all i know about the market i learn from barron ’ s don gimpel july 2011

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ALL I KNOW ABOUT THE ALL I KNOW ABOUT THE MARKET I LEARN FROM MARKET I LEARN FROM BARRON’S BARRON’S Don Gimpel July 2011

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Page 1: ALL I KNOW ABOUT THE MARKET I LEARN FROM BARRON ’ S Don Gimpel July 2011

ALL I KNOW ABOUT THE ALL I KNOW ABOUT THE MARKET I LEARN FROM MARKET I LEARN FROM

BARRON’SBARRON’S

Don Gimpel

July 2011

Page 2: ALL I KNOW ABOUT THE MARKET I LEARN FROM BARRON ’ S Don Gimpel July 2011

Consensus EstimatesConsensus Estimates

Page 3: ALL I KNOW ABOUT THE MARKET I LEARN FROM BARRON ’ S Don Gimpel July 2011

The best Index of them all!The best Index of them all!

Page 4: ALL I KNOW ABOUT THE MARKET I LEARN FROM BARRON ’ S Don Gimpel July 2011

If you have a good trading system:If you have a good trading system:

Page 5: ALL I KNOW ABOUT THE MARKET I LEARN FROM BARRON ’ S Don Gimpel July 2011

S&P 500 Index P/Es & YIELDSS&P 500 Index P/Es & YIELDS

Page 6: ALL I KNOW ABOUT THE MARKET I LEARN FROM BARRON ’ S Don Gimpel July 2011

How Investors feel and why it doesn’t matterHow Investors feel and why it doesn’t matter

Page 7: ALL I KNOW ABOUT THE MARKET I LEARN FROM BARRON ’ S Don Gimpel July 2011

Consumer confidence:Consumer confidence:

Page 8: ALL I KNOW ABOUT THE MARKET I LEARN FROM BARRON ’ S Don Gimpel July 2011

Looking for an inversion … why?Looking for an inversion … why?

Page 9: ALL I KNOW ABOUT THE MARKET I LEARN FROM BARRON ’ S Don Gimpel July 2011

CBOE Put/Call Ratio:CBOE Put/Call Ratio:

Page 10: ALL I KNOW ABOUT THE MARKET I LEARN FROM BARRON ’ S Don Gimpel July 2011

The Wonderful PMI:The Wonderful PMI:

Page 11: ALL I KNOW ABOUT THE MARKET I LEARN FROM BARRON ’ S Don Gimpel July 2011

What’s with manufacturing?What’s with manufacturing?

Page 12: ALL I KNOW ABOUT THE MARKET I LEARN FROM BARRON ’ S Don Gimpel July 2011

Where can you find it?Where can you find it?

This is the Institute of Supply Management Report (ISM) and it can be found at:

http://www.ism.ws/ISMReport/MfgROB.cfm?nav/ItemNumber-12942

It’s designed to be easy to read and understand and it reports on the status of manufacturing.

Page 13: ALL I KNOW ABOUT THE MARKET I LEARN FROM BARRON ’ S Don Gimpel July 2011

Employment:Employment:

Page 14: ALL I KNOW ABOUT THE MARKET I LEARN FROM BARRON ’ S Don Gimpel July 2011

Inflation and Capacity Utilization:Inflation and Capacity Utilization:

Page 15: ALL I KNOW ABOUT THE MARKET I LEARN FROM BARRON ’ S Don Gimpel July 2011

Inflation:Inflation:

Page 16: ALL I KNOW ABOUT THE MARKET I LEARN FROM BARRON ’ S Don Gimpel July 2011

What has this to do with gold?What has this to do with gold?

Page 17: ALL I KNOW ABOUT THE MARKET I LEARN FROM BARRON ’ S Don Gimpel July 2011

Where can it be found?Where can it be found?

You can find the output per hour at:

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/ppod2t02.htm

Page 18: ALL I KNOW ABOUT THE MARKET I LEARN FROM BARRON ’ S Don Gimpel July 2011

What about trade?What about trade?

Page 19: ALL I KNOW ABOUT THE MARKET I LEARN FROM BARRON ’ S Don Gimpel July 2011

The Housing Indicator:The Housing Indicator:

Page 20: ALL I KNOW ABOUT THE MARKET I LEARN FROM BARRON ’ S Don Gimpel July 2011

Something useful for you:Something useful for you:

Page 21: ALL I KNOW ABOUT THE MARKET I LEARN FROM BARRON ’ S Don Gimpel July 2011

What does the Fed think?What does the Fed think?

Page 22: ALL I KNOW ABOUT THE MARKET I LEARN FROM BARRON ’ S Don Gimpel July 2011

WolframAlpha - a treasure:WolframAlpha - a treasure:

Page 23: ALL I KNOW ABOUT THE MARKET I LEARN FROM BARRON ’ S Don Gimpel July 2011

Ranking opportunities:Ranking opportunities:

Page 24: ALL I KNOW ABOUT THE MARKET I LEARN FROM BARRON ’ S Don Gimpel July 2011

Source Material:Source Material:

Page 25: ALL I KNOW ABOUT THE MARKET I LEARN FROM BARRON ’ S Don Gimpel July 2011

I’m throwing in a bonus:I’m throwing in a bonus: For being such a good audience today, I’m throwing in a bonus and that’s Waterloo University’s Professor Peter Ponzo’s infamous Monte-Carlo based Retirememt Calculator. It’s an Excel spreadsheet available on the Chapter WEB site http:www.AAIILosAngeles.org. Look for Don’s page. It’s called MC-Stuff2 Make some reasonable assumptions about income and expenses, start the calculations and watch as your projected estate random walks to zero and you are thrown on the tender mercies of your children. We end with that happy note.