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©Copyright 2007 The Martec Group, Inc. All Rights Reserved
American Road:Clean Diesels for the Real World
14th
DEER ConferenceU.S. Department of Energy
August 5, 2008
1©Copyright 2008 The Martec Group, Inc. All Rights Reserved
What is our national objective?
EPA Wedge Analysis
Reduce consumption of petroleum . . . . . enhance energy security
Stabilize and reduce GHG emissions
Provide the greatest good at the lowest societal cost . . .
… Expand national wealth/ prosperity of the US
Reduce consumption of petroleum . . . . . enhance energy security
Stabilize and reduce GHG emissions
Provide the greatest good at the lowest societal cost . . .
… Expand national wealth/ prosperity of the US
2©Copyright 2008 The Martec Group, Inc. All Rights Reserved
100
125
150
175
200
225
1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019 2022
AB 1493 forces the fleet average 26% below the 2007 EU fleet actual.
US car CAFE (unreformed)
US car fleet
EU fleet
-14% in 12 years
ACEA Voluntary Agreement
AB 1493 PC/LDT1-31% in 7 years
-
40% in 11 years
CO
2gr
ams/
km
Green House Gas Emissions Overview
US and EU test cycles are not equivalent. ARB standard includes max MAC credit. AB 1493 LDT2 definition includes 8,500-10,000 lb. gvw MDPVs. Fuel economy conversions at 19.55 lb CO2
/gallon gasoline and 22.43 lbs/gallon diesel. US fleet excludes
flex fuel credits.
EU Target
Light Duty Vehicles
3©Copyright 2008 The Martec Group, Inc. All Rights Reserved
US and EU –
vastly different fleet characteristics.
0
20
40
60
80
100
US EU US EU US EUFuel Taxes/gal. Transmissions Cylinder Count
3.5L 1.7L
$0.38
$4.00
92% Automatic 80%
Manual
31% 4-cyl
84% 4-cyl
5% 3-cyl
43% 6-cyl
23% 8-cyl
1% 8-cyl
8% 6-cyl
Light Duty Fleet Characteristics
4©Copyright 2008 The Martec Group, Inc. All Rights Reserved
68%
63%
The EU and PC/LDT1 fleet distribution is nearly reversed
below/above ~ 1400 kg mass.
Light Duty Fleet Characteristics
CO2
Mass
Europe
Focus Diesel 5M1325 kg
139 g/km
68%
US
Camry L4 5AT 1425 kg
177 g/km
68%
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0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
Technology enabled an already efficient powertrain to become one
that the mass market wanted to drive.
European Light Duty Diesel Market Share Development
Total Fuel ConsumedDiesel Market Share
Highway
City
Political Cost/BenefitEfficient
+ Fun-to-drive
+ Quiet
+ Clean
6©Copyright 2008 The Martec Group, Inc. All Rights Reserved
The 2007 EU diesel
fleet would not meet the 2016 CA standard.
AB 1493 vs. 2007 Fleet Actual
US and EU test cycles are not equivalent. ARB standard includes maximum MAC credits. Fuel economy conversions at 19.55 lbs CO2
/gallon gasoline and 22.43 lbs/gallon diesel.
AB 1493 PC/LDT1
GH
G g
ram
s/km
105
120
135
150
165
180
210
225
2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021
195 CAFE27.5 mpg
LDT1: 27.0 mpg
EU Gasoline: 32.6 mpg
EU Diesel: 41.6 mpg
US Compact: 31.0 mpg
Pavley
140.2 mpg
Pavley 2 46.6 mpg
7©Copyright 2008 The Martec Group, Inc. All Rights Reserved
Globally, light duty diesels outsell hard hybrids 30 to 1.
WTW Lifetime GHG Saved vs. OEM Mature Hardware Costs –
Midsize Car
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
$100 $150 $200 $250 $300 $350 $400
CO2
MT Saved
Type E Diesel HEV+ $5,500 [ 220%]
Gas PHEV –
CA Grid+ $8,000 [ 320%]
FCV –
H2 from Biomass+ $20,000 [ 800%]
Type E Gas HEV+ $3,500 [ 140%]
ULEV Diesel+ $2,350 [ 94%]
OEM Hardware Cost/MT Saved
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1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
Nickel
Terbium
Platinum
Oil WTI
Lithium
Copper
CobaltDys
prosiu
mNeo
dymium
Rhodium
Over 1 vehicle design cycle, global prices for electrification-
enabling materials rose along with oil.
2003 vs. 2008 Spot Price Index
OPEC is not the only cartel paying attention
9©Copyright 2008 The Martec Group, Inc. All Rights Reserved
Will the PHEV community prove technology developed for the Autobahn matches the way American’s really
drive?
New GM study (Savagian) based on GPS-monitored CA mid-size sedan owners.
•
Median CA driving intensity is between highway and US06 cycles
•
Researcher’s objective is to prove hybrids with larger batteries are required to match the way American’s really
drive
New GM study (Savagian) based on GPS-monitored CA mid-size sedan owners.
•
Median CA driving intensity is between highway and US06 cycles
•
Researcher’s objective is to prove hybrids with larger batteries are required to match the way American’s really
drive
10©Copyright 2008 The Martec Group, Inc. All Rights Reserved
30 year-old federal test procedures are unhinged from the nation’s objective of saving real barrels and real tonnes.
Designing vehicles to artificial test standards leads to:•
Technologies that over promise and under-deliver in real-world•
Attractive real-world technologies left on the table
Designing vehicles to artificial test standards leads to:•
Technologies that over promise and under-deliver in real-world•
Attractive real-world technologies left on the table
City Hwy
Real World
Off-Cycle
US06
PHEV Study
2/3 Fuel Used
City Hwy
Societal PromiseOn-Cycle
CAFE Test
55%45%
City Hwy
109th CongressH.R. 1103
A BILLFuel Efficiency Truth inAdvertising Act of 2005
EPA RevisedSticker
43%
57%
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2 vehicles making a similar promise to society, but the off-cycle delivery is substantially different.
Real World vs. Lab World
mpg
Camry HEV Jetta TDI
CAFE Sticker US06 CAFE Sticker US0624
28
32
36
40
44
48
52
- 16%- 16%
- 35%- 35%
- 23%- 23%
55/4555/45
- 26%- 26%
43/5743/57
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The hybrid value equation is built on stop & go driving conditions, where brake energy is captured.
Jetta TDI
ULEV-II certification•
49.4 ft.2
footprint•
Sticker city:
30 mpg•
Sticker highway:
40 mpg•
43/57 combined:
35 mpg
ULEV-II certification•
49.4 ft.2
footprint•
Sticker city:
30 mpg•
Sticker highway:
40 mpg•
43/57 combined:
35 mpg
Camry HEV
AT-PZEV (SULEV) certification•
54.4 ft.2
footprint•
Sticker city:
33 mpg•
Sticker highway:
34 mpg•
43/57 combined:
34 mpg
AT-PZEV (SULEV) certification•
54.4 ft.2
footprint•
Sticker city:
33 mpg•
Sticker highway:
34 mpg•
43/57 combined:
34 mpg
13©Copyright 2008 The Martec Group, Inc. All Rights Reserved
Societal benefit of a diesel ULEV vs. an AT-PZEV.
-30%
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
WTW CO2
WTW Fossil Fuel
WTW Petro Fuel
Total NOx
Total PM10
Based on California Energy Commission study, June 2007.
CA WTW Benefits Over Life of the Vehicle (B10 and E10 Fuel)
Jetta TDI Savings vs. Camry HEV
Die
sel V
ehic
le O
ver/(
Und
er)
HEV
Policy
Parity
Monetized using NHTSA2008 Values
$27 $275 $33 $4
14©Copyright 2008 The Martec Group, Inc. All Rights Reserved
Clean Diesel Miles per Dollar Index©
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
Jun-9
8Ju
n-99
Jun-0
0Ju
n-01
Jun-0
2Ju
n-03
Jun-0
4Ju
n-05
Jun-0
6Ju
n-07
Jun-0
8
Gasoline Parity
Miles per Dollar in a Clean Diesel Vehicle as an Index to Gasoline
1.235MoreClean Diesel Miles/$
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Both consumers and the nation win with clean diesel.
Summary
1.
To expand American prosperity, policies must achieve the greatest good at the lowest societal cost.
2.
To maximize petroleum and GHG savings from the light duty fleet,
focus technology where the most fuel is consumed.
•
High speed/high load drivers•
Who accumulate the most miles per year
3.
Measuring fleet fuel consumption and GHG emissions with antiquated test
procedures will not align with:
•
A society that consumes 2/3rd
of all fuel in non-urban use•
Policy makers who will be accountable in barrels and tonnes•
Manufacturers who must survive in this “wedge”
4.
To give consumers –
and society –
the best value for money, focus on fuel efficiency solutions that deliver:
•
Best drivability•
Lowest variable cost increase•
Highest demonstrated residual value performance
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