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The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 The Atlantic/Aspen Institute Imagining 2024 1 America Looks to 2024: The A tlantic   /Aspen Institute Survey Key Findings

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Full results of 2014 The Atlantic/Aspen Institute Survey

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    The Atlantic/Asp

    Imagin

    1

    America Looks to 2024: The A tlant ic/Aspen Institute SKey Findings

    http://www.aspenideas.org/aif
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    What we did

    2

    Penn Schoen Berland, working with Burson-Marsteller, conduconline interviews with the United States general population fro2014.

    The overall margin of error is 2.19%

    The data presented in this study are reflective of U.S. Census Bdemographic statistics in terms of gender, age, ethnicity, incomparty.

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    What we learned

    Two wars overseas. The Great Recession. George WBarack Obama. The Tea Party. Obamacare. Gay marria

    surveillance.

    Americans have experienced an incredible amount ofover the past 10 years. What weve learned is that th

    bracing for more change in the next 10 years.

    Normally certain about Americas economic strength a

    in the world but uncertain on social issues, Americans future in which the countrys strength is in doubt but

    unity on social issues.

    3

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    The key takeaways

    Americans are highly uncertain about the countrys strength in 10 years.

    The EconomyWe are moving from an Age of Possibility to an Age of Impossibilsaying the U.S. will be the Land of Opportunity in 10 years, and many envisioning a countharder to get ahead and harder to get a good education.

    Our Role in the WorldAmerica as The Indispensable Nation will become A More Nation, predicting China, not the U.S., will lead the world in 10 years.

    Politics and GovernmentThe future of our ability to govern ourselves is in doubt, wabout our ability to have effective government with regard to economic issues and key servhealthcare and education.

    Meanwhile, there is increasing certainty on the shape of society.

    The Social FabricA new social issue consensus is emerging, with debates around issex marriage, legalizing marijuana and climate changeon the way toward being resolved.

    TechnologyThe United States of Technology is a bright spot in our future, envisionisurrounding us and improving our lives with tech entrepreneurs becoming the countrys rea

    And Americans have interesting views on The Way We Will Live, envisioning greater connreligious institutions, fewer Americans entering the institution of marriage and less time spent o

    4

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    Imagining 2024:We are moving from an Age of Possibility to an Impossibility

    5

    65 f A i i d h U S

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    65 percent of Americans are not convinced the U.S.will be on the right track in 10 years

    28%

    37%

    35%Right Track

    Don't Know

    Wrong Direction

    6

    AMERICAS PATHDo you think the United States will be on the right track or headed in the wrong direction in 10

    ALL

    T thi d d t A i ill b id d th

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    Two-thirds do not say America will be considered theland of opportunity in 10 years

    7

    LAND OF OPPORTUNITY IN 10 YEARSDo you think America will be considered the "land of opportunity" in 10 years?

    YES NO DONT KNOW

    33% 42% 24%

    ALL

    7 i 10 A i t t i th t i 10

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    23%49%16%

    21%61%

    30%More likely to getahead

    Don't Know

    Less likely to getahead

    7 in 10 Americans are not certain that, in 10 years,working hard and playing by the rules will bring success

    8

    IN 10 YEARS

    HARD WORK AND PLAYING BY RULES IN 10 YEARSTen years ago, do you think that people who worked hard and played by the rules were more or less lik

    In 10 years, do you think that people who work hard and play by the rules will be more or less likely

    10 YEARS AGO

    ALLALL

    Hi i Af i A i i ifi tl lik l

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    Hispanics, African-Americans are significantly more likelythan white Americans to foresee opportunity in 10 years

    9

    29%

    45% 47%

    White African-American Hispanic

    AMERICA WILL BE LAND OF OPPORTUNITY

    IN 10 YEARSDo you think America will be considered the "land of

    opportunity" in 10 years? Showing Yes

    24%

    44%

    White African-America

    MORE LIKELY TO GET AHEAWORK/PLAYING BY RULES

    In 10 years, do you think that peopleplay by the rules will be more or less

    Showing More like

    T o thirds sa income ineq alit ill gro o er the

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    Two-thirds say income inequality will grow over thenext 10 years

    10

    WEALTH GAP IN 10 YEARSDo you think that the gap between the rich and poor will

    grow or shrink in the United States over the next 10 years?

    16%

    18%

    66%Grow

    Don't Know

    Shrink

    ALL

    Age 65+: 79% say Gro Millennials: 59% say G

    Most do not say public schools or the performance of

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    47%

    22%

    31%

    Most do not say public schools or the performance ofAmerican students will get better in 10 years

    11

    MATH AND SCIENCE RANK IN 2024U.S. students are currently ranked 31stin math and 24thin sciencewhen compared to 65 other top industrial countries. Do you expect

    the U.S. to rank higher or lower in these areas in 10 years?

    PUBLIC SCHOOL SYSTEMTen years from now, do you expect the

    school system to be better or worse

    44%

    24%

    32% Higher

    Don't Know

    Lower

    Millennials: 24% say Higher Age 65+: 41% say Higher

    African-Americans: 44

    ALL ALL

    Americans tend to say private schools are the best

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    Americans tend to say private schools are the bestoption for children and will be in 10 years as well

    12

    23%

    17%

    10% 11%

    32% 33%

    16% 18%19%

    Public school Charter school Private school Home schooling

    SCHOOL OPTIONS TODAY AND IN 10 YEARSIn your opinion, what do you think is the best option for school-aged children in America tod

    In ten years, what do you think will be the best option for school-aged children in America

    Income > $75k: 41% say Private Income

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    29%

    50%

    20%

    Most think college will be more important in the future, butonly 29 percent of parents say they will be able to afford it

    13

    IMPORTANCE OF COLLEGE DEGREE IN 10 YEARSIF PARENTS: Do you think it will be more important, less important

    or no more or less important for your children to have a college

    degree in 10 years than it was for you?

    COLLEGE AFFORDABILITYIF PARENTS: By the time they go to c

    you will be able to afford your children

    ALL

    56%

    26% 7%11%

    ALL

    More Important No More or Less Important

    Less Important Don't Know

    Most parents foresee a tough job market for their

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    Most parents foresee a tough job market for theirchildren in 10 years

    14

    EASE OF FINDING JOBS FOR CHILDREN IN 10 YEARS

    IF PARENTS: In 10 years, will it be easy or difficult for your children to find good jobs?

    9% 16% 38% 26%

    Very easy Somewhat easy Somewhat difficult Very difficult Do

    ALL

    Despite a negative economic outlook 6 in 10 parents

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    60%21%

    18% Yes

    No

    Don't know

    Despite a negative economic outlook, 6 in 10 parentsexpress optimism about their childrens well-being

    15

    CHILDREN BETTER OFF IN 10 YEARS THAN PARENTS WERE AT SAME AIF PARENTS: In 10 years, do you think your children will be better off than you were at their ag

    ALL

    Women have a more pessimistic view of their

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    44%31%

    18%

    54%52% 45% 49%

    72%

    Better off financially On path to affordingretirement

    Afford children'scollege education

    Children better offthan parents were

    Women Men

    Women have a more pessimistic view of theirpersonal and household finances than men do

    16

    VIEWS BY GENDER: IN 10 YEARS

    QUESTIONS SHOWN: In 10 years, do you expect to be better off or worse off financially than you are today? Showing Better off In 10 years, do you think you will be on a path to affording retirement? Showing Yes By the time they go to college, do you think you will be able to afford your childrens college education ? Showing Yes IF PARENT: In 10 years, do you think your children will be better off than you were at their age? Showing Yes In 10 years, do you think you will be able to afford to go on regular vacations? Showing Yes

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    Imagining 2024:

    America as The Indispensable Nation will become Dispensable Nation

    17

    Only 3 in 10 envision Americas global standing

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    Only 3 in 10 envision America s global standingbeing on the rise in 10 years

    18

    AMERICAS GLOBAL STANDING IN 10 YEARSDo you think Americas global standing will be on the rise or in decline in 10 years?

    30% 43% 26

    On the Rise In Decline Don't Kno

    ALL

    Most think China not the U S will be a superpower

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    68%

    44% 43%

    21%13% 9%

    China U.S. Russia Japan UK Germany

    Most think China not the U.S. will be a superpowerin 10 years

    19

    SUPERPOWERS IN 2024Which countries do you think will be considered superpowers in 10 years? Please name as many countrie

    Income of >$75k: 79% say China

    A majority believe China will be the worlds biggest

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    A majority believe China will be the world s biggesteconomic force in 10 years

    20

    TOP GLOBAL ECONOMIC FORCE IN 10 YEARSWhich country do you think will be the worlds biggest economic force in 10 years?

    20%

    53%

    U.S.

    China

    Income of >$75k: 63% say Income of

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    Only 22 percent say there will be more peace aroundthe world in 10 years

    21

    22% 55% 23%

    More peace Less peace Don't know

    ALL

    WORLD PEACE IN 10 YEARSIn 10 years, do you think there will be more or less peace around the world than there is tod

    Millennials: 28% say More peace Age 65+: 15% say More peace

    Democrats: 27% say More peace Republicans: 14% say More peace

    Almost half foresee the U S having engaged in armed

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    Almost half foresee the U.S. having engaged in armedconflict with Iran by 2024

    22

    ARMED CONFLICT WITH THE U.S. IN 10 YEARSIn the next 10 years, do you think the United States will have engaged in armed conflict with any of the fo

    45% 31%

    Iran Russia Ch

    ALL(Showing yes)

    Millennials: 44% say Russia, 25% say China Age 65+: 7% say Russia, 6% say China

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    Imagining 2024:

    The future of our ability to govern ourselves is in dee

    23

    Two-thirds are not convinced Americans will be more

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    Two thirds are not convinced Americans will be moreunified in 10 years

    24

    Moreunified49%Less

    unified

    32%

    Don'tknow19%

    More unified

    Less unified

    Don't know

    UNITY 10 YEARS AGODo you think Americans were more or less unified as a

    people 10 years ago than we are today?

    Moreunified33%

    Lessunified41%

    Don'tknow26%

    UNITY IN 10 YEDo you think Americans will be m

    people in 10 years than w

    ALL ALL

    A majority think government will be bigger in 10

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    A majority think government will be bigger in 10years, but most do not say it will be more effective

    25

    EFFECTIVENESS OF GO10 YEARS

    Do you think the American gove

    or less effective in 10 years

    35%

    33%

    32%ALL

    18%

    29%

    54%Bigger

    Don't Know

    Smaller

    SIZE OF GOVERNMENT IN 10 YEARSDo you think the size of government will be bigger or

    smaller in 10 years than it is today?

    ALL

    Americans tend to foresee moving forward on energy and

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    21%

    16%

    18%

    15%

    32%

    34%

    36

    3

    37%

    35%

    35%

    34%

    29%

    21%

    20%

    18%

    17%

    Federal budget/national debt

    Rising costs of college education

    Traditional family values

    Taxes

    Health care

    Defense and national security

    Homeland security and terrorism

    Energy independence

    Alternative energy sources

    g gysecurity, moving backward on taxes and the cost of college

    26

    PROGRESS/REGRESSION ON ISSUES IN THE NEXT 10 YEARSWhen it comes to addressing each of the following issues, do you think that the United States will have made pr

    backward or will there have been no change in the next 10 years?

    Top Four:Madeprogress

    BottomFour:Gonebackward

    In themiddle

    ALL

    Most believe Obamacare will either look very different

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    yor cease to exist by 2024

    27

    STATUS OF OBAMACARE IN 10 YEARSWhat do you think the Affordable Care Act, also known as Obamacare, will be like in 10 yea

    18%35% 32%

    It will exist with only minor

    changes

    It will exist but with major

    changes

    It will no longer exist D

    ALL

    Republicans: 46% say No longer exist Democrats: 23% say No longer exist

    Americans are more likely to think we will have a

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    ygovernment-run health care system than a private one

    28

    GOVERNMENT VS. PRIVATE HEALTHCARE SYSTEM IN 10 YEARSIn 10 years, do you think the United States will have a national health care programsupplied to everyone by the government instead of a private health care system?

    38%

    27%

    36% National health ca

    Private health car

    Don't know

    ALL

    Most believe they will have less privacy from the

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    y p ygovernment in ten years and view that as bad for society

    29

    PRIVACY FROM U.S. GOVERNMENTIn ten years, do you expect to have more or less privacy from the U.S. government than you do today

    10% 77%

    More privacy Less privacy Don't kno

    ALL

    20% 58%

    Good thing Bad thing Don't know

    ALL

    GOOD OR BAD FOR SOCIETY?Overall, will that be a good thing for our society or a bad thing?

    Most think there will be more gun violence in the next ten

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    gyearsas well as more gun laws

    30

    GUN VIOLENCE IN TEN YEARSDo you think there will be more or less gun violence in America

    in ten years than there is now? (Showing All)

    58%

    18%

    23%

    More gun violence Less gun violence Don't know

    GUN CONTROL LAWS IN TEDo you think there will be more or fewer gun c

    United States in ten years? (Showi

    58%

    20%

    22%

    More gun laws Fewer gun

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    Imagining 2024:A new social issue consensus is emerging

    31

    Overwhelming majorities believe same-sex marriaged ij ill b l l i t t t i 10

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    32

    73%

    15%

    12%Yes

    No

    Don't know

    SAME SEX MARRIAGE IN 10 YEARSIn 10 years, do you think same sex marriage will be legal in the

    majority of U.S. states?

    and marijuana will be legal in most states in 10 years

    MARIJUANA LEGALIZATIONIn 10 years, do you think marijuana will be

    U.S. states?

    66%

    21%

    13%

    Millennials: 66% say Yes on same sex marriage

    57% say Yes on marijuana

    ALL ALL

    Most expect climate change to affect them more in 10

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    years

    33

    AFFECT OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN 10 YEARSIn 10 years, do you think the effects of climate change will affect you more or less than they do

    54% 20% 26%

    Will affect me more Will affect me less Don't know

    ALL

    75% 72% 63% 60% 50% 46% 43%Extreme

    temperaturesMore severe

    stormsSevere droughts Melting polar ice

    capsFood shortages Extinction of

    species, such aspolar bears

    Coastalcommunitieunder wate

    MOST OBVIOUS EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN 10 YEARSWhich of the effects of climate change will be more obvious in 10 years?

    A majority envision a weakening of the traditionalf il it i 10

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    34

    FEWER CHILDREN IN 10 YEARSDo you think Americans will be having fewer children 10 years

    from now than they are having today?

    family unit in 10 years

    54%

    27% 19%

    ALL

    Yes

    No

    Don't know

    21%

    54%

    25%

    ALL

    RAISING CHILDREN IN 10Do you think children in the United States wi

    worse in 10 years than they are

    Millennials: 39% say Yes Age 65+: 68% say Yes

    Two-thirds think a female president will be elected inthe next 10 years

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    35

    FUTURE U.S. PRESIDENTSTen years from now, do you think the United States will have elected the following?

    67%

    31% 30%1

    A female president A Hispanic president An African-Americanpresident

    A gay

    ALL (Sh

    the next 10 years

    Millennials: 39% say African-American Generation X: 38% say African-American

    Baby Boomers: 23% say African-American Age 65+: 22% say African-American

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    Imagining 2024:The United States of Technology is in our futu

    36

    A majority believe technology has made their livesbetter and will continue to do so in 10 years

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    better and will continue to do so in 10 years

    37

    63% 60%

    16% 16%21%

    Better Worse Don't Know

    TECHNOLOGYS IMPACT ON LIFESince 2004, have personal technology advancements made your life better or worse?

    In 10 years, do you think that advancements in technology, such as phones, computers, TVs and music pyour life better or worse than it is today?

    ALL

    IN 10 YEARSSINCE 2004

    Tech entrepreneurs are most likely to be consideredthe future leaders of our society

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    the future leaders of our society

    38

    44% 37% 34%23% 20% 16%

    Technology

    entrepreneurs

    Political figures Business

    leaders

    Celebrities Philanthropic

    leaders

    Athletes

    LEADERS IN SOCIETY IN 10 YEARSIn 10 years, which groups of people will be considered leaders in our society? Please choose any

    Age 65+: 53% say Tech entrepreneurs Millennials: 33% say Tech entrepreneurs

    Americans are equally likely to say they will prefercommunicating face-to-face and via technology in ten year

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    communicating face-to-face and via technology in ten year

    39

    63%

    41%29%

    44%

    9%

    Face-to-face Via technoogy Don't KnowALL

    PREFERRED METHOD OF COMMUNICATIONWhich method of communication do you prefer today?

    Ten years from now, do you think you will opt to communicate face-to-face or via technology wgiven the choice?

    TEN YEARS FROM NTODAY

    Millennials today 48% say Face-to-face

    38% say Via technology

    Millennials 10 years from 41% say Face-to-fa

    41% say Via techno

    Most foresee technology surrounding them in 10years

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    years

    40

    WIDESPREAD USAGE OF TECHNOLOGY IN 10 YEARSDo you think the following technology will be widely used in 10 years?

    59% 70% 60%

    23% 14% 20%18% 16%Robots Drones Medicine capable of m

    reporting changes i

    ALL

    Most Americans expect companies to collect moreinformation in ten years and think that will be a bad thing

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    information in ten years and think that will be a bad thing

    41

    INFORMATION COLLECTION BY PRIVATE COMPANY IN TEN YEARSIn ten years, do you expect private companies to collect more or less information about y

    than they do today?

    73% 12%

    More information Less information Don't k

    ALL

    18% 56% 2

    Good thing Bad thing Don't know

    ALL

    GOOD OR BAD FOR SOCIETY?

    Overall, will that be a good thing for our society or a bad thing?

    Age 65+: 83% say More information Millennials: 54% say More information

    Most do not say social media will make their livesbetter in the next decade

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    better in the next decade

    42

    41%36%

    24% 26%

    35% 3

    Better Worse Don't knowALL

    EFFECT OF SOCIAL MEDIA ON LIFEIn 2004, Facebook had just been created, and the term "social media" had not been coined. Has

    media made your life better or worse in the past ten years?

    Do you think that social media will make your life better or worse in the next decade?

    IN NEXT DECADEPAST 10 YEARS

    More than half are not convinced they will subscribe toa live TV service in 10 years

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    a live TV service in 10 years

    43

    45%

    26%

    29%

    Live TV se

    Exclusivelystreaming

    on-demand

    Don't know

    TV SERVICE IN TEN YEARSIn ten years, do you think you will have a live TV service (such as cable or satellite) or will you have canc

    service in favor of exclusively streaming TV shows on-demand (through companies such as Netflix a

    ALL

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    44

    Imagining 2024:The way we will live

    A majority expect to attend religious services morefrequently in 10 years

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    eque y 0 yea s

    45

    *Reduced base sizes

    19%

    34%

    38%

    8%

    ALL

    Frequently

    At leastsometimes

    Never

    Don't know

    5

    22%

    26%

    IF ATTEND

    CURRENT RELIGIOUS SERVICES ATTENDANCEDo you currently attend religious services frequently, at least

    sometimes or never?

    RELIGIOUS SERVICES ATTENDIF ATTEND: In ten years, do you exp

    services more frequently or less frequ

    A majority think marriage will be less common 10 yearsfrom now and divorce will be more common

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    46

    22%

    56%

    22%

    More common

    Less common

    Don't know

    MARRIAGE 10 YEARS FROM NOWDo you think marriage in the United States will be more or

    less common ten years from now than it is today?

    DIVORCE 10 YEARS FRDo you think divorce in the United St

    less common ten years from now

    15%

    22%More common

    Less common

    Don't know

    ALL

    A vast majority say they have a car now and think theyand their children will have a car in 10 years

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    y

    47

    77% 75% 72%

    23%14% 1511%

    Yes No Don't Know

    *Reduced base sizes

    ALL

    CAR OWNERSHIPDo you currently own a car?

    In ten years, do you think you will own a car?

    IF PARENT: In ten years, do you think all of your children of driving age will choose to own and d

    IN TEN YEARSCURRENTLY CHILDREN, IN

    Almost half think they will be driving less frequentlyin ten years

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    y

    48

    27%

    45%

    28%

    ALL

    Morefrequently

    Lessfrequently

    Don't know

    FREQUENCY OF DRIVING IN 10 YEARSDo you think you will drive more or less frequently in ten years than you do today?

    Millennials: 25% say Less frequently Generation X: 33% say Less frequently Baby Boomers: 52% say Less frequently Age 65+: 79% say Less frequently

    20 percent expect to buy an electric car in ten years, and 6percent expect gas prices to rise by more than $2 per gallo

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    g y g

    49

    20%

    69%

    47%

    14%

    33%

    Yes No Don't Know

    ALL

    ELECTRIC CAR IN 10 YEARSIn ten years, will you have bought an electric car?

    GAS PRICE INCREASTHAN $2 PER GALLON In ten years, do you think gas

    will have increased by mo

    Almost half think airline delays will be longer in 10years than they are today

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    50

    47%

    21%

    32%

    ALL

    Longer

    Shorter

    Don't know

    AIRLINE DELAYS IN 10 YEARSIn ten years, do you think airline delays will be longer or shorter

    than they are today?

    Half say they weighed less 10 years ago and nearlyhalf say they will weigh less in 10 years

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    51

    32%

    19%

    50% 49%

    17%

    More Less Don't know

    *Reduced base sizes

    ALL

    WEIGHT 10 YEARS AGO AND IN 10 YEARSTen years ago, did you weigh more or less than you do today?

    In ten years, do you expect to weigh more or less than you do today?

    IN 10 YEARSTEN YEARS AGO

    More say they will read printed books than printednewspapers or magazines 10 years from now

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    52

    36%

    50%46%

    37%

    18%

    Yes No Don't know

    BOOKSNEWSPAPERS/MAGAZINES

    READING PRINTED NEWSPAPERS/MAGAZINES AND BOOKS IN 10 YEATen years from now, do you think you will be reading any newspapers or magazines printed on

    Ten years from now, do you think you will be reading any books printed on paper?

    ALL ALL

    Football, Basketball, Baseball and Soccer are the sportsAmericans most expect to be more popular in 10 years

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    15% 22% 25% 24%

    32% 29% 34%39% 34%

    27%31% 30% 30%

    31% 35%34%

    33% 37%

    58%47% 46% 46%

    37% 36% 33%29% 29%

    Morepopular

    Don't know

    Lesspopular

    53

    POPULARITY OF SPORTS 10 YEARS FROM NOWTen years from now, do you think each of these sports will be more popular or less popular in

    United States than it is today? (Multiple Responses Permitted)

    ALL

    Americans are more likely to say they will go to themovies less instead of more in ten years

  • 5/23/2018 America Looks to 2024

    54/55

    54

    11%

    46%27%

    16%

    More frequently

    Same amount

    Less frequently

    Don't know

    MOVIE GOING IN 10 YEARSIn ten years, do you think you will go to the movies more frequently,

    less frequently or about the same amount as you do currently?

    ALL

    Most think The Simpsons will no longer be on the air inten years

  • 5/23/2018 America Looks to 2024

    55/55

    55

    36%

    64%

    Yes

    No

    THE SIMPSONS STILL ON TV 10 YEARS FROM NOW?Ten years from now, do you think The Simpsons will still be on TV?

    Millennials: 51% say Yes

    ALL