America’s Energy Infrastructure and Renewable Future

Presenters:

Bill Bradford, P.E. Energy, Sustainability & Resiliency PrincipalHanson Professional Services Inc.

Calvin Quinn, P.E., Senior Engineer IAtkins

A definition of energy

Story of energy scale

=30 Minutes per

day per year

Energy

• noun, plural en· er· gies.

• the capacity for vigorous

activity; available power: “I

eat chocolate to get quick

energy.”

• an adequate or abundant

amount of such power: “I

seem to have no energy

these days.”

• Chinese Medicine: “Qi”

• Indian Medicine: “Prana”

• Texas Medicine: “Oil”

Where we are now – generation in the US

Where we are now – renewable generation in the US

Where we are now – generation Global

Where we are now – Consumption Global

Central finding of the Quadrennial Energy Review: Second Installment from US DOE Office of Policy

• Improving the economy

• Protecting the environment

• Increasing national security.

The Grid…101

• https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nbPmsBmo03Y&feature=youtu.be

Challenges of Existing Energy Supply

• Environmental

• Urbanization

• Climate

Change

Challenges of Existing Energy Supply

Chart – Carbon Emissions of existing energy generation methods

(http://www.ipcc-wg3.de/report/IPCC_SRREN_Ch09.pdf)

Challenges of Existing Energy Supply

100+ mph windsSource: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2695266/Wind-turbine-fire-risk-Number-

catch-alight-year-ten-times-higher-industry-admits.html

Nuclear Meltdown - Japanese Sendai Earthquake/Tsunami

9.0 magnitude on the Richter scale(http://www.financetwitter.com/2011/03/japan-tsunami-greatest-problem-nuclear-meltdown.html)

• Hazardous Weather effect on power generation• Increased with Climate Change

• Natural Disasters

Condition of America’s current energy infrastructure

Long-term challenges for the power grid

• Increased user demand -

Urbanization

• Aging electrical power

infrastructure

• Increased reliance on automated

control systems that are

susceptible to cyber attack

• The attractiveness of electrical

power infrastructure for terrorist

attacks

• Long lead times for replacing

key electrical power equipment

Emerging risks driving change -

• Technological

obsolescence

• Changing weather

patterns and climate

issues

Emerging risks driving change

• Man-made threats

• Cybersecurity threats

Models for the future of the grid

• Open access –• Extension of the current model

• Enables users to receive affordable energy

• Systems remain very decentralized

• Does little to advance the scalability and growth of the micro-grid market

• Can result in a “race to the bottom” in terms of security for the system as a whole

• Well suited for optimizing costs and routine reliability

Models for the future of the grid• Closed loop –

• Ensures critical systems are closed off from the overall loop

• Places intermediary “man in the loop” command and control function to separate operations and management of the system

• Creates a buffer for the prevalent risks created by the Open Access model

• Trade-off is the system is more secure for all end-users and this security benefit is present for day-to-day operations and in terms of resilience

• Inefficiency of having greater access control through a centralized authority must be contrasted against the level of security and operational risks that the industry faces

Models for the future of the grid

• Islands and Oceans –• Hybrid combination of the other two models

• Maintains current mandate to provide power to anyone who wants it at relatively low cost by joining the main system while also recognizing the need for additional protections for some users.

• Most practical implication of this approach focus on building out a series of larger-scale microgrids.

• Could include ability for micro-grid users to connect to the main grid, and provide the grid as a backup power source

• Reduces growth demand on the systems overall, and enhances resilience for the subset of the end-user base that deems security and assured operations to be a priority over cost.

Grid Innovation – Super Grid

• Long distance transmission• Wind Power from North Dakota• Solar Power from Arizona• Tidal Power from Pacific Ocean

• National and/or global cooperation and agreement

• This can promote usage of renewables

Grid Innovation – Smart Grid

• Current grid overbuilt to meet instantaneous needs of consumers

• Smaller energy production using information technology to manager variability.

Grid Innovation – Localized Grid

• Small, advanced electric grids with features to ensure reliable delivery

• Self-sufficient, typically serves a discrete geographic footprint

• Some contain energy storage (typically batteries)

• Ability to “island” from the central grid during an outage

• Line of defense in community crisis

• Combined Heat and Power applicable

• Colleges and Universities

Grid Innovation – Hybrid Grid

• Efficiencies of the local grid• Security of the supergrid

Credit: U.S. Department of Energy

External Grid

Energy Innovation - Solar

• Solar Power• Solar incentives, residential uses, large scale

uses.

• Downside- requires sun to be shining

• Potential large scale transmission from

deserts

• Been in use since Egyptian times –

Egyptians built houses in a way that sun

could heat their homes

(https://solarmaxtechnology.wordpress.com/2012/11/13/the-history-of-solar-power-solar-energy-in-ancient-times/)

Energy Innovation – Hydrogen

• Hydrogen Power

• Fuel cells have been used for many years, were used

for Apollo missions in the 1960s.

• Hydrogen and oxygen are combined in several

chemical reactions for power.

• Requires source of Hydrogen

• Emission is water

https://airandspace.si.edu/collection-objects/fuel-

cell-apollo-4

Energy Innovation – Energy Storage

• Energy Storage

• Ways to store excess energy.

When sun is shining, wind is

blowing, we do not have most

efficient ways of storage

• Pumped Hydrogen

• Split H20 and store hydrogen

• Home storage

Conclusions

• Worldwide generation and consumption continues to grow

• Natural gas and renewables are a growing share of the current energy mix

• Our existing electrical infrastructure is at risk from multiple threats

• Although we continue to plan…our existing infrastructure continues to fall behind.

• However, long-term solutions exist for our Infrastructure & Renewable Energy Future

• It only takes money and working together to get where we need to be!

Conclusions

• Worldwide generation and consumption continues to grow

• Natural gas and renewables are a growing share of the current energy mix

• Our existing electrical infrastructure is at risk from multiple threats

• Although we continue to plan…our existing infrastructure continues to fall behind.

• However, long-term solutions exist for our Infrastructure & Renewable Energy Future

• It only takes money and working together to get where we need to be!

Engineers…behind the everyday and the extraordinary!

Questions???

Recommended reading & resources• Varun Sivaram: Taming the Sun – Innovations to Harness Solar Energy and Power

the Planet• Gretchen Bakke: The Grid – The Fraying Wires Between Americans and Our

Energy Future• US Energy Information Agency: US Energy Facts – Explained• US Energy Information Administration: Short-Term Energy Outlook, July 9, 2019• Energy Manager Today – Report: Energy Demand Skyrockets, CO2 Emissions Hit

Record• Electrek – Renewable energy to outpace coal for first time ever in US, April 30,

2019• US DOE – Quadrennial Energy Installment, Second Installment, January 2017• ASCE – 2017 Infrastructure Report Card• ASCE – Failure to Act , Closing the Infrastructure Investment Gap for America’s

Economic Future, 2017• Lexington Institute – Future of the Power Grid Series, Challenges and

Requirements for Tomorrow’s Electrical Grid, June 2016

Where we are now – Demand (from Energy Manager Today-March 26,2019)• Energy demand grew 2.3% last year, fastest pace this decade

• 45% of the increase accommodated by natural gas

• 70% of the growth accommodated by fossil fuels

• Wind and solar grew at double digits / solar by 31%

• Global electricity demand grew by 4% in 2018

• Energy intensity improved by 1.3% last year, just half the rate of the period 2014-

2016. This third consecutive slowdown was the result of weaker energy efficiency

policy implementation and strong demand growth in more energy intensive

economies

• IEA says almost 1/5 of the increase in global energy demand came from higher

demand for heating and cooling as average winter and summer temperatures in some

regions approached or exceeded historical records

• Together, China, the US and India accounted for nearly 70% of the rise in energy

demand around the world

Where we are now – Supply (from Energy Manager Today-March 26,2019)• Renewables were a major contributor to this power generation

expansion, accounting for nearly ½ of electricity demand growth. China remains the leader in renewables, both for wind and solar, followed by Europe and the US

• Global gas demand expanded at its fastest rate since 2010, with year-on-year growth of 4.6%, the 2nd consecutive year of strong growth, driven by higher demand and substitution from coal

• Oil demand grew 1.3% worldwide, with the US again leading the global increase for the first time in 20 years thanks to a strong expansion in petrochemicals

• Global coal consumption rose 0.7%, with increases seen only in Asia, particularly in China, India and a few countries in South and SE Asia

• Nuclear grew by 3.3% in 2018, with global generation reaching pre-Fukushima levels, mainly as a result of new additions in China and the restart of four reactors in japan. Worldwide, nuclear plants met 9% of the increase in electricity demand.