america merrill lynch conference may 2011€¦ · diversification - no asset greater than 15% of...
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Bank of America Merrill Lynch Conference ‐May 2011
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Cautionary Statement
Forward-Looking StatementsCertain information contained in this presentation, including any information as to future financial or operating performance and other statements that express management'sexpectations or estimates of future performance, constitute "forward-looking statements". All statements, other than statements of historical fact, are forward-looking statements. Thewords “anticipate”, “plans”, “estimate", "expect", "expects", "expected" and similar expressions identify forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements are necessarilybased upon a number of estimates and assumptions that, while considered reasonable by management, are inherently subject to significant business, economic and competitive
ncertainties and contingencies The Compan ca tions the reader that s ch for ard looking statements in ol e kno n and nkno n risks ncertainties and other factors that mauncertainties and contingencies. The Company cautions the reader that such forward-looking statements involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors that maycause actual financial results, performance or achievements of Franco-Nevada to be materially different from the Company's estimated future results, performance or achievementsexpressed or implied by those forward-looking statements and the forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance. These risks, uncertainties and other factorsinclude, but are not limited to: fluctuations in the prices of the primary commodities that drive the Company’s Net Revenue (gold, platinum group metals, copper, nickel, uranium, oiland gas); fluctuations in the value of the Canadian and Australian dollar, Mexican peso, and any other currency in which the Company generates revenue, relative to the US dollar;changes in national and local government legislation, including taxation policies; regulations and political or economic developments in any of the countries where the Companyholds interests in mineral and oil and gas properties; influence of macroeconomic developments; business opportunities that become available to, or are pursued by us; reduced
t d bt d it it l liti ti titl di t l t d t i t t f th ti d l t itti i f t t ti t h i l diffi ltiaccess to debt and equity capital; litigation; title disputes related to our interests or any of the properties; development, permitting, infrastructure operating or technical difficulties onany of the properties; rate and timing of production differences from resource estimates; risks and hazards associated with the business of development and mining on any of theproperties, including, but not limited to unusual or unexpected geological formations, cave-ins, flooding and other natural disasters or civil unrest; integration of acquired assetsfollowing completion of acquisition. The forward-looking statements contained in this presentation are based upon assumptions management believes to bereasonable, including, without limitation, the ongoing operation of the properties by the owners or operators of such properties in a manner consistent with past practice, theaccuracy of public statements and disclosures made by the owners or operators of such underlying properties, no material adverse change in the market price of thecommodities, and any other factors that cause actions, events or results to differ from those anticipated, estimated or intended. Accordingly, readers should not place undue relianceon forward-looking statements because of the inherent uncertainty. For additional information with respect to risks, uncertainties and assumptions, please also refer to the “RiskFactors” section of our most recent Annual Information Form filed with the Canadian securities regulatory authorities on www.sedar.com, as well as our annual and interimManagement’s Discussion and Analysis. The forward-looking statements herein are made as of the date of this presentation only and Franco-Nevada does not assume anyobligation to update or revise them to reflect new information, estimates or opinions, future events or results or otherwise, except as required by applicable law.Non-GAAP MeasuresRoyalty Revenue, Free Cash-Flow, EBITDA, Margin, Adjusted Net Income and Net Revenue are intended to provide additional information only and do not have any standardizedmeaning prescribed by GAAP and should not be considered in isolation or as a substitute for measures of performance prepared in accordance with GAAP Definitions andmeaning prescribed by GAAP and should not be considered in isolation or as a substitute for measures of performance prepared in accordance with GAAP. Definitions andreconciliations to GAAP can be found in our financial disclosures. These measures are not necessarily indicative of operating profit or cash flow from operations as determinedunder GAAP. Other companies may calculate these measures differently. The following notes are standardized for the attached presentation.
1 Royalty Revenue is defined by the Company as cash received or receivable from operating royalty and stream assets earned during the period.2 Free Cash Flow is defined by the Company as operating income plus depletion and depreciation, non-cash charges, and any impairment of investments and royalty and stream interests.3 Margin is defined as Free Cash Flow as a percentage of Royalty Revenue.4 Adjusted Net Income is defined by the Company as net income excluding impairment charges related to royalties working interests and investments; fair value changes for royalties
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4 Adjusted Net Income is defined by the Company as net income excluding impairment charges related to royalties, working interests and investments; fair value changes for royalties accounted for as derivative assets; foreign currency gains/losses; gains/losses on sale of investments; and the impact of taxes on all these items. See Reconciliation of Non-GAAP Measures in the Appendix for calculation.
5 Net Revenue is defined by the Company as cash received or receivable from operating royalty and stream assets, net of any: (i) cash outlays required to purchase stream production, (ii) state and provincial commodity taxes; and (iii) cash outlays associated with working interests.
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Dow vs Gold:
40
45
32
30
35
16
Logarithmic Scale
20
258
DOW
/Gol
d
10
154
Arithmetic Scale
0
5
1
2
3Financial vs hard assets
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Franco-Nevada
arej
o
A gold focused royalty & streaming company generating growing cash flow and dividends from a diversified portfolio of quality assets
Palm
aik
e
G h 49% expected 2011 growth
diversified portfolio of quality assets
Gol
d St
riGrowth 49% ‐ expected 2011 growthWorld class discoveries>$500M available capital
Tasi
ast
Yield 60% increase in monthly dividend1.3% yieldHighest dividend of gold peers
Sudb
ury
Low Risk Royalty modelDiversified portfolio90% margin*
4S90% margin*
* Note: Margin of Pre-tax Free Cash Flow to Royalty Revenue for 2010
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Royalty Model
Gold ETF Franco-Nevada Operators
Yield 0% ~1% 0-1%
Leverage to Gold Price 1 >1 >1Leverage to Gold Price 1 >1 >1
Exploration & Expansion Upside 0% 100% 100%
Exposure to Opex, Capex & 0% 0% 100%Environmental Costs (NSR) 0% 0% 100%
Franco-Nevada provides yield and more upside than a gold ETF with less risk than an operator
5
than a gold ETF with less risk than an operator
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Current and Future Assets
6*Does not include Franco-Nevada’s 135 oil & gas assets and 157 undeveloped oil & gas interests
Over 200 mineral royalties*
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Long Life Assets
Goldstrike Mining ~10 yearsStock pile processing ~20 years
Gold Quarry
Palmarejo
Stock pile processing ~20 years
New layback potential ~ 20 years
Guadalupe development > 10 years
Stillwater
Oil & Gas
Existing reserves > 25 years
Existing reserves 10 years Weyburn potential > 40 years
Falcondo
Tasiast
Weyburn potential > 40 years
Existing resources > 20 years
Expanding reserves > 20 yearsTasiast
Detour
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040+
Expanding reserves > 20 years
Expanding reserves > 15 years
7* Management expectation based on current public information provided by operators.** See Appendix for references & assumptions.
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040+
Most key asset lives > 20 years
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Quality Operators
GoldstrikeBald MountainHemlo
StillwaterEast Boulder
Gold QuarrySubika TasiastSubika Tasiast
MarigoldMusselwhite
MorrisonPodolskyMcCreedy West
8
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Royalty Revenue(1) Growth
70
80
$205.4 million = 44% growth year over year
50
60
30
40
($ m
illions)
Oil + Gas& O h
81% precious metals in
10
20
Gold
& Other
PGM
metals in 2010
0
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q420102008 2009
9
Diversified Portfolio with Growing Precious Metals
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Value Creation through Exploration
Tasiast (2% royalty)Potential 20 moz resource*Potential 1.5 moz/yr by 2015**Revenue begins 2011
Detour (2% royalty)>25 moz resource*Potential 660 koz/yr starting 2013**
Tasiast
Potential 660 koz/yr starting 2013Potential future expansion
Potential for >$60m/yr for >20 years*** Detour Lake
10
* Based on press release dated January 31, 2011 from Detour Gold and February 3, 2011 from Trade Winds Block A. Tasiast potential based on BMO Research (Feb 17, 2011)
** Tasiast potential based on Kinross scoping study. Detour potential based on February 2, 2011 BMO analyst projections.*** Calculated at full operation at Tasiast by 2015, and 660 koz/yr at Detour Lake, and assuming $1400/oz gold price.
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Organic Value Creation
Category Royalty* OperatorNew mines: • Duketon (2%)
• Lounge Lizard (2%)Peculiar Knob ( d ti t)
• Regis Resources• Kagara Ltd
WPG Resources• Peculiar Knob (production payment)• Red October (1.75%)
• WPG Resources• Saracen
Project restarts: • Falcondo (4.1% equity)• Holt (up to 10%)
• Xstrata• St Andrew Goldfields
Royalties reaching hurdles: • Subika (2%) • Newmont MiningRoyalties reaching hurdles: Subika (2%)• Ity (1 – 1.5%)
Newmont Mining• La Mancha
NPI’s pending payout: • Hemlo (50%)• Musselwhite (5%)
• Barrick Gold• Goldcorp
Permitting projects: • Prosperity (22% Au Stream) • Taseko• Rosemont (1.5%)• Perama Hill (2%)
• Augusta Resources• Eldorado Gold
Pre-feasibility stage: • Sandman (0.5 – 5%)• Garden Well (2%)• Goldfields (2%)
• Newmont/Fronteer Gold• Regis Resources• Brigus Gold( )
• Courageous Lake (1%)• Gurupi (1%)• HBJ Superpit (1.75%)• Agi Dagi (2%)• Kiziltepe (1.5 – 2.5%)
g• Seabridge Gold• Jaguar Mining• Alacer Gold• Alamos Gold• Ariana Resources
11* Note: Certain royalties do not cover the entire property or are rounded. See Annual Information Form for further details.** Risk adjusted undiscounted value reflecting total in-situ resources disclosed by operators on or before March 24, 2011.
Values are calculated at $1,400/oz Au, $4.25/lb Cu, $35/oz Ag and $15/lb Mo. No recovery rates are applied.
Risk adjusted potential value > $1 billion**
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GLW – Catalyst for Growth
Acquisition of Gold Wheaton:
~40%* revenue increase
Precious metals now >85% of revenue**
Greater gold leverage via stream structureEzulwini – South Africa
Adds further platinum and palladium exposure
Diversification - no asset greater than 15% of NAV**
MWS – South Africa
db d l k db
12* Est. 2011 revenue after March 14, 2011 closing of GLW transaction at $1500/oz Au, $1700/oz Pt, $700/oz Pd.** Broker Estimates
Morrison ‐ Sudbury Podolsky ‐ Sudbury McCreedy West‐ Sudbury
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GLW – Greater Gold and PGM leverage
NPV – By AssetNPV – By Commodity
Detour
Oth FNV
Stillwater8%
Gold Quarry
5%
5%
Oil & Gas/ Other
Other FNV Assets
23%
Sudbury
Tasiast8%
Gold
PGM19%
14%
Sudbury12%
Palmarejo12%
Gold Strike
Oil & Gas9%
MWS8%
67%
Contributes two of the top five assets
No asset greater than 15% by value
Precious metal contribution now >85%
PGM division larger than oil & gas
Strike10%
13
g y
Source: Broker consensus estimates
g & g
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GLW – Increased Diversification
Revenue – By Geography Revenue – By Asset TypeWorking Interest
Australia3% South
Africa 11%
Revenue
Interest 3%
US35%Mexico
17%
Revenue Based37%
Stream46%
Canada34%
Profit Based 14%
86% North America revenues 60% from leveraged profit & stream assets
14Note: Pro-forma revenue for 2010 including contribution from GLW assets.
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2011 Outlook
9 months of Sudbury, MWS & Ezulwini
Higher Au PGM and oil pricesHigher Au, PGM and oil prices
Higher Palmarejo production
Smaller asset startups & expansions
Falcondo re-start
Temporarily lower on Goldstrike
L i i t G ld Q
$325m to $350m
Lower minimum at Gold Quarry
2011 GAAP Revenue guidance
$227m
135,000 to 155,000 stream ounces
2010 GAAP Revenue on same basis
Net stream ounces
15* Note: Revenue for 2011 is calculated as gross revenue and includes gross stream revenue before payments of $400/oz (See MD&A for
further details). Revenue calculated using consensus commodity prices for 2011; $1,400/oz Au, $1,750/oz Pt, $575/oz Pt and $80/bbl oil.
stream ounces
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GAAP Revenue Outlook ($1,400/oz Au)
450
500Includes:• Full year GLW assetsT i t & D t
350
400
• Tasiast & Detour expansions
• Organic growth risk adjusted
Excludes:
72%
200
250
300
$ M
illio
ns)
Excludes:• Prosperity stream until permitted49%
100
150
200( 48%
0
50
2008A 2009A 2010A 2011E* 2012‐2015**
16* Represents mid-range of 2011 revenue guidance at consensus prices.** Potential Compounded Annual Growth Rate 2008-2015 based on potential incremental revenue to 2015. Incremental revenue
calculation based on operator guidance and consensus prices, including $1,400/oz Au.
CAGR of 18% over 8 years**
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Continued Financial Strength
Capital Resources March 24, 2011P FPro Forma(US Millions)
Working Capital $260
Marketable Securities $70
Available Credit Facility $175
T l A il bl C i l $505Total Available Capital $505
$505M in available capital at March 24, 2011
$250M per year in Free Cash Flow(2)
17Note: Cash flow estimate based on consensus commodity prices ($1,400 Au, $1,750 Pt, $575 Pd, $80 Oil) and operator’s production guidance.
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Dividend
60% increase in monthly dividend
US$0.04 per share starting with July 2011 dividend
1 3% yield on current share price1.3% yield on current share price
3.2% yield on cost for our IPO shareholders
F N d id f h hi h i ldFranco-Nevada provides one of the highest yields in the gold sector to institutional investors
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Franco-Nevada
arej
oGrowth and yield at lower risk
49% Expected Revenue Growth in 2011
World Class Discoveries (Tasiast Detour)
Palm
aik
e
World Class Discoveries (Tasiast, Detour)
>$500m Capital for Growth
%
Gol
d St
ri
60% Dividend Increase in 2011
Diversified & Secure Portfolio Tasi
ast
90% margins*
Sudb
ury
Why own an ETF?
19
S
* Note: Margin of Pre-tax Free Cash Flow to Royalty Revenue for 2010.
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Appendices
Bald Mountain ‐ BarrickGoldstrike ‐ Barrick East Boulder ‐ StillwaterWeyburn ‐ Cenovus
Cerro San Pedro ‐ New Gold Mesquite – New GoldPalmarejo ‐ Coeur
Marigold GoldcorpRobinson – Quadra FNX Tasiast ‐ Kinross
Marigold ‐ Goldcorp
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Marigold ‐ Goldcorp
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Asset Life Assumptions & References
Goldstrike ‐ Barrick 2009 Annual Report. December 2009 reserve of 12.2 moz and 2009 production of 1.36 moz implies mine life of 9 years. Barrick 2009 Annual report states Barrick expects to fully process ore in stockpiles by 2035. (www.barrick.com)
Gold Quarry – Newmont Investor Day Presentation from May 27, 2010. Gold Quarry West Wall Layback has potential to add 10 years of additional mine life beginning in 2019. (www.newmont.com)
Palmarejo ‐ Coeur d’Alene Mines, Palmarejo Technical Report, February 2011. States mine life of 8 years from 2011. Assumption of 3 yrs of additional mine life based on 4.0 M tonne M&I resource mined at 1.4 M tonnes per year. ( )(www.coeur.com)
Stillwater – Stillwater press release dating February 25, 2010. Reserve of 20.6 moz at December 31, 2009 and 2009 production rate of 530 koz. Implies mine life >25 yrs. (www.stillwatermining.com)
Oil & Gas – Oil & Gas Reserve Report by GLJ Petroleum Consultants Ltd.. (www.franco‐nevada.com).
Falcondo – Xstrata Nickel October 2009 reports a reserve of 74.2 Mt grading 1.29% Ni. Press release from Xstrata Nickel dated October 12, 2010 indicates capacity at 50% of approximately 14,000 tonnes of Ni per annum or implied full capacity of 28,000 tonnes of Ni per annum. Implies >20 yr mine life.
Tasiast – September 22, 2010 Denver Gold Forum Presentation by Kinross. Estimate 425m tonnes of ore and processing of p , y p g60ktpd. Implies mine life of +19 years. (www.kinross.com)
Detour ‐May 25, 2010 Feasibility Study for Detour Lake describes16 year mine plan. (www.detourgold.com).
Franco‐Nevada does not operate or explore but relies on others. Because it is not an operator, it must rely on decisions made by others decisions on which it has little or no influence It must also assume that public disclosure by its operators
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made by others, decisions on which it has little or no influence. It must also assume that public disclosure by its operatorsis accurate and true. Information contained herein is based on information made available by these operators.
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Franco-Nevada Directors & Management
DirectorsPierre Lassonde Director, Chairman
David Harquail Director, President & CEO
Derek Evans(1) Director
Graham Farquharson(2) Director
Louis Gignac(1) Directorg
Randall Oliphant(1) Director
Hon. David R. Peterson(2) Director
ManagementDavid Harquail President & CEO
Sandip Rana Chief Financial Officer
Jacqueline Jones Chief Legal Officer & Corporate Secretary
Geoff Waterman Chief Operating Officer
Paul Brink SVP, Business Development
Steve Alfers Chief of U S Operations
22(1) Member of the Audit and Risk Committee(2) Member of the Compensation and Corporate Governance Committee
Steve Alfers Chief of U.S. Operations
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Franco-Nevada Corporation
Capital Structure
Shares Outstanding 126.3m
2012 Warrants (C$32 exercise price) 5.75m
Analyst CoverageBMO Capital Markets David Haughton
BOA/Merrill Lynch Mike Jalonen
2013 Warrants(1) (C$64.27 exercise price) 4.05m
2014 Warrants(1) (C$32.14 exercise price) 2.08m
2017 Warrants (C$75 exercise price) 5.75m
yCIBC Capital Markets Cosmos Chiu
Credit Suisse Anita Soni
GMP Securities Craig West
Paradigm Capital Don MacLeanOptions & other 3.53m
147.46m
Share Price Range (2) C$38.38-C$27.75
Paradigm Capital Don MacLean
RBC Capital Markets Stephen Walker
Scotia Capital David Christie
TD Securities Greg Barnes
UBS Securities Brian MacArthurC$27.75
Market Capitalization $4.7B
Working Capital + Marketable Investments $330m
Available Credit Facilities $175m
UBS Securities Brian MacArthur
Wellington West Paolo Lostritto
Major ShareholdersFidelity USAvailable Credit Facilities $175m
Debt or Hedges Nil
Annual Dividends (Indicative)(3) $61m
Management Ownership 4.6%
Fidelity US
Invesco Trimark Canada
T. Rowe Price US
Blackrock Europe
23
(6.2% diluted) Oppenheimer US
(1) Warrants now of Franco-Nevada GLW Holdings Corp. that upon exercise will entitle the holder thereof, at its election, to receive either 0.1556 of a Franco-Nevada common share or C$5.20 in cash, per warrant. Former $10 GLW warrants each still exercisable at $10/warrant. To acquire one whole FNV share, approximately 6.43 warrants need to be exercised (i.e. $64.27/FNV share). Former $5 GLW warrants each still exercisable at $5/warrant. To acquire one whole FNV share, approximately 6.43 warrants need to be exercised (i.e. $32.14/FNV share).
(2) Previous 52 weeks.(3) Year starting July 1. 2011 with current shares outstanding.