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Aligning Climate Change and Sustainable Development Objectives: Perspective, Framework and Illustrations from India
Presentation for the Expert Workshop on
“Developing Visions for a Low-Carbon Society through Sustainable Development”
Tokyo, June 15, 2006
P.R. Shukla
Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India
Aligning Climate Change and Sustainable Development Objectives: Perspective, Framework and Illustrations from India
Aligning Climate Change and Sustainable Development Objectives: Perspective, Framework and Illustrations from India
Agenda
Development and Climate: The Perspective
Framework for Mainstreaming Climate Change in National Development
Illustrations from India
• Aligning Future Energy and Technology Transitions with Climate Goals
• Co-Benefits from Joint Market for CO2 and SO2 Mitigation
• Aligning Electricity Reforms for Low Carbon Content of Electricity
• Co-benefits of Cooperation for Energy-Water Markets in South-Asia
• Co-benefits of Sustainable Development and Mitigation of Climate
Change Risks to Long-life Assets like Infrastructures
Conclusions
Aligning Climate Change and Sustainable Development Objectives: Perspective, Framework and Illustrations from India
Development and Climate Perspective and Framework
Aligning Climate Change and Sustainable Development Objectives: Perspective, Framework and Illustrations from India
Why should “Development and Climate” actions be aligned?
� Climate change is a derivative problem of development
� Development is the key to mitigative and adaptive capacities
� Dealing with climate change exclusively is very expensive &
expected to cost several trillion dollars over this century
� Strategies for dealing with sustainable development and
climate change have many common elements, and aligning
these would reduce costs and minimize welfare losses
Aligning Climate Change and Sustainable Development Objectives: Perspective, Framework and Illustrations from India
Development and Climate: The Perspective
Conventional perspective
• Development is a threat to climate
• Climate change is a barrier to development
Development and Climate perspective
• Pathways to achieve sustainable development
goals are climate-friendly
• Sustainable Development is the driving force for
addressing climate change challenges
Climate Quality
Economic/social Indicator
Conventional Frontier
Climate QualityEconomic/social Indicator
Frontier under Development and Climate Perspective
Aligning Climate Change and Sustainable Development Objectives: Perspective, Framework and Illustrations from India
Development and Climate: Shifting the Frontier
Shifting development and climate “frontier” though:
• Innovations (technology, institutions)
• International and regional cooperation
• Targeted technology and investment flows
• Aligning stakeholder interests
• Focusing on inputs rather than outputs (conduct vs.results)
National Development Targets
Climate Quality
Economic/social Indicator
Climate Quality
Econom
ic/s
ocia
l In
dic
ato
r
Climate Goal
Technology & Institutional Innovations;
Co-benefits
Aligning Climate Change and Sustainable Development Objectives: Perspective, Framework and Illustrations from India
Development and Climate: Framework
Approach
• Shift baseline
• Multiple dividends
• Link local & global; short &
long-term
400
600
800
1000
1960 1970 1980 1990
kgC/to
e
China
India
USA
Japan
France
2000
Decarbonization of Primary Energy
??
Methodology for assessment
• Scenarios (key drivers, development policies)
• Processes (cooperation, learning)
• Institutions (rule of law, governance)
• Resources (endowments, human capital, finance)
Aligning Climate Change and Sustainable Development Objectives: Perspective, Framework and Illustrations from India
• Enhanced sink capacity, reduced
GHG and local emissions; lower
fossil imports; reduced pressure on
land, resources and ecosystems
• Higher adaptive capacity to from
enhanced supply of water, health &
education in rural areas
• Increase in forest cover to 25% by 2007 and
33% by 2012 (from 23% in 2001)
• Sustained access to potable drinking water
to all villages by 2007
• Electrify 80,000 additional villages by 2012
via decentralized sources
• Cleaning of all major polluted rivers by
2007 and other notified stretches by 2012
Goal 7: Ensure environmental
sustainability
Targets: Integrate SD principles in country
policies/ programs to reverse loss of
environmental resources
Target: Halve by 2015 the proportion of
people without sustainable access to safe
drinking water
• Income effect would enhance
choices for cleaner fuels and
adaptive capacity
• Reduce GHG Emissions due to
lower population
• Double the per capita income by 2012
• Reduce poverty ratio by 15% by 2012
• Contain population growth to 16.2%
between 2001-2011
Goal 1: Eradicate extreme poverty and
hunger
Targets: Halve, between 1990 and 2015,
the proportion of people with income
below $1 a day and those who suffer from
hunger
Interface with Climate ChangeIndia’s National plan targetsMDG and global targets
MDG, India’s National Targets and Climate Change
Mainstreaming Climate Change in National Development
Climate policies and actions to be driven by:• National development targets
• Agreed goals under extant international agreements
Aligning Climate Change and Sustainable Development Objectives: Perspective, Framework and Illustrations from India
Illustrations from India
• Aligning Future Energy and Technology Transitions with Climate Goals
• Co-Benefits from Joint Market for CO2 and SO2 Mitigation
• Aligning Electricity Reforms for Low Carbon Content of Electricity
• Co-benefits of Cooperation for Energy-Water Markets in South-Asia
• Co-benefits of Sustainable Development and Mitigation of Climate Change
Risks to Long-life Assets like Infrastructures
Aligning Climate Change and Sustainable Development Objectives: Perspective, Framework and Illustrations from India
Energy Transitions: How they matte to Low Carbon Future?
Perc
en
tag
e o
f P
rim
ary
En
erg
y C
on
su
mp
tio
n
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
1952 1960 1970 1980 1990 2001
TraditionalBiomass
Hydro
Coal
Oil
GasNuclear
How to transit to Modern Biomass?
Food Security?
Domestic Resource: +ve
Direct Employment: +ve
Energy Security: -ve
Foreign Exchange: -ve
Geopolitical Risk: High
Foreign Exchange: -ve
Fuel Supply?
Waste disposal?
Safety?
Regional water disputes?
Indirect Benefits
En. Security: +Ve
Aligning Climate Change and Sustainable Development Objectives: Perspective, Framework and Illustrations from India
Bio-diesel: Multiple Dividends
• Rural Employment:Large scale employment potential in Jatropha plantation, seed collection and extraction
• Farm Income (from waste lands):Net income Rs. 12000/Ha/year
• Energy SecurityImported fossil oil is replaced
• EnvironmentNeutral carbon emissions, Rehabilitates waste land
Rural Employment
Oil Extraction Plant
Jatropha Plantation in India
Aligning Climate Change and Sustainable Development Objectives: Perspective, Framework and Illustrations from India
Technologies in Low Carbon Scenarios: Medium-Term (2050)
IA2
IB1
IA1
750
2000
1500
2250
3000
3750
4500
2020 2050
CO
2 E
mis
sio
ns
(Mil
lion
Ton)
20402010 2030
Frozen Technology
Conventional Technology Path: Includes significant endogenous technological change
Renewable Energy Technologies
Push for renewable energy & recycling
Advanced car pooling, Shared assets
Sustainable habitats, Reforestation
Dematerialization, Community institutions
High speed trains, Swap of transport by IT
Synfuels, Next-Gen Nuclear (Thorium)
Energy efficient appliances/ infrastructure
Coal liquid, IGCC, Hydrogen from gas
Fuel cell vehicles, Pipeline networks
Advanced materials, Nanotechnology
Sustainable Development Scenario
Globalization/Market Efficiency Scenario
Aligning Climate Change and Sustainable Development Objectives: Perspective, Framework and Illustrations from India
Technologies in Low Carbon Scenarios: Long-term (2100)
Sustainable Development Scenario
Globalization/Market Efficiency Scenario
IA2
IB1
2100
750
2000
1500
2250
3000
3750
4500
5250
6000
2020 2060
6750
2040 2080
IA1
Frozen Technology
CO
2 E
mis
sio
ns
(Mil
lion
Ton)
Synfuels, Gas hydrates, Nuclear Fusion
IT controlled buildings/appliances
Advanced global shipping networks
Fuel cell vehicles, High air transport share
Global R&D, Intensive agriculture
Conventional Technology Paths: Includes significant endogenous technological change
Renewable Energy Technologies
Decentralized & renewable technologies
Lifestyle changes, Eco-friendly choices
Sustainable habitats, Service Pools
Multi-purpose water systems
Integrated resources/technology planning
Sustainable agriculture/forestry/land-use
Aligning Climate Change and Sustainable Development Objectives: Perspective, Framework and Illustrations from India
Stabilization Induced Technological Change – IA2 Scenario550 ppmv CO2 Stabilization in India
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095
Carbon Capture
Energy Efficiency
Wind
Solar
Biomass
Hydro
Nuclear
Gas
Oil
India 550 ppmv emission
550 PPMV550 PPMV 400
800
1200
2000
1600
Ton of C
Aligning Climate Change and Sustainable Development Objectives: Perspective, Framework and Illustrations from India
Illustrations from India
• Aligning Future Energy and Technology Transitions with Climate Goals
• Co-Benefits from Joint Market for CO2 and SO2 Mitigation
• Aligning Electricity Reforms for Low Carbon Content of Electricity
• Co-benefits of Cooperation for Energy-Water Markets in South-Asia
• Co-benefits of Sustainable Development and Mitigation of Climate Change
Risks to Long-life Assets like Infrastructures
Aligning Climate Change and Sustainable Development Objectives: Perspective, Framework and Illustrations from India
LPS Locations
Year: 2000 Year: 2030
Aligning Climate Change and Sustainable Development Objectives: Perspective, Framework and Illustrations from India
Co-Benefits: Joint SO2 and CO2 Mitigation
Joint mitigation costs $400
Million less
Joint Mitigation: CO2
mitigation @ $5/ton
& same SO2
target
Little carbon mitigationSO2
mitigation alone
Co-benefitsMitigation Regime
Joint Mitigation (Period 2005-2030)
SO2 EmissionsM
illi
on
To
n S
O2
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
1995 2005 2015 2025 2035
7
Frozen SO2 Control Policies
A2 Scenario Emission
Carbon Emissions
0
200
400
600
800
1995 2005 2015 2025 2035
Mil
lio
n T
on
of
Ca
rbo
n
A2 Scenario Emissions
With Carbon Price @ $5/ton of CO2
With BAU SO2 Control Policies
Aligning Climate Change and Sustainable Development Objectives: Perspective, Framework and Illustrations from India
Illustrations from India
• Aligning Future Energy and Technology Transitions with Climate Goals
• Co-Benefits from Joint Market for CO2 and SO2 Mitigation
• Aligning Electricity Reforms for Low Carbon Content of Electricity
• Co-benefits of Cooperation for Energy-Water Markets in South-Asia
• Co-benefits of Sustainable Development and Mitigation of Climate Change
Risks to Long-life Assets like Infrastructures
Aligning Climate Change and Sustainable Development Objectives: Perspective, Framework and Illustrations from India
Food–Water–Energy–Environment Nexus
Food
Agriculture uses
Ground Water for
Irrigation
WaterWater use depends
on crop pattern,
cultivation practices,
electricity supply etc
Environment
GHG emissions
depend on Energy/
Technology Mix
EnergyEnergy use depends on
pump efficiency, water
depth and Agriculture
practices
Electricity tariff reforms, water pricing reforms, energy efficiency programs (e.g.
substitution of inefficient irrigation pump-sets) decentralized energy programs (e.g.
micro-hydro development) have made this nexus more sustainable
Aligning Climate Change and Sustainable Development Objectives: Perspective, Framework and Illustrations from India
Rainfall, Inflows and Hydro Electricity GenerationState of Andhra Pradesh
0
800
1600
2400
3200
4000
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000
Infl
ow
(M
TC
)
0
200
400
600
800
1000
Rain
fall (m
m)Water Inflow
Rainfall in Catchments Area
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
1980 1984 1988 1992 2000
Hyd
ro E
lect
rici
ty G
ener
ati
on
(T
Wh
)
1996
Rainfall and Water Inflows Hydro Electricity Generation
Aligning Climate Change and Sustainable Development Objectives: Perspective, Framework and Illustrations from India
Rainfall, Inflows and Hydro Electricity GenerationState of Andhra Pradesh
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000
% S
hare
of
Hyd
ro E
lect
rici
ty G
ener
ati
on
Share of Hydro Carbon Emissions Baseline of Andhra Pradesh
0.0
0.5
0.75
1.0
1.5
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000k
g (
Carb
on
Dio
xid
e)/K
Wh
1980-1990Pre Reforms Period
1990-2001 Reforms Period
Coal
Fossil Electricity
Fossil Electricity
Total Electricity Total Electricity
Gas
1.25
0.25
Aligning Climate Change and Sustainable Development Objectives: Perspective, Framework and Illustrations from India
0.031050 Million TonSO2
0.98359Total
0.08285.1 Billion TonCO2 Equiv.
0.8732160 Exa JouleEnergy
% GDP$ BillionBenefit (Saving) Cumulative
from 2010 to 2030
South-Asia Energy Cooperation
Spillover Benefits:
• 16 MW additional Hydropower
• Flood control
• Lower energy prices would enhance competitiveness of regional industries
Integrated South-Asia Energy Market
Aligning Climate Change and Sustainable Development Objectives: Perspective, Framework and Illustrations from India
Illustrations from India
• Aligning Future Energy and Technology Transitions with Climate Goals
• Co-Benefits from Joint Market for CO2 and SO2 Mitigation
• Aligning Electricity Reforms for Low Carbon Content of Electricity
• Co-benefits of Cooperation for Energy-Water Markets in South-Asia
• Co-benefits of Sustainable Development and Mitigation of Climate Change
Risks to Long-life Assets like Infrastructures
Aligning Climate Change and Sustainable Development Objectives: Perspective, Framework and Illustrations from India
Carbon Dioxide Emissions Saved by Electricity Reforms
Cumulative CO2 not Emitted:
140 million ton
1.10
0.90
0.70
0.50
1994 20001992 19961990 1998
Fossil Electricity w/o Reforms
Fossil Electricity with Reforms
Total Electricity w/o Reforms
Total Electricity with Reforms
Kg (
Carb
on
Dio
xid
e) /
KW
h
2001
Baselines of Carbon Content of Electricity
Aligning Climate Change and Sustainable Development Objectives: Perspective, Framework and Illustrations from India
Illustrations from India
• Aligning Future Energy and Technology Transitions with Climate Goals
• Co-Benefits from Joint Market for CO2 and SO2 Mitigation
• Aligning Electricity Reforms for Low Carbon Content of Electricity
• Co-benefits of Cooperation for Energy-Water Markets in South-Asia
• Co-benefits of Sustainable Development and Mitigation of Climate Change Risks to Long-life Assets like Infrastructures
Aligning Climate Change and Sustainable Development Objectives: Perspective, Framework and Illustrations from India
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
Rep
air a
nd M
ain
tenance
Cost
s
Cost with adverse
Climate Change
Conventional
Bath-Tub Curve
Cost with adverse Climate
Change and Deforestation
Maintenance Cost Curve
More number of days with >200
mm rainfall Very high number of days with >200 mm
rainfall
Less numberof days with >200
mm rainfall
Present Climate
Future ClimatePro
bab
ilit
y o
f O
ccu
rren
ce
Light and
spread-over rain
Heavy and
concentrated rainNumber of days with
> 200mm rainfall
Increase in mean and variability due to Climate
Change
Increase in Climate Intensity and Variability
Monsoon Rainfall (2050)
Sustainable Development & Climate: Impacts on Infrastructure
Aligning Climate Change and Sustainable Development Objectives: Perspective, Framework and Illustrations from India
Conclusions: Aligning Development and Climate
Transiting to Low Carbon Society– Global development along high carbon path is untenable– Stand-alone decarbonization is costly– Most sustainable development actions are climate friendly
– Mainstreaming climate change in development actions reduces welfare losses
Low Carbon Society and Developing Countries– Developing countries will have low per capita emissions throughout the
century, but their emissions intensities will be high
– Significant opportunities exist in developing countries for gaining co-benefits– Developing Countries have opportunities to decide the development pathway– Mitigation and adaptation cost for any stabilization scenario is lower where
development pathway follow sustainability goals
Low Carbon Society and India – India’s population throughout the century will remain around a sixth of global
population
– India’s development along the sustainable path is vital for global sustainability
– Stabilization regime would induce significant mitigation and adaptation in India; altering energy system and imposing significant costs
– India’s Low Carbon Transition would deliver sizable global benefits