alphaliner fleetforecast 2015 01

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  • 7/21/2019 Alphaliner FleetForecast 2015 01

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    >>> Alphaliner- Cellular ships deliveries The data enclosed in this table is given as guidance only and in good faith without guarantee

    > This table can be reproduced free of charge provided that the source is mentioned 2015 > This table can be reproduced free of charge provided that the source is mentioned

    > These figures are derived from the orderbook monitored by Alphaliner, published at www.alphaliner.com > These figures are derived from the orderbook monitored by Alphaliner, published at www.alphaliner.com

    Cellular fleet projections 2015-2018 Cellular ships deliveries by year : 2015 / 2016 / 2017 / 2018

    Based on orderbook as at 01 January 2015and assuming no ships are deleted after that date (other than those planned) Based on orderbook as at 01 January 2015

    SUMMARY Note - The addition of the capacity by range at 1st Jan 2014 and of the capacity planned for delivery

    > The fleet has risen by 6,3% during 2014. during the year 2015 leads to a figure which is higher than the capacity stated as at 31 Dec 2014

    > The fleet should rise by 7,8% during 2015, 5,3% during 2016 and -0,4% during 2017. The difference comes from the capacity removed from the fleet (scrappings and losses)

    > The average growth for the THREE years from 1/1/2015 to 1/1/2018 stands at 4,2%. since 1st Jan 2015, or committed for scrap at that date (i.e. 3 ships for 6008 teu).

    Fleet as at : 31 Dec 2014 31 Dec 2015 31 Dec 2016 31 Dec 2017 31 Dec 2018 Rise p.a. 2015 deliveries 2016 deliveries 2017 deliveries 2018 deliveries

    (3 years)

    TEU nominal ships teu ships teu ships teu ships teu ships teu teu terms TEU nominal ships teu ships teu ships teu ships teu18000-20000 15 276 380 36 670 972 47 881 614 49 919 968 49 919 968 49,3% 18000-20000 21 394 592 11 210 642 2 38 354

    13300-17999 81 1 147 483 111 1 602 907 135 1 944 272 140 2 015 272 149 2 142 122 20,7% 13300-17999 30 455 424 24 341 365 5 71 000 9 126 850

    10000-13300 169 2 021 012 182 2 154 468 199 2 330 558 201 2 350 578 201 2 350 578 5,2% 10000-13300 13 133 456 17 176 090 2 20 020

    7500-9999 404 3 527 503 470 4 130 628 500 4 406 166 502 4 424 966 502 4 424 966 7,8% 7500-9999 66 603 125 30 275 538 2 18 800

    5100-7499 501 3 086 765 512 3 156 359 512 3 156 359 512 3 156 359 512 3 156 359 0,7% 5100-7499 11 69 594

    4000-5099 745 3 378 484 753 3 416 068 754 3 421 025 754 3 421 025 754 3 421 025 0,4% 4000-5099 8 37 584 1 4 957

    3000-3999 255 883 731 272 946 537 273 949 637 273 949 637 275 956 837 2,4% 3000-3999 17 62 806 1 3 100 2 7 200

    2000-2999 649 1 650 462 680 1 721 599 714 1 808 808 723 1 831 414 723 1 831 414 3,5% 2000-2999 32 73 741 34 87 209 9 22 606

    1500-1999 575 981 943 598 1 022 604 631 1 080 182 631 1 080 182 631 1 080 182 3,2% 1500-1999 25 44 065 33 57 578

    1000-1499 679 789 299 703 815 714 715 828 757 719 833 557 719 833 557 1,8% 1000-1499 24 26 415 12 13 043 4 4 800

    500-999 765 567 434 772 572 296 773 572 836 773 572 836 773 572 836 0,3% 500-999 7 4 862 1 540

    100-499 197 63 076 197 63 076 197 63 076 197 63 076 197 63 076 100-499

    TOTAL 5 035 18 373 572 5 286 20 273 228 5 450 21 443 290 5 474 21 618 870 5 485 21 752 920 5,6% TOTAL 254 1 905 664 164 1 170 062 24 175 580 11 134 050

    TOTAL after

    Exp. Scrap/Slip5 035 18 373 572 5 144 19 809 236 5 233 20 849 298 5 157 20 774 878 5 068 20 658 928 4,2% Exp. Slippage -25 -120 000 25 120 000

    Rise 12 months 2013 > 6,3% 2014 > 7,8% 2015 > 5,3% 2016 > -0,4% 2017 > -0,6%TOTAL after

    Slipp.229 1 785 664 189 1 290 062 24 175 580

    * Forecast figures take into account delivery deferrals and slippage.

    ** Rise p.a. (3 years) represents the average per annum growth during the three years 2015-2015-2017.

    TOTAL after Exp. Scrap/Slip

    Expected fleet after provision for future scrappings and delivery slippage, based on the following assumptions :

    > Slippage : 25 ships for 120,000 teu planned for delivery in 2015 are assumed to be delayed to the following year.

    > Scrappings and de-cellings are estimated to reach 350,000 teu in 2015 and 250,000 teu in 2016-18.

    Note - Only actual scrappings or scrapping commitments are accounted for in the breakdown by size ranges Alphaliner

    ALPHALINER Cellular Fleet ForecastThe worldwide reference in liner shipping

    Cellular Fleet Deliveries