america looks to 2024
DESCRIPTION
Full results of 2014 The Atlantic/Aspen Institute SurveyTRANSCRIPT
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The Atlantic/Asp
Imagin
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America Looks to 2024: The A tlant ic/Aspen Institute SKey Findings
http://www.aspenideas.org/aif -
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What we did
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Penn Schoen Berland, working with Burson-Marsteller, conduconline interviews with the United States general population fro2014.
The overall margin of error is 2.19%
The data presented in this study are reflective of U.S. Census Bdemographic statistics in terms of gender, age, ethnicity, incomparty.
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What we learned
Two wars overseas. The Great Recession. George WBarack Obama. The Tea Party. Obamacare. Gay marria
surveillance.
Americans have experienced an incredible amount ofover the past 10 years. What weve learned is that th
bracing for more change in the next 10 years.
Normally certain about Americas economic strength a
in the world but uncertain on social issues, Americans future in which the countrys strength is in doubt but
unity on social issues.
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The key takeaways
Americans are highly uncertain about the countrys strength in 10 years.
The EconomyWe are moving from an Age of Possibility to an Age of Impossibilsaying the U.S. will be the Land of Opportunity in 10 years, and many envisioning a countharder to get ahead and harder to get a good education.
Our Role in the WorldAmerica as The Indispensable Nation will become A More Nation, predicting China, not the U.S., will lead the world in 10 years.
Politics and GovernmentThe future of our ability to govern ourselves is in doubt, wabout our ability to have effective government with regard to economic issues and key servhealthcare and education.
Meanwhile, there is increasing certainty on the shape of society.
The Social FabricA new social issue consensus is emerging, with debates around issex marriage, legalizing marijuana and climate changeon the way toward being resolved.
TechnologyThe United States of Technology is a bright spot in our future, envisionisurrounding us and improving our lives with tech entrepreneurs becoming the countrys rea
And Americans have interesting views on The Way We Will Live, envisioning greater connreligious institutions, fewer Americans entering the institution of marriage and less time spent o
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Imagining 2024:We are moving from an Age of Possibility to an Impossibility
5
65 f A i i d h U S
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65 percent of Americans are not convinced the U.S.will be on the right track in 10 years
28%
37%
35%Right Track
Don't Know
Wrong Direction
6
AMERICAS PATHDo you think the United States will be on the right track or headed in the wrong direction in 10
ALL
T thi d d t A i ill b id d th
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Two-thirds do not say America will be considered theland of opportunity in 10 years
7
LAND OF OPPORTUNITY IN 10 YEARSDo you think America will be considered the "land of opportunity" in 10 years?
YES NO DONT KNOW
33% 42% 24%
ALL
7 i 10 A i t t i th t i 10
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23%49%16%
21%61%
30%More likely to getahead
Don't Know
Less likely to getahead
7 in 10 Americans are not certain that, in 10 years,working hard and playing by the rules will bring success
8
IN 10 YEARS
HARD WORK AND PLAYING BY RULES IN 10 YEARSTen years ago, do you think that people who worked hard and played by the rules were more or less lik
In 10 years, do you think that people who work hard and play by the rules will be more or less likely
10 YEARS AGO
ALLALL
Hi i Af i A i i ifi tl lik l
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Hispanics, African-Americans are significantly more likelythan white Americans to foresee opportunity in 10 years
9
29%
45% 47%
White African-American Hispanic
AMERICA WILL BE LAND OF OPPORTUNITY
IN 10 YEARSDo you think America will be considered the "land of
opportunity" in 10 years? Showing Yes
24%
44%
White African-America
MORE LIKELY TO GET AHEAWORK/PLAYING BY RULES
In 10 years, do you think that peopleplay by the rules will be more or less
Showing More like
T o thirds sa income ineq alit ill gro o er the
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Two-thirds say income inequality will grow over thenext 10 years
10
WEALTH GAP IN 10 YEARSDo you think that the gap between the rich and poor will
grow or shrink in the United States over the next 10 years?
16%
18%
66%Grow
Don't Know
Shrink
ALL
Age 65+: 79% say Gro Millennials: 59% say G
Most do not say public schools or the performance of
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47%
22%
31%
Most do not say public schools or the performance ofAmerican students will get better in 10 years
11
MATH AND SCIENCE RANK IN 2024U.S. students are currently ranked 31stin math and 24thin sciencewhen compared to 65 other top industrial countries. Do you expect
the U.S. to rank higher or lower in these areas in 10 years?
PUBLIC SCHOOL SYSTEMTen years from now, do you expect the
school system to be better or worse
44%
24%
32% Higher
Don't Know
Lower
Millennials: 24% say Higher Age 65+: 41% say Higher
African-Americans: 44
ALL ALL
Americans tend to say private schools are the best
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Americans tend to say private schools are the bestoption for children and will be in 10 years as well
12
23%
17%
10% 11%
32% 33%
16% 18%19%
Public school Charter school Private school Home schooling
SCHOOL OPTIONS TODAY AND IN 10 YEARSIn your opinion, what do you think is the best option for school-aged children in America tod
In ten years, what do you think will be the best option for school-aged children in America
Income > $75k: 41% say Private Income
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29%
50%
20%
Most think college will be more important in the future, butonly 29 percent of parents say they will be able to afford it
13
IMPORTANCE OF COLLEGE DEGREE IN 10 YEARSIF PARENTS: Do you think it will be more important, less important
or no more or less important for your children to have a college
degree in 10 years than it was for you?
COLLEGE AFFORDABILITYIF PARENTS: By the time they go to c
you will be able to afford your children
ALL
56%
26% 7%11%
ALL
More Important No More or Less Important
Less Important Don't Know
Most parents foresee a tough job market for their
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Most parents foresee a tough job market for theirchildren in 10 years
14
EASE OF FINDING JOBS FOR CHILDREN IN 10 YEARS
IF PARENTS: In 10 years, will it be easy or difficult for your children to find good jobs?
9% 16% 38% 26%
Very easy Somewhat easy Somewhat difficult Very difficult Do
ALL
Despite a negative economic outlook 6 in 10 parents
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60%21%
18% Yes
No
Don't know
Despite a negative economic outlook, 6 in 10 parentsexpress optimism about their childrens well-being
15
CHILDREN BETTER OFF IN 10 YEARS THAN PARENTS WERE AT SAME AIF PARENTS: In 10 years, do you think your children will be better off than you were at their ag
ALL
Women have a more pessimistic view of their
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44%31%
18%
54%52% 45% 49%
72%
Better off financially On path to affordingretirement
Afford children'scollege education
Children better offthan parents were
Women Men
Women have a more pessimistic view of theirpersonal and household finances than men do
16
VIEWS BY GENDER: IN 10 YEARS
QUESTIONS SHOWN: In 10 years, do you expect to be better off or worse off financially than you are today? Showing Better off In 10 years, do you think you will be on a path to affording retirement? Showing Yes By the time they go to college, do you think you will be able to afford your childrens college education ? Showing Yes IF PARENT: In 10 years, do you think your children will be better off than you were at their age? Showing Yes In 10 years, do you think you will be able to afford to go on regular vacations? Showing Yes
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Imagining 2024:
America as The Indispensable Nation will become Dispensable Nation
17
Only 3 in 10 envision Americas global standing
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Only 3 in 10 envision America s global standingbeing on the rise in 10 years
18
AMERICAS GLOBAL STANDING IN 10 YEARSDo you think Americas global standing will be on the rise or in decline in 10 years?
30% 43% 26
On the Rise In Decline Don't Kno
ALL
Most think China not the U S will be a superpower
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68%
44% 43%
21%13% 9%
China U.S. Russia Japan UK Germany
Most think China not the U.S. will be a superpowerin 10 years
19
SUPERPOWERS IN 2024Which countries do you think will be considered superpowers in 10 years? Please name as many countrie
Income of >$75k: 79% say China
A majority believe China will be the worlds biggest
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A majority believe China will be the world s biggesteconomic force in 10 years
20
TOP GLOBAL ECONOMIC FORCE IN 10 YEARSWhich country do you think will be the worlds biggest economic force in 10 years?
20%
53%
U.S.
China
Income of >$75k: 63% say Income of
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Only 22 percent say there will be more peace aroundthe world in 10 years
21
22% 55% 23%
More peace Less peace Don't know
ALL
WORLD PEACE IN 10 YEARSIn 10 years, do you think there will be more or less peace around the world than there is tod
Millennials: 28% say More peace Age 65+: 15% say More peace
Democrats: 27% say More peace Republicans: 14% say More peace
Almost half foresee the U S having engaged in armed
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Almost half foresee the U.S. having engaged in armedconflict with Iran by 2024
22
ARMED CONFLICT WITH THE U.S. IN 10 YEARSIn the next 10 years, do you think the United States will have engaged in armed conflict with any of the fo
45% 31%
Iran Russia Ch
ALL(Showing yes)
Millennials: 44% say Russia, 25% say China Age 65+: 7% say Russia, 6% say China
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Imagining 2024:
The future of our ability to govern ourselves is in dee
23
Two-thirds are not convinced Americans will be more
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Two thirds are not convinced Americans will be moreunified in 10 years
24
Moreunified49%Less
unified
32%
Don'tknow19%
More unified
Less unified
Don't know
UNITY 10 YEARS AGODo you think Americans were more or less unified as a
people 10 years ago than we are today?
Moreunified33%
Lessunified41%
Don'tknow26%
UNITY IN 10 YEDo you think Americans will be m
people in 10 years than w
ALL ALL
A majority think government will be bigger in 10
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A majority think government will be bigger in 10years, but most do not say it will be more effective
25
EFFECTIVENESS OF GO10 YEARS
Do you think the American gove
or less effective in 10 years
35%
33%
32%ALL
18%
29%
54%Bigger
Don't Know
Smaller
SIZE OF GOVERNMENT IN 10 YEARSDo you think the size of government will be bigger or
smaller in 10 years than it is today?
ALL
Americans tend to foresee moving forward on energy and
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21%
16%
18%
15%
32%
34%
36
3
37%
35%
35%
34%
29%
21%
20%
18%
17%
Federal budget/national debt
Rising costs of college education
Traditional family values
Taxes
Health care
Defense and national security
Homeland security and terrorism
Energy independence
Alternative energy sources
g gysecurity, moving backward on taxes and the cost of college
26
PROGRESS/REGRESSION ON ISSUES IN THE NEXT 10 YEARSWhen it comes to addressing each of the following issues, do you think that the United States will have made pr
backward or will there have been no change in the next 10 years?
Top Four:Madeprogress
BottomFour:Gonebackward
In themiddle
ALL
Most believe Obamacare will either look very different
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yor cease to exist by 2024
27
STATUS OF OBAMACARE IN 10 YEARSWhat do you think the Affordable Care Act, also known as Obamacare, will be like in 10 yea
18%35% 32%
It will exist with only minor
changes
It will exist but with major
changes
It will no longer exist D
ALL
Republicans: 46% say No longer exist Democrats: 23% say No longer exist
Americans are more likely to think we will have a
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ygovernment-run health care system than a private one
28
GOVERNMENT VS. PRIVATE HEALTHCARE SYSTEM IN 10 YEARSIn 10 years, do you think the United States will have a national health care programsupplied to everyone by the government instead of a private health care system?
38%
27%
36% National health ca
Private health car
Don't know
ALL
Most believe they will have less privacy from the
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y p ygovernment in ten years and view that as bad for society
29
PRIVACY FROM U.S. GOVERNMENTIn ten years, do you expect to have more or less privacy from the U.S. government than you do today
10% 77%
More privacy Less privacy Don't kno
ALL
20% 58%
Good thing Bad thing Don't know
ALL
GOOD OR BAD FOR SOCIETY?Overall, will that be a good thing for our society or a bad thing?
Most think there will be more gun violence in the next ten
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gyearsas well as more gun laws
30
GUN VIOLENCE IN TEN YEARSDo you think there will be more or less gun violence in America
in ten years than there is now? (Showing All)
58%
18%
23%
More gun violence Less gun violence Don't know
GUN CONTROL LAWS IN TEDo you think there will be more or fewer gun c
United States in ten years? (Showi
58%
20%
22%
More gun laws Fewer gun
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Imagining 2024:A new social issue consensus is emerging
31
Overwhelming majorities believe same-sex marriaged ij ill b l l i t t t i 10
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32
73%
15%
12%Yes
No
Don't know
SAME SEX MARRIAGE IN 10 YEARSIn 10 years, do you think same sex marriage will be legal in the
majority of U.S. states?
and marijuana will be legal in most states in 10 years
MARIJUANA LEGALIZATIONIn 10 years, do you think marijuana will be
U.S. states?
66%
21%
13%
Millennials: 66% say Yes on same sex marriage
57% say Yes on marijuana
ALL ALL
Most expect climate change to affect them more in 10
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years
33
AFFECT OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN 10 YEARSIn 10 years, do you think the effects of climate change will affect you more or less than they do
54% 20% 26%
Will affect me more Will affect me less Don't know
ALL
75% 72% 63% 60% 50% 46% 43%Extreme
temperaturesMore severe
stormsSevere droughts Melting polar ice
capsFood shortages Extinction of
species, such aspolar bears
Coastalcommunitieunder wate
MOST OBVIOUS EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN 10 YEARSWhich of the effects of climate change will be more obvious in 10 years?
A majority envision a weakening of the traditionalf il it i 10
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34
FEWER CHILDREN IN 10 YEARSDo you think Americans will be having fewer children 10 years
from now than they are having today?
family unit in 10 years
54%
27% 19%
ALL
Yes
No
Don't know
21%
54%
25%
ALL
RAISING CHILDREN IN 10Do you think children in the United States wi
worse in 10 years than they are
Millennials: 39% say Yes Age 65+: 68% say Yes
Two-thirds think a female president will be elected inthe next 10 years
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35
FUTURE U.S. PRESIDENTSTen years from now, do you think the United States will have elected the following?
67%
31% 30%1
A female president A Hispanic president An African-Americanpresident
A gay
ALL (Sh
the next 10 years
Millennials: 39% say African-American Generation X: 38% say African-American
Baby Boomers: 23% say African-American Age 65+: 22% say African-American
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Imagining 2024:The United States of Technology is in our futu
36
A majority believe technology has made their livesbetter and will continue to do so in 10 years
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better and will continue to do so in 10 years
37
63% 60%
16% 16%21%
Better Worse Don't Know
TECHNOLOGYS IMPACT ON LIFESince 2004, have personal technology advancements made your life better or worse?
In 10 years, do you think that advancements in technology, such as phones, computers, TVs and music pyour life better or worse than it is today?
ALL
IN 10 YEARSSINCE 2004
Tech entrepreneurs are most likely to be consideredthe future leaders of our society
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the future leaders of our society
38
44% 37% 34%23% 20% 16%
Technology
entrepreneurs
Political figures Business
leaders
Celebrities Philanthropic
leaders
Athletes
LEADERS IN SOCIETY IN 10 YEARSIn 10 years, which groups of people will be considered leaders in our society? Please choose any
Age 65+: 53% say Tech entrepreneurs Millennials: 33% say Tech entrepreneurs
Americans are equally likely to say they will prefercommunicating face-to-face and via technology in ten year
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communicating face-to-face and via technology in ten year
39
63%
41%29%
44%
9%
Face-to-face Via technoogy Don't KnowALL
PREFERRED METHOD OF COMMUNICATIONWhich method of communication do you prefer today?
Ten years from now, do you think you will opt to communicate face-to-face or via technology wgiven the choice?
TEN YEARS FROM NTODAY
Millennials today 48% say Face-to-face
38% say Via technology
Millennials 10 years from 41% say Face-to-fa
41% say Via techno
Most foresee technology surrounding them in 10years
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years
40
WIDESPREAD USAGE OF TECHNOLOGY IN 10 YEARSDo you think the following technology will be widely used in 10 years?
59% 70% 60%
23% 14% 20%18% 16%Robots Drones Medicine capable of m
reporting changes i
ALL
Most Americans expect companies to collect moreinformation in ten years and think that will be a bad thing
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information in ten years and think that will be a bad thing
41
INFORMATION COLLECTION BY PRIVATE COMPANY IN TEN YEARSIn ten years, do you expect private companies to collect more or less information about y
than they do today?
73% 12%
More information Less information Don't k
ALL
18% 56% 2
Good thing Bad thing Don't know
ALL
GOOD OR BAD FOR SOCIETY?
Overall, will that be a good thing for our society or a bad thing?
Age 65+: 83% say More information Millennials: 54% say More information
Most do not say social media will make their livesbetter in the next decade
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better in the next decade
42
41%36%
24% 26%
35% 3
Better Worse Don't knowALL
EFFECT OF SOCIAL MEDIA ON LIFEIn 2004, Facebook had just been created, and the term "social media" had not been coined. Has
media made your life better or worse in the past ten years?
Do you think that social media will make your life better or worse in the next decade?
IN NEXT DECADEPAST 10 YEARS
More than half are not convinced they will subscribe toa live TV service in 10 years
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a live TV service in 10 years
43
45%
26%
29%
Live TV se
Exclusivelystreaming
on-demand
Don't know
TV SERVICE IN TEN YEARSIn ten years, do you think you will have a live TV service (such as cable or satellite) or will you have canc
service in favor of exclusively streaming TV shows on-demand (through companies such as Netflix a
ALL
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44
Imagining 2024:The way we will live
A majority expect to attend religious services morefrequently in 10 years
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eque y 0 yea s
45
*Reduced base sizes
19%
34%
38%
8%
ALL
Frequently
At leastsometimes
Never
Don't know
5
22%
26%
IF ATTEND
CURRENT RELIGIOUS SERVICES ATTENDANCEDo you currently attend religious services frequently, at least
sometimes or never?
RELIGIOUS SERVICES ATTENDIF ATTEND: In ten years, do you exp
services more frequently or less frequ
A majority think marriage will be less common 10 yearsfrom now and divorce will be more common
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46
22%
56%
22%
More common
Less common
Don't know
MARRIAGE 10 YEARS FROM NOWDo you think marriage in the United States will be more or
less common ten years from now than it is today?
DIVORCE 10 YEARS FRDo you think divorce in the United St
less common ten years from now
15%
22%More common
Less common
Don't know
ALL
A vast majority say they have a car now and think theyand their children will have a car in 10 years
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y
47
77% 75% 72%
23%14% 1511%
Yes No Don't Know
*Reduced base sizes
ALL
CAR OWNERSHIPDo you currently own a car?
In ten years, do you think you will own a car?
IF PARENT: In ten years, do you think all of your children of driving age will choose to own and d
IN TEN YEARSCURRENTLY CHILDREN, IN
Almost half think they will be driving less frequentlyin ten years
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y
48
27%
45%
28%
ALL
Morefrequently
Lessfrequently
Don't know
FREQUENCY OF DRIVING IN 10 YEARSDo you think you will drive more or less frequently in ten years than you do today?
Millennials: 25% say Less frequently Generation X: 33% say Less frequently Baby Boomers: 52% say Less frequently Age 65+: 79% say Less frequently
20 percent expect to buy an electric car in ten years, and 6percent expect gas prices to rise by more than $2 per gallo
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g y g
49
20%
69%
47%
14%
33%
Yes No Don't Know
ALL
ELECTRIC CAR IN 10 YEARSIn ten years, will you have bought an electric car?
GAS PRICE INCREASTHAN $2 PER GALLON In ten years, do you think gas
will have increased by mo
Almost half think airline delays will be longer in 10years than they are today
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50
47%
21%
32%
ALL
Longer
Shorter
Don't know
AIRLINE DELAYS IN 10 YEARSIn ten years, do you think airline delays will be longer or shorter
than they are today?
Half say they weighed less 10 years ago and nearlyhalf say they will weigh less in 10 years
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51
32%
19%
50% 49%
17%
More Less Don't know
*Reduced base sizes
ALL
WEIGHT 10 YEARS AGO AND IN 10 YEARSTen years ago, did you weigh more or less than you do today?
In ten years, do you expect to weigh more or less than you do today?
IN 10 YEARSTEN YEARS AGO
More say they will read printed books than printednewspapers or magazines 10 years from now
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52
36%
50%46%
37%
18%
Yes No Don't know
BOOKSNEWSPAPERS/MAGAZINES
READING PRINTED NEWSPAPERS/MAGAZINES AND BOOKS IN 10 YEATen years from now, do you think you will be reading any newspapers or magazines printed on
Ten years from now, do you think you will be reading any books printed on paper?
ALL ALL
Football, Basketball, Baseball and Soccer are the sportsAmericans most expect to be more popular in 10 years
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15% 22% 25% 24%
32% 29% 34%39% 34%
27%31% 30% 30%
31% 35%34%
33% 37%
58%47% 46% 46%
37% 36% 33%29% 29%
Morepopular
Don't know
Lesspopular
53
POPULARITY OF SPORTS 10 YEARS FROM NOWTen years from now, do you think each of these sports will be more popular or less popular in
United States than it is today? (Multiple Responses Permitted)
ALL
Americans are more likely to say they will go to themovies less instead of more in ten years
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54
11%
46%27%
16%
More frequently
Same amount
Less frequently
Don't know
MOVIE GOING IN 10 YEARSIn ten years, do you think you will go to the movies more frequently,
less frequently or about the same amount as you do currently?
ALL
Most think The Simpsons will no longer be on the air inten years
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55
36%
64%
Yes
No
THE SIMPSONS STILL ON TV 10 YEARS FROM NOW?Ten years from now, do you think The Simpsons will still be on TV?
Millennials: 51% say Yes
ALL