allan macdonald - ivey business school€¦ · the most profitable industry ever? revenue ebit ebit...

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Allan MacDonald Senior Vice President Burgundy Asset Management

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Page 1: Allan MacDonald - Ivey Business School€¦ · The Most Profitable Industry Ever? Revenue EBIT EBIT Margin 1,180 729 61.8% 4,138 2,770 66.9% 4,892 2,885 59.0% 453 233 51.5% 803 341

Allan MacDonaldSenior Vice PresidentBurgundy Asset Management

Page 2: Allan MacDonald - Ivey Business School€¦ · The Most Profitable Industry Ever? Revenue EBIT EBIT Margin 1,180 729 61.8% 4,138 2,770 66.9% 4,892 2,885 59.0% 453 233 51.5% 803 341

Source: Company Filings

Page 3: Allan MacDonald - Ivey Business School€¦ · The Most Profitable Industry Ever? Revenue EBIT EBIT Margin 1,180 729 61.8% 4,138 2,770 66.9% 4,892 2,885 59.0% 453 233 51.5% 803 341

Source: Company Filings

Page 4: Allan MacDonald - Ivey Business School€¦ · The Most Profitable Industry Ever? Revenue EBIT EBIT Margin 1,180 729 61.8% 4,138 2,770 66.9% 4,892 2,885 59.0% 453 233 51.5% 803 341

ONEX - The First Public LBO Company in the World

Source: Company Filings

NET ASSETS AT FAIR VALUE

Onex Public Market Cap $127,760

As at December 31 (in thousands of dollars) 1990

Cash and Short-Term Investments $93,352

Equity investment in operating companies at cost

Sky Chefs $57,303

Purolator Courier $64,817

Dayton Superior $9,957

Automotive Industries $23,073

Dura Mechanical $3,303

Beatrice Foods $29,242

Total Investments in Operating Companies at Cost $187,695

Preferred shares of Ball Packaging Holdings $25,559

Total Investments at Cost $213,254

Unrealized Gain $83,646

Equity Investment at Fair Value $296,900

Other Assets $36,812

NET ASSETS AT FAIR VALUE $418,537

$1.4 billion

Page 5: Allan MacDonald - Ivey Business School€¦ · The Most Profitable Industry Ever? Revenue EBIT EBIT Margin 1,180 729 61.8% 4,138 2,770 66.9% 4,892 2,885 59.0% 453 233 51.5% 803 341

Onex: By the Numbers

Source: Company Filings

1991 January Stock Price $5.50

1992 February Special Dividend $3.50

Net Invest Capital per Share $2.00

Stock Split 2x 2:1

Adjusted Stock Price $0.50

Page 6: Allan MacDonald - Ivey Business School€¦ · The Most Profitable Industry Ever? Revenue EBIT EBIT Margin 1,180 729 61.8% 4,138 2,770 66.9% 4,892 2,885 59.0% 453 233 51.5% 803 341

Onex: Total Return Chart

Source: Bloomberg

Split adjusted: $1.50 per share

Page 7: Allan MacDonald - Ivey Business School€¦ · The Most Profitable Industry Ever? Revenue EBIT EBIT Margin 1,180 729 61.8% 4,138 2,770 66.9% 4,892 2,885 59.0% 453 233 51.5% 803 341

Online Travel

Page 8: Allan MacDonald - Ivey Business School€¦ · The Most Profitable Industry Ever? Revenue EBIT EBIT Margin 1,180 729 61.8% 4,138 2,770 66.9% 4,892 2,885 59.0% 453 233 51.5% 803 341

Pre-September 11th Share Price Performance

Source: Bloomberg

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

10-Sep-2001 16-Sep-2001 22-Sep-2001 28-Sep-2001 04-Oct-2001 10-Oct-2001 16-Oct-2001

Expedia Hotels.com Marriott

Two Days Post Sept 11

-25%

-46%

-39%

Page 9: Allan MacDonald - Ivey Business School€¦ · The Most Profitable Industry Ever? Revenue EBIT EBIT Margin 1,180 729 61.8% 4,138 2,770 66.9% 4,892 2,885 59.0% 453 233 51.5% 803 341

Post-September 11th Revenue Performance

Source: Company filings

58%

42%

303%

231%

189% 184%

60%

42%

57%66%

83%92%

(13)% (14)% (13)% (10)% (9)% (4)%

Sep 30, 2001 Dec 31, 2001 Mar 31, 2002 Jun 30, 2002 Sep 30, 2002 Dec 31, 2002

Expedia (Merchant Sales) Hotels.com (Sales) Marriott (RevPAR)

Page 10: Allan MacDonald - Ivey Business School€¦ · The Most Profitable Industry Ever? Revenue EBIT EBIT Margin 1,180 729 61.8% 4,138 2,770 66.9% 4,892 2,885 59.0% 453 233 51.5% 803 341

Post-September 11th Share Price Performance

Source: Bloomberg

40

90

140

190

240

290

10-Sep-2001 26-Oct-2001 10-Dec-2001 24-Jan-2002 08-Mar-2002 22-Apr-2002

Expedia Hotels.com Marriott

September 18th

181%

106%

29%

% Return from Sept 18th

Page 11: Allan MacDonald - Ivey Business School€¦ · The Most Profitable Industry Ever? Revenue EBIT EBIT Margin 1,180 729 61.8% 4,138 2,770 66.9% 4,892 2,885 59.0% 453 233 51.5% 803 341

SNC-Lavalin Group

Source: Company Filings

• SNC-Lavalin Group

• Global Engineering Service Company

• In 1999 acquires a 26% interest in the 407 Toll Highway for $200 million

• Market punishes stock

• Estimate 407 value created for SNC shareholders = $5 billion

Page 12: Allan MacDonald - Ivey Business School€¦ · The Most Profitable Industry Ever? Revenue EBIT EBIT Margin 1,180 729 61.8% 4,138 2,770 66.9% 4,892 2,885 59.0% 453 233 51.5% 803 341

$115

$980

2000 2016

8.5x

$190

$1,135

2000 2016

6.0x

407 Highway – Then and Now

Source: Company Filings

Trips per Year Price per Trip

Revenue (C$mm) EBITDA (C$mm)

$2.76

$9.11

2000 2016

3.3x

68,640

124,500

2000 2016

1.8x

Page 13: Allan MacDonald - Ivey Business School€¦ · The Most Profitable Industry Ever? Revenue EBIT EBIT Margin 1,180 729 61.8% 4,138 2,770 66.9% 4,892 2,885 59.0% 453 233 51.5% 803 341

Madison Square Garden Company (MSG)

Source: Company Filings

Owns:

• The most iconic sports and live events stadium in the world

• The only two professional sports teams on the island of Manhattan

• MSG Network – a wildly profitable regional sports network (the hidden jewel)

US$ millions in 2009:

Market Capitalization $1.3 billion

Enterprise Value $1.0 billion

Page 14: Allan MacDonald - Ivey Business School€¦ · The Most Profitable Industry Ever? Revenue EBIT EBIT Margin 1,180 729 61.8% 4,138 2,770 66.9% 4,892 2,885 59.0% 453 233 51.5% 803 341

Demutualization

Page 15: Allan MacDonald - Ivey Business School€¦ · The Most Profitable Industry Ever? Revenue EBIT EBIT Margin 1,180 729 61.8% 4,138 2,770 66.9% 4,892 2,885 59.0% 453 233 51.5% 803 341

The Most Profitable Industry Ever?

Revenue EBIT EBIT Margin

1,180 729 61.8%

4,138 2,770 66.9%

4,892 2,885 59.0%

453 233 51.5%

803 341 42.5%

2,582 1,204 46.6%

2,140 959 44.8%

16,098 11,441 71.1%

2,813 1,449 51.5%

850 430 50.6%

825 589 71.4%

77 23 30.3%

2018E

North America

NZX Ltd

CBOE Global Markets

CME Group

Intercontinental Exchange

MarketAxess Holdings

TMX Group

Nasdaq Inc.

Rest of World

London Stock Exchange

Hong Kong Stock Exchange

Deutsche Boerse

Singapore Exchange

ASX Ltd

Page 16: Allan MacDonald - Ivey Business School€¦ · The Most Profitable Industry Ever? Revenue EBIT EBIT Margin 1,180 729 61.8% 4,138 2,770 66.9% 4,892 2,885 59.0% 453 233 51.5% 803 341

Demutualized Companies

Source: Bloomberg

Global Financial Exchanges IPO Date

CBOE Global Markets 14-Jun-10

CME Group 5-Dec-02

Intercontinental Exchange 15-Nov-05

MarketAxess Holdings 4-Nov-04

TMX Group 1-Oct-03

Nasdaq Inc. 8-Jul-02

London Stock Exchange 20-Jul-01

Hong Kong Stock Exchange 27-Jun-00

Deutsche Boerse 5-Feb-01

Singapore Exchange 22-Nov-00

ASX Ltd 14-Oct-98

NZX Ltd 10-Jul-03

Non-Exchange

Visa 18-Mar-08

Mastercard 24-May-06

Premier 25-Sep-13

Metro 12-Sep-88

Uni-Select 19-Nov-85

Premuim Brands 31-Dec-96

Manulife 24-Sep-99

Industrial Alliance 4-Feb-00

Verisk 6-Oct-09

Sun Life Financial 23-Mar-00

Rightmove PLC 9-Mar-06

14% N.A. 19%

Annualized Returns of Demutualized Companies

3 year return 10 year return Since inception

118% 23% 23%

40% 26% 23%

13% 19% 24%

45% 11% 11%

12% 5% 12%

1% 9% 15%

10% 31% 21%

9% 12% 11%

13% 23% 11%

39% 21% 14%

30% 20% 11%

18% 27% 22%

63% 38% 37%

6% N.A. 3%

17% 23% 17%

28% 21% 13%

32% -2% 11%

22% 9% 5%

31% 14% 11%

30% N.A. 20%

28% 9% 8%

-12% 28% 24%

Page 17: Allan MacDonald - Ivey Business School€¦ · The Most Profitable Industry Ever? Revenue EBIT EBIT Margin 1,180 729 61.8% 4,138 2,770 66.9% 4,892 2,885 59.0% 453 233 51.5% 803 341

Member / Customer Owned Companies

• Vanguard Group

• The Deposit Trust & Clearing Corporation

• Best Western Hotels

• Ace Hardware

• True Value

• Sunkist

United States

• Home Hardware

• Mountain Equipment Coop

• Realtor.ca

• Vancity Credit Union

• Interac

Canada

Page 18: Allan MacDonald - Ivey Business School€¦ · The Most Profitable Industry Ever? Revenue EBIT EBIT Margin 1,180 729 61.8% 4,138 2,770 66.9% 4,892 2,885 59.0% 453 233 51.5% 803 341

Premier

Source: Company Filings

The only publically traded healthcare Group Purchasing Organization (GPO)

• Controls $56 billion of healthcare spending for 3,900 Member Hospitals

• Has a rich database of mission critical information

• 60% owned by its Member Hospitals

Key Statistics

Market Cap $4,436

Net Debt $44

Pre-Tax ROIC 2017 96%

Operating Profit Margin 2017 30%

EV / EBITA 2018 est 8.0x

PE Ratio 2018 est. 12.5x