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1 3 S TO SUCCESS Marc Boner / Marvin Homburg / Isabel Kreie / Lara Von Petersdorff-Campen AMANGO

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Page 1: AMANGO - charterquest.odoo.co.zacharterquest.odoo.co.za/web/static/src/files/docs... · Niobium Phosphates Iron Ore and Manganese Segments by 2016 global revenue in USD million 97.760

1

3 S TO SUCCESS

Marc Boner / Marvin Homburg / Isabel Kreie / Lara Von Petersdorff-Campen

AMANGO

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2

3 S to Success

Sustainability

ShareholdersStandards

Socio-politics Production

Safety & Health

People Cost

Financing

Environment

AMANGO

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3

Balance-sheet de-leverage or share buy-back

Sell residential apartments and deleverage

Strategic joint venture (JV) decision in Canada

Exit Canadian market

Strategic disposal in Brazil Sell AMA-NP to CMOC

PrioritizationUrgent to long-term decisions

Corporate Reconstruction and Reorganization

Secure global leadership positions in diamonds, copper and PGM’s

Managing divisional performance group-wide

Operational risk and industrial action in Australia

Standardize safety system & build new shaft

Overhaul Bonus-Malus-System

1

2

3

4

5

6

Level ofriskappetite

urgencyLong‐term

 relevance

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Level ofriskappetite

urgencyLong‐term

 relevance

PrioritizationUrgent to long-term decisions

1

2

3

4

5

6

Balance-sheet de-leverage or share buy-back

Strategic joint venture (JV) decision in Canada

Strategic disposal in Brazil

Corporate Reconstruction and Reorganization

Managing divisional performance group-wide

Operational risk and industrial action in Australia

Sell residential apartments and deleverage

Exit Canadian market

Sell AMA-NP to CMOC

Secure global leadership positions in diamonds, copper and PGM’s

Standardize safety system & build new shaft

Overhaul Bonus-Malus-System

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5

Level ofriskappetite

urgencyLong‐term

 relevance

PrioritizationUrgent to long-term decisions

1

2

3

4

5

6

Balance-sheet de-leverage or share buy-back

Strategic joint venture (JV) decision in Canada

Strategic disposal in Brazil

Corporate Reconstruction and Reorganization

Managing divisional performance group-wide

Operational risk and industrial action in Australia

Sell residential apartments and deleverage

Exit Canadian market

Sell AMA-NP to CMOC

Secure global leadership positions in diamonds, copper and PGM’s

Standardize safety system & build new shaft

Overhaul Bonus-Malus-System

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6

Level ofriskappetite

urgencyLong‐term

 relevance

PrioritizationUrgent to long-term decisions

1

2

3

4

5

6

Balance-sheet de-leverage or share buy-back

Strategic joint venture (JV) decision in Canada

Strategic disposal in Brazil

Corporate Reconstruction and Reorganization

Managing divisional performance group-wide

Operational risk and industrial action in Australia

Sell residential apartments and deleverage

Exit Canadian market

Sell AMA-NP to CMOC

Secure global leadership positions in diamonds, copper and PGM’s

Standardize safety system & build new shaft

Overhaul Bonus-Malus-System

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7

Level ofriskappetite

urgencyLong‐term

 relevance

PrioritizationUrgent to long-term decisions

1

2

3

4

5

6

Balance-sheet de-leverage or share buy-back

Strategic joint venture (JV) decision in Canada

Strategic disposal in Brazil

Corporate Reconstruction and Reorganization

Managing divisional performance group-wide

Operational risk and industrial action in Australia

Sell residential apartments and deleverage

Exit Canadian market

Sell AMA-NP to CMOC

Secure global leadership positions in diamonds, copper and PGM’s

Standardize safety system & build new shaft

Overhaul Bonus-Malus-System

Page 8: AMANGO - charterquest.odoo.co.zacharterquest.odoo.co.za/web/static/src/files/docs... · Niobium Phosphates Iron Ore and Manganese Segments by 2016 global revenue in USD million 97.760

8

Level ofriskappetite

urgencyLong‐term

 relevance

PrioritizationUrgent to long-term decisions

1

2

3

4

5

6

Balance-sheet de-leverage or share buy-back

Strategic joint venture (JV) decision in Canada

Strategic disposal in Brazil

Corporate Reconstruction and Reorganization

Managing divisional performance group-wide

Operational risk and industrial action in Australia

Sell residential apartments and deleverage

Exit Canadian market

Sell AMA-NP to CMOC

Secure global leadership positions in diamonds, copper and PGM’s

Standardize safety system & build new shaft

Overhaul Bonus-Malus-System

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9

Coal Nickel PGMs Diamonds CopperNiobium

PhosphatesIron Ore and Manganese

Segments by 2016 global revenue in USD million 97.760 3.650 12.564 13.738 39.322 27.200 37.667

CAGR Prior 10 Year

CAGR Forecast to 2027

Fit of Segment´s Critical Success Factorswith Group/Parental Skills & Resources

Fit of Segment´s Parenting Opportunitieswith Group/Parent Skills and Resources

Corporate reconstruction & reorganization

C B - A B+ C B/CEvaluation

Focus: Global leadership positions in diamonds, copper and PGM’s

Disposal strategy decision: Core vs. non-core

1

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Divisional PerformanceProblems given the current bonus system

Ramped up EOY production violation of safety standards

Expenditures on trainings cut, standard service schedule postponed (Reward based on ROCE and EBIT)

Resorting to using base metals for outside competitors for refining needs due to higher internal charges

2

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A 3-Step-Bonus-Malus-System-OverhaulSolution to Evaluating & Rewarding Divisional Performance

Set up Bonus System with overhauled KPIs• Degree to which base metals are sourced internally Strengthening internal sourcing

• Limitation level to production load (level forbidden to exceed) To the benefit of safety standards of workers

Establish tracking measures & reporting standards on new KPIs • Screening of divisional performance by unbiased, objective manager collecting data & evaluation for weighted

mix of KPIs (higher revenue vs. production load etc.)

• Quarterly reportings on measures & evaluation by performance manager in charge

Reward & sanction according to manager performance KPIs• Proper incentivation needed: Penalty points must hurt more than reward of additional revenues

• Highest bonus level achieved when highest revenue outcome while keeping balance with safety standards

2

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Several safety problems over the last months

Unsatisfied workers

Losses of new shaft

Taking lives or labourOperational risk and industrial action in Australia

3

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Image damageWorkers are trying to be heard

Earthquake in ChileNo measures to respond swiftly

Industrial unrest in Peru, Colombia and SAWorkers claim higher wages and better safety standards

Evacuation in AustraliaCopper mine is based on a faulty geotechnical design

010203

Production targets > safety standards

3

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Safety firstCut Costs in Right Sections

Introduce an automatic safety system (USD 4m. implementation cost)

Close the old shaft in Australia

Negotiate wages or benefits from a better starting point

Build up a new shaft (NPV USD 46m.)

3

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Mines in South-AfricaBalance sheet de-leverage or share buy-back

Lose support from the government

Sell-off of Amango shares

Revoke of mining permits and other rights

Face legal issues through lay-offs

4

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Coal and iron ore market in SA

22%

78%

EmployeesIn coal and iron ore in South AfricaOther employees

160,000

15%

85%

Earnings contribution1

Of coal and iron ore in South AfricaOf other earnings

USD 2,038m.

1Referring to EBIT in 2016 without re-measurements

4

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AlternativesDispose iron ore and coal mines

Sell residential property

Concentration on core assets

Government support

Cash

Employee friendly

Sell residential apartments

4

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De-leverage or share buy-back

NPV: USD 4,899m.

Reduced probability of bankruptcy (gearing 98%)

Disc. FCF USD 402m.

NPV: USD 6,151m.

High probability of bankruptcy (gearing 184%)

No influence on FCF

New investors through improved credit rating

No or negative impact on credit rating

More financial flexibility

Loss of financing flexibility; higher uncertainty

De-leverage Share buy-back

4

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With regard to the pillars

Approach a people business / attractive employer

CFG

Save 6% operating cost / increased operating efficiency

Increase company value by USD 6.4bn. / increased financial flexibility

AHave pursued government support / crucial for long-term strategy

4

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Quinta’s projectJoint Venture Decision in Canada

Protest movement “Idle No More”

Temporary blip in commodity prices

Quinta is about to set up first coal mining project

5

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Quinta’s Project

Method of standalone long wall mining

Construction takes at least 2 years

Very expensive and risky

Coal production would start in 2019 earliest

Option #1

Build the standalone construction and invest in the coal sector.

Option #2

Do not start setting up the construction and leave Canadian coal market step by step.

vs.

5

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0

5

10

15

20

2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2030

Mar

gin

(mUS

D)

Year

Margin D1

Margin D2

Margin D3

USD -0.92m. decline in revenues of coal business

USD -1.496m. decline in capital employed

Quinta’s Project

2015/2016

1 2Low Margin as coal price declines again

Joint Ventures are a new risk for mining

5

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23

Declining coal prices and demand in the future will not ensure profitability

American partner will not solve conflictwith “Idle no more”

High transportation cost to enter Asian market from Canada

JV Assessment

Lowest cost to step out

Option #1

Build the standalone construction and invest in the coal sector.

Option #2

Do not start setting up the construction and leave Canadian coal market step by step.

vs.

5

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With regard to the pillars

No increase in harming the environmentBCEF

Stop of protests against AMANGO / minimized risk

Investment in other metals than coal / increased sustainability

Ban of uncertainty / increased average operating efficiency

5

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Minas RioStrategic disposal in Brazil

Political and economical instability

Preferential access to BRICS

CMOC to buy AMA-NP for USD 1.5bn.

6

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Pay off long-term liabilities USD 450m.

Buy AMA-NP’s equity for USD 1,050m.

USD 350m. below book value

CMOCs Binding Offer

450450

1,050

‐350

25% value loss

6

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AMA-NP’s FCF & WACC

FCF (m. USD)

EBIT (tax 31%) 49.52

Depreciation 1.22

Amortization 0

Net Working Capital ‐32.00

FCF  3.39

Cost of Equity

Risk Free Rate 3%

MarketPremium 5%

Equity Beta 1.824

Cost of Equity 12.12%

WACC

D/E‐ratio 0.32

Cost of Debt 6.20%

WACC AMA‐NP 10.21%

WACC CMOC 10.10%

6

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NPV AMA-NP vs. CMOC

100

28

NPV CMOC

NPV AMA‐NP

Sell AMA-NP

1million USD

1

1

6

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With regard to the pillars

No change in harming the environmentBCDFG

Minimize risk by leaving political instable Brazil

Increase productivity by releasing 7,200 employees

Increase average operating efficiency by selling the inefficient AMA-NP

Raise credit rating by receiving USD 1.5 bn. from disposals

6

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Base Metal Retreat

End coal business in Australia

Sell Niobium and Phosphates in Brazil

Sell off complete Brazilian company

Close down AmaCoal in South Africa

End coal business in Canada

2017

2017

2017 2018

2018

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3 S to Success

StandardsShareholdersSustainability

Increased security standards satisfy unions and people

Managerial division performance insures standardized evaluation

Reaching operating cost savings of USD 5.8bn. in Sep. 2018

Reaching target net debt of USD 10bn. in mid-2018

Reaching goal of 3 sustainable business units

Socio-economic impact through new safety systems

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THANK YOU!

Marc Boner / Marvin Homburg / Isabel Kreie / Lara von Petersdorff-Campen

3 S TO SUCCESS