alternative equilibria and resilience in arctic aquatic systems arctic frontiers atp 2011 tromsø...
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Alternative equilibria and Alternative equilibria and resilience in Arctic aquatic resilience in Arctic aquatic
systemssystems
Arctic Frontiers ATP 2011 Arctic Frontiers ATP 2011 TromsøTromsø
Primicerio R, Amundsen P-A, Aschan M, Knudsen R, Planque B, Varpe Ø
BarEcoReBarEcoRe ATPATP
Alternative equilibria in the Arctic
Outline• Bistability and resilience• Mechanisms of bistability• Managing metastable
systems
Bistability and resilience
• Alternative equilibria in Arctic aquatic systems
• Management challenges of tipping points
Alternative equilibria in the Arctic
Bistability and resilience• Alternative equilibria in
Arctic aquatic systems• Management challenges of
tipping points Lake Takvatn
2009 TREE2009 TREE
Alternative equilibria in the Arctic
Bistability and resilience• Lake Takvatn
Culling experiment - removed 31 tons (660000 individuals) of Arctic charr in the period 1984 to 1989
Alternative equilibria in the Arctic
2007 Science2007 Science
Bistability and resilience
• Lake Takvatn
Alternative equilibria in the Arctic
Bistability and resilience
• Lake Takvatn
Alternative equilibria in the Arctic
Tipping Tipping pointpoint
Bistability and resilience
• Lake Takvatn
Alternative equilibria in the Arctic
Tipping Tipping pointpoint
Mechanisms of bistability
• Lake Takvatn
Alternative equilibria in the Arctic
Mechanisms of bistability
• Lake Takvatn
0 500 1500 2500
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
Time
Abu
ndan
ce
Alternative equilibria in the Arctic
Mechanisms of bistability
• Lake Takvatn
0 500 1500 2500
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
Time
Abu
ndan
ce
Alternative equilibria in the Arctic
Tipping Tipping pointpoint
Mechanisms of bistability
• Lake Takvatn
0 500 1500 2500
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
Time
Abu
ndan
ce
Alternative equilibria in the Arctic
Tipping Tipping pointpoint
Mechanisms of bistability
• Lake Takvatn
0 500 1500 2500
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
Time
Abu
ndan
ce
Juveniles
Ad
ults
Alternative equilibria in the Arctic
Mechanisms of bistability
• Lake Takvatn
0 500 1500 2500
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
Time
Abu
ndan
ce
Alternative equilibria in the Arctic
Mechanisms of bistability
• Lake Takvatn
Alternative equilibria in the Arctic
Mechanisms of bistability
• Lake Takvatn
Alternative equilibria in the Arctic
Mechanisms of bistability
• Lake Takvatn
Alternative equilibria in the Arctic
Mechanisms of bistability
• Lake Takvatn
Alternative equilibria in the Arctic
Mechanisms of bistability
• Lake Takvatn
Alternative equilibria in the Arctic
Mechanisms of bistability
• Lake Takvatn
Alternative equilibria in the Arctic
Mechanisms of bistability
• Emergent Allee effect
Alternative equilibria in the Arctic
Mechanisms of bistability
• Lake Takvatn
Alternative equilibria in the Arctic
Bistability and resilience• Regime shifts – variable vs
parameter change• Resilience – ecological vs
engineering
Fishing induced evolution in salmonidsMaturation schedules• Arctic charr in Lake Takvatn
Fish removal
Suspended harvest
1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996
20
25
30
35
Cohort
Length
(cm
)