alternative energy to oil

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Alternative Energies to Oil Damien Resch

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Executive summary....................................................................................................................3

Introduction................................................................................................................................4

I. What is the situation of the oil industry today?.................................................................6

Table 1.01 Oil production 1990-2005...................................................................6

Table 1.02 Oil consumption 1990-2005................................................................6

Table 1.03 Oil imports and exports 2005..............................................................7

II. Why should alternatives to oil be considered?.................................................................8

A. Future oil depletion theory........................................................................................8

Figure 2.01 The growing gap between oil discoveries and oil production............9Figure 2.02 The world oil peak...........................................................................10

Table 2.01 Crude oil prices 1990-2005 (US dollars per barrel).........................10

B. Global warming.......................................................................................................11Table 2.02 Global carbon dioxide emissions 1950-1996....................................12

III. What are existing alternatives?......................................................................................13

A. Introduction to renewable energies.........................................................................13Figure 3.01 U.S. energy consumption by source 2004........................................13

Table 3.01 Renewable energy consumption by source 1990-2004......................14

B. Solar energy.............................................................................................................14

1. How it works...................................................................................................15Figure 3.02 Close-up of a photovoltaic cell........................................................15

2. Advantages and disadvantages.......................................................................16Figure 3.03 Photovoltaic cells average prices 1994-2003..................................17

C. Wind energy............................................................................................................17

1. How it works...................................................................................................18Figure 3.04 Close-up of a wind turbine..............................................................18

2. Advantages and disadvantages.......................................................................19

Figure 3.05 Wind power prices 1980-2005 (and predictions).............................19

IV. What are my predictions?...............................................................................................20

Bibliography............................................................................................................................22

Appendices...............................................................................................................................26

- Glossary.....................................................................................................................26

- Oil: Where is it and how much is left?......................................................................27

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Oil is one of the most important energy resources, as almost all economies rely on it.

Its production has increased significantly for the last decade, while its consumption has

augmented faster, and the pace of new reserves found has declined.

Because of these factors, concerns have risen from scientists and people as for when

the oil production will not be able to follow-up with its demand, therefore creating the so-

called peak oil theory. Determining when the peak oil will occur is nearly impossible, but this

theory shows that oil will not last forever and alternative energies have to be developed to

reduce our dependency on oil. Another concern is related to the negative environmental

effects of the use of fossil fuels, such as global warming; another reason to look for renewable

energy to replace the use of oil.

Among the range of renewable energies, two offer great advantages and opportunities

of development in the coming years; solar and wind energies, which are inexhaustible and

powerful. However, there are drawbacks, such as the higher cost they require to produce

energy, compared to conventional sources, and their current technology inefficiency, which

makes them unable to compete with oil. But, positive elements offset the equation, such as the

decrease in prices for both technologies in the past decade (more appealing for wind power),

which has increased their consumption for the last 15 years (wind power increased by almost

400%).

In light of the future depletion of oil, the necessity to protect our environment, and the

great potential of renewable energies, I predict that both solar and wind energies

consumption will increase in the coming 15 years, reaching 5% and 7% respectively of total

energy consumption. Although, their use will diminish the consumption of oil, I dont believe

they will be able to replace it entirely. Therefore, other types of alternative energy will have to

be developed at the same time, offering a real potential in replacing the consumption of fossil

fuels.

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INTRODUCTION

What do telephones, helmets, fertilizers, glue, balloons, plastic, tires, insect repellents,

and perfumes have in common? The answer is that they are all made from oil. 1 Oil is the most

important energy source in todays societies; it is what made industrialism possible in the 20 th

century.2 Although only a small percentage of the economic activity is directly related to

energy resources, every industry depends on the availability of these energy resources3, hence

the importance of oil.

Since 1990, the consumption of oil has increased by 24.2%, while the production has

increased by 23.9% and the number of proven reserves worldwide has increased by 20%. 4

These figures present a positive situation that delights some industry experts and companies

whose activity is mainly based on the consumption of oil (manufacturers of the previously

listed products, shipping companies, etc.). However, this does not prevent some experts e.g.

Dr. Colin Campbell, Jean Laherrre, or the well-known geologist Dr. M. King Hubbert 5 and

some people especially environmentalists to think that the oil industry is declining and the

world is going to experience its peak production of oil soon6. They focus on the growing gap

between consumption and production.

In the light of their beliefs, other sources of energy ones that are free of oil should

be considered. There are numerous alternatives to oil; the so-called alternative energies that

are non-fossil fuels, therefore not diminishing the earths resources of fossil fuels any further. 7

These alternatives entail solar, wind, biomass, ocean, geothermal, fusion, and hydrogen

1 Arctic National Wildlife Refuge(ANWR), Products made from oil, 2005 Arctic Power [online]

(accessed November 5, 2006)2 Heinberg, Richard. The Partys Over, Revised edition, Canada: New Society Publishers, 2005 (chapter 3, p. 94).3Ibid.4 British Petroleum (BP), Statistical Review of World Energy 2006 [online] 1996-2006 BP p.l.c.

(accessed November 5, 2006)5 Hubbert Peak of Oil Production, The Experts Speak on the global Hubbert Peak, 1994-2006 [online]

(accessed November 5, 2006)6 Planet For Life The Coming World Oil Crisis, World Oil Peak, May 12, 2004 [online]

(accessed November 5, 2006)7 Lenkefi, Peter. An Introduction to Alternative Energy,EzineArticles. September 6, 2005 [online]

(accessed November 05, 2006)

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energies. They are characterized by high capital costs, which make them unattractive at first

on a short-term competitive basis8 unfortunately these characteristics may be their greatest

drawback. But, one must keep in mind that the advantages of these alternative energies far

outweigh the disadvantages in many cases.9

Thus, they do present appealing alternatives as they are at their early stage of

development and therefore present good opportunities of growth, especially as governments

help financing research and development in this area, such as the federal government of

Canada has recently declared they will do10.

This report will therefore present the situation in the oil industry (I), which will lead to

the discussion about why alternative energy should be considered (II), the main goal being to

present some of these alternatives; how they work, what they are, what this could mean to the

world and international business (III). Due to a wide variety of alternative energy, I decided to

choose to talk about the ones I feel personally attached to and would very much want to see

grow and become a big part of the international trade of energy. This will lead to my

predictions regarding those renewable energies (IV).

8 Berinstein, Paula.Alternative Energy: Facts, Statistics, and Issues, The Economies of Renewables. USA: Oryx Press,

2001 (Part 2, p. 34).9 Lenkefi, Peter. The Advantages and Disadvantages of Alternative Energy,EzineArticles. September 6, 2005 [online]

(accessed November 5,2006)10 CTV.ca News Staff, Paul Martin vows more cash for renewable energy research. September 25, 2005 [online]


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I. What is the situation of the oil industry today?

Alternative energy cannot be spoken of without presenting the energy to which it offers

an alternative: the oil. Oil is the most important energy source today and keep industrialism

going if world production of oil could no longer expand, the global economy would be

structurally imperiled.11 The main goal of this part of the report is to give information on

the current situation in the oil industry through tables and will serve as a basis for the

entire report.

Oil Production Change 2005(Thousand barrelsdaily)

2005share share

1990 1995 2000 2005 over 1990 of total

Total North America 13856 13789 13904 13636 -1,6% 16,5%

Total S. & Cent. America 4507 5782 6813 6964 +54,5% 9,0%

Total Europe & Eurasia 16099 13822 14942 17534 +8,9% 21,7%

Total Middle East 17540 20222 23501 25119 +43,2% 31,0%

Total Africa 6725 7112 7844 9835 +46,2% 12,0%

Total Asia Pacific 6743 7375 7936 8000 +18,6% 9,8%

TOTAL WORLD 65470 68102 74941 81088 23,9% 100%

Table 1.01 Oil production by region 1990-2005 (thousands of barrels)12

Change 2005

2005share share

1990 1995 2000 2005 over 1990 of total

Total North America 20206 21150 23522 24875 +23,1% 29,5%

Total S. & Cent. America 3558 4133 4661 4776 +34,2% 5,8%

Total Europe & Eurasia 23366 19703 19564 20350 -12,9% 25,1%

Total Middle East 3484 4240 4735 5739 +64,7% 7,1%

Total Africa 1977 2198 2458 2763 +39,8% 3,4%

Total Asia Pacific 13800 18081 20839 23957 +73,6% 29,1%

TOTAL WORLD 66390 69506 75779 82459 24,2% 100%

Table 1.02 Oil consumption by region 1990-2005 (thousand barrels daily)13

According to these two tables, we can see that the Middle East owns the biggest share

in the production of oil worldwide with 31% of the total, whereas it only accounts for a little

11 Heinberg, Richard. The Partys Over, Revised edition, Canada: New Society Publishers, 2005 (chapter 3, p. 94).12 Adapted from British Petroleum (BP), Statistical Review of World Energy 2006 [online] 1996-2006 BP p.l.c.

(accessed November 5, 2006)13 Adapted from British Petroleum (BP), Statistical Review of World Energy 2006 [online] 1996-2006 BP p.l.c.


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bit more than 7% of the world total oil consumption. Conversely, North Americas and

Europes shares of the total consumption exceed their share of production. Therefore, it is

important to analyze the imports and exports patterns of each main country and region in

order to understand the trade relationships in the oil industry.

Crude Product Crude Product Balance of

Imports Imports Exports Exports Trade

USA 10055 3470 38 1091 -12396

Canada 934 276 1643 558 991

Mexico - 328 1956 109 1737

South & Central America 657 399 2201 1327 2472

Europe 10537 2724 765 1384 -11112

Former Soviet Union 0 92 5374 1702 6984Middle East 205 134 17329 2492 19482

East & Southern Africa 548 117 249 17 -400

Australasia14 488 234 145 77 -500

Asia Pacific 14198 3917 1064 1787 -15264

TOTAL WORLD 37859 12047 37859 12047 0

Table 1.03 Oil imports and exports 2005 (thousand barrels daily)15

It is not surprising that, in the light of the previous tables, the United States of America

(U.S.A.) and Europe present a huge trade deficit as they import far more oil than they export.

Another striking figure regards the Asia Pacific, especially China and Japan; the gap between

oil production and consumption is greater than the one of the U.S. or of Europe, with more

than 15,000 thousand barrels in deficit roughly 640,000 gallons as a barrel equals 42

gallons16.

It is these kinds of figures along with the knowledge that nothing is ever lasting that

made people try to predict when the peak of oil production will be hit, and what should be

done when the entire oil industry will be slowly declining. The second part of the reports

states the oil peak theory and discuss about why alternatives to oil must be found.

14 Australia and New Zealand15

Adapted from British Petroleum (BP), Statistical Review of World Energy 2006 [online] 1996-2006 BP p.l.c. (accessed November 5, 2006)16 Energy Information Administration (E.I.A.), Energy Kids Page, How Big is a Barrel?. Agency created in 1977 [online]

(accessed November 4, 2006).

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II. Why should alternatives to oil be considered?

There are mainly two reasons as to why dependability on fossil fuels should be

decreased and alternatives should be developed, as there already is a variety of alternatives;

the future oil depletion theory and global warming. Obviously, opinions widely differ on the

matter, each part presenting legitimate statements to contradict those of the opponent part.

The goal of this report is not to present the ever lasting debate, but to present the reasons why

alternative energy should be considered, even preferred to conventional sources of energy.

A. Future oil depletion theory

When thinking about the theory of the peak oil, there is one name that comes to mind;

Dr. Marion King Hubbert (1903-1989), geophysicist, well known as a world authority on

the estimation of energy resources and on the prediction of their patterns of discovery and

depletion.17He estimated that the era of fossil fuels will be very short. 18 Whether M. King

Hubbert was right or not in his predictions, many people have followed his path and have

discussed about when the oil peak in production will be reached, basing their research on the

basis that nothing lasts forever.

17 Hubbert Peak of Oil Production, Experts: M. King Hubbert, 1994-2006 [online]

(accessed November 6, 2006)18 A Tribute to M. King Hubbert, About: M. King Hubbert. February 2006 [online]


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Figure 2.01 The growing gap between oil discoveries and oil production19

This graphic offers the basis for this theory, by showing the difference between the

declining discoveries of new reserves of oil and the augmenting production of oil in response

to its demand. Of course, this doesnt mean that the world will run out of oil all of a sudden,

but that its availability will decrease once the peak has been reached. When will this peak be

reached? Opinions vary widely and it is not the goal of this report to discuss and speculate

about it.

However, its goal is to emphasize that oil discoveries are indeed decreasing whereas the

production of oil tries to follow-up with an ever increasing demand. This means that

alternative energies need to be better developed to become competitive and free the world

from its dependency on non-renewable fuel energies, as it might have undesirable effects on

economies when oil availability is to be diminished. The following figure is a representation

of the oil peak theory.

19 Planet For Life: Peak Oil and The Coming World Oil Crisis, Current World Oil Crisis. May 12, 2004 [online]


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Figure 2.02 The World Oil Peak20

Figure 2.02 is important not so much for its projected peak oil date (very

controversial) but more the bell-shaped curve21 of oil production. This curve means that

production will decrease gradually and will, therefore, be harder to notice it. The availability

of oil will not stop overnight, but if we wait until the very last second to do something about

it, the effect might be the same as if it had.

What would be the impact on industrialized economies, international trade, economic

agreements and cooperation between nations? We can only guess, but we can be certain it

wouldnt be a bright future. This is another reason to focus on developing alternative energies

and reducing the consumption of oil, therefore extending its availability.

Variation from Variation from

1990 1995 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 1990 to 2000 2000 to 2005

35,62 22,03 32,88 27,34 27,36 30,62 39,57 54,52 -7,68% +65,81%

Table 2.01 Crude oil prices 1990-2005 (US dollars per barrel)22

Another concern is related to the price of oil, which has been rising since 2000 to

increase 65.81% by 2005. Some industry experts think that prices are likely to go higher

because of the difficulty of keeping supplies in pace with demand; Sir Bill Gammell, Chief

20 Planet For Life: Peak Oil and The Coming World Oil Crisis, World Oil Peak. May 12, 2004 [online]

(accessed November 6, 2006).21 Heinberg, Richard. The Partys Over, Revised edition, Canada: New Society Publishers, 2005 (chapter 3, p. 98).22 Adapted from British Petroleum (BP), Statistical Review of World Energy 2006 [online] 1996-2006 BP p.l.c.


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Executive of Cairn Energy, thinks that we will see prices skyrocket to $100 a barrel. 23 Indeed,

the oil easy to access was produced first i.e. the remaining will be expensive 24, which

madeNational Geographic proclaim that it is the beginning of The End of Cheap Oil. 25

Therefore, it is really important to preserve oil and focus on the development of

alternative energies, otherwise the consequences will be dramatic for trade and industrialism

in general; many common products are made from oil, and almost an entire economy is based

on transportation. However, oil depletion is not the only reason we have to consider using

alternative energy; global warming is also an important phenomenon that has many impacts

(mostly indirect) on both business and the Earth in general.

B. Global warming

What causes global warming? Well, it is carbon dioxide and other air pollution [such

as chlorofluocarbons (CFCs) the most prevalent ozone-depleting substances26] that is

collecting in the atmosphere like a thickening blanket, trapping the sun's heat and causing the

planet to warm up.27 For instance, coal-burning power plants are the largest U.S. source of

carbon dioxide [CO2] pollution (2.5 billion tons per year), whereas automobiles are the second

largest source (nearly 1.5 billion tons annually).28

23 Blythe, Nils. BBC News, Why Oil Will Hit $100 a Barrel. Updated February 15, 2006 [online]

(accessed November 7, 2006).24 Planet For Life: Peak Oil and The Coming World Oil Crisis, Current World Oil Crisis. May 12, 2004 [online]

(accessed November 7, 2006).25 Appenzeller, Tim. National Geographic, The End of Cheap Oil. June 2004 [online]

(accessed November 7, 2006).26 Geo 2000: Global environment Outlook, Chapter 2: The State of the Environment, Global Issues: Stratospheric Ozone

Depletion. No date [online] (accessed November 6, 2006).27 Natural Resources Defense Center (N.R.D.C.), Global Warming: In Brief: F.A.Q., What Causes Global Warming?. No

date [online] (accessed November 6, 2006).28 Natural Resources Defense Center (N.R.D.C.), Global Warming: In Brief: F.A.Q., What Causes Global Warming?. No

date [online] (accessed November 6, 2006).

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/4713186.stmhttp://planetforlife.com/oilcrisis/oilsituation.htmlhttp://magma.nationalgeographic.com/ngm/0406/feature5/http://www.grida.no/geo2000/english/0035.htmhttp://www.nrdc.org/globalWarming/f101.asp#1http://www.nrdc.org/globalWarming/f101.asp#1http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/4713186.stmhttp://planetforlife.com/oilcrisis/oilsituation.htmlhttp://magma.nationalgeographic.com/ngm/0406/feature5/http://www.grida.no/geo2000/english/0035.htmhttp://www.nrdc.org/globalWarming/f101.asp#1http://www.nrdc.org/globalWarming/f101.asp#1


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Table 2.02 Global carbon dioxide emissions 1950-1996 29

From this graph (table 2.02), we can easily see that carbon dioxide emissions have

steadily augmented from the early 1950s to the late 1990s, an increase of almost 400% in

less than half a century. The carbon dioxide emissions heavily pollute the air, causing major

damages on the landscape, wildlife, agriculture, health, etc. Although it may not appear at first

glance, global warming does have a major negative impact on business activities worldwide.

Although it is hard to estimate on the value of damages due to acid precipitation, an

estimation on the economic losses due to air pollution was made by the U.S. Environmental

Protection Agency (E.P.A.) in the 1980s. The E.P.A. estimated that cutting ozone levels by

roughly 50% would increase the yields of soybean, corn, wheat, and peanut crops by $5

billion.30 Though the figures are old, the message remains unchanged.

Plus, climate change may have direct and indirect health impacts, as heat waves

become more severe and frequent, and change agriculture and food production, could affect

nutritional status31 and increase health care expenditures worldwide.

29 Geo 2000: Global environment Outlook, Chapter 2: The State of the Environment, Global Issues: Climate Change.

Source: CDIAC 1999 [online] (accessed November 6, 2006).30 Cozic, Charles P. and Polesetsky, Matthew (book editors).Energy Alternatives , Chapter 1: Should the U.S. Decrease Its

Use of Fossil Fuels?, San Diego: Current Controversies, 1991 (p.25).31 Geo 2000: Global environment Outlook, Chapter 2: The State of the Environment, Global Issues: Climate Change.

Source: Lindsey and Birley 1996 [online] (accessed November 6, 2006).

http://www.grida.no/geo2000/english/0034.htmhttp://www.grida.no/geo2000/english/0034.htmhttp://www.grida.no/geo2000/english/0034.htmhttp://www.grida.no/geo2000/english/0034.htmhttp://www.grida.no/geo2000/english/0034.htm#img25ahttp://www.grida.no/geo2000/english/0034.htmhttp://www.grida.no/geo2000/english/0034.htm


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Because of future oil depletion and global warming, we must consider alternatives to

the fossil fuels on which our industrialized economies are too dependent. The following part

is to present two types of renewable energies: solar and wind energies.

III. What are existing alternatives?

A. Introduction to renewable energies

What are renewable energies? They are those energy sources which are not

destroyed when their energy is harnessed; renewable energy sources are distinct from fossil

fuels, which must be consumed to release energy.32 The fact that we have such energy

sources available on Earth is a gift that we need to use to our advantage. Here is a short

presentation about renewable energies that will be followed by the presentation of two of

them; solar and wind powers.

Figure 3.01 U.S. energy consumption by source (2004)33

Although this figure represents only the U.S. energy consumption, it gives a good idea

of the importance in the consumption of each source of energy. Not surprisingly, renewable

energy presents the lowest share of the consumption. As the figure emphasizes, there is a

great difference in importance between each renewable energy source; solar and wind powers

32 Wikipedia, The Free Encyclopedia, Renewable Energy. 2001 [online]

(accessed November 9, 2006).33 Energy Information Administration (E.I.A.), Renewable Energy Annual: 2004 Edition. Released June 2006 [online]


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present the lowest share with respectively 1% and 2% - i.e. less than 0.05% of the total energy

consumption.

1990 1995 2000 2004 1990-2004

Total 6,133 6,669 6,158 6,117 -0,26%

Biomass 43,4% 46,0% 47,2% 46,5% +7,15%

Geothermal 5,5% 4,4% 5,1% 5,6% +1,46%

Conventional Hydroelectric 49,7% 48,1% 45,6% 44,5% -10,30%

Solar 0,978% 1,050% 1,072% 1,030% +5,27%

Wind 0,473% 0,495% 0,926% 2,338% +394,39%

Table 3.01 Renewable energy consumption by energy source 1990-2004 (quadrillion Btu)34

Although the previous figure could give someone a negative attitude toward solar and

wind energies, as they may feel there is no use in developing them, Table 3.01 shows the

growth potential, especially for wind power, which has increased by almost 400% since 1990.

The figures are not that encouraging about solar power, but the silver lining is that both

energies are still at their early stages and therefore present development and maybe growth

opportunities. This is the basis for the explanation of how each works and what are their

advantages and disadvantages.

B. Solar energy

Solar energy is the basis for nearly every form of energy that is used today. The

natural way of things makes plants grow that can be used in two different ways: when they are

burned, they can be used as biomass fuel; and if left to decompose themselves in swamps and

compressed underground for millions of years, they can be used as coal or oil. Secondly,

while heat from the sun causes temperatures differences that produce wind, etc., solar energy

usually refers to the ways the suns energy can be used to directly generate heat, lighting, and

electricity.35

34 Energy Information Administration (E.I.A.), Renawable Energy Trends 2004. No date [online] Adapted from Historical

Renewable Energy Consumption by Energy Use Sector and Energy Source, 1989-1999 / and () 2000-2004

(accessed November 9, 2006).35 Union of Concerned Scientists, How Solar Energy Works. Last Revised July 27, 2006 [online]

(accessed November 9,2006).

http://www.eia.doe.gov/cneaf/solar.renewables/page/trends/table_5a.xlshttp://www.eia.doe.gov/cneaf/solar.renewables/page/trends/table_5b.xlshttp://www.ucsusa.org/clean_energy/renewable_energy_basics/how-solar-energy-works.htmlhttp://www.eia.doe.gov/cneaf/solar.renewables/page/trends/table_5a.xlshttp://www.eia.doe.gov/cneaf/solar.renewables/page/trends/table_5b.xlshttp://www.ucsusa.org/clean_energy/renewable_energy_basics/how-solar-energy-works.html


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Only photovoltaic cells, and not the solar thermal technology, will be described in this

part. As photovoltaic cells function is to directly convert sunlight into electricity, it better

relates to the purpose of the report, i.e. presenting direct alternatives to oil. Solar thermal

technology can produce electricity but it is not its main purpose.

1. How it works

Figure 3.02 Close-up of a photovoltaic cell3637

Photovoltaic cells (P.V.) can generate electricity by using the power of the sunlight

into line electrons only produce electricity only when running through a wire, not when they

are rotating around an atom; they have to be isolated. This way, when photons of light hit the

atoms in the cell, the jar electrons loose; it results in creating a negative charge on one side of

the P.V. cell (top layer) as electrons flow toward it, while the other side receives a positive

36

Union of Concerned Scientists, How Solar Energy Works: Photovoltaics. Last Revised July 27, 2006 [online] (accessed November 9,2006).37P-type semiconductor: semiconductor of positive charge /N-type semiconductor: semiconductor of negative charge /P-N

junction:junction between positive and negative charges.

http://www.ucsusa.org/clean_energy/renewable_energy_basics/how-solar-energy-works.htmlhttp://www.ucsusa.org/clean_energy/renewable_energy_basics/how-solar-energy-works.html


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charge (bottom layer). The electric current gets formed when a circuit connects the two sides

together.38

2. Advantages and disadvantages

Advantages: the first and main advantage of solar energy is that it is obviously free,

renewable, and generates absolutely no noxious emissions. The amount of energy from the

sun that falls on Earths surface is enormous. All the energy stored in Earth's reserves of

coal, oil, and natural gas is matched by the energy from just 20 days of sunshine,39 so it

offers great opportunities. Solar power is also very useful to supply electricity in remote areas,

far from any conventional electricity. P.V.s are also one of the few renewable technologies

that can be integrated into the urban landscape and their cost of has dropped in the past few

years and is predicted to fall further as mass production increases, as the following graph

shows.40

Figure 3. 03 Photovoltaic cells average prices 1994-200341

38 Berinstein, Paula.Alternative Energy: Facts, Statistics, and Issues, Chapter 4: Solar Energy. USA: Oryx Press, 2001

(Part 2, p. 65).39 Union of Concerned Scientists, How Solar Energy Works: The Solar Resource. Last Revised July 27, 2006 [online]

(accessed November 9,2006).40

BBC News, Disposable Planet: Energy: Alternatives to oil: Solar Power. No date [online] (accessedNovember 9, 2006).41 Energy Information Administration (E.I.A.), Renewable Energy: Solar Report. No date [online]


http://www.ucsusa.org/clean_energy/renewable_energy_basics/how-solar-energy-works.htmlhttp://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/static/in_depth/world/2002/disposable_planet/energy/alternatives/solar.stmhttp://www.eia.doe.gov/cneaf/solar.renewables/page/solarreport/solarsov.pdfhttp://www.ucsusa.org/clean_energy/renewable_energy_basics/how-solar-energy-works.htmlhttp://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/static/in_depth/world/2002/disposable_planet/energy/alternatives/solar.stmhttp://www.eia.doe.gov/cneaf/solar.renewables/page/solarreport/solarsov.pdf


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Disadvantages: the first disadvantage pointed out is often that solar energy is of limited use

because not every location in the world gets the same amount of sunlight, due to clouds or

other barriers for instance. Another drawback, more important than the previous, is the low

efficiency of todays P.V. cells, which absorb only about 15% of the sunlights energy. Plus,

big batteries are needed to store the electricity when the sunlight is not reaching specific

locations, which adds an extra cost42 to the already higher cost of this energy compared to

fossil fuels43.

C. Wind power

Exploiting wind energy is one of the cleanest, most sustainable ways to generate

electricity, as it barely produces noxious emissions that contribute to global warming. Plus, it

is one of the most abundant resources, which makes it a viable alternative to fossil fuels. All

of that, along with its increasing cost-competitiveness, make wind power a promising source

of energy.44

1. How it works

Wind turbines are available in different sizes that will affect the amount of energy

captured from the wind, especially at a higher height, as wind power becomes more powerful

when farther from the soil.

Electricity has to be produced at a specific voltage to be compatible with a utility grid;

and one problem presented by wind is its greatly varying speeds, which sometimes create

fluctuations in electricity. One solution to this problem is to have constant speed turbines,

where the blades adjust themselves to slow down when wind speeds gust. Another solution is

42 BBC News, Disposable Planet: Energy: Alternatives to oil: Solar Power. No date [online]

(accessedNovember 9, 2006).43

Berinstein, Paula.Alternative Energy: Facts, Statistics, and Issues, Chapter 4: Solar Energy. USA: Oryx Press, 2001(Part 2, p. 66).44 Union of Concerned Scientists, How Wind Energy Works. Last Revised July 27, 2006 [online]

(accessed November 9,2006).

http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/static/in_depth/world/2002/disposable_planet/energy/alternatives/solar.stmhttp://www.ucsusa.org/clean_energy/renewable_energy_basics/how-wind-energy-works.htmlhttp://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/static/in_depth/world/2002/disposable_planet/energy/alternatives/solar.stmhttp://www.ucsusa.org/clean_energy/renewable_energy_basics/how-wind-energy-works.html


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to use variable-speed turbines, where the blades and generator change speeds with the wind,

and sophisticated power controls fix the fluctuations of the electrical output. A third approach

is to use low-speed generators.45 These approach offer solutions to one of the main concerns

about wind power, as it will be stated in the following part.

Figure 3.04 Close-up of a wind turbine46

2. Advantages and disadvantages

Advantages: same as for solar power, it is free and inexhaustible, which makes it very

appealing.47 It produces electricity in an environmentally friendly way with no noxious

45 Union of Concerned Scientists, How Wind Energy Works: The Mechanics of Wind Turbines. Last Revised July 27,

2006 [online] (accessedNovember 9, 2006).46 BBC News, Disposable Planet: Energy: Alternatives to oil: Wind Power. No date [online]

(accessedNovember 9, 2006).47 BBC News, Disposable Planet: Energy: Alternatives to oil: Wind Power: Pros. No date [online]

(accessedNovember 9, 2006).

http://www.ucsusa.org/clean_energy/renewable_energy_basics/how-wind-energy-works.htmlhttp://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/static/in_depth/world/2002/disposable_planet/energy/alternatives/wind.stmhttp://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/static/in_depth/world/2002/disposable_planet/energy/alternatives/wind.stmhttp://www.ucsusa.org/clean_energy/renewable_energy_basics/how-wind-energy-works.htmlhttp://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/static/in_depth/world/2002/disposable_planet/energy/alternatives/wind.stmhttp://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/static/in_depth/world/2002/disposable_planet/energy/alternatives/wind.stm


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emissions even if the turbines are taken down, there are no residues left behind.48 Another

important advantage is that the lands where windmills are located ca still be used for other

purposes such as agriculture, for instance as they only use 5% to 10% of a windfarms

area.49 These advantages are really appealing, especially as wind power costs become more

competitive they have dropped from about 25 cents/kWh in 1981 to as low as 4-6

cents/kWh in recent years (see figure below).50

Figure 3.05 Wind power prices 1980-2005 [and predictions] (cents/kWh)51

Disadvantages: these can be divided into two categories of concerns: aesthetics and

efficiency. The first category relates to the fact that some people are worried about windfarms

being created in their area as they ruin the landscape they often are established on hills to

get as much wind power as possible and also because they generate a lot of noise that is

upsetting. In terms of efficiency, windfarms require much more space to produce the same

amount of energy as other methods, such as coal-fire powered stations. Plus, electricity

produced is more expensive than other means.52One last drawback doesnt fit any of the two

48 BBC, Weather Centre: Climate Change: Wind Power: The Advantages. No date [online]

(accessed November 9, 2006)49 Berinstein, Paula.Alternative Energy: Facts, Statistics, and Issues, Chapter 6: Wind Energy: Environmental

Considerations. USA: Oryx Press, 2001 (Part 2, p. 101).50 Union of Concerned Scientists, How Wind Energy Works: The Market for Wind. Last Revised July 27, 2006 [online]

(accessed November 9,2006).51

Union of Concerned Scientists, How Wind Energy Works: The Market for Wind. Last Revised July 27, 2006. Source:NREL [online] (accessedNovember 9, 2006).52 BBC, Weather Centre: Climate Change: Wind Power: The Disadvantages. No date [online]


http://www.bbc.co.uk/climate/adaptation/wind_power.shtmlhttp://www.ucsusa.org/clean_energy/renewable_energy_basics/how-wind-energy-works.htmlhttp://www.ucsusa.org/clean_energy/renewable_energy_basics/how-wind-energy-works.htmlhttp://www.bbc.co.uk/climate/adaptation/wind_power.shtmlhttp://www.bbc.co.uk/climate/adaptation/wind_power.shtmlhttp://www.ucsusa.org/clean_energy/renewable_energy_basics/how-wind-energy-works.htmlhttp://www.ucsusa.org/clean_energy/renewable_energy_basics/how-wind-energy-works.htmlhttp://www.bbc.co.uk/climate/adaptation/wind_power.shtml


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categories and relates to some environmental problems; it can disrupt wildlife habitats and kill

birds due to the height of windmills.53

IV. What are my predictions?

In light of the facts that have been presented in this report, I firmly believe that oil

production will peak and will not be able to follow-up with the demand worldwide. Indeed,

nothing is everlasting and the fact that oil reserves are found more slowly than production

increases is one proof on which this argument rests. As for when the peak oil will occur,

based on the estimations54

, I dont think it already happened; it is most likely to happen it the

next decades, not before 2015.

Knowing exactly when the peak oil will happen would be very convenient both for

being aware of how much time is left to us to try and develop alternative energies, but also for

opening peoples eyes to the need of developing such alternatives, which seems the hardest

task to do. But, knowing that is an added value; it is actually not that important.

What is important is to know that oil will not last forever and that there are alternative

energies available already. Therefore, it is critical to develop them and make them be as

efficient as fossil fuels are. The two described in this report are, of course, at their early

stages, but they offer great opportunities of development.

The use of solar power has only increased by a little bit more than 5% since 1990,

which shows that the disadvantages of this technology currently outweigh its advantages.

Renewable energies per se present higher costs than conventional energy; the costs of solar

power are really high as P.V. cells remain expensive and also because batteries are needed to

stock the energy received also expensive. But, as any other technology, costs will decrease

as more research and development funds are allocated to study on solar power. Prices of P.V.

53 Berinstein, Paula.Alternative Energy: Facts, Statistics, and Issues, Chapter 6: Wind Energy: Environmental

Considerations. USA: Oryx Press, 2001 (Part 2, p. 101).54 Please, see Appendices: Oil: Where is it and How much is left? (p. 27)



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cells have already decreased for the last ten years55, and will continue to do so. Due to the

great advantages of solar power, I think that its use will increase dramatically in the coming

decades; it will account for at least 5% of the total energy consumption worldwide by

2025.

Wind energy consumption has skyrocketed since the beginning of the 1990s, which

shows that its advantages are important enough to offset its disadvantages. It of course still

accounts for a really small percentage of energy consumption worldwide, but presents

undeniable positive characteristics. Because of this situation, I firmly believe that wind

energy share of total consumption will increase up to 7% by 2025, with decreasing prices

that will help this development56.

I hope that the development of these two technologies will not stop and will be widely

used worldwide to ease the consumption of oil, until scientist find an alternative that would

really replace the use of oil, without negative effects on the environment. Indeed, I perceive

solar and wind energies as a way to reduce dependency on oil, but not as the new oil

that will allow industrialism to develop itself at the same pace it did in the 20th century.

55 See Figure 3.03 (p. 16)56 Based on the predictions of Figure 3.05 (p. 19)



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APPENDICES

Glossary

Alternative Energy:non fossil fuels and do not deplete the earths resources of fossil fuelsany further.57

Btu: Short forBritish thermal unit, a British standard unit of energy. One Btu is equal toapproximately 251.9 calories or 1055 joules.58

Crude Oil: it is a mixture of hydrocarbons; it is the oil we find underground and that has tobe changed before it can be used for anything.59

Global Warming: A gradual warming of the Earth's atmosphere reportedly caused by theburning of fossil fuels and industrial pollutants.60

Peak Oil:"The term Peak Oil refers the maximum rate of the production of oil in any areaunder consideration, recognising that it is a finite natural resource, subject to depletion."61

Solar Power:the technology of obtaining usable energy from the light of the Sun. 62

Wind Power: the conversion of wind energy into more useful forms, usually electricityusing wind turbines.63

57 Lenkefi, Peter. An Introduction to Alternative Energy,EzineArticles. September 6, 2005 [online]

(accessed November 05, 2006)58 Webopedia, Btu. 2006 Jupitermedia Corporation [online] (accessed

November 7, 2006).59 School SienceDiscover Petroleum: What is Crude Oil. 2003 [online]

(accessed November 5,2006)60 Dairy Land, Kids Corner, Glossary of Terms. No date [online] (accessed

November 7, 2006)61 Campbell, Colin (geologist), quoted in Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas (A.S.P.O.), in Relevant

Information (right column). No date [online] (accessed November 5, 2006).62 Wikipedia, The Free Encyclopedia. Solar Power, 2001 [online] (accessed

November 5, 2006).63 Wikipedia, The Free Encyclopedia. Wind Power, 2001 [online] (accessed

November 5, 2006).

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Oil: Where is it and how much is left?64

64 National Geographic, The End of Cheap Oil: Oil: Where is it, How much is left?: Map (left column). 2004 National

alternative energy to oil

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