allocating david levinson,. where does congestion come from?
TRANSCRIPT
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Allocating
David Levinson,
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Where Does Congestion
Come From?Flow throughbottleneck (q)
Flow throughupstream section (Q)
Flow throughupstream lane (Ql)
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Inputs & OutputsInput-Output Diagram
0
5
10
15
20
25
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
Time
Cumulative Count
Cumulative Arrivals Cumulative Departures
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How Do We Manage Congestion
• Infrastructure (Assembly)• Travel Demand Management (Administering)• Transportation Systems Management (TSM)[In pairs, everyone come up with a list of 3
Tools of TSM (things that affect the supply or capacity, not the demand), what are the advantages and disadvantages of each]
• Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS) (TSM rebranded + more advanced technology)
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Why TSM?• We have largely built out existing
transportation network (S-Curve). [What is an S-Curve?]
• Highways are a mature system.• More efficient (faster, safer, greater
person flows (and vehicle flows)) use of existing transportation facilities without significant new construction.
• Complements TDM strategies - but not aimed at reducing demand.
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Some TSM/ITS Tools• High Occupancy Vehicle Lanes (HOV Lanes)• High Occupancy Toll Lanes (HOT Lanes)• Bus Priority Lanes, Queue Jumpers, Signal Pre-
emption• Park and Ride Lots• Ramp Meters• Highway Helpers• Variable Message Signs• Electronic Toll Collection• Highway Access Management• Other “Intelligent Transportation Systems”• Other
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How Should We Manage Congestion
• Pricing
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Classic ExplanationMarginal cost, short run
Average cost, short run
Quantity
Price,cost
Demand
QoQ*
Po
P*
Toll
= Welfare loss without tolls
Legend:
P* = Optimal price with tolls
Po = Price without tolls
Q* = Amount of travel with tolls
Qo = Amount of travel without tolls
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Classic Explanation Unpacked
DA (Demand at LOS A)
DF
Money priceto travelers $
Quantity (traffic flow)
Revealed demand
SA
SB
SC
SD
SE
Travel time function(short-run average cost)
SF
Quantity (traffic flow)
Travel time(LOS)
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Welfare Analysis
DC
DF
Moneyprice totravelers
($)
Quantity (traffic flow)
Revealed demand
C.S. unpriced
P.S. priced
C.S. priced
U
V
O
W
Y Z
Legend:
Consumers’ surplus priced = UVW Producer’s surplus priced = OVWY
Consumers’ surplus unpriced = VOZ Producer’s surplus unpriced = 0
X
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But Travel Time Varies with Time
• Classic explanation doesn’t account for that.
• Recall I/O Diagram• What is marginal delay?
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Inputs & OutputsInput-Output Diagram
0
5
10
15
20
25
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
Time
Cumulative Count
Cumulative Arrivals Cumulative Departures
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Marginal DelayMarginal Delay (excluding own delay)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
0 5 10 15 20 25
Cumulative Arrivals (Q)
Marginal Delay
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HOT Lanes• Congestion pricing is “too hard”
politically at this time.• What are HOT Lanes?
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Pricing is Inevitable• Why?• Gas tax revenue is shrinking as the fleet becomes
more fuel efficient - – better Internal Combustion Engine, – Hybrid vehicles– Alternative fuel vehicles– Fuel Cells
• Yet roads still need to be financed• Congestion will still be problem• Devolution of power changes incentives (free riders)• Electronic toll collection makes pricing much easier.
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London’s Congestion
Charging Scheme
Presentation by Karen Akins to TRB Pricing Committee
January 15, 2002
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Purpose of Presentation
• Briefly familiarize TRB Pricing committee with details of London’s scheme
• Explain unique circumstances leading to successful introduction of scheme
• Identify factors which will influence outcome of the scheme
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Greater London
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Charging zone is 8 square miles and covers 1.3% of the total 617 square miles of Greater London.
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Scheme Operation
• Daily, weekly, monthly or annual license for individual vehicle registration number
• Flat charge of 5 pounds per day (Monday-Friday 7am-6:30 pm) for all vehicles*
• Payment by mail, telephone, retail, internet• Late payment until midnight, but charge rises
to 10 pounds after 10pm– *Exceptions/discounts granted
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How it would work
• A network of 230 cameras will be located at sites throughout the charging zone, not just at the boundaries. All the main entry points will be covered.
• Every single lane of traffic will be monitored at both entrances and exits to the charging zone
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Signage
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Key Benefits of Scheme
• Reduce the amount of traffic in central London by 10-15%
• In turn, this would cut traffic delays by about 25%• Less traffic inside and outside the central zone• Help bus operations• Produce substantial net revenues for transport in
London (almost $200 million per year)
Source: Transport for London
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London 2003
• Mayor Ken Livingstone- strong political leadership• Transportation crisis-years of underinvestment in
public transportation infrastructure (by law revenues tied to improvements)
• Public support- Traffic congestion is Londoners’ top transport issue
• Absence of privacy issues (London as “CCTV capital of the world”, City “Ring of Steel”)
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Mayor Ken Livingstone• Mayor of London in 1980’s• GLC Abolished by Thatcher
government in 1986• GLA re-established as strategic
authority-specific authority given for congestion charging
• Mayoral elections in 2000-Livingstone re-elected
• All mayoral candidates supported congestion charging, except one
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Historic Underinvestment in Public Transportation
• Two decades of population growth and one decade of economic growth
• Unpredictable and low level of investment by central government in tube
• Congestion charging revenues are the only source of significant funding for investment in transportation at mayor’s discretion
Population Growth
Congestion Charging will net 130 million pounds per year
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Support by national government
• 1964-Sneed Report on Road Pricing, official endorsement of concept
• 1995-London Congestion Research Program publication
• 1999-GLA formed and given specific authority for road pricing
• 2000-Independent ROCOL group publishes technical assessment
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Public Support
Ken Livingstone elected mayor by overwhelming majority (58%) on a platform of congestion charging
Congestion charging is backed by 53% of Londoners if revenue is solely used for making significant improvements to public transportation (Source: MORI poll, July 2001)
Public consultation-some 2,500 individuals and organizations responded during two rounds (July to October 2001 and December 2001-January 2002)
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Political Compromises
Examples
1. Flat fee
2. Exemptions
3. Discounts
4. Hours
What would Vickery think?
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Flat Fee
Trucks originally were to be charged 15 pounds per day, now they will pay only 5 like everyone else
Freight Transport Association lobbying
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Discounts
• Residents’ 90% discount, for example– 80,000 households within charging zone– Car ownership 50%– Justification: 80% of trips start and end in boroughs outside
charging zone
Most deprived wards Original boundaries proposed did not extend south of river
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Exemptions
• Motorcycles, mopeds
• Black cabs
• Licensed mini-cabs
• Disabled passenger vehicles
• Emergency service vehicles
• NHS vehicles exempt from duty
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Public Opposition• Westminster City Council-call for “public inquiry” and
failed legal challenge• Kennington residents(severance /effect on property
values)-protest and failed legal challenge• Restaurant and theater workers (cost and safety for
female workers)• Meat traders at Spitalfields Market-cost• Inner London charities-cost to volunteers• Individual boroughs-majority do not support scheme
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Privacy Issues(or lack thereof)
“Ring of Steel” in City of London for protection from IRA bombs
London is already unofficial CCTV capital of the world, what’s one more camera?
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Factors Influencing Outcome
• Discounts/exemptions-are they too generous? Is scheme too watered down due to need for political compromise?
• Will implementation be smooth”-Will call center be overwhelmed if Post Office doesn’t participate?
• Are public transportation improvements so far sufficient to handle increased ridership?
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Most Likely Implementation Problems
• Call center operation/post office
• Database problems-enforcement
• Motorcycle/moped/bicycle parking problems
• Adequacy of public transport system to handle additional ridership?
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Public Transportation Improvements
• Specific emphasis on buses (i.e. 60 new routes)
• Expanded underground and rail capacity with new services across central London (long term)
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New tram systems
Cross River Tram
Ready in 2011
72 million passengers/year
West London Tram
Ready in 2009
50 million passengers/year
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The Future?
• Will Ken drop scheme after two months if the scheme is not successful? - odds are 4 to 1 he’ll drop it within first year
• If successful, other cities in U.K. will quickly follow, charge itself will likely be increased from 5 pounds
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Big C DayFebruary 17, 2003
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How to follow issue:
• www.transportforlondon.gov.uk (official local government website for London)
• www.bbc.co.uk/congestion (best overall website)
• www.guardian.co.uk (best commentary)• www.sod-u-ken.com (forum for
opposition)
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For a copy of the paper or further information, contact:
Karen Akins
City Design and Social Science
283 Maple Street
Stowe, VT 05672
(802) 793-1481
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