american pulse election 2012 homestretch report

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American Pulse™

Election 2012 Homestretch ReportOctober-2012

3,615 respondents participated in the 2nd October American Pulse conducted 10/23-10/29/2012.

Margin of error is +/- 1.6%.

© 2012, Prosper®

© 2012, Prosper®

Domestic Issues

Confidence in Government’s Economic Policy - Economy

© 2012, Prosper®

While confidence in the government’s economic policy to get the economy back on track has increased since the summer months, still just more than a third of those likely to vote in the next week are confident/very confident.

Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-1220%

24%

28%

32%

36%

40%

25.9%

35.3%

Confident/Very Confident Government’s Economic Policy Will Get the Economy Back on Track

(Likely Voters)

Source: American Pulse™ Survey, January-October 2012

Confidence in Government’s Economic Policy - Employment

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Recent drops in the unemployment rate seem to have improved voter confidence in the government’s economic policy to help lower unemployment.

Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-120%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

7.5

7.6

7.7

7.8

7.9

8.0

8.1

8.2

8.3

8.4

24.4%

34.1%8.3

7.8

Confident/Very Confident Government’s Economic Policy Will Help Lower Unemployment

(Likely Voters)

Likely Voters

Unemployment Rate (Civilian)

Sources: American Pulse™ Survey, January-October 2012,U.S. Department of Labor: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Despite Improving Confidence, Most Say Economy Heading in Wrong Direction

© 2012, Prosper®

Although confidence in economic policies has picked up, the majority of Likely Voters don’t think the economy is heading in the right direction. Nearly half say the current state of the economy is poor while another 22.6% say it’s terrible.

No52.0%

Neutral13.7%

Yes34.4%

Do you think the economy is heading in the right direction? (Likely Voters)

Source: American Pulse™ Survey, October 2012 #2, N=3615

How would you rate the overall state of the

economy?(Likely Voters)

Excellent: 3.0%Good: 25.5%Poor: 48.8%

Terrible: 22.6%

Voters Don’t Appear Pleased with Obama’s Performance Regarding the Economy

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While one-third of Likely Voters say President Obama has done a “Good” job with the economy in the past four years, more Voters are likely to say his job was “Poor” or “Terrible.” Blue Collar Workers were most likely to say “Terrible.”


Excellent Good Poor Terrible0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

8.1%

33.2%

21.5%

37.2%

How would you rate President Obama for his performance in the fol-lowing areas over the past 4 years?: Economy

Likely Voters

Likely Catholic Voters

Likely Blue Collar Voters

Likely Walmart Mom Voters

Majority Know Someone Utilizing Government Assistance

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Do you know anyone who uses…: (YES)

Likely Voters




Unemployment benefits 53.9% 55.9% 57.7% 57.7%

Food stamps (SNAP, WIC, etc.) 55.1% 52.8% 61.2% 69.0%

Medicare 82.1% 86.4% 75.5% 80.5%

Medicaid 61.0% 62.7% 66.7% 71.7%

Social Security benefits 87.0% 90.2% 85.5% 87.0%

Disability benefits 63.4% 62.3% 60.4% 70.0%

The majority of Likely Voters know at least one person who receives government assistance programs such as unemployment or disability benefits, food stamps, Medicare or Medicaid. More Walmart Moms and Catholics appear to know citizens receiving these benefits, a likely influence on the upcoming election.


Voters Divided on National Security

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Safer34.0%

No chang

e29.1%

Less safe36.9%

Overall, how do you think the safety of the United States has changed from 4

years ago (2008)?(Likely Voters)

Like

ly Vot

ers

Like

ly Cat

holic

Vot

ers

Like

ly Blu

e Col

lar V

oter

s

Like

ly W

alm

art M

om V

oter

s0%

20%

40%

60%Barack Obama Mitt Romney

Which presidential candidate would you trust most to handle a terrorist situation such as September 11th?

(Likely Voters)

Likely Voters are divided when it comes to the safety of the United States—while over 1 in 3 say the country is safer, 36.9% also claim the country is less safe. In addition, voter groups are split on which candidate would be best at handling a terrorist attack:

Obama has an edge with the Walmart Moms while Blue Collar Workers favor Romney.


Voters Say Different Races and Ethnic Groups Have Moved Farther Apart in the Past Four Years

© 2012, Prosper®

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

26.1% 26.1%32.9%

26.0%

28.5% 31.6%25.9%

26.5%

29.3% 27.4% 27.7%28.6%

13.0% 12.9% 12.2%14.6%

3.1% 2.1% 1.3% 4.3%

Do you think the racial/ethnic divide in the United States has grown or shrunk in the past 4 years? (Likely Voters)

5 – Shrunk a lot

4 – Shrunk somewhat

3 – Hasn’t changed

2 – Grown somewhat

1 – Grown a lot

More Likely Voters feel as if the racial/ethnic divide in the United States has grown in the past 4 years. Fewer than 1 in 5 of each segment say the divide has shrunk somewhat or a lot.


Election Uncertainty More Likely to Impact Spending

© 2012, Prosper®

The uncertainty of the election hasn’t impacted my spending at all

Other

Increasing savings

Delaying a major purchase (car, TV)

Paying down debt

Doing more comparative shopping

Reducing dining out

Decreasing overall spending

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%

37.6%

2.1%

17.5%

25.0%

25.1%

26.7%

28.1%

39.9%

How has the uncertainty of the 2012 Presidential Election impacted your spending?

(Likely Voters)

The uncertainty of the election hasn’t impacted my life decisions

Delaying getting married

Other

Delaying starting/adding to family

Delaying retirement saving

Delaying further education

Delaying buying a house

Delaying paying off debt

Delaying changing jobs

Delaying retirement

Delaying moving

0.0% 20.0% 40.0% 60.0%

56.3%4.0%

4.1%

4.4%

8.3%

8.6%

9.0%

9.1%

9.6%

10.0%

10.5%

How has the uncertainty of the 2012 Presidential Election impacted your life decisions?

(Likely Voters)

Most life decisions are not affected by the unknown election outcome, but some Likely Voters say they are delaying moving or retiring. Also, decreasing spending is popular in the weeks leading up to the election.


1 in 4 Waiting Until After Election to Decide Holiday Budget

© 2012, Prosper®

The uncertainty of the election won’t impact my holiday plans at all

Other

Decide whether or not to celebrate the holidays

Start shopping

Decide travel arrangements/get-together details

Decide how much I will donate to charity (or not to donate at all)

Decide who I am purchasing gifts for

Decide my overall budget

0.0% 10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%50.0%60.0%

54.8%

1.5%

7.9%

12.6%

13.0%

13.5%

14.6%

26.8%

How will the uncertainty of the 2012 Presidential Election impact your holiday plans? Are you waiting until after the election to do any of the following? (Likely Voters)

Key Likely Voter Segments:

(Waiting until after the election to…)

Decide my overall budgetBlue Collar: 39.4%Catholics: 27.0%WMT Moms: 21.8%

Decide who to purchase forBlue Collar: 22.3%Catholics: 18.8%WMT Moms: 12.7%


Blue Collar workers appear to be more influenced by the uncertainty of the election when it comes to deciding holiday budgets and who will receive gifts.

© 2012, Prosper®

International Issues

Romney More Likely to Boost Confidence in Foreign Policy

© 2012, Prosper®

Inc

rea

se

Sta

y t

he

Sa

me

De

cre

as

e

Inc

rea

se

Sta

y t

he

Sa

me

De

cre

as

e

Obama Romney

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

26.0%

35.5%38.5% 37.8%

23.2%

39.0%

If _______ is elected President in November, would your confidence in foreign policy… (Likely Voters)


(Increase Confidence)

Blue Collar: Romney (40.8%)

Catholics: Romney (38.8%)

WMT Moms: Romney (35.5%)

More Likely Voters would experience an increase in confidence in foreign policy if Mitt Romney is elected as President in November.


Voters Divided on Who to Trust with Foreign Affairs

© 2012, Prosper®

Likely Catholic and Blue Collar Voters are more likely to trust Romney with foreign affairs; Walmart Moms place their trust in the incumbent.

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Which presidential candidate would you trust most to handle foreign affairs in general?

(Likely Voters)

Barack ObamaMitt Romney


Strengthening the United States as a World Power

© 2012, Prosper®

Most Likely Voters agree that the US is losing power in the world—and they believe Romney would be the best candidate to strengthen the country.

26.9%

32.4%

25.0%

11.9%

3.7%

Do you think the US is gaining or losing power in the world?

(Likely Voters)

1 - Losing a lot of power2 - Losing some power3 - Not gaining or losing power4 - Gaining some power5 - Gaining a lot of power

Likely Voters Likely Catholic Voters



0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Which presidential candidate do you think would be better at strengthening the United States as a world

power? (Likely Voters)

Barack Obama Mitt Romney


Top Countries of Concern

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Iran, Afghanistan and Pakistan are the top countries Likely Voters are worried about. North Korea, Iraq and China follow.

How concerned are you about the relationship between the United States and each of the following countries? (Somewhat/Very Concerned) Top 8

Likely Voters




Iran 83.7% 85.8% 76.9% 84.3%

Afghanistan 76.7% 80.0% 73.3% 78.8%

Pakistan 75.7% 79.5% 71.6% 70.9%

North Korea 75.0% 78.1% 66.5% 74.5%

Iraq 73.2% 76.7% 73.2% 80.0%

China 70.6% 71.5% 61.6% 66.7%

Libya 70.5% 74.4% 69.4% 71.4%

Egypt 59.5% 63.4% 49.0% 56.1%


© 2012, Prosper®

Election 2012

Majority Are Excited to Vote

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Are you excited to vote in the 2012 Presidential Election? (Likely Voters)

Likely Voters

Likely Catholic

Likely Blue Collar

Likely Walmart

Mom

1 – Not at All Excited 7.0% 7.0% 6.3% 8.6%

2 – Not Very Excited 7.4% 5.2% 7.9% 7.0%

3 – Neutral 15.7% 18.3% 20.5% 15.8%

4 – Somewhat Excited 20.9% 18.3% 19.8% 16.5%

5 – Very Excited 49.0% 51.2% 45.5% 52.1%

Somewhat/Very Excited 69.9% 69.5% 65.3% 68.6%

7 in 10 Likely Voters are pumped to have their voices heard at the polls. Blue Collar Voters, however, are a little less excited.

Who do Likely Voters Side With on Major Issues?

© 2012, Prosper®

Likely Voters tend to lean to the right when it comes to the Top 5 voting issues for Election 2012.

President Obama’s strongest issue among these appears to be Healthcare, as more Likely Voters side entirely or more with Obama on this issue compared to others. However, Romney is still on top in this category.

Role of Government

Taxes

Healthcare

Economic Recovery

Job Creation

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Entirely with Obama More with Obama than Romney

Neither More with Romney than Obama

Entirely with Romney


Who do Likely Voters Side With on Major Issues?

© 2012, Prosper®

While Likely Catholic and Blue Collar Voters are more likely to side with Romney than Obama on key issues, Walmart Moms differ. They lean towards the left when it comes to taxes and healthcare.

WMT Moms Side with…

Barack Obama for…Taxes: 45.7%

Healthcare: 45.9%

Mitt Romney for…Role of government:

43.7%Economic Recovery:

44.3%Job Creation: 43.3%

CatholicsSide with…


52.6%Taxes: 50.2%

Healthcare: 50.0%Economic Recovery:


Blue Collar WorkersSide with…


45.6%Taxes: 47.9%

Healthcare: 48.5%Economic Recovery:



Does Obama Deserve Reelection?

© 2012, Prosper®


While Likely Voters are more split, Blue Collar Workers and Catholics appear more sure that President Obama does not deserve another term.

Likely Walmart Mom

Likely Blue Collar

Likely Catholic

Likely Voters

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

To what extent do you agree with the following statement?: Pres-ident Obama deserves reelection.

Somewhat/Strongly Agree Neither agree nor disagree Somewhat/Strongly Disagree

Jobs & Government Assistance are Voting Concerns for Many

© 2012, Prosper®

Many voters will consider their job status when going to the polls. 42.3% of Likely Voters are somewhat/very likely to be influenced by the ability to find a new job. Blue Collar workers are more concerned than other voters about losing a job or taking a pay cut while Walmart Moms are more concerned with losing government assistance.

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Which of the following will likely influence your vote in this year’s presidential election? (Somewhat/Very Likely)

Likely Voters


Likely Blue Col-lar Voters



4 in 10 Say Election Results Could Lead to Social Unrest

© 2012, Prosper®


Nearly half of Likely Blue Collar Voters think the results of the election could lead to social unrest.




Likely Voters

0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0%

How likely do you think it is that the result of the 2012 Presidential Elec-tion could lead to social unrest?

Somewhat/very likely Neither likely nor unlikely Somewhat/very unlikely

A Look at Likely Voters

© 2012, Prosper®

5 – Care very much

4 – Care somewhat

3 – Neutral

2 – Don’t care very much

1 – Don’t care at all

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%

• Economy 76.2%

• Healthcare 63.8%

• Taxes 55.1%

• Job Creation 51.8%

• Government Spending 51.2%

Top 5 Election Issues Influences on Voting Decision

Concern for Election Outcome Who will you vote for?

45.9%

46.1%

2.3% 4.6% 1.1%

Barack Obama

Mitt Romney

Gary Johnson

Undecided

Other

None of these

Political party affiliation

Employer or job field

Upbringing

Religion/morals

Personal financial situation

Social issues/civil rights

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%


A Look at Catholic Likely Voters

© 2012, Prosper®

• Economy 82.1%


• Taxes 57.5%





None of these



Upbringing

Religion/morals



0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0%


4 – Care somewhat

3 – Neutral



0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%

43.3%

51.8%

0.6% 3.1% 1.1%

Barack Obama

Mitt Romney

Gary Johnson

Undecided

Other


A Look at Blue Collar Likely Voters

© 2012, Prosper®

• Economy 76.2%

• Taxes 60.0%






40.2%

48.0%

3.8%

6.4% 1.6%

Barack Obama

Mitt Romney

Gary Johnson

Undecided

Other5 – Care very much

4 – Care somewhat

3 – Neutral



0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%

None of these


Upbringing

Religion/morals




0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%


A Look at Walmart Mom Likely Voters

© 2012, Prosper®

• Economy 74.5%


• Taxes 55.4%




Concern for Election Outcome

None of these


Upbringing


Religion/morals



0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%

49.2%

40.8%

3.1%

6.0% 0.8%

Barack Obama

Mitt Romney

Gary Johnson

Undecided

Other


Who will you vote for?


4 – Care somewhat

3 – Neutral



0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%

A Look at Swing States

© 2012, Prosper®

42.3%

51.0%

0.7%5.6%

0.3%Ohio

Barack Obama

Mitt Romney

Gary Johnson

Undecided

Other

Wisconsin Virginia

North Carolina Florida Colorado Iowa


Ohio has been known to decide the Presidential Election, and Romney holds the lead in this state, along with NC, CO and VA. Obama has more support in IA and FL, while Wisconsin has the highest percentage of Undecided Voters.

What to Do After Voting

© 2012, Prosper®


Most of those who are likely to vote this election say they will encourage others to vote. Catholics are the most likely group of those analyzed to do so, while Walmart Moms turn to social media.

Post to LinkedIn

Send a tweet

Tell others who I voted for

Update my status on Facebook

Ask others if they’ve voted

Tell others that I voted

Wear the “I voted today” sticker

Encourage others to go vote

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

Which of the following do you do after voting? (Check all that apply)

(Likely Voters)Key Likely Voter

Segments:

Encourage Others to VoteCatholics: 56.2%Blue Collar: 43.8%WMT Moms: 52.7%

Update Facebook StatusCatholics: 10.2%Blue Collar: 11.2%WMT Moms: 26.2%

Send a tweetCatholics: 3.7%Blue Collar: 4.1%WMT Moms: 7.8%

Voter Fraud is Concern for Majority of Voters

© 2012, Prosper®


The vast majority of Likely Voters think all voters should be required to show identification, and 3 in 5 are concerned voter fraud would change the outcome of an election.

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

54.9%

77.1%

62.3%

To what extent do you agree with the following statements? (Somewhat/Strongly Agree)

Likely Voters




Does your vote matter? Most say “Yes!”

© 2012, Prosper®


Of those Voters analyzed, Catholics are slightly more likely to feel like their vote counts.

12.1%7.3%

80.5%

How much do you think your vote matters? (Likely Voters)

Doesn't matter very much/ at allNeutralMatters somewhat/ great deal


(Vote matters somewhat/ great deal)

Catholics: 82.8%WMT Moms: 81.6%Blue Collar: 81.2%

Will anything get in the way of your vote this year?

© 2012, Prosper®


The majority say nothing will get in the way of them casting a ballot this year. Blue Collar Workers appear to be the most determined.

77.5% Nothing will Stop Me

9.3%Illness or disability

3.8%Bad weather conditions

3.4%Too busy

Which of the following would stop you from voting this year? (Likely Voters)


(Nothing will stop me – I am going to vote no

matter what)

Blue Collar: 84.6%Catholics: 81.5%

WMT Moms: 78.1%

For media inquiries:Chrissy Wissinger, Senior Manager, Communications [email protected] Honkonen, [email protected]

Contact

American Pulse™ is a trademark of Prosper Business Development. Services are delivered by Prosper and/or a Prosper affiliated company (“Prosper”). Prosper makes no warranties, either expressed or implied, concerning: data gathered or obtained from any source; the present or future methodology employed in producing statistics; or the data and estimates represent only the opinion of Prosper and reliance thereon and use thereof shall be at the user’s own risk.

Disclaimer

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