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www.citadelle.in Questions Insight Analysis Action “Modified Expectations” India Strategy | June 2015

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Page 1: Alpha edge - June 2015

www.citadelle.in

Questions

Insight

Analysis

Action

“Modified Expectations”

India Strategy | June 2015

Page 2: Alpha edge - June 2015
Page 3: Alpha edge - June 2015

June 2015 3

Modified expectations

India Strategy | June, 2015

Foreword

Dear Investor,

The month of May has seen some short covering and markets were up in the fag-end of May

on an aggressive RBI rate cut expectations.

At the dawn of 2014, India was plagued with sluggish economic growth, spiraling inflation,

twin deficit problem, a sharply falling Rupee, a paralyzed government and a deteriorating moral fabric caused by

corruption seeping into the core of our society.

The month of May was marked by a triumphant victory at the Centre. After a gap of thirty years, a national party, on its

own, recorded a clear mandate and formed the government. The BJP’s very successful campaign was based on a key

agenda of development coupled with tackling jobs, growth, inflation and corruption.

Modi led government with an attempt to show the world that democracy doesn’t equate with sluggishness and

inefficiency and that free people are capable of internal regeneration and reform has come with slew of strategic

reforms. Rather than playing a 20-20 innings, He is playing for a steady Test match innings.

We have seen very few ‘Big-bang’ reforms but the plethora of low-key administrative reforms by his government would

be instrumental for improving efficiencies in the system, reduce cost of land, capital and labour leading to lower inflation. Lower inflation should then result in structurally lower interest rates, a stable CAD, a stable INR and a more competitive environment for the economy to grow at a higher trajectory.

We believe that the measures taken by Indian government are more long term and focus on improving efficiencies in the system, reduce cost of land, capital and labour leading to lower inflation. Lower inflation should then result in structurally lower interest rates, a stable CAD, a stable INR and a more competitive manufacturing sector. Patience is the key.

According to us, India seems poised to go through a period of consolidation before taking off. In the short term markets may drift down to around to Nifty 7600 +/- 200 points. This corrective phase, to my mind, will be the real buying opportunity, but your conviction will get tested as we reach there. While it may or may not be the market bottom, we are sure that we are near an economic bottom. Corporate Profit to GDP as a ratio is at 15 year low. Usually this gloomy point has been the harbinger of markets rallying thereafter like in 2003 & 2009. However, this time around, the markets have rallied much ahead of the turnaround, thanks to Modi Government victory that captured the public imagination. Expectations have run ahead of themselves and now seems to cooling for good. The ‘Modified” expectations now seems to be headed the other way around what with the earnings disappointing and perceptions on reform weakening. Missing the longer term picture and staying out beyond your asset allocation other than tactically, can be costly

Our Direct Equity portfolio – Citadelle Growth Opportunities (CGOP) outperformed its benchmark Nifty by 5.9% and

nearly 86% of all equity oriented Mutual Funds in the country, YTD 2015. We have switched from Crompton Greaves and

Hero Motocorp into Britannia Inds and Ashok Leyland.

Warm Regards,

A V Srikanth

Page 4: Alpha edge - June 2015

June 2015 4

Alpha Edge | “Modified Expectations”

Asset Class performance

Asset Class returns for May 2015

Source: Bloomberg

Equity has been the best performer for May 2015 with returns of 3.08%. Gold has been the worst performer with returns of -2.09% and Long term debt has a paltry performance of 0.42%.

FII Flows for CY 2015

Source: ACEMF

Equity markets have continued with its dismal performance, with India not as popular as it was a year back within the FIIs Net outflow was seen in Equities and Debt markets in May 2015. Equities saw Net Outflow of Rs 5,678.48 Crs whereas Debt market has seen net outflow of Rs 8,504 Crs.

Sector Returns

Source: Bloomberg

Teck, IT, and Oil & Gas have been outperformers for

May 2015. Realty, Power and Metal have been the

laggards during the same period.

3.08%

0.42%0.71%

-2.09%-3.00%

-2.00%

-1.00%

0.00%

1.00%

2.00%

3.00%

4.00%

Equity 10 yrTreasuries

Cash Gold

Asset Class Returns For May 2015

47 3771

-53

83133

-3

128 113 9742

-6

4

9

12

5

46

42

35

-51

160

38

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

CYT

D

FII F

low

s (i

n `

00

0 C

rs)

Equity Debt

-2

-1

-1

2

2

3

3

3

3

3

3

4

4

5

5

6

-12 0 12

S&P BSE Realty

S&P BSE Power

S&P BSE METAL

S&P BSE Capital Goods

S&P BSE BANKEX

S&P BSE Consumer Durables

S&P BSE Mid-Cap

S&P BSE SENSEX

S&P BSE Small-Cap

S&P BSE FMCG

S&P BSE PSU

S&P BSE AUTO

S&P BSE Health Care

S&P BSE OIL & GAS

S&P BSE IT

S&P BSE TECk

Sector Returns for May 2015 (%)

Page 5: Alpha edge - June 2015

June 2015 5

Alpha Edge | “Modified Expectations”

Global Macro

Inflation:

US

Consumer prices in the United States went down 0.2% year-on-year in April, following a 0.1% drop in March due to falling energy cost. Yet, core inflation was unchanged at 1.8%, beating market forecasts.

The decline was driven by the energy index, which fell 19.4% over the last 12 months, with all the major components declining except electricity. The food index rose 2.0%over the last year, and the index for all items less food and energy rose 1.8%.

On a monthly basis, consumer prices increased 0.1% in April, down from 0.2% in March. The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.3% and led to the slight increase in the seasonally adjusted all items index. The index for shelter rose, as did the indexes for medical care, household furnishings and operations, used cars and trucks, and new vehicles. In contrast, the indexes for apparel and airline fares declined in April.

Eurozone:

Consumer prices in the Eurozone were unchanged year-on-year in April after falling in the previous four months and matching preliminary estimates. Monthly inflation slowed to 0.2%.

The largest upward impacts to euro area annual inflation came from restaurants & cafés (+0.10%), rents (+0.08%) and vegetables (+0.07%), while fuels for transport (-0.42%), heating oil (-0.17%) and gas (-0.07%) had the biggest downward impacts.

Annual core inflation rate which excludes prices of energy, food, alcohol and tobacco was recorded at 0.6%, the same as in the previous month.

In April 2015, negative annual rates were observed in twelve Member States. The lowest annual rates were registered in Greece (-1.8%), Cyprus (-1.7%), Bulgaria and Poland (both -0.9%). The highest annual rates were recorded in Malta (1.4%) and Austria (0.9%). Compared with March 2015, annual inflation fell in nine Member States, remained stable in one and rose in seventeen.

China

China's annual inflation rate was recorded at 1.5% in

April of 2015, edging up from 1.4% increase in the

previous month and slightly below market consensus.

The politically sensitive food prices increased by 2.7%

while non-food cost rose at a slower 0.9%.

Among food, the biggest upward pressure came from

cost of: fresh vegetables (+7.2% in April from +0.4% in

March), fresh fruits (+1.5% from +6.7%) and pork

(+8.3%, from +2%). In contrast, downward pressure

came from egg (-3.7% from a 5.6%), liquid milk and

dairy products (-1.7% from -1.7%) and liqueur (-1.3%

from -1.4%).

For non-food categories, the biggest price increases

were reported for: healthcare and personal products

(+1.8% from +1.6%) and education services (+3.2% from

+3.2%). Cost of clothing (+2.9% from +3.0%) and

household equipment and maintenance (+1.1% from

+1.2%) moderated. In contrast, downward pressure

came from transport and communications (-1.6% from -

1.5%); travel (-0.7% from -1.3%).

The producer price index fell by 4.6% from a year earlier

in April, the same as in April. The index has been

declining since March 2012.

Japan: Consumer prices in Japan rose 0.6 % on a year in April, slowly increasing as the effects of last year's decline in oil prices deteriorates.

An increase in Japan's sales tax hike last April inflated consumer inflation by 2% until March this year, according to Bank of Japan estimates. Still, there is a 0.3 point boost from the tax hike for this year's April CPI as some companies waited until May last year in passing on the tax hike.

Year-on-year, the biggest price increases were reported for: food (+2.7%); fuel, light and water (+2.2%) and clothes and footwear (+1.8%). Cost decreases were reported for: transportation and communication (-2.4%) and culture and recreation (-0.1%).

Core consumer prices, which includes oil products but excludes fresh food prices, rose 0.3% in April from a year earlier, much below the central bank's 2% target.

Page 6: Alpha edge - June 2015

June 2015 6

Alpha Edge | “Modified Expectations”

Interest Rates: US

Growth in real gross domestic product of roughly 2-1/2 % per year over the next couple of years, a little faster than the pace of the recovery thus far, with the unemployment rate continuing to move down to near 5 % by the end of this year. And for inflation, as I noted earlier, my colleagues and I expect inflation to move up toward our objective of 2 % as the economy strengthens further and as transitory influences wane. If the economy continues to improve as the Fed expect, it will be appropriate at some point this year to take the initial step to raise the federal funds rate target and begin the process of normalizing monetary policy. To support taking this step, however, they will need to see continued improvement in labor market conditions, and will need to be reasonably confident that inflation will move back to 2 % over the medium term.

Eurozone

The interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility were left on hold at 0.30% and -0.20% respectively. The ECB considers its bond-buying program is working as intended but stressed a strong signal needs to be sent to Euro Area governments urging them to press with structural reforms. The ECB would increase asset purchases in May and June to account for lower market liquidity in the summer holidays in July and August. Members generally agreed that a steady hand and the firm implementation of the measures decided in January 2015 would best serve to support the economic recovery and a return of inflation towards 2%. There was hence no need to consider any change in the monetary policy stance at present or to reconsider any of the parameters of the PSPP decided on 22 January 2015. Looking ahead, the ECB’s focus will be on full implementation of the monetary policy measures. Through these measures, it will contribute to a further improvement in the economic outlook, a reduction in economic slack and a recovery in money and credit growth. Together, such developments will lead to a sustained return of inflation towards a level below, but close to, 2% over the medium term and will underpin the firm anchoring of medium to long-term inflation expectations.

China The People's Bank of China cut its benchmark lending rates by 25 basis points to 5.1 % on May 10th. It is the third reduction since November prompted by low growth, declining property prices. The central bank also reduced one-year benchmark deposit rates by 25 basis points to 2.25 %. China's economy is still facing relatively big downward pressure, the overall level of domestic prices remains low, and real interest rates are still higher than the historical average, the PBOC said. The Chinese economy expanded 7.0 % in the first quarter of 2015, down from a 7.3 % increase in the previous three-month period. It is the lowest growth rate since the March quarter of 2009, due to a slowdown in manufacturing and property investment. Annual inflation rate has been below 2 % since September. The producer price index fell by 4.6 % in April and has been declining since March 2012.

Japan The Bank of Japan pledged it would continue buying enough government bonds to increase the monetary base at an annual pace of about 80 trillion yen. Policymakers said the economy has continued to recover moderately, raising its view of consumer spending and housing investment while noticing a moderate declining trend of public investment. Quantitative and qualitative monetary easing (QQE) has been exerting its intended effects, and the Bank will continue with the QQE, aiming to achieve the price stability target of 2 %, as long as it is necessary for maintaining that target in a stable manner. It will examine both upside and downside risks to economic activity and prices, and make adjustments as appropriate.

Page 7: Alpha edge - June 2015

June 2015 7

Alpha Edge | “Modified Expectations”

Domestic Macro Inflation:

Source: rbi.org

The WPI and CPI both have seen some pressure in the

month of April. CPI inflation in India slowed for the

second consecutive month to 4.87% in April of 2015

from an upwardly revised 5.25% in March, as lower

food inflation more than offset the impact of a rise in

core (CPI ex-food and fuel) inflation.

Cost of food and beverages rose 5.36% in April, down

from 6.2% in March, provisional estimates showed.

The food alone index rose 5.11% compared with 6.14%

in March suggesting no aggregate impact of

unseasonal rains. Cost of vegetables slowed sharply to

6.63% (11.26% in the previous month) and fruit prices

eased to 5.08% (7.41% in the previous month). Cost of

meat and fish increased 5.5%; snacks, prepared meals

and sweets rose 7.68%; milk went up 8.21% and spices

surged 8.7%. In contrast, price decreases were

reported for sugar (-5.99%) and egg (-1.46%).

However, core CPI inflation rose to 4.3% y-o-y owing

to a sequential pick-up in inflation of personal care

items and slower deflation in transport and

communication.

Cost of fuel and light rose 5.6% in April, up from 5.07%

in March. Prices of clothing and footwear eased to

6.15% (6.27% in the previous month) while growth in

housing cost slowed to 4.65% (4.77% in the previous

month). In addition, transport and communication

cost fell 0.9% compared to 1.35% decline in March.

The corresponding provisional inflation rates for rural

and urban areas for April of 2015 are 5.37% and

4.36%.

Indian wholesale prices fell 2.65% year-on-year in April

of 2015, following a 2.33% drop in the previous

month, as petrol prices declined further while food

cost slowed. The index has been in the negative

territory since November 2014.

Year-on-year, petrol prices fell 18.44%, following a

17.70% drop in the previous month and cost of diesel

decreased by 14.39%, following a 12.11% fall in March.

Food prices rose 5.73%, slowing from a 6.31% increase

in March. Among food prices, onion recorded the

highest increase (+29.97%), followed by pulses

(+15.38%), fruits (+14.22%); milk (+7.42%); egg, meat

& fish (+4.01%); wheat (+1.79%) and cereals (+0.39%).

In contrast, prices fell for potato (-41.14%), minerals (-

28.65%), fibres (-13.81%), non-food articles (-6.18%),

oil seeds (-1.80%), vegetables (-1.32%) and rice (-

0.04%).

In April, cost of manufactured products declined by

0.52% from a 0.19% drop in the previous month.

On a monthly basis, wholesale prices declined 0.1%,

following a 0.2% increase in March.

8.598.287.317.967.73

6.465.52

4.38 5 5.195.375.254.87

5.556.185.665.413.742.381.66

-0.17-0.5-0.95-2.06-2.33-2.65

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

Ap

r-1

4

May

-14

Jun

-14

Jul-

14

Au

g-1

4

Sep

-14

Oct

-14

No

v-1

4

Dec

-14

Jan

-15

Feb

-15

Mar

-15

Ap

r-1

5

Divergence in CPI and WPI

CPI WPI

Page 8: Alpha edge - June 2015

June 2015 8

Alpha Edge | “Modified Expectations”

Interest Rates: The Reserve Bank of India cut its benchmark policy rate

by 25 bps to 7.25% as expected during the June 2nd

meeting saying that the move is a more appropriate

given low capacity utilization, mixed indicators of

recovery, and subdued investment and credit growth. While RBI expects the banks to pass on its cumulative

75bp rate cut ‘fully’ to customers, this may prove

difficult—given the tight liquidity conditions and NPA

overhang faced by banks.

RBI raised its inflation forecast to 6% by Jan-16 from

5.8% by Mar-16. It also lowered its FY16 GDP growth

estimate to 7.6% from 7.8%.

RBI highlighted the need for a contingency plan to deal

with monsoon uncertainties.

RBI referred to the current rate action as ‘front-loaded’,

thus effectively putting to rest expectations of another

rate cut in Aug-15.

Reserve Bank of India also decided to

Continue with cash reserve ratio at 4% of net

demand and time liabilities (NDTL).

Continue with statutory liquidity ratio SLR at

21.50%, as the banks are holding excess SLR of

6—7% of NDTL over the statutory requirement,

the case for another SLR cut today was rather

weak, at least as a short to medium-term

measure.

lower the reverse repo rate by a quarter point

to 6.25% at 100 bps lower than the repo while

the Marginal Standing Facility (MSF) rate is also

cut by 25 bps and remains 100 bps higher than

the repo rate at 8.25%.

Page 9: Alpha edge - June 2015

June 2015 9

Alpha Edge | “Modified Expectations”

Industrial Production:

Source: rbi.org

Industrial production (IP) growth moderated to 2.1% y-o-

y in March from 4.9% y-o-y in February, below

expectations (Consensus: 3.0%)

On the demand side, capital goods output growth

remained strong (7.6% y-o-y) for the fifth consecutive

month, suggesting an improvement in investment

activity is under way.

This is consistent with higher medium and heavy

commercial vehicle production, improved imports and

the pick-up in new investment projects announced in Q1

2015. In contrast, consumer goods output fell by 0.7% y-

o-y after rising by 5.1% y-o-y in February owing to a

slowdown in both durable and non-durable goods,

reflecting softening rural demand. Data issues

(shutdown of telecom equipment manufacturer) may

also be behind this trend. Excluding ‘radio, TV &

communication equipment’, IP growth was higher at

4.1% y-o-y in March.

Source: rbi.org

Momentum was also weak, with IP falling by 1.1% m-o-

m, seasonally adjusted.

Mining growth slowed to 0.9% y-o-y from 2.5% y-o-y in

March, indicating that supply constraints are still not

fully resolved. Electricity growth fell sharply (1.7% y-o-y

from

5.9% y-o-y in February) and manufacturing growth also

moderated to 2.2% y-o-y from 5.2% y-o-y in February.

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

Feb

/11

Jun

/11

Oct

/11

Feb

/12

Jun

/12

Oct

/12

Feb

/13

Jun

/13

Oct

/13

Feb

/14

Jun

/14

Oct

/14

Feb

/15

Basic Goods Capital Goods

Consumer Durables Consumer Non-durables

Intermediate Goods

-10.0%

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

Feb

/11

Jun

/11

Oct

/11

Feb

/12

Jun

/12

Oct

/12

Feb

/13

Jun

/13

Oct

/13

Feb

/14

Jun

/14

Oct

/14

Feb

/15

Electricity General Index

Manufacturing Mining & Quarrying

Page 10: Alpha edge - June 2015

June 2015 10

Alpha Edge | “Modified Expectations”

Earnings Update:

Technology

IT firms posted a poor set of numbers with Infosys

earning numbers were 5% down QoQ. TCS and HCL

Technologies were major disappointments with -30%

and -12% de-growth on a QoQ basis.

Tech Mahindra reported a weak Q4 with

revenue/EBIT/PAT missing estimates by 1%/21%/36%

due to currency headwinds, wage hikes and

consolidation of ‘low margin’ LCC/Softgen acquisitions

After poor set of numbers posted by IT firms, there was

not much to cheer during the last month.

Financials

Axis Bank delivered decent set of numbers. Asset quality

surprised positively in an otherwise weak and

challenging quarter for banks. Gross slippages of INR6bn

were much better than expected (INR10bn).

HDFC Bank reported Q4FY15 PAT of INR28bn, in-line

with our estimate, benefitting from better core revenue

momentum. But both ICICI and HDFC were below

expectations.

Auto and Auto-ancillaries

Maruti Suzuki reported a healthy performance driven by

a strong operating performance, which was better than

expectations. A key contributor towards this strong

operating performance was higher gross margin due to

benefits arising from cost reduction, favourable currency

movement, lower commodity prices and lower sales

promotion expenses.

Hero Motocorp’s revenues were flat, and net profit for

quarter was 14% down, however FY15 earnings number

show a 13% growth over FY14. Margins remained

subdued at 12.3%. It attributed this to higher R&D (1.1%

vs 0.5% YoY) and marketing spends (2.5% vs 2% YoY).

TVS motor’s 4QFY15 performance was in line with

estimates, with reported EBITDA at ~INR1.5b. Net sales

grew 13.8% YoY (-7.4% QoQ) to INR24.6b (in-line with

est.), driven by volume growth of 6.6% YoY (-8.2% QoQ)

to 601,926 units.

Bharat Forge reported F4Q15 results wherein on a

standalone basis, the top line, EBITDA and net income

grew 32%, 56% and 83% YoY, respectively.

Eicher Motors’ consolidated sales grew 33% YoY and

EBITDA margin expanded 272bp to the highest ever

14.3% led by price hikes and operating leverage in the RE

(Royal Enfield) business.

Cement

Cement has seen low levels of realizations in the month

of March which have thwarted their JFM quarter

numbers.

But UltraTech Cement’s Q4FY15 EBIDTA of INR13.1bn

(up 6% YoY) was ~4% ahead of estimate led by low

energy cost/t (down 9% QoQ due to sharp increase in

pet coke consumption to 64% from 51% in Q3FY15).

Shree Cement reported an EBITDA/t of Rs 831/t (-23.7%

YoY, +15.1% QoQ) even as volume growth grinded to a

near halt (4.0 mTPA, 3.0% YoY). Realizations surprised

positively (Rs 3,701, +4.4% QoQ, -4.5% YoY) likely driven

by sharp price hikes in mid-March.

Energy

Another laggard within Nifty 50 was Cairn India, which

has reported net loss of Rs. 240 Crs.

Page 11: Alpha edge - June 2015

June 2015 11

Alpha Edge | “Modified Expectations”

Modified Expectations: At the dawn of 2014, India was plagued with sluggish economic growth, spiraling inflation, twin deficit problem, a sharply falling Rupee, a paralyzed government and a deteriorating moral fabric caused by corruption seeping into the core of our society. The month of May was marked by a triumphant victory at the Centre. After a gap of thirty years, a national party, on its own, recorded a clear mandate and formed the government. The BJP’s very successful campaign was based on a key agenda of development coupled with tackling jobs, growth, inflation and corruption. The Modi led government had no big-bang reforms yet, but low-key administrative reforms that the government has started are truly remarkable. Noteworthy ones include:

tapping foreign flows for defence through FDI, railways and construction,

Direct Benefit Transfer for LPG subsidies to bring control over the subsidy leakages

initiatives to streamline various government approvals,

moves towards a stable and simplified tax regime,

stable policy for gas price determination, easier financing via a 5/25 structure for

banks, favourable norms and contingencies for road

development, 3 new social security schemes have been

proposed which offers pension, natural death insurance and accidental death insurance for rural poor.

strong moves towards financial inclusion, proactive inflation management, and new foreign trade policy to spur exports.

While ‘big-bang’ reforms were fewer, we sense that the government’s modus operandi in the first year was to accumulate low-hanging fruits with an increased focus on efficiency and removing hurdles for companies and enterprises to run a hassle-free profitable business.

We would like to ponder on few important issues which the government is taking care of by its reforms.

India has a savings rate of 30%, despite this, India is characterised by a high cost of debt capital and poor accessibility to capital, as more than two-thirds of India’s household savings are held in physical form, which includes real estate and gold. Pradhan Mantri Jan Dhan Yojana, the most ambitious financial inclusion programme and Gold Monetization Scheme will be crucial in expanding the white economy and putting curb on the black money. The Government has created an online system for environmental and industrial clearances. A similar system has been created for labour inspections at factories. The direct transfer of benefits, started mostly in scholarship schemes, is set to be further expanded with a view to increasing the number of beneficiaries from the present 10mn (i.e. 0.8% of India’s population) to 103mn (i.e. 9% of India’s population). Similarly, Rs63bn (i.e. 0.1% of GDP) has so far been transferred directly as LPG subsidy to 115mn LPG consumers. The Government plans to ramp-up this platform so as to disburse kerosene (i.e. 0.1% of GDP) as well as food subsidies (i.e. 1% of GDP) through this platform by end-CY15. Transparency in governance and efficiency in subsidy distribution will help government to disrupt crony capitalism which had a strong foothold in the previous government’s period. We believe that the measures taken by Indian government are more long term and focus on improving efficiencies in the system, reduce cost of land, capital and labour leading to lower inflation. Lower inflation should then result in structurally lower interest rates, a stable CAD, a stable INR and a more competitive manufacturing sector.

Page 12: Alpha edge - June 2015

June 2015 12

Alpha Edge | “Modified Expectations”

Model Portfolio: Conservative

Conservative Market Cap wise (%)

Asset Class Sub-Asset Class Mutual Fund Schemes

Strategic

Tactical

Large cap Mid &

Small cap

Others

Equity - - PMS - - Large Cap - - ICICI Pru Focused BlueChip Eq Fund - - 91.2 3.9 4.8

UTI Opportunities Fund - - 83.7 13.4 2.9

Mirae Asset India Opportunities Fund - - 72.9 23.2 3.8

Mid & Small Cap - - Religare Invesco Mid N Small Cap Fund - - 29.8 66.7 5.5

HDFC Mid-Cap Opportunities Fund - - 24.6 70.8 2.8

BNP Paribas Mid Cap Fund - - 34.9 63.6 2.2

Multi Cap - - L&T India Spl.Situations Fund - - 53.2 43.0 3.8

ICICI Pru Value Discovery Fund-Reg - - 50.0 40.5 9.5

Franklin India High Growth Cos Fund - - 54.1 30.9 15.0

Thematic / Sectoral Funds - - Equity Hybrid Funds - - Average

Maturity Years

Mod

Duration Years

YTM

(%)

Debt 90.0% 92.5% Short Term 30.0% 30.0% Axis Short Term Fund 10.0% 10.0% 2.6 2.1 8.5

Franklin India ST Income Plan 10.0% 10.0% 2.7 2.5 10.5

HDFC STP 10.0% 10.0% 2.2 1.7 10.0

Dynamic Bond Funds 30.0% 32.5% IDFC Dynamic Bond Fund-Reg 10.0% 10.8% 15.4 8.6 7.8

SBI Dynamic Bond 10.0% 10.8% 15.4 7.8 7.9

UTI Dynamic Bond Fund-Reg 10.0% 10.8% 13.6 NA NA

Income Funds 30.0% 30.0% DWS Premier Bond Fund 10.0% 10.0% 2.2 1.8 8.4

HDFC Income Fund 10.0% 10.0% 14.6 7.5 8.0

UTI Bond Fund 10.0% 10.0% 14.3 NA NA

Gilt - - Debt Hybrid Funds - -

Cash 5.0% 5.0% Liquid Funds - - Ultra Short Term 5.0% 5.0%

Gold 5.0% 2.5% Gold 5.0% 2.5% Total 100.0% 100.0%

0.0%

90.0%

5.0%5.0%

Strategic Portfolio

Equity Debt Cash Gold

0.0%

92.5%

5.0%2.5%

Tactical Portfolio

Equity Debt Cash Gold

98.0

100.0

102.0

104.0

Dec

-14

Jan

-15

Feb

-15

Mar

-15

Ap

r-1

5

May

-15

Conservative UCI Index

Page 13: Alpha edge - June 2015

June 2015 13

Alpha Edge | “Modified Expectations”

Model Portfolio: Moderately Conservative

Mod Conservative Market Cap wise (%)

Asset Class Sub-Asset Class Mutual Fund Schemes

Strategic

Tactical

Large cap Mid &

Small cap

Others

Equity 25.0% 25.0% PMS - - Large Cap 25.0% 25.0% ICICI Pru Focused BlueChip Eq Fund 8.3% 8.3% 91.2 3.9 4.8

UTI Opportunities Fund 8.3% 8.3% 83.7 13.4 2.9

Mirae Asset India Opportunities Fund 8.3% 8.3% 72.9 23.2 3.8

Mid & Small Cap - - Religare Invesco Mid N Small Cap Fund - - 29.8 66.7 5.5

HDFC Mid-Cap Opportunities Fund - - 24.6 70.8 2.8

BNP Paribas Mid Cap Fund - - 34.9 63.6 2.2

Multi Cap - - L&T India Spl.Situations Fund - - 53.2 43.0 3.8

ICICI Pru Value Discovery Fund-Reg - - 50.0 40.5 9.5

Franklin India High Growth Cos Fund - - 54.1 30.9 15.0

Thematic / Sectoral Funds - - Equity Hybrid Funds - - Average

Maturity Years

Mod

Duration Years

YTM

(%)

Debt 65.0% 67.5% Short Term 30.0% 30.0% Axis Short Term Fund 10.0% 10.0% 2.6 2.1 8.5

Franklin India ST Income Plan 10.0% 10.0% 2.7 2.5 10.5

HDFC STP 10.0% 10.0% 2.2 1.7 10.0 Dynamic Bond Funds 30.0% 32.5%

IDFC Dynamic Bond Fund-Reg 10.0% 10.8% 15.4 8.6 7.8

SBI Dynamic Bond 10.0% 10.8% 15.4 7.8 7.9

UTI Dynamic Bond Fund-Reg 10.0% 10.8% 13.6 NA NA

Income Funds 5.0% 5.0% DWS Premier Bond Fund 1.7% 1.7% 2.2 1.8 8.4

HDFC Income Fund 1.7% 1.7% 14.6 7.5 8.0

UTI Bond Fund 1.7% 1.7% 14.3 NA NA

Gilt - - Debt Hybrid Funds - -

Cash 5.0% 5.0% Liquid Funds - - Ultra Short Term 5.0% 5.0%

Gold 5.0% 2.5% Gold 5.0% 2.5% Total 100.0% 100.0%

25.0%

65.0%

5.0%5.0%

Strategic Portfolio

Equity Debt Cash Gold

25.0%

67.5%

5.0% 2.5%

Tactical Portfolio

Equity Debt Cash Gold

96.0

98.0

100.0

102.0

104.0

Dec

-14

Jan

-15

Feb

-15

Mar

-15

Ap

r-1

5

May

-15

Mod Conservative UCI Index

Page 14: Alpha edge - June 2015

June 2015 14

Alpha Edge | “Modified Expectations”

Model Portfolio: Balanced

Balanced Market Cap wise (%)

Asset Class Sub-Asset Class Mutual Fund Schemes

Strategic

Tactical

Large cap Mid & Small cap

Others

Equity 45.0% 45.0% PMS - - Large Cap 30.0% 30.0% ICICI Pru Focused BlueChip Eq Fund 10.0% 10.0% 91.2 3.9 4.8

UTI Opportunities Fund 10.0% 10.0% 83.7 13.4 2.9

Mirae Asset India Opportunities Fund 10.0% 10.0% 72.9 23.2 3.8

Mid & Small Cap 15.0% 7.5% Religare Invesco Mid N Small Cap Fund 5.0% 2.5% 29.8 66.7 5.5

HDFC Mid-Cap Opportunities Fund 5.0% 2.5% 24.6 70.8 2.8

BNP Paribas Mid Cap Fund 5.0% 2.5% 34.9 63.6 2.2

Multi Cap - - L&T India Spl.Situations Fund - - 53.2 43.0 3.8

ICICI Pru Value Discovery Fund-Reg - - 50.0 40.5 9.5

Franklin India High Growth Cos Fund - - 54.1 30.9 15.0

Thematic / Sectoral Funds - - Equity Hybrid Funds - 7.5% Edelweiss Absolute Return Fund 7.5%

%

Average Maturity Years

Mod Duration Years

YTM (%)

Debt 45.0% 50.0% Short Term 30.0% 30.0% Axis Short Term Fund 10.0% 10.0% 2.6 2.1 8.5

Franklin India ST Income Plan 10.0% 10.0% 2.7 2.5 10.5

HDFC STP 10.0% 10.0% 2.2 1.7 10.0

Dynamic Bond Funds 15.0% 20.0% IDFC Dynamic Bond Fund-Reg 5.0% 6.7% 15.4 8.6 7.8

SBI Dynamic Bond 5.0% 6.7% 15.4 7.8 7.9

UTI Dynamic Bond Fund-Reg 5.0% 6.7% 13.6 NA NA

Income Funds - - DWS Premier Bond Fund - - 2.2 1.8 8.4

HDFC Income Fund - - 14.6 7.5 8.0

UTI Bond Fund - - 14.3 NA NA

Gilt - - Debt Hybrid Funds - - DSPBR Dynamic Asset Allocation Fund - - - - -

Cash - - Liquid Funds - - Ultra Short Term - -

Gold 10.0% 5.0% Gold 100.0% 100.0%

45.0%

45.0%

0.0%

10.0%

Strategic Portfolio

Equity Debt Cash Gold

45.0%50.0%

0.0%

5.0%

Tactical Portfolio

Equity Debt Cash Gold

96.0

98.0

100.0

102.0

104.0

106.0

Dec

-14

Jan

-15

Feb

-15

Mar

-15

Ap

r-1

5

May

-15

Balanced UCI Index

Page 15: Alpha edge - June 2015

June 2015 15

Alpha Edge | “Modified Expectations”

Model Portfolio: Moderately Aggressive

Mod Aggressive Market Cap wise (%)

Asset Class Sub-Asset Class Mutual Fund Schemes

Strategic

Tactical

Large cap Mid & Small cap

Others

Equity 70.0% 70.0% PMS - - Large Cap 30.0% 30.0% ICICI Pru Focused BlueChip Eq Fund 10.0% 10.0% 91.2 3.9 4.8

UTI Opportunities Fund 10.0% 10.0% 83.7 13.4 2.9

Mirae Asset India Opportunities Fund 10.0% 10.0% 72.9 23.2 3.8

Mid & Small Cap 30.0% 12.0% Religare Invesco Mid N Small Cap Fund 10.0% 4.0% 29.8 66.7 5.5

HDFC Mid-Cap Opportunities Fund 10.0% 4.0% 24.6 70.8 2.8

BNP Paribas Mid Cap Fund 10.0% 4.0% 34.9 63.6 2.2

Multi Cap 10.0% 6.7% L&T India Spl.Situations Fund 3.3% 2.2% 53.2 43.0 3.8

ICICI Pru Value Discovery Fund-Reg 3.3% 2.2% 50.0 40.5 9.5

Franklin India High Growth Cos Fund 3.3% 2.2% 54.1 30.9 15.0

Thematic / Sectoral Funds - - Equity Hybrid Funds - 21.3% Edelweiss Absolute Return Fund 21.3% Average

Maturity Years

Mod

Duration Years

YTM

(%) Debt 20.0% 25.0%

Short Term 20.0% 20.0% Axis Short Term Fund 6.7% 6.7% 2.6 2.1 8.5

Franklin India ST Income Plan 6.7% 6.7% 2.7 2.5 10.5

HDFC STP 6.7% 6.7% 2.2 1.7 10.0

Dynamic Bond Funds - 5.0% IDFC Dynamic Bond Fund-Reg - 1.7% 15.4 8.6 7.8

SBI Dynamic Bond - 1.7% 15.4 7.8 7.9

UTI Dynamic Bond Fund-Reg - 1.7% 13.6 NA NA

Income Funds - - DWS Premier Bond Fund - - 2.2 1.8 8.4

HDFC Income Fund - - 14.6 7.5 8.0

UTI Bond Fund - - 14.3 NA NA

Gilt - - Debt Hybrid Funds - - DSPBR Dynamic Asset Allocation Fund - - - - -

Cash - -

Liquid Funds - - Ultra Short Term - -

Gold 10.0% 5.0%

Gold 10.0% 5.0% Total 100.0% 100.0%

70.0%

20.0%

0.0%10.0%

Strategic Portfolio

Equity Debt Cash Gold

70.0%

25.0%

0.0%5.0%

Tactical Portfolio

Equity Debt Cash Gold

90.0

95.0

100.0

105.0

110.0

Dec

-14

Jan

-15

Feb

-15

Mar

-15

Ap

r-1

5

May

-15

Mod Aggressive UCI Index

Page 16: Alpha edge - June 2015

June 2015 16

Alpha Edge | “Modified Expectations”

Model Portfolio: Aggressive

Aggressive Market Cap wise (%)

Asset Class Sub-Asset Class Mutual Fund Schemes

Strategic

Tactical

Large cap Mid & Small cap

Others

Equity 90.0% 90.0% PMS - - Large Cap 30.0% 30.0% ICICI Pru Focused BlueChip Eq Fund 10.0% 10.0% 91.2 3.9 4.8

UTI Opportunities Fund 10.0% 10.0% 83.7 13.4 2.9

Mirae Asset India Opportunities Fund 10.0% 10.0% 72.9 23.2 3.8

Mid & Small Cap 30.0% 15.0% Religare Invesco Mid N Small Cap Fund 10.0% 5.0% 29.8 66.7 5.5

HDFC Mid-Cap Opportunities Fund 10.0% 5.0% 24.6 70.8 2.8

BNP Paribas Mid Cap Fund 10.0% 5.0% 34.9 63.6 2.2

Multi Cap 30.0% 20.0% L&T India Spl.Situations Fund 10.0% 6.7% 53.2 43.0 3.8

ICICI Pru Value Discovery Fund-Reg 10.0% 6.7% 50.0 40.5 9.5

Franklin India High Growth Cos Fund 10.0% 6.7% 54.1 30.9 15.0

Thematic / Sectoral Funds - - Equity Hybrid Funds - 25.0% Edelweiss Absolute Return Fund 25.0% Average

Maturity Years

Mod

Duration Years

YTM

(%)

Debt - 5.0% Short Term - - Axis Short Term Fund - - 2.6 2.1 8.5

Franklin India ST Income Plan - - 2.7 2.5 10.5

HDFC STP - - 2.2 1.7 10.0

Dynamic Bond Funds - 5.0% IDFC Dynamic Bond Fund-Reg - 1.7% 15.4 8.6 7.8

SBI Dynamic Bond - 1.7% 15.4 7.8 7.9

UTI Dynamic Bond Fund-Reg - 1.7% 13.6 NA NA

Income Funds - - DWS Premier Bond Fund - - 2.2 1.8 8.4

HDFC Income Fund - - 14.6 7.5 8.0

UTI Bond Fund - - 14.3 NA NA

Gilt - - Debt Hybrid Funds - - DSPBR Dynamic Asset Allocation Fund - - - - -

Cash - - Liquid Funds - - Ultra Short Term - -

Gold 10.0% 5.0% Gold 10.0% 5.0% Total 100.0% 100.0%

90.0%

0.0%0.0%10.0%

Strategic Portfolio

Equity Debt Cash Gold

90.0%

5.0%

0.0% 5.0%Tactical Portfolio

Equity Debt Cash Gold

90.0

95.0

100.0

105.0

110.0

Dec

-14

Jan

-15

Feb

-15

Mar

-15

Ap

r-1

5

May

-15

Aggressive Nifty

Page 17: Alpha edge - June 2015

June 2015 17

Alpha Edge | “Modified Expectations”

Citadelle Growth Opportunities Portfolio Company Name

% Allocation

Recommended Price

Market price

% Incr/Decr

Rationale Result Update

Axis Bank Ltd. 5% 502.05 585.25 17%

Axis Bank is geared up to ride the next growth cycle with strong capitalization (12.6% Tier I), healthy ROA (1.7%) and expanding liability franchise (2,505 branches). Leveraging on the strong distribution network AXSB increased the share of retail deposits and CASA increased to 79% as compared 59% in FY11. It has delivered stable numbers with improving margins though economy was at a recovery mode. We remain confident of bank’s ability of strengthening its retail franchise further.

Axis Bank delivered decent set of numbers. Asset quality surprised positively in an otherwise weak and challenging quarter for banks. Gross slippages of INR6bn were much better than expected (INR10bn). One off profits of INR1.6b utilized to build provisioning for contingencies (INR2b).

Bharat Forge Ltd.

5% 942.30 1231.05 31%

It is global leader in forging business having transcontinental presence across India, Germany and Sweden, serving several sectors including automotive, power, oil and gas, etc. CV business will benefit from pre-buying in US before emission norm changes and strong cyclical recovery in India. This coupled with scale-up in PVs would drive strong growth in Auto segment.

Bharat Forge reported F4Q15 results wherein on a standalone basis, the top line, EBITDA and net income grew 32%, 56% and 83% YoY, respectively. EBITDA came in at Rs3.6bn. Volumes grew ~18% YoY to 56,679 tons. However, net realizations at ~INR216k/ton (v/s est. of ~INR221k/ton) declined ~4% QoQ (+11% YoY).

Britannia Industries Ltd.

5% 2548.90 2548.90 0%

Britannia is the market leader in the biscuits

category. Biscuits contribute over 85% of

Company’s consolidated revenue. Over the

years, the company has forayed into other

bakery items and dairy products (constituting

~15% of consolidated revenues). The company

enjoys strong brand equity and has been

consistently ranked amongst the top food brand

in India.

Britannia’s 4QFY15

performance was impressive

and once again highlighted

the superior execution of its

premiumization and cost

containment strategy. Sales,

EBITDA and PAT posted 14%,

49% and 37.2% growth YoY

to INR 18.5b, INR 1.96b and

INR 1.43b. Performance was

led by gross margin

expansion of 360bp YoY to

40.9% (est. 38.7%).

Dewan Housing Fin Corpn Ltd.

5% 395.15 441.75 12%

Dewan Housing is a good play on Tier 2 and Tier 3 cities housing demand growth. Strong visibility on business growth and margins, superior asset quality, healthy provision cover and healthy return ratios augurs well for Dewan Housing.

Dewan Housing Finance’s (DEWH) 4QFY15 PAT grew 15% YoY to INR1.62b. While the net income was in line with our estimate (at INR4.07b, +20% YoY), higher than-expected provisions led to 4.6% below estimate PAT. Healthy AUM growth of +27% YoY (+8.1% QoQ), FY15 reported margins of 2.89% (up18bp v/s FY14); and 6bp YoY increase in NPLs (largely technical in nature) to 84bp were the key highlights

Eicher Motors Ltd.

5% 15103.50 18713.8 24%

Eicher Motors is a leader in Cruise bikes in India and No.2 player in Medium Commercial Vehicles. The management has increased its production target to 280,000 units in CY2014 (from 250,000 units) and is expected that demand can reach 500,000 units in 3-4 years. Eicher Motors will invest Rs. 6 bn over the next two years in the Royal Enfield business to expand capacity in the Oragdum plant.

Consolidated EBITDA grew 65% YoY. Eicher Motors’ consolidated sales grew 33% YoY and EBITDA margin expanded 272bp to the highest ever 14.3% led by price hikes and operating leverage in the RE (Royal Enfield) business.

Page 18: Alpha edge - June 2015

June 2015 18

Alpha Edge | “Modified Expectations”

Company Name

% Allocation

Recommended Price

Market price

% Incr/Decr

Rationale Result Update

Gujarat Pipavav Port Ltd.

5% 206.50 221.25 7%

GPPV is favorably positioned on the West coast which enables access to the global trade route/rich northern hinterland. Strong parentage and robust evacuation further provides comfort. GPPV is expanding its container handling facility from 0.8m TEUs to 1.35m TEUs, which would be key driver of volume growth. In addition, higher throughput of liquid volume (2m tons capacity) would aid volume growth.

Gujarat Pipavav Port’s (GPPL) Q4FY15 PAT of INR669mn was impacted by INR346mn one-time finance cost, partly offset by INR123mn of SFIS& income. EBITDA margin of 57% led to EBITDA/t of INR290, which was higher than INR275/t in Q4CY14 due to tariff hikes effected in Q4FY15. Management is confident of timely commissioning of the under construction project (starting FY17), which will aid GPPL deliver better than- industry cargo growth rate.

HDFC Bank Ltd. 5% 952.00 1051.10 10%

HDFC Bank is best-placed in the current environment, with a CASA ratio of ~45%, growth outlook of at least 1.3x of industry and least asset quality risk.

HDFC Bank reported Q4FY15 PAT of INR28bn, in-line with our estimate, benefitting from better core revenue momentum. Key highlights: 1) NII grew 21% YoY on above‐average loan growth (up 5%) and superior NIMs (4.4%); 2) core fee income maintained momentum for the second consecutive quarter feeding into improvement in core operating profitability (up >20% YoY), sustainability of which will be key to maintain traction; 3) opex continued to run higher with 21% increase, a derivative of front‐end network expansion (added 355 branches in Q4FY15); and

Ashok Leyland Ltd.

5% 71.45 71.45 0%

Ashok Leyland is the flagship company of Hinduja Group. It is the 2nd largest MHCV with ~26% market share and the largest Bus manufacturer in India. To expand its product offerings, AL has entered into 50:50 JV with Nissan for LCVs and John Deere for construction equipment.

Net sales grew 46% YoY (+34% QoQ) to INR45b (in line with est.), led by volume growth of 31.1% YoY (34.5% QoQ) and realization growth of ~12% YoY (flat QoQ). EBTIDA margin of 10.1% (up 430bp YoY and 300bp QoQ; est. of 9.9%) was aided by lower RM cost (value engineering and cost-cutting initiative) and higher operating leverage.

IndusInd Bank Ltd.

5% 802.55 874.70 9%

IndusInd Bank Ltd is one of the new generation private sector banks in India. Asset quality performance remains healthy, despite a challenging environment and significant slowdown in the CV segment. The management expects that the worst for CV financing is behind and gradual improvement is likely to be seen in coming quarters

Indusind Bank’s 4QFY15 PAT was in line with our estimates (+25% YoY) at INR4.95b. Healthy loan growth (+8% QoQ and +25% YoY), stable NIM QoQ (3.7%), strong fee income growth (+29% YoY), continued traction in SA (+31% YoY) and pick-up in CV loans (+4% QoQ v/s largely flattish in last two years) were the key highlights. We believe that IndusInd Bank has the potential to grow faster than the industry and strengthen its market share as it expands its network.

5%

Kotak Mah. Bank is one of the fastest growing bank. Merger with ING Vysya Bank will be BV accretive for Kotak Mah. Bank at standalone and consolidated level. Merger places Kotak Bank in a sweet spot for the next growth cycle with strong presence across geographies, expertise in key product lines and continued healthy capitalization.

Kotak Mahindra Bank’s 3QFY15 consolidated PAT missed our estimate by 18%. While banking business’ profits were in line with consensus estimates, aided by strong loan (+22% YoY) and fees (+45% YoY in 3Q/9M) growth, continued competitive pressure on other businesses (EPS INR 9.29) impacted overall profitability (est. EPS of INR 11.3).

14%

L&T is well placed to capitalize on long-term infrastructure demand. L&T's order inflow prospects is expected to double from last year's level, to US$75bn. L&T’s preparedness to exploit the evolving India defence opportunity. The stock's underperformance vs. the BSE Sensex.

Not yet announced

11%

Lupin is amongst the larger pharma companies that is actively targeting the regulated generics markets. Strategy of focusing on niche, low-competition products for the US market likely to benefit in the long run. US generics is expected to grow 20-22% due to a rich generic pipeline.

Not yet announced

Page 19: Alpha edge - June 2015

June 2015 19

Alpha Edge | “Modified Expectations”

Company Name

% Allocation

Recommended Price

Market price

% Incr/Decr

Rationale Result Update

Kotak Mahindra Bank Ltd.

5% 1263.15 1400.25 11%

Kotak Mah. Bank is one of the fastest growing bank. Merger with ING Vysya Bank will be BV accretive for Kotak Mah. Bank at standalone and consolidated level. Merger places Kotak Bank in a sweet spot for the next growth cycle with strong presence across geographies, expertise in key product lines and continued healthy capitalization.

Kotak Mahindra Bank’s Standalone PAT grew 37% YoY (on a lower base) to INR4.65b (in-line). Strong total income growth (+28% YoY) was driven by healthy fees (+45% YoY) and higher trading gains (+123% YoY). Share of CV/CE loans (-16% YoY) in overall loans is down to an all-time low of ~7.8%. Loan growth (ex-CV) remains healthy at 27% YoY driven by unsecured retail loans (9% of loans, +38% YoY) and corporate banking (34% of loans, +33% YoY). Reported CASA ratio up 100bp QoQ to 32% led by continued traction in CA (+13% QoQ) and SA (+6%). Banking business’ profits were in line, aided by strong loan (+22% YoY) and fees (+45% YoY in 3Q/9M) growth, continued competitive pressure on other businesses (INR2.5b, flat YoY) impacted overall profitability (est. of INR3b).

Larsen & Toubro Ltd.

5% 1496.50 1655.35 11%

L&T is well placed to capitalize on long-term infrastructure demand. L&T's order inflow prospects is expected to double from last year's level, to US$75bn. L&T’s preparedness to exploit the evolving India defence opportunity. The stock's underperformance vs. the BSE Sensex.

Consolidated PAT and order inflows were ahead of consensus but standalone performance was weak. Strong order inflow of Rs418bn was largely driven by domestic orders. Management has guided for 15% growth for both revenue and orders and a 100bp increase in its EBITDA margin for FY16.

Lupin Ltd. 5% 1427.55 1831.90 28%

Lupin is amongst the larger pharma companies that is actively targeting the regulated generics markets. Strategy of focusing on niche, low-competition products for the US market likely to benefit in the long run. US generics is expected to grow 20-22% due to a rich generic pipeline.

Lupin’s Q4 FY15 has been impacted due to drag in US business and cross currency impact. Operating margins have reduced to 26.25% from 33% Q4FY14. PAT numbers are down by 28% for Q4FY15 Y-o-Y%.

Maruti Suzuki India Ltd.

5% 3328.30 3785.45 14%

Maruti is the best auto OEM play on macro-economic recovery in India. Following flat volumes for the past four years, we expect car sales to bounce back, led by high pent-up demand, economic recovery, and deceleration in car ownership costs. Maruti’s strong product pipeline, coupled with lower competitive intensity, should help it consolidate its leadership.

Maruti Suzuki reported a healthy performance in Q4FY15, driven by a strong operating performance, which was better than expectations. While revenue growth was on expected lines at 12.3%, Op Pr growth was 72% YoY. A key contributor towards strong operating performance was due to benefits arising from cost reduction, favourable currency, lower commodity prices and lower sales promotion expenses.

Page 20: Alpha edge - June 2015

June 2015 20

Alpha Edge | “Modified Expectations”

Company Name

% Allocation

Recommended Price

Market price

% Incr/Decr

Rationale Result Update

Thermax Ltd. 5% 1067.65 960.15 -10%

Thermax is benefiting from few structural trends: (1) energy shortages and inconsistent availability of power, driving demand for energy efficiency products, (2) hunt for alternative energy, given demanding regulations and improving viability, (3) increased environmental concerns and stringent regulatory intervention, (4) currency depreciation leading to increased possibilities of exports etc. Thermax is likely to report acceleration in revenue growth, driven by improvement in GFCF particularly in base industries) and interplay of several structural trends.

While Q4FY15 margins fell 60bps YoY, it improved 50bps to 10% for FY15, on better cost control & operating leverage as sales grew by a modest 10%. In Q4FY15 subsidiary losses stood at INR500mn due to TBW JV and additional write‐off in Omnical of INR70mn, but management expects FY16E losses to be lower as B&W JV executes current order book of INR7bn along with improving earnings at Dan stoker. Order inflow of Rs 9.7bn (-15% YoY) was weak but mgmt. is confident with order inflow picking up in next 6 months.

PVR Ltd. 5% 703.10 665.30 -5%

India’s largest and fastest growing multiplex chain with 23-25% bollywood market share and 33-35% Hollywood market share. Movie screening is an under-penetrated business in India and we believe PVR will be the biggest beneficiary of revival in discretionary spends.

Consolidated revenue at Rs3bn (-4.7% yoy), EBITDA at Rs107.5mn (-67.5% yoy), with EBITDA margin at 3.6% (-693bps yoy) and Reported net loss of Rs356mn vs profit of Rs7.4mn in Q4FY14. However, Content pipeline looks promising in FY16, April and May has already seen double digit growth

Shree Cement Ltd.

5% 9412.10 10992.9 17%

Shree Cement is one of the most cost efficient cement producers in India. Shree Cement is the largest single-location integrated cement plant in North India, with an installed capacity of 13m ton.

Shree Cement reported an EBITDA/t of Rs 831/t (-23.7% YoY, +15.1% QoQ) even as volume growth grinded to a near halt (4.0 mTPA, 3.0% YoY). Realizations surprised positively (Rs 3,701, +4.4% QoQ, -4.5% YoY) likely driven by sharp price hikes in mid-March. Power division turned in a tepid quarter with EBITDA/unit at Rs 0.36, led by weaker volumes (334 mnkWh, -37.7% YoY) and pricing (Rs 3.39/kWh, + 2.4% YoY, -13.7% QoQ).

Tech Mahindra Ltd.

5% 647.89 554.45 -14%

Satyam's acquisition will help Tech Mahindra to diversify its client base and industry focus. Large deals like those of KPN and a gradual revival in the telecom vertical will help volume growth. Deals have kept growth coming (outside the BT account) despite challenged IT budgets in the telecom vertical.

TECHM reported a weak Q4 with revenue/EBIT/PAT missing estimates by 1%/21%/36% due to currency headwinds, wage hikes and consolidation of ‘low margin’ LCC/Softgen acquisitions

Ultratech Cement Ltd.

5% 2671.25 2976.65 11%

Ultratech is the largest cement company with pan-India presence. It has potential to increase its output without incurring major capex by increasing utilization and blending, along with locational advantage, gives it the flexibility to either export or sell in the domestic market. Significant potential to increase output by increasing blending. Allied businesses of white cement and RMC lend stability to overall performance.

UltraTech Cement’s Q4FY15 EBIDTA of INR13.1bn (up 6% YoY) was ~4% ahead of estimate led by low energy cost/t (down 9% QoQ due to sharp increase in pet coke consumption to 64% from 51% in Q3FY15). Cement sales at 11.5mt declined 4.5% YoY (implying ~10% dip excluding JP‐

Gujarat) due to poor demand from infrastructure segment (low government spending) and rural demand (due to unseasonal rains).

Page 21: Alpha edge - June 2015

June 2015 21

Alpha Edge | “Modified Expectations”

Company Name

% Allocation

Recommended Price

Market price

% Incr/Decr

Rationale Result Update

TVS Motor Company Ltd.

5% 268.30 237.95 -11%

TVS is well positioned to benefit from the scooterization wave with its complete scooter portfolio. With international presence in more than 50 countries in Asia, Africa and Latin America it plans to launch multiple products across segments to reinforce and fill gaps in portfolio in next 2 years.

TVSL’s 4QFY15 performance was in line with estimates, with reported EBITDA at ~INR1.5b. Net sales grew 13.8% YoY (-7.4% QoQ) to INR24.6b (in-line with est.), driven by volume growth of 6.6% YoY (-8.2% QoQ) to 601,926 units. Realizations rose by ~7% YoY (0.8% QoQ) to ~INR40,816 (v/s est. ~INR40,306).

VA Tech Wabag Ltd.

5% 737.40 732.35 -1%

VA Tech Wabag (VATW) is one of the leading players in water treatment industry, is attempting to expand into new geographies, including South East Asia, Sub-Sahara Africa, LatAm, Central Asia, etc. In FY14, the company received initial orders in Nepal, Tanzania, etc which also opens up interesting growth possibilities to ramp-up the business. Order intake in overseas subsidiaries has increased from INR6-7b in FY12-13 to INR16.4b in FY14

The company reported strong margins in overseas operations (mainly Philippines, Turkey and Nepal), which helped improve consolidated EBIDTA margins to 12.7% (+70bps YoY). However, PAT came below estimates due to weak sales and one‐off surge in interest cost (+66% YoY).

As the Rural demand has been wedged by lower MSPs and even monsoon is expected to be deficient this year. Hero Motocorp’s rural demand story has been dwindling and same can be seen its consecutively poor monthly sales numbers. We exit Hero Moto Corp and switch our allocation to Ashok Leyland on the back of strong sales numbers with improving margins.

Crompton Greaves have consecutively disappointed with its poor numbers and hence we would like to switch our allocation from Crompton Greaves to Britannia Industries, which has been market leader in biscuits industry and has been very impressive with its quarterly numbers on the back of superior execution of its premiumization and cost containment strategy. Britannia has a very strong ROE of 49% and has a debt free balance sheet.

90%

10%

Citadelle Growth Opportunities Portfolio Current Asset Allocation

Equity Cash

107.74

101.82

95

100

105

110

115

Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15

Citadelle Growth Opportunities Portfolio Performance

Citadelle Growth Opportunities Portfolio NAV

Nifty Index

Page 22: Alpha edge - June 2015

Alpha Edge | “Modified Expectations”

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