ali Çarkoğlu public opinion dynamics towards june 2015 elections in turkey s. erdem aytaç 5 may...
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Ali Çarkoğlu
Public Opinion Dynamics Towards June 2015 Elections in Turkey
S. Erdem Aytaç5 May 2015
About the Study• Face to face interviews with 2201 participants from 49 provinces • Participants selected by means of random sampling from Address Based Population Registration
System (ABPRS) • Fieldwork carried out between 19 March and 26 April 2015 • Sponsored by the Open Society Foundation, Koç University and Ohio State University, School of
Communication
Turkey’s most important problems
Opinions about issues related to democracy
Freedom of speech
Do you think people can freely express their views without fear in Turkey?
All voters AKP voters Opposition voters0
20
40
60
80
16
33
7
22
32
15
38
20
49
18
8
26
Yes, certainly
Usually yes
There are limitations
Certainly no
Opinions about presidential system
Support for presidential system
A presidential system is a better system of government for Turkey than a parliamentary one.
All voters AKP voters CHP voters MHP voters HDP voters0
20
40
60
80
100
46
21
77
63
38
1319
611 14
27
43
1419
31
1418
37
17
Don’t agree Neither agree nor disagree Agree No opinion/No answer
Government systems in the world
Today most democracies have parliamentary systems of government rather than a presidential one as in the U.S.
0
20
40
60
80
15
22
29
15
27
Opinions on a new Constitution
Do you think that Turkey needs a new Constitution?
All voters AKP voters CHP voters MHP voters HDP voters0
20
40
60
80
100
60 59 60 59
80
20 19
28 31
6
20 22
12 1014
Yes No No opinion/No answer
Should the ruling and opposition parties reach a consensus for a new Constitution that Turkey needs?
All voters AKP voters CHP voters MHP voters HDP voters0
20
40
60
80
100
66
50
81 81
68
18
31
11 12 1316 19
8 7
19
They should reach a consensusThe majority party should be able to make a new Constitution as it pleasesNo opinion/No answer
Opinions on the Kurdish question/Peace process
The Kurdish issue can be resolved through the economic development of Southeastern and Eastern Anatolia rather than through the recognition of ethnic and cultural identities.
All voters AKP voters CHP voters MHP voters HDP voters0
20
40
60
80
100
13 10 14 1626
65 67 68
5359
Don't agree Neither agree nor disagree Agree
More authority/powers can be given to local administrations in order to resolve the Kurdish issue.
All voters AKP voters CHP voters MHP voters HDP voters0
20
40
60
80
100
3123
4351
11
41 43
3329
75
Don't agree Neither agree nor disagree Agree
Primary school education should be conducted in Turkish regardless of pupils’ ethnicity.
All voters AKP voters CHP voters MHP voters HDP voters0
20
40
60
80
100
12 8 5 6
55
77 7885
91
35
Don't agree Neither agree nor disagree Agree
A general amnesty applying to all armed and non-armed members of the PKK cannot be accepted, even if it would help to resolve the Kurdish issue.
All voters AKP voters CHP voters MHP voters HDP voters0
20
40
60
80
100
2518 20 19
75
55 5664
74
9
Don't agree Neither agree nor disagree Agree
The definition of citizenship in the Constitution should become more inclusive by embracing different ethnicities like Circassians, Arabs, and Kurds.
All voters AKP voters CHP voters MHP voters HDP voters0
20
40
60
80
100
2921
3847
9
42 4338
29
77
Don't agree Neither agree nor disagree Agree
Citizens should be able to receive service from public offices in their native languages in addition to Turkish.
All voters AKP voters CHP voters MHP voters HDP voters0
20
40
60
80
100
4032
51 55
7
36 39
26 27
77
Don't agree Neither agree nor disagree Agree
The ultimate goal of the Kurdish political movement in Turkey is to establish an independent state.
All voters AKP voters CHP voters MHP voters HDP voters0
20
40
60
80
100
13 10 146
39
61 5766
76
33
Don't agree Neither agree nor disagree AgreeNo opinion/No answer
Opinions about repression of devout religious people and secularists,
aspirations for sharia rule and threat to one’s way of life
Can Alevis freely worhip? 75% Yes, 14% No for 2015
Ideological shift, 1990-2015
Opinions about the leaders
Opinions about the economic situation
Perceptions on unemployment rate
What is the unemployment rate in Turkey nowadays?
All voters AKP voters Opposition voters0
10
20
30
40
50
60
18
26
14
36
18
44Less than 5%
About 5%
About 10%
About 15%
About 20%
Above 20%
No opinion/No answer
Perception on unemployment trends
Thinking about the last 12 months, do you think the unemployment rate has been increasing, decreasing, or hovering about the same level?
All voters AKP voters Opposition voters0
20
40
60
80
100
10
20
4
17
28
10
63
36
82
DecreasingAbout the same levelIncreasingNo opinion/No answer
Performance evaluations of the government
How successful or unsuccessfull, in your opinion, has the AKP government been in the past 4 years in the following areas?
Perceptions of corruption?Will the general elections be carried out in a fair manner?
Perceptions of Corruption
Perceptions of corruptionWhich of the below statements is closer to your opinion?
All voters AKP voters Opposition voters0
20
40
60
80
21
32
13
2327
2025
14
34
12
5
19
Very few public officials are involved in corruption
Less than half of the public of-ficials are involved in corrup-tion
The majority of public officials are involved in corruption
Almost all public officials are involved in corruption
No opinion/No answer
About the election
Do you think the approaching 7 June 2015 elections will be held in a fair manner?
All voters AKP voters Opposition voters0
20
40
60
80
23
3
40
20
8
2923 24
2025
59
6
Will not be fair at allWill not be quite fairWill be sort of fairWill be absolutely fair
About the election
After the votes has been cast in the upcoming election, do you believe that the votes will be counted in a fair manner?
All voters AKP voters Opposition voters0
20
40
60
80
22
4
38
24
11
34
2225
1723
53
6
Don't believe at allDon't quite believeInclined to believeBelieve absolutely
Thanks,
Questions??