amma dry-run 22 august – 2 september 2005 comments from j-ph lafore (cnrm) and an example...
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AMMA DRY-RUN22 August – 2 September 2005
Comments from J-Ph Lafore (CNRM) and an example validation for 26/08/2005
Cases: an active period!
• Weak convective days– 24, 27, 30 August
• Long-lived MCS events– 27-30 August; – 30 August – 3 Sept;– 2 Sept. – 5 Sept
• Convection to N of Mali in 3 cases
General impressions
• Models struggle with convection even at 24 hours (no surprise)
• Generally harder to predict suppressed convection
• LAM not necessarily better at convective prediction than Global (but better structure)
• Active hurricanes downstream!!
OBSERVATIONS
NOAA-CPC Precipitation estimate valid 20050826-06UTC to 20050827-06UTC
Precipitation SYNOP reports
valid for 20050826-06UTC to 20050827-06UTC
24 hour cumulated FORECAST
(a)
(c)
(b)
(d)
24 hour accumulated rainfall (20050826 00UTC-24UTC) for:
(a) ARPEGE, (b) ARPEGE Tropiques, ( c ) ECMWF, (d) UK globalModel.
24 hour accumulated rainfall (20050826-06UTC to 20050827-06UTC)
for ECMWF model (Initialization: 20050821-12UTC).
24 hour accumulated rainfall (20050826-06UTC to 20050827-06UTC) for MESONH model.(Initialization: ECMWF 20050823-00UTC).
24 hour accumulated rainfall (20050826-06UTC to 20050827-06UTC) for
NOAA/NCEP model (Initialization: NCEP/GDAS 20050826-00UTC).
IPSL/LMDz GCM model at ~70km (forced by NCEP analysis)
24 hour accumulated rainfall (20050826-06UTC to 20050827-06UTC
ETA model (forced by NCEP analysis)
6 hour cumulated FORECAST
6-hour cumulated precipitation
INITIAL CONDITIONS: ALADIN NORAF 20050826 – 00UTC
00-06 06-12
12-18 18-24
INITIAL CONDITIONS: UK Global 20050825 – 18UTC
00-06 06-12
12-18 18-24
ECMWF Global model: 20050826
00-06 06-12
12-18 18-24
IPSL/LMDz GCM: 20050826
00-06 06-12
12-18 18-24
IPSL/LMDz GCM: 20050826 at 12UTC
20050823 06UTC-12UTC 20050823 12UTC-18UTC
20050823 18UTC-24UTC
INITIAL CONDITIONS:ECMWF 20050823 – 00UTC