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Alternative Investment Regimes for Direct Foreign and Domestic Investments in Russian Subsoil Dr. Andrey A.Konoplyanik, Consultant to the Board, Gazprombank, & Professor, Russian State Oil & Gas University Presentation for the Eurasia Energy Governance Programme of the Center for Energy, Marine Transportation and Public Policy (CEMTPP), Columbia University, New York, NY, 19 & 21 April 2010

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Page 1: Alternative Investment Regimes for Direct Foreign and Domestic … · 2013. 9. 17. · Professor, Russian State Oil & Gas University Presentation for the Eurasia Energy Governance

Alternative Investment Regimes for Direct Foreign and Domestic Investments

in Russian Subsoil

Dr. Andrey A.Konoplyanik,Consultant to the Board, Gazprombank, &

Professor, Russian State Oil & Gas University

Presentation for the Eurasia Energy Governance Programme of the Center for Energy, Marine Transportation and Public Policy (CEMTPP),

Columbia University, New York, NY, 19 & 21 April 2010

Page 2: Alternative Investment Regimes for Direct Foreign and Domestic … · 2013. 9. 17. · Professor, Russian State Oil & Gas University Presentation for the Eurasia Energy Governance

CONTENTS:

• A piece of theory

• Licensing oil tax regime of the 1990’s

• Licensing oil tax regime reform of 2002

• PSA history in Russia (since1994): up and down

• Which way to go further?

Page 3: Alternative Investment Regimes for Direct Foreign and Domestic … · 2013. 9. 17. · Professor, Russian State Oil & Gas University Presentation for the Eurasia Energy Governance

First level: extraction by the state, as the provider of public services, from all the subjects of business activities in all the spheres of economy a reasonable portion of their “entrepreneurial income” (through the mechanism of profit-tax);

Second level: extraction by the state, as the subsoil-owner, from all the subjects of business activities in mineral-extraction industries (usually: mining + non-renewable energy resources) a reasonable portion of “mineral/resource rent”, i.e. of income generated “by nature” (through the mechanism of royalty or similar government takes);

Third level: extraction by the state, as the subsoil-owner, from all the subjects of business activities in mineral-extraction industries a reasonable portion of the “differential economic rent” (incl. windfall profits), which has been received by some subsoil-users due to development of projects located in better natural conditions compared to the projects of other subsoil-users (through the mechanism of special oil taxes).

Dr. A. Konoplyanik, Columbia University, New York, USA, 19.04.2010 - Figure 1

“THREE-LEVEL” OIL TAXATION SYSTEM

Page 4: Alternative Investment Regimes for Direct Foreign and Domestic … · 2013. 9. 17. · Professor, Russian State Oil & Gas University Presentation for the Eurasia Energy Governance

To be effective, oil taxation need to implement“double differentiation”:

1. “Between” the individual projects – to consider different natural conditions (geology, geography, etc.) of each individual project for maximum efficient extraction of the differential rent generated by this project compared to others;

2. “Within” the individual projects – to consider different stages of oil field development through which every investment project has been passing (early, mature, late, fading stage) for maximum efficient extraction of the changing portion of the economic rent in the oil price from one stage of the investment project to another.

Dr. A. Konoplyanik, Columbia University, New York, USA, 19.04.2010 - Figure 2

WHAT IS EFFECTIVE DIFFERENTIATED OIL TAXATION ?

Page 5: Alternative Investment Regimes for Direct Foreign and Domestic … · 2013. 9. 17. · Professor, Russian State Oil & Gas University Presentation for the Eurasia Energy Governance

FINANCIAL FLOWS DURING OIL-FIELD INVESTMENT CYCLE

Dr. A. Konoplyanik, Columbia University, New York, USA, 19.04.2010 - Figure 3

Page 6: Alternative Investment Regimes for Direct Foreign and Domestic … · 2013. 9. 17. · Professor, Russian State Oil & Gas University Presentation for the Eurasia Energy Governance

INVESTMENT-RELATED STIMULI IN UPSTREAM OIL TAXATION : GENERAL

CONSIDERATIONS

Stages of oil field development

Pro-investment stimuli in oil producers’ taxation under the concept of its efficient (non-fiscal) formation

Early Diminishing of tax burden, especially of revenue-based taxes, shift of tax burden from early to mature stage: tax holidays, tax credits & tax-related uplift at oil field investment stages

Mature Sliding scale (project-to-project differentiation) of taxation linked to the factors of mineral rent formation

Late Reserves depletion allowance, dependent on system of factors

Fading Reserves depletion allowance, dependent on system of factors, up to zero rate of special oil taxes

Dr. A. Konoplyanik, Columbia University, New York, USA, 19.04.2010 – Figure 4

Page 7: Alternative Investment Regimes for Direct Foreign and Domestic … · 2013. 9. 17. · Professor, Russian State Oil & Gas University Presentation for the Eurasia Energy Governance

CONTENTS:

1. A piece of theory

2. Licensing oil tax regime of the 1990’s

3. Licensing oil tax regime reform of 2002

4. PSA history in Russia (since 1994): up and down

5. Which way to go further?

Page 8: Alternative Investment Regimes for Direct Foreign and Domestic … · 2013. 9. 17. · Professor, Russian State Oil & Gas University Presentation for the Eurasia Energy Governance

OIL TAX DEVELOPMENTS OF THE EARLY 1990’s

• New oil tax system was developed to represent the changes from “administrative” Soviet-style state economy to a market-oriented economy of post-Soviet Russia:– from 100% state oil business => to private oil companies;– from free-of-charge subsoil use => to chargeable use of the subsoil;– from “indirect” taxation Soviet-style (administratively diminished

domestic energy prices, calculated on cost-plus/cost-minus basis, and state monopoly on external trade) => to direct taxation of oil operations (liberalization of domestic prices and of oil export, plus export customs duties);

• Financial crisis/budget deficit of early 1990s => strong demand for fiscal-oriented oil taxation; strong debates between fiscal-oriented and investment-oriented Ministries => fiscal-oriented has won the battle.

Dr. A. Konoplyanik, Columbia University, New York, USA, 19.04.2010 - Figure 5

Page 9: Alternative Investment Regimes for Direct Foreign and Domestic … · 2013. 9. 17. · Professor, Russian State Oil & Gas University Presentation for the Eurasia Energy Governance

Oil taxation of the 1990s reflects the negative features of the starting phase of economy in transition facing strong financial crisis:

- Revenue-based, not profit-based => at low-price periods costs plus taxes exceeded oil price;

- Permanently increasing number of taxes at federal, regional and local levels (once up to maximum of 47 in total);

- Increase of effective aggregate tax rate into the range of “excessive” values which stipulated low tax collection (effect of “Laffer’s curve”) & non-payments;

- Lack of transparency in tax administration (contradicting regulations);

- No stability & predictability;- De-stimulated new investments;- Destroyed existed investment projects based on “project financing”

principles (JVs).Dr. A. Konoplyanik, Columbia University, New York, USA, 19.04.2010 - Figure 6

RUSSIAN OIL TAXATION OF THE 1990s

Page 10: Alternative Investment Regimes for Direct Foreign and Domestic … · 2013. 9. 17. · Professor, Russian State Oil & Gas University Presentation for the Eurasia Energy Governance

GROSS REVENUE AND FULL PRODUCTION COSTS OF RUSSIAN OIL INDUSTRY (second half of the 1990s)

1910

1384

1134

863

712689

782

807839 853

1109

1371

1491

1887

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

1997 I quarter, 1998 II quarter, 1998 III quarter, 1998 IV quarter, 1998 I quarter, 1999 II quarter, 1999

Rub.

/t.oi

l

Revenue Costs

Source: Основные концептуальные положения развития нефтегазового комплекса России. – М., Минтопэнерго, 2000 («Нефтегазовая Вертикаль», 2000, №1, спецвыпуск)

Dr. A. Konoplyanik, Columbia University, New York, USA, 19.04.2010 - Figure 7

Costs + taxes

Revenues

Page 11: Alternative Investment Regimes for Direct Foreign and Domestic … · 2013. 9. 17. · Professor, Russian State Oil & Gas University Presentation for the Eurasia Energy Governance

DURATION OF THE “GRANDFATHER’S/STABILIZATION CLAUSE” IN RUSSIAN INVESTEMENT-RELATED LEGISLATION

1. Fundamentals of the USSR legislation on Foreign Investments (June 1991)2. Law “On Foreign Investments in the RSFSR” (July 1991)3. Decision of the Government of RF №1375 (July 1992)4. Decree of the President of RF №1466 (September 1993)5. Decree of the President of RF №2285 (December 1993)6. Law “On Production-Sharing Agreements” (December 1995)7. Law “On Investment Activities in RF, Implemented in the Form of Capital Expenditures” (February 1999)8. Law “On Foreign Investments in RF” (July 1999)9. Draft Law “On Concessions” (2003+?)

The whole project-life-cycle (20+5+)Y

ears

Payback period

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

Public law regulation

Civil law regulation

Dr. A. Konoplyanik, Columbia University, New York, USA, 19.04.2010 - Figure 8

Page 12: Alternative Investment Regimes for Direct Foreign and Domestic … · 2013. 9. 17. · Professor, Russian State Oil & Gas University Presentation for the Eurasia Energy Governance

Oil export price

“Instability price”

$ m

ln.

$ / t

onne

Capital expenditures

Operating expenditures

Transportation costs

Taxes

Oil export price

Gross revenueNet present value (NPV), accumulated for project life-time,discounted at 15%, actual taxesNPV at 15%, under tax & tariffs of 1993

Source: AssoNeft

“INSTABILITY PRICE” OF THE RUSSIAN TAX LEGISLATION(for a group of non-integrated oil companies)

Due to constant oil tax increase (pink) CAPEX (green) has diminished and OPEX (blue) has increased in mid-1990s; i.e. development of taxation system has stipulated short-termism and de-stimulated new oil investments

In the 1990s negative NPV has increased almost 2-fold (“instability price” equals almost 100%) => killing existing JVs established on project financing basis

Dr. A. Konoplyanik, Columbia University, New York, USA, 19.04.2010 - Figure 9

Page 13: Alternative Investment Regimes for Direct Foreign and Domestic … · 2013. 9. 17. · Professor, Russian State Oil & Gas University Presentation for the Eurasia Energy Governance

CONTENTS:

1. A piece of theory

2. Licensing oil tax regime of the 1990’s

3. Licensing oil tax regime reform of 2002

4. PSA history in Russia (since 1994): up and down

5. Which way to go further?

Page 14: Alternative Investment Regimes for Direct Foreign and Domestic … · 2013. 9. 17. · Professor, Russian State Oil & Gas University Presentation for the Eurasia Energy Governance

EVOLUTION OF STATE ECONOMIC POLICY IN MODERN RUSSIA – PENDULUM EFFECT

Putin:- improving power vertical- equidistant of oligarchs

Yeltsin:- “take as much sovereignty as you may handle out”- future oligarchs allowed to privatize best state property in exchange for political & economic support

100%

100%Strengthening regionsStrengthening center

Stre

ngth

enin

gst

ate

Stre

ngth

enin

g bu

sines

s

0

Dr. A. Konoplyanik, Columbia University, New York, USA, 19.04.2010 - Figure 10

USSR

Page 15: Alternative Investment Regimes for Direct Foreign and Domestic … · 2013. 9. 17. · Professor, Russian State Oil & Gas University Presentation for the Eurasia Energy Governance

• To liquidate transfer-pricing within oil industry (from ad valorem tax calculation to specific/flat rates) =>

• To increase tax-collection;• To ease tax-administration (to diminish number of taxes by combining

the taxes that have the same pre-tax base, i.e. to substitute a number of “similar” taxes by the single one with retaining the same tax pressure on tax-payers) =>

• To increase transparency of tax system + its simplification; • To redistribute tax revenues allocation in favor of increased federal

share =>• To increase centralization of tax collection and decrease region’s

intentions for self-dependency and autonomy (de facto: from “strong regions = strong Russia” to “more dependant regions on economic transfers from the federal centre”);

• To extract higher portion of economic rent from oil-producing companies and to redistribute it through the federal budget to priority areas of government spending (reflect increasing state role in the economy), etc.

2002 OIL TAX REFORM TASKS

Dr. A. Konoplyanik, Columbia University, New York, USA, 19.04.2010 - Figure 11

Page 16: Alternative Investment Regimes for Direct Foreign and Domestic … · 2013. 9. 17. · Professor, Russian State Oil & Gas University Presentation for the Eurasia Energy Governance

NDPI (MRPT) rate vs. oil price

Source: А.Мещерин. Налогообложение: ножницы Кудрина и пряники для избранных. – «Нефтегазовая вертикаль», 2010, #5, с.21.

Dr. A. Konoplyanik, Columbia University, New York, USA, 19.04.2010 - Figure 12

Page 17: Alternative Investment Regimes for Direct Foreign and Domestic … · 2013. 9. 17. · Professor, Russian State Oil & Gas University Presentation for the Eurasia Energy Governance

Flat-rate tax system: why & what the state loose

Source: A.Konoplyanik. A struggle for mineral rent. - “Petroleum Economist”, August 2003, p. 23 – 24; Андрей Конопляник: «Ухудшение экономических условий возвращает на повестку дня законодателей вопрос целесообразности реабилитации СРП». – «Нефть и капитал», 2009, № 3, с.18-23.

Dr. A. Konoplyanik, Columbia University, New York, USA, 19.04.2010 - Figure 13

Page 18: Alternative Investment Regimes for Direct Foreign and Domestic … · 2013. 9. 17. · Professor, Russian State Oil & Gas University Presentation for the Eurasia Energy Governance

12

11.5

11

10,5

10

9,5

9

8,5

8

7,5

7

6,5

6

5,5

5

4,5

4

3,5

3

2,5

2

1,51

0,5

08 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49

19.01.02

Цена на нефть (Urals), долл./барр.

Размер таможенной пошлины, долл./ барр.

18.03.02

16.05.02

12.07.02

13.09.02

11.11.02

17.01.03

14.03.03

16.05.03

17.07.03

15.09.03

15.11.03

15..01.04

16.03.04

17.05.04

15.07.04

23.01.92

24.06.92

12.08.92

11.12.92

31.12.94

29.03.95

01.04.96

23.01.99

23.04.9916.03.99

22.05.9922.06.99

23.07.99

10.09.99

06.12.99 02.02.00

30.06.00

30.09.00

09.12.00

15.02.01

02.06.01

18.08.01

Dr. A. Konoplyanik, Columbia University, New York, USA, 19.04.2010 - Figure 14

EXPORT CUSTOMS DUTY: CHRONOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENT

Source: M.Belova, E.Melnikova (ENIP&PF)

Page 19: Alternative Investment Regimes for Direct Foreign and Domestic … · 2013. 9. 17. · Professor, Russian State Oil & Gas University Presentation for the Eurasia Energy Governance

12

11.5

11

10,5

10

9,5

9

8,5

8

7,5

7

6,5

6

5,5

5

4,5

4

3,5

3

2,5

2

1,51

0,5

08 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49

19.01.02

Цена на нефть (Urals), долл./барр.

Размер таможенной пошлины, долл./ барр.

18.03.02

16.05.02

12.07.02

13.09.02

11.11.02

17.01.03

14.03.03

16.05.03

17.07.03

15.09.03

15.11.03

15..01.04

16.03.04

17.05.04

15.07.04

23.01.92

24.06.92

12.08.92

11.12.92

31.12.94

29.03.95

01.04.96

23.01.99

23.04.9916.03.99

22.05.9922.06.99

23.07.99

10.09.99

06.12.99

02.02.00

30.06.00

30.09.00

09.12.00

15.02.01

02.06.01

18.08.01

Dr. A. Konoplyanik, Columbia University, New York, USA, 19.04.2010 - Figure 15

EXPORT CUSTOMS DUTY: OIL PRICE RELATED DEVELOPMENT

Source: M.Belova, E.Melnikova (ENIP&PF)

Page 20: Alternative Investment Regimes for Direct Foreign and Domestic … · 2013. 9. 17. · Professor, Russian State Oil & Gas University Presentation for the Eurasia Energy Governance

12

11.5

11

10,5

10

9,5

9

8,5

8

7,5

7

6,5

6

5,5

5

4,5

4

3,5

3

2,5

2

1,51

0,5

08 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49

Цена на нефть (Urals), долл./барр.

Размер таможенной пошлины, долл./ барр.

Таможенные пошлины, установленные правительственной комиссией по защ.мерам во внш.торговле от 17.03.00 г.

Таможенная пошлина, установленная Федеральным законом №126-ФЗ 08.08.2001 г. (вступил в силу с 01.01.2002 г.) - механизм

Таможенная пошлина, установленная Федеральным законом №33-ФЗ 07.05.2004 г. (вступил в силу с 01.08.2004 г.) - механизм

Таможенная пошлина, установленная Постановлением Правительства от 23.01.99 г. №83 - механизм

Dr. A. Konoplyanik, Columbia University, New York, USA, 19.04.2010 - Figure 16

EVOLUTION OF EXPORT CUSTOMS DUTY MECHANISMS

Major deficiency of the three latest export customs duty mechanisms: implementation date of new duty is at the end of two-month period of price monitoring.

The state takes the risks at the period of price rise, companies – of price decline => “Kudrin’s snissors”.

Source: M.Belova, E.Melnikova (ENIP&PF)

Page 21: Alternative Investment Regimes for Direct Foreign and Domestic … · 2013. 9. 17. · Professor, Russian State Oil & Gas University Presentation for the Eurasia Energy Governance

“Kudrin’s snissors” (difference between “fair”/justified & factual oil export duties)

*) “Fair” duties are calculated based on actual formula & factual average monthly pricesSource: А.Мещерин. Налогообложение: ножницы Кудрина и пряники для избранных. – «Нефтегазовая вертикаль», 2010, #5, с.23.

Dr. A. Konoplyanik, Columbia University, New York, USA, 19.04.2010 - Figure 17

Page 22: Alternative Investment Regimes for Direct Foreign and Domestic … · 2013. 9. 17. · Professor, Russian State Oil & Gas University Presentation for the Eurasia Energy Governance

INVESTMENT-RELATED STIMULI IN UPSTREAM OIL TAXATION IN RUSSIA UNDER LICENSING SYSTEM: pre vs. post 2002

Stages of oil field development

Pro-investment stimuli in oil producers’ taxation under the concept of its efficient (non-fiscal) formation

Presence of pro-investment stimuli in taxation of oil producers:

In pre-2002 Russian tax legislation

In post-2002 Russian tax legislation

Early Diminishing of tax burden, especially of revenue-based taxes, shift of tax burden from early to mature stage: tax holidays, tax credits & tax-related uplift at oil field investment stages

Partly existed (investment-related concession on profit tax up to 50% of the tax-base of the latter)

No

Mature Sliding scale (project-to-project differentiation) of taxation linked to the factors of mineral rent formation

Partly existed in indirect form through negotiable character of establishing royalty value in licensing agreement

Basically no; except one common factor (reflecting changes in world oil prices, i.e. Brent spot dated) which does not consider stages of field development, different oil qualities, domestic price changes, real export quotas, etc.

Late Reserves depletion allowance, dependent on system of factors

Basically no. Few regions (i.e. Tatarstan) has been using it for marginal wells/fields via mechanism of diminishing a regional portion of the profit tax

No

Fading Reserves depletion allowance, dependent on system of factors, up to zero rate of special oil taxes

No

Dr. A. Konoplyanik, Columbia University, New York, USA, 19.04.2010 - Figure 18

Page 23: Alternative Investment Regimes for Direct Foreign and Domestic … · 2013. 9. 17. · Professor, Russian State Oil & Gas University Presentation for the Eurasia Energy Governance

2002 OIL TAXATION REFORM: MAJOR POSITIVE RESULTS

New tax system (MRPT):

1. Rather transparent and easy to collect (flat rate),

2. “Exclude” transfer pricing – increase in budgetary revenues,

3. Provide higher predictability of budgetary revenues,

4. Provide opportunity to fill in newly established Stabilization Fund to diminish foreign debt (but which remaining resources are to be invested not into Russian, but into Western economy).

But: All benefits – on fiscal side

Dr. A. Konoplyanik, Columbia University, New York, USA, 19.04.2010 - Figure 19

Page 24: Alternative Investment Regimes for Direct Foreign and Domestic … · 2013. 9. 17. · Professor, Russian State Oil & Gas University Presentation for the Eurasia Energy Governance

2002 OIL TAXATION REFORM: MAJOR NEGATIVERESULTS (1)

New tax system (MRPT):

1. Allows the companies working in new producing areas, on younger fields (usually being received from the state in the course of privatization/loans-for-shares-auctions free-of-charge), to earn incremental profits which are not shared with reserves-owner but mostly transformed into shareholders dividends =>

• Most of younger oilfields were received by the newly established Russian VICs owned & managed by the “new” oilmen, e.g. mostly people originated from the outside of the oil industry, with the short-term financial mentality; for them their newly owned companies were mostly financial assets –easily/cheaply received and to be profitably re-sold ASAP (preferably to Western IOCs) => short-term-oriented management decisions =>

• in the longer run provokes non-recoverable losses of oil in-situ, decreasing recovery rates & recoverable reserves volumes, diminishment of the economic base for tax collection

2. Does not consider natural differences in productivity of oil fields and quality of crudes produced, and deprive the companies working at mature and marginal fields (unfair competition);

Dr. A. Konoplyanik, Columbia University, New York, USA, 19.04.2010 - Figure 20

Page 25: Alternative Investment Regimes for Direct Foreign and Domestic … · 2013. 9. 17. · Professor, Russian State Oil & Gas University Presentation for the Eurasia Energy Governance

2002 OIL TAXATION REFORM: MAJOR NEGATIVERESULTS (2)

New tax system (MRPT):

3. Deprive small and medium non-integrated companies, which possess 1-2 producing licenses, usually at marginal fields, and which supply oil at domestic market, contrary to VIOCs that possess in their portfolio bigger number of licenses, incl. larger and highly productive fields;

4. Creates prerequisites for the bankruptcy of small and medium companies by VIOCs, for further monopolization of the oil industry, depriving competition -but older resource base demands stimulation of independent oil sector;

5. Stimulate sample development of highly productive fields only. Prevent comprehensive subsoil management and complete extraction of non-renewable energy resources;

6. Deprive exploration, especially in Greenfield areas.

But: All negative consequences – on investment and macroeconomic (through indirect and multiple effects) side => MRPT = simplification/primitivisation of subsoil payments system in favour of increasing tax collection but depriving rational subsoil use

Dr. A. Konoplyanik, Columbia University, New York, USA, 19.04.2010 - Figure 21

Page 26: Alternative Investment Regimes for Direct Foreign and Domestic … · 2013. 9. 17. · Professor, Russian State Oil & Gas University Presentation for the Eurasia Energy Governance

Oil Taxation since 2006• 2006 = maximum strengthening of MRPT pressure, since then

– few attempts to stimulate oil investments:– 2007: MRPT allowance for highly depleted (>80%) fields (based on

good experience of Tatarstan & Khanty-Mansi region) – but proposed MRPT differentiation was neglected,

– 2007, 2009: Individual concessions for Greenfields => MRPT holidays (up to 7-10-15 years & up to 10-15-25-35 mln tonnes cumulative oil production per project) in new provinces (East Siberia & offshore),

– 2009: non-taxed by MRPT minimum price level increased from 9 to 15 $/bbl, profit tax rate diminished from 24 to 20%, depreciation premium increased 3-fold, oil export duties cancelled (temporary?) for new East Siberian fields.

• but still fiscal equalization spread over the whole country (forbidden differentiation) – no alternatives to fiscal “MRPT + export duty” concept.

Dr. A. Konoplyanik, Columbia University, New York, USA, 19.04.2010 - Figure 21

Page 27: Alternative Investment Regimes for Direct Foreign and Domestic … · 2013. 9. 17. · Professor, Russian State Oil & Gas University Presentation for the Eurasia Energy Governance

CONTENTS:

1. A piece of theory

2. Licensing oil tax regime of the 1990’s

3. Licensing oil tax regime reform of 2002

4. PSA history in Russia (since1994): up and down

5. Which way to go further?

Page 28: Alternative Investment Regimes for Direct Foreign and Domestic … · 2013. 9. 17. · Professor, Russian State Oil & Gas University Presentation for the Eurasia Energy Governance

• To create legal basis for “project financing”,

• To introduce civil law (contractual law) principles into Russian legislation, incl. mutual responsibility of the State and the Investor,

• To provide legal and tax stability, transparency, predictability for the projects with highest CAPEX per project value, longest investment cycle and project’s life-time,

• To introduce competition between two mutually-equal investment regimes for investor thus increasing their investor-friendly character,

• To introduce profit-base taxation with “double differentiation” – based on common mechanism (sliding scale of IRR-based production-sharing) but being individualized for each particular project, etc.

Dr. A. Konoplyanik, Columbia University, New York, USA, 19.04.2010 - Figure 23

PSA LEGISLATION: MAJOR TASKS (as foreseen by its drafters in 1993-1996)

Page 29: Alternative Investment Regimes for Direct Foreign and Domestic … · 2013. 9. 17. · Professor, Russian State Oil & Gas University Presentation for the Eurasia Energy Governance

Basic difference between tax plus royalty and PSA regime

Dr. A. Konoplyanik, Columbia University, New York, USA, 19.04.2010 - Figure 24

Page 30: Alternative Investment Regimes for Direct Foreign and Domestic … · 2013. 9. 17. · Professor, Russian State Oil & Gas University Presentation for the Eurasia Energy Governance

Concessions (T+R) vs. PSA worldwide: Distribution curves (2004)

1 1

2

17

2

4

13

1212

6

1 1

8

1

33

1 1

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

500 - 1000 1000-2000 2000 - 5000 5000 - 10000 10000 - 20000 20000 - 30000 30000 - 50000

GDP per capita, $

числ

о ст

ран

C (T+R)

PSA

PSA/C13

5

21

28

23

18

6

16

19

8

3

01

0

5

223

22

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

500 - 1000 1000-2000 2000 - 5000 5000 - 10000 10000 -20000

20000 -30000

30000 -50000

GDP per capita, $

числ

о ст

ран

C (T+R)

PSA

PSA/C

(A) By numbers of the states (B) By number of the oil-producing states

Calculated by ENIP&PF (M.Belova) with involvement of data provided by Barrows Inc.

Dr. A. Konoplyanik, Columbia University, New York, USA, 19.04.2010 - Figure 25

Page 31: Alternative Investment Regimes for Direct Foreign and Domestic … · 2013. 9. 17. · Professor, Russian State Oil & Gas University Presentation for the Eurasia Energy Governance

Two equal regimes (author’s historical proposal)

Procedure of concluding and implementing of

PSA, regulated by the Law on PSA

Procedure of receiving a license and implementing of licensing

agreement, regulated by the Law on the Subsoil

Winner of the bidding procedure

Bidding procedure (tender and/or auction), regulated by the Law on the Subsoil, including mandatory

requests of the State to be included in the future license (licensing

agreement) and/or PSA

Source: А.Аверкин, А.Конопляник, М.Субботин. Инвестор свои деньги не отдаст. Пока не получит правового единообразия. - "Нефть и капитал",1995, № 12, с. 10-12

Dr. A. Konoplyanik, Columbia University, New York, USA, 19.04.2010 - Figure 26

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Comparison of flat-rate MRPT and PSA systems

Source: A.Konoplyanik. A struggle for mineral rent. - “Petroleum Economist”, August 2003, p. 23 – 24; Андрей Конопляник: «Ухудшение экономических условий возвращает на повестку дня законодателей вопрос целесообразности реабилитации СРП». – «Нефть и капитал», 2009, № 3, с.18-23.

Dr. A. Konoplyanik, Columbia University, New York, USA, 19.04.2010 - Figure 27

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PSA PSALicensing system (T+R)

PSA vs. LICENSING (T+R) PREFERENTIAL APPLICATION ZONES

1

2

3

4

Unit reserves volume of fields, mln. t /fieldNumber of fields, unitsUnit reserves volume of projects, mln.t /projectNumber of projects, units

12

34

Number of fields,

units

Unit reserves volume

mln.t/ field

Dr. A. Konoplyanik, Columbia University, New York, USA, 19.04.2010 - Figure 28

Source: A.Konoplyanik. The Fight Against PSAs In Russia: Who is to Benefit and Why Not the State? –“International Energy Law & Taxation Review”, Issue 10, October 2003, p.277-286.

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Cumulated DCF/NPV of individual fields and united project (Udmurtia project case)

Ч и с ты й д и с к о н ти ро в а н н ы й д о хо д п о к а ж д о м у м е с то ро ж д е н и ю и в с ум м е

-30 0 0

-25 0 0

-20 0 0

-15 0 0

-10 0 0

-5 0 0

0

5 0 0

10 0 0

15 0 0

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 0 1 1 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 19 20

г о д ы

млн

. руб

.

А ле кс е ев с ко е

Ершов с ко е

К ам ба р с к о е

Ник о ль с ко е

Нов ос е лк инс к ое

Погр ан ич н о е

Х м е ле в с к о е

Сев ер о -Ник оль с к о е

В СЕГО

ЕД И НЫ Й ПРО ЕК Т

Source: В.Грушин, А.Конопляник, Н.Оксенгорн. О порядке перевода мелких месторождений углеводородов на режим СРП (в порядке обсуждения). – «Нефтяное хозяйство», июнь 2002, № 6, с.83-89.

Dr. A. Konoplyanik, Columbia University, New York, USA, 19.04.2010 - Figure 29

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CHANGING RANGE OF PSA vs. LICENSING ZONES WITH OIL PRICE FLUCTUATIONS

PSA zone (2) Licensing regime zone (2)

1

2

3

4

Licensing regime zone (1)

PSA zone (2)

Price (1)

Price (2)

PSA zone (1)

PSA zone (1)

Price, USD/t

5

- See previous Fig.- Overall risk of financing oil and gas projects dependent on resource range zone

1 2 3 45

Number of fields,

units

Unit reserves volume

mln.t/ field

Risk

s

Dr. A. Konoplyanik, Columbia University, New York, USA, 19.04.2010 - Figure 30

Source: A.Konoplyanik. The Fight Against PSAs In Russia: Who is to Benefit and Why Not the State? – “International Energy Law & Taxation Review”, Issue 10, October 2003, p.277-286; Андрей Конопляник: «Ухудшение экономических условий возвращает на повестку дня законодателей вопрос целесообразности реабилитации СРП». – «Нефть и капитал», 2009, № 3, с.18-23.

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• PSA regime has been marginalized (from open-end list of 250+, first to 3+28, now to 3+5 (?) PSA projects): window for small PSAs is closed, window for mega-projects is narrowed as much as possible;

• Losers: Russian state and project-oriented foreign investors; plus most of Russian oil companies; plus Russian manufacturers which lobbied against PSA;

• Winners: were expected to be two particular “Russian” VIOCs, who lobbied against PSA in order to increase their own selling price;

• No new PSA projects can be foreseen as a general rule in the nearest future (only on a pure exceptional basis), until PSA regime would be effectively restored;

• Sakhalin-2 story is not the fault of PSA system;• PSA regime is to be and would be restored (hopefully rather soon)

since this is in the long-term interests of Russia

Dr. A. Konoplyanik, Columbia University, New York, USA, 19.04.2010 - Figure 31

PSA STORY: MAJOR CURRENT RESULTS

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CONTENTS:

1. Preamble

2. Licensing oil tax regime of the 1990’s

3. Licensing oil tax regime reform of 2002

4. 10 years of PSA history (1994-2004): up and down

5. Russian oil taxation: current plans

6. Which way to go further?

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Russia is not obliged to implement domestically only one legal regime for subsoil use, especially because of huge geographical dimensions and geological complexities in different areas of the country.

Russia allowed application of licenses, concessions, PSAs, risk-service contracts within its territory by the law “On the Subsoil” (1992, Art.12).

Russia has already implemented (since 1996) two regimes for subsoil use in its legislation (licensing system and PSA), but the latter has been consistently marginalized.

Russia is one among 13 oil-producing countries (with cumulative proved oil reserves equal to 9.1% and crude production to 23.2% of worldwide) (*) that implement more than one legal regime for subsoil use.

Russia is placed on the economic development scale between the more developed countries with one (licensing) regime and less developed countries with one (PSA) regime. (*) Source: ENIP&PF/Barrows/2004

HOW MANY INVESTMENT REGIMES/TAX SYSTEM NEEDED?

Dr. A. Konoplyanik, Columbia University, New York, USA, 19.04.2010 - Figure 32

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0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

0 200000 400000 600000 800000 1000000 1200000 1400000 1600000 1800000 2000000

production, bbl/d

GD

P pe

r cap

ita, $ T+R

PSAPSA/T+RPSA/T+R (excl.Russia)

Calculated by ENIP&PF (M.Belova) with involvement of data provided by Barrows Inc.

Source: A. Konoplianik. Russian Oil Taxation System Development (a continuous debate between supporters of fiscal-oriented and investment-oriented approaches). - 15th International Petroleum Tax Conference, 11-12.11.2004, Oslo, Norway

Oil taxation models vs. average GDP per capita, oil production and reserves (2004)

Size of the ball = average proved reserves per each group of countries

Dr. A. Konoplyanik, Columbia University, New York, USA, 19.04.2010 - Figure 33

Page 40: Alternative Investment Regimes for Direct Foreign and Domestic … · 2013. 9. 17. · Professor, Russian State Oil & Gas University Presentation for the Eurasia Energy Governance

POSSIBLE COMPOSITION OF INVESTMENT REGIMES (LEGAL + TAX SYSTEM) IN RUSSIAN SUBSOIL USE

Legal system

Administrative (public) Civil

Licenses Concessions

Licenses with allowances

(differentiated licensing regime)

PSAsTax

trea

tmen

t

Spec

ial (

incl

.in

divi

dual

ized

)G

ener

al(c

omm

on)

Dr. A. Konoplyanik, Columbia University, New York, USA, 19.04.2010 - Figure 34

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Investment regime Investment regime’s characteristics during project life-timeTax pressure Stability

Licensing Non-optimal (high), established unilaterally

No

Licensing with allowances (special/differentiated tax regimes)

Non-optimal (high/diminished), established unilaterally

No

Concessions Non-optimal (high), established unilaterally

Yes

PSA Optimal, negotiated Yes

DIFFERENT INVESTMENT REGIMES IN SUBSOIL USE: COMPARATIVE LEGAL & TAX ADVANTAGES/DISADVANTAGES

Dr. A. Konoplyanik, Columbia University, New York, USA, 19.04.2010 - Figure 35

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PSA PSALicensing system

PROPOSED APPLICATION ZONES FOR DIFFERENT INVESTMENT REGIMES IN SUBSOIL USE IN RUSSIA

1

2

34

Unit reserves volume, mln.t/field

Unit reserves volume of fields, mln.t/fieldUnit reserves volume of projects, mln.t/project Number of fields, unitsNumber of projects, units

12

34

Number of fields, units

Concessions

Civil law

Civil law(Administrative) public law

License+alllowa

nces

Ris

ks

Dr. A. Konoplyanik, Columbia University, New York, USA, 19.04.2010 - Figure 36

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Thank you for your attention

<www.konoplyanik.ru>

Views expressed in this presentation do not necessarily reflect(may/should reflect) and/or coincide (may/should be consistent) withofficial position of JSC Gazprombank, its stockholders and/or its/theiraffiliated persons, and are within full responsibility of the author of thispresentation.