aligning the world bank public expenditure review with caadp_2009
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"Aligning the World Bank Public Expenditure Review with CAADP" presentation by Pius Chilonda at the NEPAD, IFPRI, AGRA and World Bank Meeting to Align Efforts on Agricultural Policy and Knowledge Systems, Dakar, Senegal, January 6-7, 2009.TRANSCRIPT
Aligning the World Bank Public
Expenditure Review with CAADP
Pius Chilonda
Sub-Regional Coordinator, ReSAKSS-SA
6 January 2009, Dakar, Senegal
Strategic Analysis and Knowledge Support System for Southern Africa (SAKSS-SA)
Supporting CAADP through……
• Identification and assessment of strategic
options for accelerating agricultural growth
and development in Southern Africa
• Supports the monitoring of both regional
(CAADP, SADC RISDP) and national
agricultural growth targets
Strategic Analysis and Knowledge Support System for Southern Africa (SAKSS-SA)
Focus areas
• Increasing agricultural growth to reach an average annual growth rate of 6% as envisioned by CAADP/SADC RISDP as necessary for attaining overall economic growth, poverty reduction and food security.
• Enhancing the contribution of agriculture to the achievement of the MDG 1 by 2015
• Assessing of policy and investment alternatives that will yield the highest payoff given commitments of increasing national agricultural budgets (10% Maputo Declaration 2003)
Strategic Analysis and Knowledge Support System for Southern Africa (SAKSS-SA)
Why agriculture public expenditure
reviews?• 2003: African Union HSG Summit in Maputo,
Mozambique, adopted CAADP as a framework for contributing to the attainment of food security and poverty reduction goals
• Further adopted decision to commit at least 10% of the annual national budget to agric. & rural development by 2008
• AU/NEPAD mandated to monitor & report to the AU summit the progress in complying with Maputo decision
• AU/NEPAD/FAO definition used as a basis (COFOG)
Strategic Analysis and Knowledge Support System for Southern Africa (SAKSS-SA)
Research questions
• What is the progress towards the 10% Maputo declaration
• Since national governments have committed to increasing national budgets to agriculture…– What sorts of investments will maximize growth?
– What investments or policy changes will lead to poverty reduction?
– What level of budget is needed to achieve CAADP, MDG goals?
Strategic Analysis and Knowledge Support System for Southern Africa (SAKSS-SA)
Efforts on AgPER to date
• Technical meeting on
Monitoring Trends
and Spatial Analysis
of Public Spending in
Agriculture, May 2007
• Various studies by
IFPRI (Fan et al)
Strategic Analysis and Knowledge Support System for Southern Africa (SAKSS-SA)
Methodological issues around
collecting data on public spending
• How can the information
on government spending
and allocation in
agriculture be assembled
and monitored over time?
• How can we assess the
impact of agricultural
spending on growth and
poverty reduction?
• What is the minimum set
of information needed?
Strategic Analysis and Knowledge Support System for Southern Africa (SAKSS-SA)
Rational and approaches of spatial
analysis
• Can we map public targeting of public spending
in agriculture?
What approaches should be used for spatial
analysis
How can we relate geographical distribution of
public spending in agriculture to underlying
socio-economic and bio-physical factors?
poverty, malnutrition, population density, access to
markets and services, price and production risk,
agricultural potential, etc
Strategic Analysis and Knowledge Support System for Southern Africa (SAKSS-SA)
Activities
• Developed generic terms of reference for the collecting data on AgPER
• Collecting data on AgPER on budgetary allocation to agriculture; data feeds into the AU/NEPAD/FAO work
• Detailed country case studies (Malawi, Mozambique and Zambia)
• Analysis of AgPER data and using it for dialogue at national and regional levels
• This is seen as ongoing activity
Strategic Analysis and Knowledge Support System for Southern Africa (SAKSS-SA)
Results
Strategic Analysis and Knowledge Support System for Southern Africa (SAKSS-SA)
Countries with Less than 5% National Expenditure on Agiculture
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
8.00
Botsw
ana
Burun
di
Cam
eroo
n
Cen
tral A
f. Rep
Con
go
Con
go, D
R
Cot
e d'
Ivoi
re
Djib
outi
Kenya
Leso
tho
Libe
ria
Mau
ritius
Nam
ibia
Rwan
da
Seych
elle
s
Sierra
Leo
ne
Togo
Countries
% o
f N
atio
nal E
xpenditu
re
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Strategic Analysis and Knowledge Support System for Southern Africa (SAKSS-SA)
Figure: Countries with 5% to 10% National Expenditure on
Agriculture
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
Benin
Cha
d
Mau
ritan
ia
Nig
eria
Sao T
& P
Swaz
iland
Uga
nda
Zambi
a
Countries
% N
ati
on
al E
xp
en
dit
ure
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Strategic Analysis and Knowledge Support System for Southern Africa (SAKSS-SA)
Figure: Countries with more than 10% National Expenditure on Agriculture
0.00
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
25.00
Eth
iopia
Mad
aga
scar
Malaw
iMali
Niger
Sen
egal
Zim
bab
we
Countries
% N
ati
on
al E
xp
en
dit
ure
on
Ag
ricu
ltu
re
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Strategic Analysis and Knowledge Support System for Southern Africa (SAKSS-SA)
Figure: Public Spending on Agriculture in SADC Countries
0.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
10.00
12.00
14.00
16.00
18.00
20.00
Botsw
ana
Con
go, D
R
Leso
tho
Mal
awi
Mau
ritius
Nam
ibia
Swaz
iland
Zambi
a
Zimbab
we
Countries
% N
ati
on
al E
xp
en
dit
ure
on
Ag
ricu
ltu
re
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Strategic Analysis and Knowledge Support System for Southern Africa (SAKSS-SA)
Percentage of agriculture budgets
in national budgets- Malawi
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18 1
99
9/2
00
0
20
00
/01
20
01
/02
20
02
/03
20
03
/04
20
04
/05
20
05
/06
20
06
/07
Perc
en
tag
e (
%)
Strategic Analysis and Knowledge Support System for Southern Africa (SAKSS-SA)
Pre and Post Maputo declaration Expenditure
Agriculture Spending growth rates
0
50
100
150
200
250
Livestock/Crops Forestry
Perc
en
tag
e (
%)
% growth (1999/00-2003/04)
% growth (2003/04-2006/07)
Strategic Analysis and Knowledge Support System for Southern Africa (SAKSS-SA)
Sub-sector contribution in total
agriculture spending - Malawi
0
20
40
60
80
100
Pe
rce
nta
ge
(%
)
99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07
Fisheries Forestry Livestock & crops
Strategic Analysis and Knowledge Support System for Southern Africa (SAKSS-SA)
Composition of Agricultural
Spending: The Case of Zambia
Personnel Emoluments
20%
Operational funds
11%
Irrigation Development
3%
Infrastructure
2%
Food Security Pack &
EDRP
12%
Food Reserve Agency
Maize Marketing
15%
Fertilizer Support Program
37%Source: ReSAKSS-SA, MACO (Zambia), MSU (Zambia)
Example of Zambia’s 2005 Budget
Strategic Analysis and Knowledge Support System for Southern Africa (SAKSS-SA)
Northern
Western
Central
Southern
Eastern
North western
Luapula
Lusaka
Copperbelt
ZMK 48,006
ZMK 51,736
ZMK 65,115
ZMK 58,371
ZMK122,720
ZMK 35,170
ZMK 47,369
ZMK120,595
ZMK129,528
ZMK per Agric. HH
25000 - 50000
50000 - 75000
> 75000
Provincial Bounderies
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 Kilometers
N
Kwacha Spent Per Rural Agricultural Household on EXTENSION
Strategic Analysis and Knowledge Support System for Southern Africa (SAKSS-SA)
Northern
Western
Central
Southern
Eastern
North western
Luapula
Lusaka
Copperbelt
ZMK 4,526
ZMK 5,373
ZMK 9,160
ZMK 9,868
ZMK 4,524
ZMK 4,818
ZMK 6,103
ZMK 27,861
ZMK 28,648ZMK per Agric. HH
< 5,000
5,000 - 10,000
10,000 - 15,000
> 15,000
Provincial Bounderies
0 90 180 270 360 450 540 Kilometers
N
Kwacha Spent Per Rural Agricultural Household on FORESTRY
Strategic Analysis and Knowledge Support System for Southern Africa (SAKSS-SA)
Northern
Western
Central
Southern
Eastern
North western
Luapula
Lusaka
Copperbelt
ZMK 1,855
ZMK 5,670
ZMK 7,390
ZMK 5,166
ZMK 10,370
ZMK 1,790
ZMK 6,934
ZMK 5,329
ZMK 12,713
ZMK per Agric. HH
< 5,000
5,000 - 10,000
10,000 - 15,000
Provincial Bounderies
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 Kilometers
N
Kwacha Spent Per Rural Agricultural Household on RESETTLEMENT
Strategic Analysis and Knowledge Support System for Southern Africa (SAKSS-SA)
Northern
Western
Central
Southern
Eastern
North western
Luapula
Lusaka
Copperbelt
ZMK135,056
ZMK 37,708
ZMK 87,233
ZMK188,360
ZMK270,878
ZMK166,029
ZMK 66,588
ZMK449,389
ZMK505,809ZMK per Agric. HH
< 100.000
100,000 - 200,000
200,000 - 300,000
> 300,000
Provincial Bounderies
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 Kilometers
N
Kwacha Spent Per Rural Agricultural Household on FSP
Strategic Analysis and Knowledge Support System for Southern Africa (SAKSS-SA)
Northern
Western
Central
Southern
Eastern
North western
Luapula
Lusaka
Copperbelt
ZMK276,476
ZMK 27,735
ZMK126,999
ZMK480,058
ZMK449,810
ZMK353,198
ZMK 77,951
ZMK196,297
ZMK424,263ZMK per Agric. HH
< 100.000
100,000 - 200,000
200,000 - 300,000
> 300,000
Provincial Bounderies
0 90 180 270 360 450 540 Kilometers
N
Kwacha Spent Per Rural Agricultural Household on FRA
Strategic Analysis and Knowledge Support System for Southern Africa (SAKSS-SA)
Northern
Western
Central
Southern
Eastern
North western
Luapula
Lusaka
Copperbelt
ZMK465,929
ZMK133,540
ZMK295,898
ZMK752,480
ZMK858,029
ZMK564,646
ZMK207,950
ZMK810,441
ZMK1,103,398TOTAL ZMK per Agric. HH
< 250,000250,000 - 500,000
500,000 - 750,000
> 750,000
Provincial Bounderies
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 Kilometers
N
TOTAL Kwacha Spent Per Rural Agricultural Household
Strategic Analysis and Knowledge Support System for Southern Africa (SAKSS-SA)
Northern
Western
Central
Southern
Eastern
North western
Luapula
Lusaka
Copperbelt
110 Kg/ha
13 Kg/ha
54 Kg/ha
51 Kg/ha
47 Kg/ha
115 Kg/ha
122 Kg/ha
54 Kg/ha
122 Kg/haFertilizer (Kg/Ha of Maize Planted)
< 25 Kg/ha
25 - 50 Kg/ha
> 50 - 100 Kg/ha
> 100 Kg/ha
Provincial Bounderies
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 Kilometers
N
FSP Fertilizer in Kg/Ha of Maize Planted
Strategic Analysis and Knowledge Support System for Southern Africa (SAKSS-SA)
Northern
Western
Central
Southern
Eastern
North western
Luapula
Lusaka
Copperbelt
78 %
84 %
72 %
73 %
79 %
42 %
29 %
73 %
72 %
% Poverty Levels
< 50 %
50 - 75 %
> 75 - 80 %
> 80 %
Provincial Bounderies
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 Kilometers
N
Incidence of Poverty Levels in 2006
Strategic Analysis and Knowledge Support System for Southern Africa (SAKSS-SA)
Northern
Western
Central
Southern
Eastern
North western
Luapula
Lusaka
Copperbelt
-4 %
-6 %
-3 %
0 %
-11 %
-35 %
-45 %
-6 %
-6 %
% Change in Poverty Levels
> 30 % Decrease
10-30 % Decrease
5- <10 % Decrease
< 5 % Decrease
No Change
Provincial Bounderies
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 Kilometers
N
Percent (%) Change in the Incidence of Poverty Levels Between
1998 and 2006
Strategic Analysis and Knowledge Support System for Southern Africa (SAKSS-SA)
ReSAKSS collaboration with World
Bank –The case of Mozambique (1)
• Research questions:
– Are the levels and trends of public expenditure in agriculture conducive of the GoM meeting its strategic goals for the sector (incl. under PARPA)? Are they aligned with the priorities defined by the sector (strategic objectives, MTEF, PARPA, …)?
– Based on the AU/NEPAD definition of agriculture, what is the overall share of agriculture in total public expenditures? How is Mozambique progressing towards its NEPAD commitments (Maputo Agreement)?
– Is the spatial allocation of overall expenditure in agriculture aligned with sector strategic targets and objectives?
Strategic Analysis and Knowledge Support System for Southern Africa (SAKSS-SA)
ReSAKSS collaboration with World
Bank –The case of Mozambique (2)
• Research questions:
– Has the funding in agriculture led to the expected growth in the sector and to rural poverty reduction?
– Are the budget preparation process and institutional arrangements for the flow of funds conducive of timely a disbursement of public investment that takes seasonality of agriculture into account?
– What is the nature of private investment in agriculture and what trends have evolved over the past years?
– How does Mozambique compare with other countries in Africa on trends, levels, and quality of public spending in agriculture?
Strategic Analysis and Knowledge Support System for Southern Africa (SAKSS-SA)
Potential areas for collaboration
• Module 1 Core diagnostics; basic foundation
• Module 2 Forward looking; MTEF
• Module 3 Public expenditure tracking
• Module 4 Sub-sector impact evaluation
• Module 5 Core analysis – linking agriculture expenditure and agricultural growth