensionality

Assumption 1

We approximate the vega of each option over [0,T ] by its value at time

t = 0, namely V it = V i

0 =: V i , i = 1, . . . ,N.

Assumption 2

Authorized inventories correspond to vega risk limits:

Q =

{q ∈ RN

∣∣∣ N∑i=1

qiV i ∈ [−V,V]

}, with V ∈ R+∗.

25

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Change of variables

Portfolio vega

Vπt :=N∑i=1

qitV i .

Optimal control problem

v (t, ν,Vπ) = sup(δs )s∈[t,T ]∈At

E(t,ν,Vπ)∫ T

t

N∑i=1

∑j=a,b

∫R∗+

zδi,js (z)Λi,j(δi,js (z))1|Vπs ±j zV i |≤Vµi,j(dz)

+Vπs

aP(s, νs)− aQ(s, νs)

2√νs

− γξ2

8Vπs 2

ds

.

26

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Change of variables

Portfolio vega

Vπt :=N∑i=1

qitV i .

Optimal control problem

v (t, ν,Vπ) = sup(δs )s∈[t,T ]∈At

E(t,ν,Vπ)∫ T

t

N∑i=1

∑j=a,b

∫R∗+

zδi,js (z)Λi,j(δi,js (z))1|Vπs ±j zV i |≤Vµi,j(dz)

+Vπs

aP(s, νs)− aQ(s, νs)

2√νs

− γξ2

8Vπs 2

ds

.

26

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Low-dimensional HJB equation

Low-dimensional HJB equation

The associated Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation is:

0 = ∂tv(t, ν,Vπ) + aP(t, ν)∂νv(t, ν,Vπ) +1

2νξ2∂2

ννv(t, ν,Vπ)

+Vπ aP(t, ν)− aQ(t, ν)

2√ν

− γξ2

8Vπ2

+N∑i=1

∑j=a,b

∫R∗+

z1|Vπ±j zV i |≤VHi,j

(v(t, ν,Vπ

)− v(t, ν,Vπ ±j zV i

)z

)µi,j(dz),

with final condition v(T , ν,Vπ) = 0, where

H i,j(p) := supδi,j≥δ∞

Λi,j(δi,j)(δi,j − p).

This equation in (space) dimension 2 can be solved numerically on a grid

with a Euler scheme and linear interpolation.

27

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Low-dimensional HJB equation

Low-dimensional HJB equation

The associated Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation is:

0 = ∂tv(t, ν,Vπ) + aP(t, ν)∂νv(t, ν,Vπ) +1

2νξ2∂2

ννv(t, ν,Vπ)

+Vπ aP(t, ν)− aQ(t, ν)

2√ν

− γξ2

8Vπ2

+N∑i=1

∑j=a,b

∫R∗+

z1|Vπ±j zV i |≤VHi,j

(v(t, ν,Vπ

)− v(t, ν,Vπ ±j zV i

)z

)µi,j(dz),

with final condition v(T , ν,Vπ) = 0, where

H i,j(p) := supδi,j≥δ∞

Λi,j(δi,j)(δi,j − p).

This equation in (space) dimension 2 can be solved numerically on a grid

with a Euler scheme and linear interpolation.

27

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Optimal quotes

Once the value function is known, the optimal mid-to-bid and ask-to-mid

associated with the N options, are given by the following formula:

Optimal quotes

δi,j∗t (z) = max

(δ∞,

(Λi,j)−1

(−H i,j′

(v(t, νt ,Vπt−

)− v(t, νt ,Vπt− ±j zV i

)z

))).

28

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Change of variables when aP = aQ

If aP = aQ, then v(t, ν,Vπ) = w(t,Vπ) where w is solution of the

simpler Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman:

0 = ∂tw(t,Vπ)− γξ2

8Vπ2

+N∑i=1

∑j=a,b

∫R∗+

z1|Vπ±j zV i |≤VHi,j

(w(t,Vπ

)− w

(t,Vπ ±j zV i

)z

)µi,j(dz),

with final condition w(T ,Vπ) = 0.

The problem is now in (space) dimension 1.

29

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Change of variables when aP = aQ

If aP = aQ, then v(t, ν,Vπ) = w(t,Vπ) where w is solution of the

simpler Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman:

0 = ∂tw(t,Vπ)− γξ2

8Vπ2

+N∑i=1

∑j=a,b

∫R∗+

z1|Vπ±j zV i |≤VHi,j

(w(t,Vπ

)− w

(t,Vπ ±j zV i

)z

)µi,j(dz),

with final condition w(T ,Vπ) = 0.

The problem is now in (space) dimension 1.

29

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Numerical results

Page 63: Algorithmic market making for options - london.pdf · Algorithmic trading with model uncertainty. SIAM Journal on Financial Mathematics, 2017. 9. Literature Figure 1: A nice book

Model parameters

. Stock price at time t = 0: S0 = 10 e.

. Instantaneous variance at time t = 0: ν0 = 0.0225 year−1.

. Heston model with aP(t, ν) = κP(θP − ν) where κP = 2 year−1 and

θP = 0.04 year−1, and aQ(t, ν) = κQ(θQ − ν) where κQ = 3 year−1

and θQ = 0.0225 year−1.

. Volatility of volatility: ξ = 0.2 year−1.

. Spot-variance correlation: ρ = −0.5.

30

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Options

Strikes and maturities

K = {8 e, 9 e, 10 e, 11 e, 12 e}

T = {1 year, 1.5 years, 2 years, 3 years}.

Intensities

Λi,j(δ) =λrequest

1 + eα+ β

V i δ, i ∈ {1, . . . ,N}, j = a, b.

where λrequest = 17640 = 252× 30 year−1, α = 0.7, and β = 150 year12 .

Size of transactions

z i = 5·105

Oi0

contracts: µi,b and µi,a are Dirac masses.

31

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Options

Strikes and maturities

K = {8 e, 9 e, 10 e, 11 e, 12 e}

T = {1 year, 1.5 years, 2 years, 3 years}.

Intensities

Λi,j(δ) =λrequest

1 + eα+ β

V i δ, i ∈ {1, . . . ,N}, j = a, b.

where λrequest = 17640 = 252× 30 year−1, α = 0.7, and β = 150 year12 .

Size of transactions

z i = 5·105

Oi0

contracts: µi,b and µi,a are Dirac masses.

31

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Options

Strikes and maturities

K = {8 e, 9 e, 10 e, 11 e, 12 e}

T = {1 year, 1.5 years, 2 years, 3 years}.

Intensities

Λi,j(δ) =λrequest

1 + eα+ β

V i δ, i ∈ {1, . . . ,N}, j = a, b.

where λrequest = 17640 = 252× 30 year−1, α = 0.7, and β = 150 year12 .

Size of transactions

z i = 5·105

Oi0

contracts: µi,b and µi,a are Dirac masses.

31

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Implied volatility surface

Time to Maturity

1.001.25

1.50 1.75 2.00 2.25 2.50 2.75 3.00

Strike

8.0 8.5 9.0 9.5 10.0 10.5 11.011.5

12.0

Implied Volatility

0.140

0.145

0.150

0.155

0.160

0.1400

0.1425

0.1450

0.1475

0.1500

0.1525

0.1550

Figure 3: Implied volatility surface associated with the above parameters.

32

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Value function

1.0 0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0Portfolio vega 1e7

100000

120000

140000

160000

180000

200000

Valu

e fu

nctio

n

Figure 4: Value function as a function of the portfolio vega for ν = 0.0225 –

γ = 10−3 e−1, t=0, T=0.2 days.33

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Convergence to stationary values

0.0000 0.0001 0.0002 0.0003 0.0004 0.0005 0.0006 0.0007 0.0008Time

0.02

0.00

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.10

Optim

al b

id q

uote

Figure 5: Optimal mid-to-bid quotes as a function of time for ν = 0.0225 –

γ = 10−3 e−1.34

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Optimal bid quotes

1.0 0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0Portfolio vega 1e7

0.0050

0.0025

0.0000

0.0025

0.0050

0.0075

0.0100

Optim

al m

id-to

-bid

div

ided

by

price

(K i,T i) = (8.0,1.0) -- price = 20.53, vega = 4.09(K i,T i) = (8.0,1.5) -- price = 21.17, vega = 4.67(K i,T i) = (8.0,2.0) -- price = 21.80, vega = 5.09(K i,T i) = (8.0,3.0) -- price = 22.60, vega = 4.82

Figure 6: Optimal mid-to-bid quotes divided by option price for K = 8 and

ν = 0.0225 – γ = 10−3 e−1.35

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Optimal bid quotes

1.0 0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0Portfolio vega 1e7

0.010

0.005

0.000

0.005

0.010

0.015

0.020

0.025

Optim

al m

id-to

-bid

div

ided

by

price

(K i,T i) = (9.0,1.0) -- price = 12.12, vega = 9.04(K i,T i) = (9.0,1.5) -- price = 13.18, vega = 8.31(K i,T i) = (9.0,2.0) -- price = 14.05, vega = 7.72(K i,T i) = (9.0,3.0) -- price = 15.67, vega = 6.60

Figure 7: Optimal mid-to-bid quotes divided by option price for K = 9 and

ν = 0.0225 – γ = 10−3 e−1.36

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Optimal bid quotes

1.0 0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0Portfolio vega 1e7

0.01

0.00

0.01

0.02

0.03

0.04

0.05

0.06

Optim

al m

id-to

-bid

div

ided

by

price

(K i,T i) = (10.0,1.0) -- price = 5.87, vega = 12.55(K i,T i) = (10.0,1.5) -- price = 7.27, vega = 10.83(K i,T i) = (10.0,2.0) -- price = 8.32, vega = 9.45(K i,T i) = (10.0,3.0) -- price = 10.24, vega = 7.64

Figure 8: Optimal mid-to-bid quotes divided by option price for K = 10 and

ν = 0.0225 – γ = 10−3 e−1.37

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Optimal bid quotes

1.0 0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0Portfolio vega 1e7

0.02

0.00

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.10

0.12

Optim

al m

id-to

-bid

div

ided

by

price

(K i,T i) = (11.0,1.0) -- price = 2.18, vega = 10.47(K i,T i) = (11.0,1.5) -- price = 3.36, vega = 9.83(K i,T i) = (11.0,2.0) -- price = 4.46, vega = 9.08(K i,T i) = (11.0,3.0) -- price = 6.22, vega = 7.51

Figure 9: Optimal mid-to-bid quotes divided by option price for K = 11 and

ν = 0.0225 – γ = 10−3 e−1.38

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Optimal bid quotes

1.0 0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0Portfolio vega 1e7

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

Optim

al m

id-to

-bid

div

ided

by

price

(K i,T i) = (12.0,1.0) -- price = 0.62, vega = 5.71(K i,T i) = (12.0,1.5) -- price = 1.32, vega = 6.63(K i,T i) = (12.0,2.0) -- price = 2.07, vega = 6.86(K i,T i) = (12.0,3.0) -- price = 3.66, vega = 6.68

Figure 10: Optimal mid-to-bid quotes divided by option price for K = 12 and

ν = 0.0225 – γ = 10−3 e−1.39

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Optimal bid quotes in terms of IV

1.0 0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0Portfolio vega 1e7

0.94

0.95

0.96

0.97

0.98

0.99

1.00

1.01

IV o

f opt

imal

bid

quo

te d

ivid

ed b

y in

itial

IV

(K i,T i) = (8.0,1.0) -- price = 20.53, vega = 4.09, IV = 0.1597(K i,T i) = (8.0,1.5) -- price = 21.17, vega = 4.67, IV = 0.1627(K i,T i) = (8.0,2.0) -- price = 21.80, vega = 5.09, IV = 0.1623(K i,T i) = (8.0,3.0) -- price = 22.60, vega = 4.82, IV = 0.1524

Figure 11: Optimal bid quotes in terms of implied volatility for K = 8 and

ν = 0.0225 – γ = 10−3 e−1.40

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Optimal bid quotes in terms of IV

1.0 0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0Portfolio vega 1e7

0.95

0.96

0.97

0.98

0.99

1.00

1.01

IV o

f opt

imal

bid

quo

te d

ivid

ed b

y in

itial

IV

(K i,T i) = (9.0,1.0) -- price = 12.12, vega = 9.04, IV = 0.1534(K i,T i) = (9.0,1.5) -- price = 13.18, vega = 8.31, IV = 0.1530(K i,T i) = (9.0,2.0) -- price = 14.05, vega = 7.72, IV = 0.1512(K i,T i) = (9.0,3.0) -- price = 15.67, vega = 6.60, IV = 0.1510

Figure 12: Optimal bid quotes in terms of implied volatility for K = 9 and

ν = 0.0225 – γ = 10−3 e−1.41

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Optimal bid quotes in terms of IV

1.0 0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0Portfolio vega 1e7

0.94

0.95

0.96

0.97

0.98

0.99

1.00

1.01

1.02

IV o

f opt

imal

bid

quo

te d

ivid

ed b

y in

itial

IV

(K i,T i) = (10.0,1.0) -- price = 5.87, vega = 12.55, IV = 0.1472(K i,T i) = (10.0,1.5) -- price = 7.27, vega = 10.83, IV = 0.1489(K i,T i) = (10.0,2.0) -- price = 8.32, vega = 9.45, IV = 0.1478(K i,T i) = (10.0,3.0) -- price = 10.24, vega = 7.64, IV = 0.1486

Figure 13: Optimal bid quotes in terms of implied volatility for K = 10 and

ν = 0.0225 – γ = 10−3 e−1.42

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Optimal bid quotes in terms of IV

1.0 0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0Portfolio vega 1e7

0.94

0.95

0.96

0.97

0.98

0.99

1.00

1.01

IV o

f opt

imal

bid

quo

te d

ivid

ed b

y in

itial

IV

(K i,T i) = (11.0,1.0) -- price = 2.18, vega = 10.47, IV = 0.1406(K i,T i) = (11.0,1.5) -- price = 3.36, vega = 9.83, IV = 0.1424(K i,T i) = (11.0,2.0) -- price = 4.46, vega = 9.08, IV = 0.1446(K i,T i) = (11.0,3.0) -- price = 6.22, vega = 7.51, IV = 0.1448

Figure 14: Optimal bid quotes in terms of implied volatility for K = 11 and

ν = 0.0225 – γ = 10−3 e−1.43

Page 79: Algorithmic market making for options - london.pdf · Algorithmic trading with model uncertainty. SIAM Journal on Financial Mathematics, 2017. 9. Literature Figure 1: A nice book

Optimal bid quotes in terms of IV

1.0 0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0Portfolio vega 1e7

0.94

0.95

0.96

0.97

0.98

0.99

1.00

1.01

IV o

f opt

imal

bid

quo

te d

ivid

ed b

y in

itial

IV

(K i,T i) = (12.0,1.0) -- price = 0.62, vega = 5.71, IV = 0.1357(K i,T i) = (12.0,1.5) -- price = 1.32, vega = 6.63, IV = 0.1380(K i,T i) = (12.0,2.0) -- price = 2.07, vega = 6.86, IV = 0.1396(K i,T i) = (12.0,3.0) -- price = 3.66, vega = 6.68, IV = 0.1435

Figure 15: Optimal bid quotes in terms of implied volatility for K = 12 and

ν = 0.0225 – γ = 10−3 e−1.44

Page 80: Algorithmic market making for options - london.pdf · Algorithmic trading with model uncertainty. SIAM Journal on Financial Mathematics, 2017. 9. Literature Figure 1: A nice book

Conclusive remarks

• Option market making is tractable using one- or two-factor

stochastic volatility models.

• It is possible to go beyond the constant-vega approximation using a

Taylor expansion around that approximation

→ see the appendix of our paper.

• A model with several underlying assets can easily be written. The

feasibility of numerical approximation with grids depend on the

global number of factors.

45

Page 81: Algorithmic market making for options - london.pdf · Algorithmic trading with model uncertainty. SIAM Journal on Financial Mathematics, 2017. 9. Literature Figure 1: A nice book

Conclusive remarks

• Option market making is tractable using one- or two-factor

stochastic volatility models.

• It is possible to go beyond the constant-vega approximation using a

Taylor expansion around that approximation

→ see the appendix of our paper.

• A model with several underlying assets can easily be written. The

feasibility of numerical approximation with grids depend on the

global number of factors.

45

Page 82: Algorithmic market making for options - london.pdf · Algorithmic trading with model uncertainty. SIAM Journal on Financial Mathematics, 2017. 9. Literature Figure 1: A nice book

Conclusive remarks

• Option market making is tractable using one- or two-factor

stochastic volatility models.

• It is possible to go beyond the constant-vega approximation using a

Taylor expansion around that approximation

→ see the appendix of our paper.

• A model with several underlying assets can easily be written. The

feasibility of numerical approximation with grids depend on the

global number of factors.

45

Page 83: Algorithmic market making for options - london.pdf · Algorithmic trading with model uncertainty. SIAM Journal on Financial Mathematics, 2017. 9. Literature Figure 1: A nice book

Questions

Thanks for your attention.

Do not hesitate to make remarks and ask questions.

46