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  • 8/3/2019 AlokQ1FY12

    1/9

    CRISIL Limited. All Rights Reserved.

    Enhancing investment decisions

    Q1FY12 Result Update

    Alok Industries Ltd

  • 8/3/2019 AlokQ1FY12

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    CRISIL Limited. All Rights Reserved.

    Explanation of CRISIL Fundamental and Valuation (CFV) matrix

    The CFV Matrix (CRISIL Fundamental and Valuation Matrix) addresses the two important analysis of an investment making process

    Analysis of Fundamentals (addressed through Fundamental Grade) and Analysis of Returns (Valuation Grade) The fundamental

    grade is assigned on a five-point scale from grade 5 (indicating Excellent fundamentals) to grade 1 (Poor fundamentals) The

    valuation grade is assigned on a five-point scale from grade 5 (indicating strong upside from the current market price (CMP)) to

    grade 1 (strong downside from the CMP).

    CRISILFundamental Grade

    Assessment CRISILValuation Grade

    Assessment

    5/5 Excellent fundamentals 5/5 Strong upside (>25% from CMP)

    4/5 Superior fundamentals 4/5 Upside (10-25% from CMP)

    3/5 Good fundamentals 3/5 Align (+-10% from CMP)

    2/5 Moderate fundamentals 2/5 Downside (- 10-25% from CMP)

    1/5 Poor fundamentals 1/5 Strong downside (

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    CRISIL Limited. All Rights Reserved. CRISIL RESEARCH | 1

    Alok Industries LtdGrowth momentum intact

    Fundamental Grade 3/ 5 (Good fundamentals)Valuation Grade 5/ 5 (CMP has strong upside)

    Indu stry Textiles, Appa rel & Luxury Goods

    Fair Value Rs 31CMP Rs 24

    August 04, 2011

    Alok Industries Ltds (Aloks) Q1FY12 revenues and profitability were in line

    with CRISIL Researchs expectations. Although we are cautious considering

    rising interest rates and firming exchange rate, we maintain the fundamental

    grade of3/ 5.

    Q1FY12 result analysis

    Revenues grew by 50% y-o-y to Rs 16,449 mn, led by the polyester yarn

    (y-o-y growth of 82%) and apparel fabric (y-o-y growth of 42%)

    segments. Share of the polyester yarn segment increased from 35% in

    Q1FY11 to 41% in Q1FY12. This was largely on account of capacity

    addition of ~300 tpd of polyester yarn in Q3FY11.

    EBIDTA margin contracted by ~200 bps on account of increase in raw

    material costs and rising share of the polyester business, which is a

    relatively low-margin business as compared to Aloks other segments.

    The decline in PAT margin was moderate because of low interest cost as a

    percentage of sales, i.e. 12.1% in Q1FY12 vs. 14.3% in Q1FY11. However,

    PAT increased by 24% y-o-y to Rs 578 mn backed by higher sales.

    Key development: Update on expansion plans

    The H&A chain of stores opened an additional 20 shops during the

    quarter, taking the total number of stores to 311 (including shop-in-shop).

    The board of directors has approved the amalgamation of Grabal Alok

    Impex Ltd, which manufactures embroidered products, with Alok.

    Earnings estimates maintainedWe maintain our revenue and earnings estimates for FY12 and FY13. We have

    consolidated Grabal Alok Impex Ltd with Alok.

    Valuations: Current market price has strong upside

    We continue to use the discounted cash flow method to value Alok. We

    maintain the fair value at Rs 31 per share. Based on the current market price,

    our valuation grade is 5/5.

    KEY FORECAST

    (Rs mn) FY09 FY010 FY11# FY12 FY13

    Operating income 31,115 44,202 75,200 97,367 116,191

    EBITDA 8,017 12,704 18,434 22,438 27,357

    Adj PAT (834) 927 3,307 5,174 7,964

    Adj EPS-Rs (4.2) 1.2 4.2 6.4 9.8

    EPS growth (%) (57.9) (58.9) 169.6 33.8 68.4

    Dividend yield (%) 7.0 1.3 1.8 1.1 2.3

    RoCE (%) 6.9 8.4 9.5 11.1 13.6

    RoE (%) (4.9) 4.0 11.4 15.3 19.4

    PE (x) (3.0) 18.9 5.3 3.5 2.3

    P/BV (x) 0.1 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.4

    EV/EBITDA (x) 8.4 7.8 6.3 5.2 4.2

    #FY11 numbers are based on abridged financials

    NM: Not meaningful; CMP: Current market price

    Source: Company, CRISIL Resea rch estimate

    CFV MATRIX

    KEY STOCK STATI STICSNIFTY / SENSEX 5405/17941

    NSE / BSE tickerALOKTEXT/

    ALOKIND

    Face value (Rs per share) 10

    Shares outstanding (mn) 788

    Market cap (Rs mn)/(US$ mn) 18,991/429

    Enterprise value (Rs bn) /(US$ bn) 114/3

    52-week range (Rs) (H/L) 35/18

    Beta 1.4

    Free float (%) 70.6%

    Avg daily volumes (30-days) 4,250,889

    Avg daily value (30-days) (Rs mn) 106.9

    SHAREHOLDING PATTERN

    PERFORMANCE VIS--VIS MARKETReturns

    1-m 3-m 6-m 12-mAlok Industries -7% -7% -6% 16%

    NIFTY -4% -3% -2% -1%

    ANALY TICAL CONTACTSudhir Nair (Head) [email protected]

    Arun Vasu [email protected]

    Vinay Chhawchharia [email protected]

    Client servicing desk

    +91 22 3342 3561 [email protected]

    1 2 3 4 5

    1

    2

    3

    4

    5

    Valuation Grade

    FundamentalGrade

    Poor

    Fundamentals

    Excellent

    S

    trong

    Do

    wnside

    S

    trong

    U

    pside

    28.4% 28.4% 28.4% 29.4%

    13.9% 16.9% 16.5%20.7%

    21.5% 13.8% 13.4%11.7%

    36.3% 40.9% 41.7% 38.3%

    0%

    10%

    20%

    30%

    40%

    50%

    60%

    70%

    80%

    90%

    100%

    Sep-10 Dec-10 Mar-11 Jun-11

    Promoter FII DII Others

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    CRISIL Limited. All Rights Reserved. CRISIL RESEARCH | 2

    Alok Industries Ltd

    Q1FY12 Result Summary(Rs mn) Q1FY12 Q4FY11 Q1FY11 q-o-q (% ) y-o-y (% )

    Net sales 16,449 22,029 10,990 (25.3) 49.7Raw materials cost 8,060 12,289 5,130 (34.4) 57.1

    Raw materials cost (% of net sales) 49.0% 55.8% 46.7% -678bps 232bps

    Employees cost 550 556 416 (1.2) 32.1Other expenses 3,317 3,606 2,176 (8.0) 52.5

    EBITDA 4,522 5,578 3,268 (18.9) 38.4EBITDA margin 27.5% 25.3% 29.7% 217bps -224bpsDepreciation 1,650 1,600 993 3.1 66.1

    EBIT 2,873 3,978 2,275 (27.8) 26.3Interest and finance charges 2,004 1,591 1,571 26.0 27.6

    Operating PBT 868 2,387 704 (63.6) 23.3Other income 7 9 1 (24.7) NM

    PBT 875 2,396 705 (63.5) 24.2Tax 297 796 239 (62.6) 24.2

    PAT 578 1,601 465 (63.9) 24.2Adj PAT 578 1,601 465 (63.9) 24.2

    Adj PAT margin 3.5% 7.3% 4.2% -375bps -72bpsNo of equity shares (mn) 787.8 787.8 787.8 - -

    Adj EPS (Rs) 0.7 2.0 0.6 (63.9) 24.2

    Source: Company, CRISIL Resea rch

    Revenue up while EBITDA margin down y-o-y Net margin declines y-o-y

    Source: Company, CRISI L Research Source: Company, CRISIL Research

    Contribution of polyester yarn on an uptrend Share price movement vs. NIFTY

    -indexed to 100

    Source: Company, CRISI L Research Source: NSE, CRISIL Research

    9,

    758

    10,8

    25

    14,7

    11

    10,9

    90

    14,5

    15

    16,1

    26

    22,0

    29

    16,4

    49

    29.9%29.8%

    29.1%

    29.7%

    28.6%28.9%

    25.3%

    27.5%

    22%

    23%

    24%

    25%

    26%

    27%

    28%

    29%

    30%

    0

    5,000

    10,000

    15,000

    20,000

    25,000

    Q2FY10

    Q3FY10

    Q4FY10

    Q1FY11

    Q2FY11

    Q3FY11

    Q4FY11

    Q1FY12

    (Rs mn)

    Revenue EBITDA margin (RHS)

    572 581 953 465 798 905 1,601 578

    5.9%

    5.4%

    6.5%

    4.2%

    5.5%5.6%

    7.3%

    3.5%

    0%

    1%

    2%

    3%

    4%

    5%

    6%

    7%

    8%

    0

    200

    400

    600

    800

    1,000

    1,200

    1,400

    1,600

    1,800

    Q2FY10

    Q3FY10

    Q4FY10

    Q1FY11

    Q2FY11

    Q3FY11

    Q4FY11

    Q1FY12

    (Rs mn)

    PAT PAT margin (RHS)

    49195

    50 110 44371

    43

    186

    201

    182278

    273

    253

    235

    534687

    515

    731865

    1,031

    723

    313 389 353332 431 548

    644

    0%

    10%

    20%

    30%

    40%

    50%

    60%

    70%

    80%

    90%

    100%

    Q3FY10 Q4FY10 Q1FY11 Q2FY11 Q3FY11 Q4FY11 Q1FY12

    Cotton Yarn Home textiles Apparel Fabric Polyester Yarn

    0

    20

    40

    60

    80

    100

    120

    Jan-08

    Mar-08

    May-08

    Aug-08

    Oct-08

    Dec-08

    Mar-09

    May-09

    Jul-09

    Oct-09

    Dec-09

    Mar-10

    May-10

    Jul-10

    Oct-10

    Dec-10

    Feb-11

    May-11

    Jul-11

    Alok Industries NIFTY

    Robust revenue

    grow th y-o-y

    Higher raw material

    costs lowered

    profitability on a y-o-y

    basis

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    CRISIL Limited. All Rights Reserved. CRISIL RESEARCH | 3

    Alok Industries Ltd

    KEY DEVELOPMENTS

    The H&A chain of stores opened an additional 20 shops during the quarter,

    taking the total number of stores to 311 (including shop-in-shop).

    The board of directors has approved the amalgamation of Grabal Alok

    Impex Ltd, which manufactures embroidered products, with Alok. The swap

    ratio as approved by the board is 1:1 of Rs 10 each.

    Two commercial floors at Peninsula Business Park have been leased out.

    One floor in Ashford Centre has been sold out.

    EARNINGS ESTIMATES MAINTAINED

    Particulars Unit

    FY12E FY13E

    Old New % change Old New % change

    Revenue Rs mn 95,521 97,367 1.9% 113,533 116,191 2.3%

    EBITDA Rs mn 22,013 22,438 1.9% 26,731 27,357 2.3%

    EBITDA margin % 23.0 23.0 0 bps 23.5 23.5 0 bps

    PAT Rs mn 5,001 5,174 3% 7,780 7,964 2%

    PAT margin % 5.2 5.3 7 bps 6.9 6.9 0 bps

    EPS Rs 6.3 6.4 0.6% 9.9 9.8 -0.5%

    Source: CRISIL Res earch

    We have consolidated revenues of Grabal Alok Impex Ltd with Alok industries,

    leading to marginal upside revision in revenue for FY12 and FY13. Earnings

    estimate remains unchanged.

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    CRISIL Limited. All Rights Reserved. CRISIL RESEARCH | 4

    Alok Industries Ltd

    VALUATION

    We continue to use the discounted cash flow (DCF) method to value the

    consolidated cash flows of Aloks textile, retail and infrastructure businesses.

    Based on our DCF approach, we have arrived at a fair value of Rs 31 per share.

    At this fair value, the implied P/E multiples are 4.9x FY12E and 3.1x FY13E EPS.

    One-year forward P/ E band One-year forward EV/ EBITDA band

    Source: NSE, CRISIL Research Source: NSE, CRISIL Research

    P/ E premium/discount to NIFTY P/ E movement

    Source: NSE, CRISIL Research Source: NSE, CRISIL Research.

    CRISIL IER reports released on Alok I ndustries Ltd

    Date Nature of reportFundamental

    grade Fair valueValuation

    gradeCMP

    (on the date of report)

    26-Jul-11 Initiating coverage* 3/5 Rs 31 4/5 Rs 26

    04-Aug-11 Q1FY12 result update 3/5 Rs 31 5/5 Rs 24

    * For detailed initiating coverage report please visit: www.ier.co.inCRISIL Independent Equity Research reports are also available on Bloomberg (CRI ) and Thomson Reuters.

    5

    10

    15

    20

    25

    30

    35

    40

    Jan-10

    Feb-10

    Mar-10

    Apr-10

    May-10

    Jun-10

    Jul-10

    Aug-10

    Sep-10

    Oct-10

    Nov-10

    Dec-10

    Jan-11

    Feb-11

    Mar-11

    Apr-11

    May-11

    Jun-11

    Jul-11

    (Rs)

    Alok 3x 3.5x 4x 4.5x 5x

    60,000

    80,000

    100,000

    120,000

    140,000

    160,000

    Jan-10

    Feb-10

    Mar-10

    Apr-10

    May-10

    Jun-10

    Jul-10

    Aug-10

    Sep-10

    Oct-10

    Nov-10

    Dec-10

    Jan-11

    Feb-11

    Mar-11

    Apr-11

    May-11

    Jun-11

    Jul-11

    (Rs mn)

    EV 4.5x 5x 5.5x 6x

    -80%

    -70%

    -60%

    -50%

    -40%

    -30%

    -20%

    -10%

    0%

    Jan-10

    Feb-10

    Mar-10

    Apr-10

    May-10

    Jun-10

    Jul-10

    Aug-10

    Sep-10

    Oct-10

    Nov-10

    Dec-10

    Jan-11

    Feb-11

    Mar-11

    Apr-11

    May-11

    Jun-11

    Jul-11

    Premium/Discount to NIFTY Median premium/discount to NIFTY

    0

    2

    4

    6

    8

    10

    12

    Jan-10

    Feb-10

    Mar-10

    Apr-10

    May-10

    Jun-10

    Jul-10

    Aug-10

    Sep-10

    Oct-10

    Nov-10

    Dec-10

    Jan-11

    Feb-11

    Mar-11

    Apr-11

    May-11

    Jun-11

    Jul-11

    (x)

    1yr Fwd PE (x) Median PE

    +1 std dev

    -1 std dev

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    CRISIL Limited. All Rights Reserved. CRISIL RESEARCH | 5

    Alok Industries Ltd

    FINANCIALS

    Note: All ratios are computed on Adj PAT

    #FY11 numbers based on abridged financials

    Source: Company, CRISIL Resea rch estimate

    Income statement Ba lance Sheet

    (Rs mn) FY09 FY10 FY11# FY12E FY13E (Rs mn) FY09 FY10 FY11# FY12E FY13E

    Operating income 31,115 44,202 75,200 97,367 116,191 Liabi li ties

    EBITDA 8,017 12,704 18,434 22,438 27,357 Equity share capital 1,970 7,878 7,878 8,103 8,103

    EBITDA margin 25.8% 28.7% 24.5% 23.0% 23.5% Reserves 17,280 19,482 22,807 28,857 36,950

    Depreciation 2,402 3,718 5,874 6,545 7,267 Minorities - - - - -

    EBIT 5,616 8,986 12,560 15,893 20,091 Net wor th 19,250 27,360 30,685 36,959 45,053

    Interest 5,489 6,812 7,704 8,473 8,514 Convertible debt - - - -

    Operating PBT 127 2,174 4,856 7,420 11,576 Other debt 69,565 96,726 108,726 109,926 102,926

    Other income 97 40 423 302 311 Tota l debt 69,565 96,726 108,726 109,926 102,926

    Exceptional inc/(exp) 1,669 444 388 (88) 602 Deferred tax liability (net) 3,064 4,030 4,778 5,033 5,229

    PBT 1,893 2,657 5,667 7,634 12,489 Tota l liabi lities 91,879 128,115 144,189 151,918 153,208

    Tax provision 1,058 1,286 1,972 2,548 3,923 Assets

    Minority interest - - - - - Net fixed assets 38,586 62,703 67,829 77,626 75,360

    PAT (Reported) 834 1,371 3,695 5,086 8,566 Capital WIP 23,770 16,914 15,914 914 914

    Less: Exceptionals 1,669 444 388 (88) 602 Tota l fixed assets 62,356 79,617 83,743 78,541 76,274

    Adjusted PAT (834) 927 3,307 5,174 7,964 Investments 4,233 3,812 3,812 3,812 3,812

    -2.7% 2.1% 4.4% 5.3% 6.9% Current assets

    Ratios Inventory 10,687 15,678 24,311 31,478 36,608

    FY09 FY10 FY11# FY12E FY13E Sundry debtors 9,305 11,561 20,076 25,994 31,019

    Growth Loans and advances 6,320 8,526 15,040 19,473 22,076

    Operating income (%) 35.9 42.1 70.1 29.5 19.3 Cash & bank balance 4,274 14,107 10,059 10,356 5,649

    EBITDA (%) 48.7 58.5 45.1 21.7 21.9 Marketable securities 526 460 460 460 460

    Adj PAT (%) (214.6) (211.1) 256.7 56.5 53.9 Tota l cur rent assets 31,113 50,332 69,947 87,761 95,813

    Adj EPS (%) (208.9) (127.8) 256.7 52.1 53.9 Tota l cur rent l iabil ities 6,805 7,699 15,366 20,249 24,744

    Net cur rent assets 24,308 42,633 54,581 67,513 71,069

    Profitabi lity Intangibles/ Misc . expenditure 983 2,053 2,053 2,053 2,053

    EBITDA margin (%) 25.8 28.7 24.5 23.0 23.5 Tota l assets 91,879 128,115 144,189 151,918 153,208

    Adj PAT Margin (%) (2.7) 2.1 4.4 5.3 6.9

    RoE (%) (4.9) 4.0 11.4 15.3 19.4 Cash flow

    RoCE (%) 6.9 8.4 9.5 11.1 13.6 (Rs mn) FY09 FY10 FY11# FY12E FY13E

    RoIC (%) 7.1 8.3 9.9 10.8 12.4 Pre-tax profit 224 2,213 5,279 7,722 11,887

    Total tax paid (97) (321) (1,224) (2,293) (3,727)

    Valuations Depreciation 2,402 3,718 5,874 6,545 7,267

    Price-earnings (x) (3.0) 18.9 5.3 3.5 2.3 Working capital changes (4,844) (8,559) (15,996) (12,635) (8,264)

    Price-book (x) 0.1 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.4 Net cash from operations (2,315) (2,948) (6,066) (661) 7,164

    EV/EBITDA (x) 8.4 7.8 6.3 5.2 4.2 Cash from investments

    EV/Sales (x) 2.2 2.3 1.5 1.2 1.0 Capital expenditure (24,160) (22,050) (10,000) (1,343) (5,000)

    D ividend payout r atio (%) 20.7 16.8 8.5 4.0 4.7 Investments and others (3,069) 487 - - -

    Dividend yield (%) 7.0 1.3 1.8 1.1 2.3 Ne t c as h f ro m inv es tm ents ( 27,229) ( 21,563) (10,000) (1,343) (5,000)Cash from financing

    B/S rat ios Equity raised/(repaid) 1,000 8,743 - 225 -

    Inventory days 188 202 174 169 165 Debt raised/(repaid) 11,225 27,161 12,000 1,200 (7,000)

    Creditors days 94 75 85 85 88 Dividend (incl. tax) (173) (230) (316) (236) (472)

    Debtor days 111 96 97 96 96 Others (incl extraordinaries) 4,715 (1,330) 335 1,112 602

    Working capital days 200 196 175 189 191 Net cash from financing 16,767 34,344 12,019 2,301 (6,871)

    Gross asset turnover (x) 0.8 0.7 0.9 1.0 1.1 Change in cash position (12,777) 9,832 (4,048) 297 (4,707)

    Net asset turnover (x) 0.9 0.9 1.2 1.3 1.5 Closing cash 4,274 14,107 10,059 10,356 5,649

    Sales /opera ting assets (x ) 0.6 0.6 0.9 1.2 1.5

    Current ratio (x) 4.6 6.5 4.6 4.3 3.9 Quarterly financials

    Debt-equity (x) 3.6 3.5 3.5 3.0 2.3 (Rs mn) Q1FY11 Q2FY11 Q3FY11 Q4FY11 Q1FY12

    Net debt/equity (x) 3.4 3.0 3.2 2.7 2.1 Net sa les 10,990 14,515 16,126 22,029 16,449

    Interest coverage 1.0 1.3 1.6 1.9 2.4 Change (q-o-q) 647% 32% 11% 37% -25%

    EBITDA 3,268 4,158 4,654 5,578 4,522

    Per share Change (q-o-q) 663% 27% 12% 20% -19%

    FY09 FY10 FY11# FY12E FY13E EBITDA margin 29.7% 28.6% 28.9% 25.3% 27.5%

    Adj EPS (Rs) (4.2) 1.2 4.2 6.4 9.8 PAT 465 798 905 1,601 47

    CEPS 8.0 5.9 11.7 14.5 18.8 Adj PAT 465 79 8 90 5 1,601 57 8

    Book value 97.7 34.7 39.0 45.6 55.6 Change (q-o-q) -51% 72% 13% 77% -64%

    Dividend (Rs) 0.9 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.5 Adj PAT margin 4.2% 5.5% 5.6% 7.3% 3.5%

    Actual o/s shares (mn) 197.0 787.8 787.8 810.3 810.3 Adj EPS 0.6 1.0 1.1 2.0 0.73

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    CRISIL Limited. All Rights Reserved.

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    Email : [email protected] I Phone : 9821638322

    Kolkata / Delhi

    Priyanka Agarwal - Manager, Business Development

    Email : [email protected] I Phone : 9903060685

    Mumbai / Pune

    Vivek Tandon - Manager, Business Development

    Email : [email protected] I Phone : 9903060685

    Ahmedabad / Mumbai

    Vishal Shah - Manager, Business Development

    Email : [email protected] I Phone : 9820598908

    Bengaluru

    Gayathri Ananth Senior Manager, Business Development

    Email : [email protected] I Phone : 9886498175

    Chennai / Hyderabad

    Kaliprasad Ponnuru - Manager, Business Development

    Email : [email protected] I Phone : 9642004668