amp capital booragoon activity centre ......ii amp capital: booragoon activity centre structure plan...

AMP CAPITAL

BOORAGOON ACTIVITY CENTRE STRUCTURE PLAN

ECONOMIC, EMPLOYMENT AND RETAIL REPORT

NOVEMBER 2013

DISCLAIMER

This report has been prepared for AMP Capital. The information contained in this report has been prepared with care by the authors and includes information from apparently reliable secondary data sources which the authors have relied on for completeness and accuracy. However, the authors do not guarantee the information, nor is it intended to form part of any contract. Accordingly all interested parties should make their own inquiries to verify the information and it is the responsibility of interested parties to satisfy themselves in all respects.

This report is only for the use of the party to whom it is addressed and the authors disclaim any responsibility to any third party acting upon or using the whole or part of its contents.

Document Control

Document Version Description Prepared By Approved By Date Approved

v 1.0 Booragoon Activity Centre Structure Plan Suzie Turner Michael Chappell 13 August 2013

v 2.0 Booragoon Activity Centre Structure Plan Suzie Turner Michael Chappell 24 September 2013

v 3.0 Booragoon Activity Centre Structure Plan Suzie Turner Michael Chappell 26 November 2013

PERTH: 23 Lyall Street South Perth Western Australia 6151 • t (08) 9367 1511 • f (08) 9367 4066MELBOURNE: Cannons House Level 7, 12-20 Flinders Lane Melbourne Victoria 3000 • t (03) 9654 5775

e [email protected] • www.pracsys.com.au

i

CONTENTS

1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1

1.1 Local Context 1

1.2 Policy Context 1

1.3 Trends 1

1.4 Future Vision 2

1.5 Retail Analysis 2

1.6 Employment Analysis 3

1.7 Conclusion 3

2 INTRODUCTION 4

3 LOCAL AND POLICY CONTEXT 5

3.1 Booragoon Activity Centre 5

3.2 Activity Centres Policy Context 5

3.3 Centre Maturity and Functions 6

3.4 Main Trade Area 8

3.5 Trends 8

3.6 Implications 11

4 FUTURE VISION FOR BOORAGOON SECONDARY CENTRE 12

4.1 Data Sources 12

4.2 Booragoon Vision 12

4.3 Alternative Activity Centre Metrics 14

5 RETAIL ANALYSIS 15

5.1 Demand Analysis 15

5.2 Supply Analysis 23

5.3 Booragoon Retail Market Potential: The Next Ten Years 24

5.4 Network Impacts 25

ii

AMP Capital: Booragoon Activity Centre Structure Plan

6 EMPLOYMENT 33

6.1 Background 33

6.2 Central Sub Region Employment 35

6.3 Booragoon Secondary Centre Employment 39

6.4 Employment Conclusion 41

7 CONCLUSION 42

APPENDIX 1: RETAIL MODELLING 44

8.1 Methodology 44

8.2 Assumptions 44

APPENDIX 2: EMPLOYMENT ANALYSIS 46

9.1 Principles 46

9.2 Methodology 50

9.3 Assumptions 50

APPENDIX 3: PRACSYS METRICS THEORY 52

10.1 Pracsys Diversity Metric 52

10.2 Pracsys Intensity Metric 52

10.3 Pracsys Employment Metric 53

10.4 Pracsys Accessibility Metric 53

APPENDIX 4: MAIN TRADE AREA ASSUMPTIONS 54

APPENDIX 5: FLOORSPACE SUPPLY ASSUMPTIONS 59

APPENDIX 6: RETAIL TURNOVER 68

APPENDIX 7: GLOSSARY 72

1

1.0

1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

The analysis contained in this report has been undertaken throughout the preparation of an activity centre structure plan to ground-truth the future vision for Booragoon Secondary Centre.

1.1 LOCAL CONTEXT

Booragoon Secondary Centre (Booragoon) is centrally located in the City of Melville, and within 9 km of Fremantle Strategic Metropolitan Centre and within 10 km of Perth CBD.

Garden City Shopping Centre (Garden City) comprises the majority of the activity within the Centre, land uses around the shopping centre are also considered to be part of the Centre. Garden City is tenanted by a unique tenancy mix of relatively high end boutique stores as well as the department stores of Myer and David Jones and the discount department store, Kmart, as anchor tenants. There is also a cinema on site, and a range of dining options located throughout the Centre. The majority of other activity outside the shopping centre is comprised of offices, including the Alcoa Building, medical suites and the City of Melville administration offices. The City of Melville also runs a public library at the centre.

The catchment for Booragoon extends north to Stirling Highway, west to the coast, and south and east to Success, Banjup, Canning Vale and Thornlie.

1.2 POLICY CONTEXT

Booragoon is classed as a secondary activity centre under the activity centres hierarchy set out in State Planning Policy 4.2: Activity Centres for Perth and Peel (SPP 4.2). Placed third-

highest in the hierarchy, this type of centre is expected to function at a high level in terms of:

• Service population catchment

• Accessibility and transport connectivity

• Range of retail and office floor-space types

• Residential density

Given the relatively high level classification of the centre, it is also expected to provide a meaningful contribution to the overall employment self-sufficiency1 (ESS) of the Central Sub-Region. Under Directions 2031, the ESS target is 121%. As at the 2011 ABS Census the ESS of this area was 121%, after dropping from 124% in 2006.

1.3 TRENDS

Four trends are considered highly important to the future development of Booragoon. These are:

• The increasing market share of online retail - there is a need for traditional retailers to compete with and complement this type of retail

• Deregulation of retail trading hours - expected to be an advantage for large centres such as Booragoon as they are attractive enough to trade well throughout the weekend, and the extra weekend day makes better use of transport and parking infrastructure

1 The proportion of jobs located in a geographic area (region, corridor, local government) relative to the residents in that same area who are employed in the workforce. For example, if the area has 1,000 employed residents and 450 local jobs available, the employment self-sufficiency rate is 45%.

2


• Office floorspace demand - the demand for offices at Booragoon is expected to be primarily confined to population-driven industries due to the lack of public transport infrastructure, and the plans to focus new offices around nearby Canning Bridge and Murdoch activity centres

• Residential development - increasing residential intensity around activity centres is a goal of SPP 4.2. This is expected to increase the local catchment around the centre and provide support for a range of activities outside normal businesses hours

1.4 FUTURE VISION

The future vision for Booragoon Secondary Centre includes:

• To continue the focus on high-end retail as the primary function of the centre by increasing and improving the offer of retail in alignment with the expected needs of the catchment;

• To ensure the proposed floorspace expansion of Garden City is commercially viable and palatable to the centre owners;

• To provide the best chance for an expanded Garden City to support the functions of Booragoon as a Secondary Centre, by facilitating the future development of non-retail commercial uses within and around the shopping centre, and of higher density residential dwellings within the activity centre walkable catchment;

• To improve the overall function and maturity of Booragoon as a Secondary Centre, by developing or providing

capacity for additional employment, a more diverse offer of goods and services, improved access by non-private vehicle means, and increased residential density within the walkable catchment.

1.5 RETAIL ANALYSIS

The following conclusions can be made from the retail analysis:

• There is substantial latent demand for goods and services in the Booragoon catchment, with expansions at other activity centres within the activity centres network possible even with a 60,000 m2 expansion of Garden City Shopping Centre.

• There are expected to be trading impacts on the centres in the surrounding network, but only for the portion of the catchment shared between Booragoon and other centres. The extent of the impact depends on the function of the other centre, the current and projected future trading condition for the other centre, and the distance between Booragoon and the other centre. Centres that are expected to expand during the modelling period are likely to still increase their turnover as the new floorspace makes the centre more attractive.

• The unique function of Booragoon in the southern part of the central sub-region as a regional high-quality comparison retail destination differentiates it from the surrounding activity centres in the network. It is expected that many trips generated by the centre will be for the purpose of this type of retail shopping, with only three other alternative

3


destinations in Perth (Karrinyup Secondary Centre, Claremont Secondary Centre and Perth CBD). Expanding this function at Booragoon is expected to prevent leakage to outside the Perth Metropolitan Region to the eastern states and overseas via online retail.

1.6 EMPLOYMENT ANALYSIS

The following conclusions can be made from the employment analysis:

• The proposed expansion of Garden City Shopping Centre is expected to result in employment provided above the Directions 2031 implied target for the activity centre.

• The proposed land uses and floorspace capacity in the structure plan are expected to result in employment provided far above the Directions 2031 implied targets for the activity centre.

1.7 CONCLUSION

The proposed vision for the Booragoon structure plan and the expansion plans for Garden City Shopping Centre appear to be in line with the expectations of a secondary centre laid out by Directions 2031 and SPP 4.2. The vision is expected to result in a more mature secondary centre which offers a greater range of activities, employment and moves towards a more efficient urban form.

While the expansion is expected to impose some trading impacts on other centres nearby in the network, there is a need to Booragoon to continue to provide for high quality comparison shopping within the sub-region, and to compete with alternative business models for acquiring similar goods.

4

2.0

This report has been prepared for AMP Capital, as part of the preparation of an activity centre structure plan for Booragoon Secondary Centre (also referred to as Melville City Centre). The analysis contained in this report has been undertaken throughout the preparation of the structure plan to ground-truth the future scenario for Booragoon Secondary Centre, including investigating the following:

• Assist in determining a future vision for Booragoon Secondary Centre;

• Ensure the proposed amount of retail floorspace is supportable at the location, and in line with the function of a secondary centre;

• Assess whether the impact on additional retail on centres nearby in the activity centres network will be acceptable;

• Determine what non-retail land uses, and the ideal scale of these, will contribute to a better functioning, more mature secondary centre appropriate to the unique characteristics of the centre and surrounding activity centres network; and

• Ensure the new development at the centre is in line with the goals of Directions 2031 and State Planning Policy 4.2: Activity Centres for Perth and Peel (SPP 4.2).

2 INTRODUCTION

5

3.0

3.1 BOORAGOON ACTIVITY CENTRE

Booragoon Secondary Centre (Booragoon) is centrally located in the City of Melville. Figure 1 shows the context of the Centre in relation to the remaining activity centre network.

The site is most accessible by road, located within 2 km of two major transport arterials in Canning and Leach Highways, and within 4 km of the Kwinana Freeway. Booragoon Secondary

Centre is in a strategically important location in the activity centres network of the south-east portion of the Central Sub-Region, within 9 km of Fremantle Strategic Metropolitan Centre and within 10 km of Perth CBD.

While the Garden City Shopping Centre (Garden City) comprises the majority of the activity within the Centre, land uses around the shopping centre are also considered to be part of the Centre. Garden City is tenanted by a unique mix of high-end boutique stores, as well as the department stores of Myer and David Jones and the discount department store, Kmart, as anchor tenants. There is also a cinema on site, and a range of dining options located throughout the Centre. The majority of other activity outside the shopping centre is comprised of offices, including the Alcoa Building, medical suites and the City of Melville administration offices. The City of Melville also runs a public library at the centre.

3.2 ACTIVITY CENTRES POLICY CONTEXT

Booragoon is classed as a secondary activity centre under the activity centres hierarchy set out in State Planning Policy 4.2: Activity Centres for Perth and Peel (SPP 4.2). Placed third-highest in the hierarchy, this type of centre is expected to function at a high level in terms of:

• Service population catchment

• Accessibility and transport connectivity

• Range of retail and office floor-space types

• Residential density

The activity centre targets set out in SPP 4.2 for secondary centres are detailed in Figure 2.

3 LOCAL AND POLICY CONTEXT

Figure 1. Booragoon Secondary Centre location map

Source: Pracsys 2012

6


Figure 2. SPP 4.2 secondary centre targets

Area of Focus Secondary Centre Targets

Service population Up to 150,000 people

Walkable catchment 400 m

Transport connectivity and accessibility

Important focus for passenger rail and high frequency bus networks

Typical retail development

Department stores

Discount Department Stores

Supermarkets

Full range of specialty shops

Typical office developmentMajor offices

Professional and Service Businesses

Residential density target (gross ha)

25 (minimum)

35 (ideal)

Diversity performance target (mix of land uses floor-space as a proportion of the total centre floor-space)

Above 100,000 m2 – 50%

50,000 m2 – 100,000 m2: 40%

20,000 m2 – 50,000 m2: 30%

10,000 m2 – 20,000 m2: 20%

Less than 10,000 m2: N/A

Source: State Planning Policy 4.2: Activity Centres for Perth and Peel, WAPC, 2010

3.3 CENTRE MATURITY AND FUNCTIONS

3.3.1 Employment and Residential

Given the relatively high level classification of the centre, it is expected to provide a meaningful contribution to the overall employment self-sufficiency2 (ESS) of the Central Sub-Region. Under Directions 2031, the ESS target is 121%. As at the 2011 ABS Census

2 The proportion of jobs located in a geographic area (region, corridor, local government) relative to the residents in that same area who are employed in the workforce. For example, if the area has 1,000 employed residents and 450 local jobs available, the employment self-sufficiency rate is 45%.

the ESS of this area was 121%, after dropping from 124% in 2006.

Directions 2031 also states that the additional dwellings target for the City of Melville is 11,000 dwellings. From this target an estimated additional 12,200 jobs will be required for the City of Melville. A number of other developments in the City will contribute significantly to the employment target. The recently released draft structure plan for the nearby Murdoch Strategic Metropolitan Centre sets out high aspirations for employment and residential population, with the centre expected to accommodate an estimated 20,000 residents and 35,000 jobs. Employment in this centre will have a strong focus on developing strategic economic activity into several localisation economies3 with population-driven activity providing a support role.

If this eventuates, the employment target for the City of Melville will be exceeded, and the additional dwellings target close to met. However, this does not take away from the need for Booragoon Secondary Centre to provide employment and dwellings as required under SPP 4.2. The goal of providing the Centre’s surrounding population with local access to goods, services and employment is a critical element of SPP 4.2 and of developing a more sustainable centres network.

3 The result of a number of firms and enterprises in complementary industries and supply chains locating in the same area. They are the result of one or more of three factors: availability of specific skilled and specialised labour; availability of specialised/essential inputs at a more competitive value due to economies of scale; and increased efficiency in knowledge transfer/technology spill-overs/collaborations and partnerships due to proximity of partners.

7


Substantial additional employment is also planned for Bentley/Curtin Strategic Metropolitan Centre, located 10 km east of Booragoon Secondary Centre and within the Central Sub-Region, but outside of the City of Melville. This will also increase the ESS of the Central Sub-Region and is likely to be an important location for high-knowledge jobs, but like those located at Murdoch, will not take away from the need for Booragoon Secondary Centre to provide employment accessible to local residents.

3.3.2 Current and Future Economic Maturity

In order to function at a high level, an activity centre must have a high degree of economic maturity. Centre maturity is distinct from the position in the hierarchy. The hierarchy is useful for formal classification of centres, and to indicate at a very high level the intended function of centres. Centre maturity provides a more in-depth understanding of the commercial focus of a centre, and how a centre functions. The maturity of a centre is determined by the proportion of high quality employment located there (see Figure 3). Booragoon Secondary Centre is currently functioning as a specialised population-driven centre, with a strong focus on retail and entertainment land uses, with a developing urbanisation economy4 around these uses.

The aspiration for the centre is to move towards a multi-function population-driven centre, incorporating a greater diversity of land uses including offices, dwellings, business services and community uses. Expansion of the centre will allow the urbanisation economy to continue to develop and mature as is appropriate for a secondary centre. The development of additional, specialised high-end retail within the centre could form a small localisation economy, resulting in the centre having a greater catchment than previously due to increased attraction of the retail offer compared to competing centres in the surrounding area.

4 An urbanisation economy can develop as a result of population growth and the sheer scale of an activity centre. Urbanisation economies result from the general benefits that a firm will gain from locating in a particular urban environment. This includes access to general labour pools, access to financial and commercial services, and proximity to transport and communications networks.

Figure 3. Secondary activity centre economic maturity


8


3.4 MAIN TRADE AREA

The main trade area for Booragoon Secondary Centre is shown in Figure 4. The primary catchment extends north the Swan River, east beyond the Kwinana Freeway to the Bull Creek inlet, west to the boundary between Myaree and Melville, and south to Leach Highway. The secondary trade area extends north-east through South Perth, Como and Manning, south-east from Shelley, Bull Creek and Leeming, south to Murdoch, Kardinya, Samson and White Gum Valley, and west along the southern boundary of the Swan River to East Fremantle. The tertiary trade area extends further north to Stirling Highway, west to the coast, and south and east to Success, Banjup, Canning Vale and Thornlie.

In terms of centres also visited by patrons of Booragoon Secondary Centre, these include Fremantle, Perth CBD, Carousel, Bull Creek and Kardinya Park. In terms of floorspace and offer, only Perth CBD, Fremantle and Carousel are considered to be currently competing with Booragoon.

3.5 TRENDS

A number of emerging trends in retail, entertainment, residential and commercial development are changing the urban form and function of activity centres and the surrounding suburbs. Retailers in particular are vulnerable to the rapidly changing market, and in the future will need to respond to these changes in order to remain viable in the long-term. A discussion on some of the primary drivers of change is below.

3.5.1 Online Retail

Online sales in 2010 accounted for 6% of total retail spending equating to $12.6 billion. The Productivity Commission has also projected that online sales in Australia are projected to grow by 10-15% per annum over the next three years5. The Australian Productivity Commission

5 http://www.pc.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0009/113769/07-retail-industry-chapter4.pdf

(http://www.dbcde.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0020/131951/Household_e-commerce_activity_and_trends_in_Australia-25Nov2010-final.pdf)

Figure 4. Booragoon Secondary Centre main trade area


9


has estimated that the domestic online share of total retail sales is 4% and overseas online sales account for around 2% of total retail sales (2010). A recent report6 shows that e-commerce adoption increases relative to income. Generally household income in the catchment is high compared to that of Western Australia. It is likely local residents are high consumers of online retail, potentially to the expense of local retailers.

Online retailing has faced increasing scrutiny from the Australian media recently, as major retailers have attempted to lobby the government to apply GST to goods purchased online. This has since been rejected on the basis that the cost of implementation would outweigh any benefits. It has also been noted that most consumers of online retail choose the method for reasons other than just price, including the convenience of receiving goods by mail and the increased variety of goods offered by online retailers. Another aspect of the increasing consumption of mobile phones and tablets has resulted in greater use of these devices to find and purchase goods and services. In addition, the vast majority of Australians are using technology to assist their purchase decisions, even though the final point of sale may be from a physical store7.

In parallel with the increasing level of online retail activity is the emergence of hybrid retailers, that is, firms that employ both electronic and physical channels for sales and exploit the synergies between them. This model typically combines the searchability, accessibility and flexibility of e-commerce with the proximity and efficiency of a traditional activity centre based store. While this model will

6 Access Economics (2010) Household E-Commerce Activity and Trends in Australia

7 http://www.perthnow.com.au/lifestyle/technology/use-of-mobile-phones-tablets-to-shop-online-surges-to-more-than-5-billion/story-fn5jm44e-1226516609281

not suit all retailers, the shift will help maintain the percentage of retail sales captured by domestic businesses by reducing the leakage to online retail expenditure.

Planning for expansion of Booragoon Secondary Centre needs to be cognisant of the trend towards increased market share for online retailing required with appropriate feedback mechanisms to revise the supply of retail over time as the need for retail floorspace changes. Ideally new retail floorspace will be flexible enough to change over to other uses if market conditions dictate.

3.5.2 Deregulation of Retail Trading Hours

Prior to 2010, under the Retail Trading Hours Act 1987, general retail shops were restricted to trading 8 am to 6 pm on weeknights other than designated late-night trading nights, between 8 am and 5 pm on Saturdays, and generally restricted to between 11 am and 4 pm on Sundays in designated special trading precincts, which included Perth and Fremantle. Trading on public holidays was heavily restricted. Under the Retail Trading Hours Amendment Act 2010 and additional amendments effected from 26 August 2012, general retail shops across the Perth Metropolitan Region were allowed to trade from 8 am to 9 pm all weekdays, from 8 am to 5 pm Saturdays, and from 11 am to 5 pm on Sundays and most public holidays. Deregulation of trading hours effectively means that general retailers currently regulated by general shop retail hours may, under a deregulated trading hours regime, have the option to trade under the same conditions as small shops and /or special retail shops.

There are early indications that the introduction of Sunday trading across the Perth will most likely be successful for large shopping centres offering primarily comparison shopping,

10


including Booragoon, and less successful for smaller shopping centres focused on convenience shopping. The increased flexibility in opening hours is likely to result in a greater need for centres to self-determine their user mix, as overall expenditure is not likely to be affected by trading hours. For Booragoon Secondary Centre, this also means they centre has a greater ability to compete with the centres in the surrounding network, particularly Perth and Fremantle. If longer opening hours prove more convenient for their user mix the centre has the potential to attract a proportion of people who currently spend online rather in a centre.

3.5.3 Office Floorspace Demand

As complement to the retail expansion, and in line with the requirements of SPP 4.2, the provision of office floorspace is being considered as part of Booragoon Secondary Centre. This trend has been observed across Perth, with demand for floorspace within shopping centres from corporate clients rising in 2012. Given that large amounts of office floorspace is planned for the nearby Murdoch and Bentley/Curtin Specialised Centres, and there is significant existing floorspace in Fremantle Strategic Metropolitan Centre, the demand for office floorspace at Booragoon is likely to be limited to local population-driven industries.

While Booragoon is well-serviced by public transport, in the form of buses, the lack of heavy rail or high frequency light rail/bus services connecting to other important sub-regional activity centres will limit the viability of office floorspace in the location. Public transport connections, and indeed pedestrian and cycling infrastructure as well, are critical to facilitate the efficient movement of workers in and out of the centre without having adverse impacts on the road network.

3.5.4 Residential Development

The development of dwellings within Booragoon Secondary Centre is also being considered as a complement to the retail expansion. SPP 4.2 requires a minimum residential density for secondary centres of 25 dwellings per hectare, and suggests an ideal density would be 35 dwellings per hectare.

The 2011 ABS census data showed that the Perth Metropolitan Region has unique residential development trends in terms of dwelling types and sizes. Perth has the highest percentage of four-bedroom dwellings at 38% of total dwelling stock. By comparison the capital city with the next highest proportion of four-bedroom dwellings was Brisbane with 29% of total housing stock. This does not appear to be highly correlated with household size, which is on average 2.6 people in Perth.

The vast majority of dwellings in Perth are single houses (71%), comparable to concentrations in Brisbane, Adelaide and Hobart. However Perth also has the lowest percentage of apartments dwellings, the most compact form of housing. Some areas of Perth show remarkable divergence from this trend. The housing stock around Booragoon is even more homogenous, with nearly 80% of all dwellings in the form of single households. There are very few high density dwellings, with flats and apartments comprising less than 8% of all dwellings.

Trends in Melbourne under a similar activity centres policy to SPP 4.2 showed that under the operation of the policy, houses were getting larger while the size of lots was reduced. The exception to this trend was the development of dwellings in the inner city, which saw an increase in single bedroom dwellings8.

8 Goodman, R; Buxton, M; Cheteri, P; Taylor, E and Wood, G. 2010. Planning and the characteristics of housing supply in Melbourne. Australian Housing and Urban Research Institute, RMIT Research Centre.

11


Development of medium to high density dwellings, in contrast to the existing housing stock, is a risk that many developers have in the past not been willing to take until the demand for this type of housing can be demonstrated. The lack of choice in housing in Perth has probably led to a feedback cycle where residents choose to purchase or live in single houses because that is what is available, creating demand for more of this type of housing.

Development of medium and high density housing at Booragoon has the potential to serve a number of important functions:

• Additional local population to support the entertainment businesses

• Increased population to induce demand for higher frequency public transport and reverse trips to the centre

• Lower cost housing for the population moving into home ownership or rental accommodation, such as the younger generation of existing local residents and local workers

3.6 IMPLICATIONS

The main implications of the Booragoon Secondary Centre context analysis are:

• The centre is strategically located between the higher order centres of Murdoch, Bentley/Curtin, Fremantle and Perth. The high knowledge industry focus of the surrounding centres and the population-driven industry focus of Booragoon is likely to result in minimal competition in terms of employment and industries. It is likely that there will be some competition for comparison retail between Booragoon, Fremantle and Perth, although Perth is currently

considered to be outside Booragoon’s Main Trade Area

• The expansion of retail floorspace at Booragoon will need to be cognisant of the changing retails trends, especially the leakage to online retail. The design of the centre may need to be flexible enough to allow an evolution of uses as retail continues to change in the future

• Office floorspace will need to be a part of the expansion of Booragoon. It is expected to provide for local population-driven industries and is not likely to compete with similar floorspace at Fremantle, Murdoch or Bentley/Curtin

• The residential density in the area surrounding the centre is required to increase as part of SPP 4.2. Increased residential density in a well-developed activity centre will provide the opportunity for people to work, shop and recreate within walking distance of their home. This has the potential to significantly reduce pressure on transport networks and reduce time spent commuting between activities

12

4.0

4.1 DATA SOURCES

The following vision for Booragoon Secondary Centre has been developed from:

• Estimates of current floorspace derived from the WAPC Land Use Survey (2007-08);

• Estimates of the change in floorspace at Garden City and elsewhere within Booragoon from Hames Sharley;

• Estimates of the capacity for non-retail land uses across the activity centre core and frame of 65,000 m2, making up a total capacity of 185,000 m2, from Rowe Group;

• Estimates of the quantum of floorspace appropriate for Booragoon in the context of:

o A secondary activity centre surrounded by suburbia

o The current uses located at the activity centre

o Future uses which may complement the retail functions

4.2 BOORAGOON VISION

The future vision for Booragoon Secondary Centre includes:

• To continue the focus on high-end retail as the primary function of the centre by increasing and improving the offer of retail in alignment with the expected needs of the catchment;

• To ensure Garden City is one of the premier high-end retail shopping destinations in the Perth Metropolitan Region catchment, providing an offer of

goods and services, and an experience, that will attract retail transactions to the centre rather than allowing leakage out of the State or country;

• To ensure the proposed floorspace expansion of Garden City is commercially viable and palatable to the centre owners;

• To provide the best chance for an expanded Garden City to support the functions of Booragoon as a Secondary Centre, by facilitating the future development of non-retail commercial uses within and around the shopping centre, and of higher density residential dwellings within the activity centre walkable catchment;

• To improve the overall function and maturity of Booragoon as a Secondary Centre, by developing or providing capacity for:

o A range of additional employment opportunities, meeting the employment targets of Directions 2031;

o A comprehensive range of retail products and services, as appropriate to a centre surrounded by a residential area (i.e. no bulky goods);

o Opportunity for significant entertainment, health and offices to develop as are appropriate, to provide for the catchment population of the centre;

o Improved overall diversity of the activity centre as guided by SPP 4.2 and Pracsys diversity metrics;

4 FUTURE VISION FOR BOORAGOON SECONDARY CENTRE

13


o Improved access to the centre by a variety of transport types; and

o A walkable catchment with increased residential density and a wider variety of housing types than currently available.

Figure 5. Booragoon ultimate scenario

Floorspace Type

(WAPC PLUC)

Current Floorspace

(m2)

Structure Plan Floorspace

Capacity (m2)

Primary/Rural 0 m2 0 m2

Manufacturing/Processing/Fabrication 0 m2 0 m2

Storage/Distribution 0 m2 0 m2

Service Industry 237 m2 237 m2

Shop/Retail 62,622 m2 120,000 m2

Other Retail 0 m2 0 m2

Office/Business 21,240 m2 35,502 m2

Health/Welfare/Community Services 800 m2 2,500 m2

Entertainment/Recreation/Culture 5,274 m2 16,895 m2

Residential (non-private) 0 m2 8,700 m2

Utilities/Communications 720 m2 1,400 m2

Total 90,895 m2 185,234 m2

Diversity ratio 69% Shop/Retail : 31% Other

65% Shop/Retail : 35% Other

Source: Pracsys 2013; WAPC 2007-08; Rowe Group 2013; Hames Sharley 2013

Under this scenario, the new floorspace could be achieved by the developments outlined in Figure 6.

Figure 6. Booragoon potential new development breakdown

Floorspace Type

(WAPC PLUC)Potential New Developments

Shop/RetailAMP expansion of Garden City Shopping Centre

2,500 m2 dining and eating establishments

Office/Business

8,500 m2 office shown on architects plans

3,700 m2 office to provide population-driven functions

1,300 m2 to make up capacity of structure plan

Health/Welfare/Community Services

200 m2 to provide population-driven functions

500 m2 shown on architects plans

1000 m2 for childcare/child health/other

Entertainment/Recreation/Culture

8,500 m2 expanded cinema

2 x 500 m2 bistro

3 x 100 m2 small bars

1,600 m2 full service gym

300 m2 budget gym

1,500 m2 function centre

5 x 100 m2 fitness studios

1,000 m2 art exhibition space and studios

200 m2 indoor play area

1000 m2 other cultural spaces

Residential (non-private)

12 x 100 m2 serviced apartments

Retirement village 100 x 75 m2 units

Utilities/Communications 680 m2 incidental to Garden City expansion

Source: Pracsys 2013; WAPC 2007-08; Rowe Group 2013; Hames Sharley 2013

14


4.3 ALTERNATIVE ACTIVITY CENTRE METRICS

The diversity target outlined in SPP 4.2 is a simple ratio of retail to non-retail floorspace. Using a ratio of retail to non-retail floorspace to measure diversity of floorspace is problematic for a number of reasons. The metric only values retail uses against all other uses. An activity centre could provide only two different types of floorspace, e.g. retail and office and under the SPP 4.2 diversity metric could be considered highly diverse. In reality the centre may offer only two types of activity, which is unlikely to meet the policy’s stated goal of encouraging multi-purpose trips. To consider only two types of things as being diverse is not in keeping with the definition of diversity as ‘having variety’9.

This metric also assumes that more non-retail floorspace will better meet the needs of the activity centre catchment. The reality is where retail is undersupplied, only more retail can meet the retail needs of the catchment. Insufficient retail floorspace supply is likely to lead to leakage out of the catchment and result in more trips being made to alternative locations, or purchases made online. Supplying or providing additional capacity for non-retail floorspace without regard to the drivers of that type of floorspace has the potential to result in unlettable floorspace supply and poorly formed activity centres. The definition of retail in this case is very broad and includes land uses such as cafes, restaurants and fast food as well as supermarkets, department stores and specialty shops. Using this diversity ratio does not very well illustrate the change in opportunities for consumers at an activity centre, and therefore the change in trip generation to the 9 Collins dictionary (http://www.collinsdictionary.com/

dictionary/english/diverse?showCookiePolicy=true)

centre. Pracsys have developed an alternative range of metrics to measure activity centre performance, including a diversity metric that provides a better measure of the true diversity of an activity centre (see Figure 7). These metrics are intended to encompass the success criteria required for activity centres to function as outlined in SPP 4.2, as the basic building block for a more efficient urban form that facilitates multi-purpose trips and a lower reliance on transport via private vehicles. A detailed explanation of the theory behind these metrics can be found in Appendix 3: Pracsys Metrics Theory.

The metrics show improvement in activity centre performance across a range of categories, with the most significant improvement shown in intensity. The accessibility metric has not changed as this is based on proximity to the CBD and major public transport infrastructure, neither of which are expected to change as a result of this structure plan.

Figure 7. Booragoon diversity calculations

Diversity Calculation Method Current Future

Pracsys Diversity Metric 3.00 out of 10 3.25 out of 10

Pracsys Intensity Metric 4.75 out of 10 7.00 out of 10

Pracsys Employment Metric 5.50 out of 10 6.25 out of 10

Pracsys Accessibility Metric 5.00 out of 10 5.00 out of 10

SPP 4.2 Diversity ratio




15

5.0

5.1 DEMAND ANALYSIS

The following section demonstrates the demand for expanded floorspace at Booragoon Secondary Centre through analysis of the primary and secondary catchment socio-economic profile and current levels of expenditure. The areas relevant to this analysis are shown in the main trade area map (Figure 4). The demand analysis is focused on Garden City Shopping Centre.

5.1.1 Socio economic profile

Primary Catchment

Figure 8 summarises the relevant statistics of the primary catchment area. This area encompasses the suburbs of Booragoon, Applecross, Ardross, Mount Pleasant and Brentwood.

Income

Average median incomes in the primary catchment are considerably higher than State or national levels. This is evidenced by median income being appreciably higher than either at almost $1,700 per household per week. This higher income contributes to the exceptional demand that is experienced by Garden City and will be instrumental in determining the amenity mix that is appropriate for Booragoon Secondary Centre. The high income of the primary catchment suggests that high-end retail stores and entertainment offerings are likely to be successful in the environment.

Employment

It is also worth noting that the unemployment rate here is considerably lower in comparison to both the State and national levels, and that labourforce participation rates are slightly lower than State levels, but higher than national levels. Low unemployment and low participation rates in conjunction with the higher median household income suggest that inherent wealth levels in the area are high. With high inherent wealth levels it can be expected that demand for goods and services will be relatively steady, and not overly sensitive to fluctuations in unemployment rates.

Age

The average median age of the primary catchment is 41. This is older than the median age of Western Australia and Australia (36 and 37 respectively). An older demographic in the primary catchment will alter the types of goods demanded at Garden City and should be considered when deciding the mix of land uses and tenants. For instance a family in a younger

5 RETAIL ANALYSIS

Figure 8. Primary catchment socio-economic profile

Statistics Description Primary Catchment WA Australia

Age Average median age from suburbs in catchment 41 36 37

Unemployment Rate % of the labourforce unemployed 4.0% 4.7% 5.6%

Labourforce Participation Rate

% of residents over 15 years in the labourforce 63% 64% 61%

Income Average median household income of suburbs in the catchment $1,693 $1,415 $1,234

Housing

Owned outright 43% 30% 32%

Owned with mortgage 29% 38% 35%

Total owned 72% 67% 67%

Rented 26% 29% 29%

Other/not stated 3% 3.4% 3.4%

People Per Household Average persons per household 2.5 2.6 2.6

Source: ABS Census of Population and Housing (2011)

16


stage of life with newborn or young children will likely need more day-care centres, toy stores and baby care items. Older populations are likely to have preference to spending on leisure activities and holidays10.

Housing Ownership and Tenure

Home ownership is relatively high and homes owned outright (i.e. no mortgage) shows the largest discrepancy at almost 13.5% higher than the State average. Households that own their homes outright will contribute towards a higher level of demand as the residents will have a higher proportion of their income to spend on goods and services, rather than having funds diverted away to service a mortgage. Similarly, high outright dwelling ownership rates and a relatively low number of rented dwellings are likely to cause demand from the catchment to remain steady and be less sensitive to the swings in both interest rates and rental rates.

Overall the primary catchment’s above average earnings, low unemployment and high home ownership rates means that demand can be expected to remain strong. Similarly this combination can be expected to produce steadier demand relative to the rest of the state as it has diminished exposure to shocks such as changing interest rates, rental prices or unemployment rate changes.

10 www.gva.co.uk/WorkArea/DownloadAsset.aspx?id=12884905187

5.1.2 Secondary North East Catchment

The North East Secondary catchment is comprised by the suburbs of South Perth, Como and Manning. Figure 9 summarises the relevant statistics of the catchment.

Figure 9. Secondary north east catchment socio-economic profile

Statistics Description Secondary North East WA Australia




% of population over 15 years in the labourforce 65% 64% 61%

Income Average median household income of suburbs in the catchment 1,550 1,415 1,234

Housing




Rented 43% 29% 29%


People Per Household Average number of people per household 2.3 2.6 2.6


Income, Employment and Labourforce Participation

The secondary northeast catchment is characterised by low unemployment, high labourforce participation and high average median incomes. This strong attachment to the workforce as well as the above average earnings means that demand from this catchment can be expected to be relatively strong going forward.

17



Overall the proportion of homes owned outright or under mortgage in the catchment is low relative to the rest of Western Australia. Of these, the proportion of homes owned outright was near the State average.

The catchment has a high rate of rentals. The demand profile can be therefore expected to be particularly sensitive to shifts in the rental prices. Due to the proportion of houses being owned outright being relatively steady, and the proportion of homes owned with a mortgage being relatively low, the catchment is not expected to be particularly sensitive to interest rate shifts.

5.1.3 Secondary South Catchment

The Secondary South catchment is comprised of the suburbs Winthrop, Murdoch, Kardinya and Willagee. Figure 10 summarises the relevant statistics of the catchment.


The secondary south catchment area has a relatively high unemployment rate as well as a low participation rate relative to the rest of the state. Despite this, income remains slightly above State levels.


Home ownership rates are high within the catchment, with 41% of residents owning their own homes outright. Similarly the proportion of houses owned with a mortgage is relatively low, and amount of houses rented is also relatively low. This housing profile points towards a low sensitivity to interest and rental rates that contributes to a steadier demand profile. This tenure mix will also contribute to a higher overall wealth, and thus demand, as more income can be used on discretionary spending rather than being diverted to servicing mortgages and rental costs.

Figure 10. Secondary south catchment socio-economic profile

Statistics Description Secondary South WA Australia





IncomeAverage median household income of suburbs in the catchment

1,447 1,415 1,234

Housing




Rented 23% 29% 29%




18


5.1.4 Secondary West Catchment

The Secondary West catchment is comprised of the suburbs of Myaree, Alfred Cove, Attadale, Bicton, Palmyra, East Fremantle and White Gum Valley. Figure 11 summarises the relevant statistics of the catchment.

Age

The suburbs that make up the secondary west catchment have a high average median age relative to the median age of the rest of the State. This will alter the types of goods that are demanded and should thus be considered when tenancy and amenity mix are being evaluated.


Unemployment in the catchment is particularly low at a level of 3.6% though participation rates are slightly below state levels. The average median household income of suburbs in the catchment is relatively high in comparison to state and national levels. Low unemployment levels and high incomes point towards strong demand from this catchment.


Tenure mix shows a high amount of homes owned outright relative to the rest of the state in conjunction with lower rental and mortgage types. This mix will make the catchment less sensitive to shifts in the interest and rental rates as well as giving it a higher wealth level due to a higher disposal income after overheads.

Figure 11. Secondary west catchment socio-economic profile

Statistics Description Secondary West WA Australia





Income Average median household income of suburbs in the catchment 1,508 1,415 1,234

Housing




Rented 27% 29% 29%




19


5.1.5 Secondary East Catchment

The Secondary East catchment is comprised of the suburbs of Leeming, Bull Creek, Rossmoyne and Shelley. Figure 12 summarises the relevant statistics of the catchment.

Age

A high average median age is one of the characteristics that stands out for the catchment as it is considerably higher than the median age of Western Australia. This higher median age should be considered in future tenancy and amenity mix decisions as it will have a significant effect on what is demanded from the catchment.


Unemployment is notably lower in the catchment relative to the rest of the state at 4.0%. Labourforce participation rates are slightly lower than the State average. Average median income is high in comparison to the rest of the State.


Outright home ownership in the catchment is considerably higher than the State average. While the proportion of rented dwelling is relatively low compared to the State, homes owned with mortgages are above State levels. This tenure mix points towards a catchment that is not sensitive to rental rates but may show sensitivity to interest rates relative to Western Australia. Despite this the proportion of homes owned outright will improve the amount of disposable income available and contribute to strong demand from this catchment.

5.1.6 Current Expenditure

Examining current expenditure around Booragoon Activity Centre (Garden City) allows analysis of the current performance of the centre in terms of trading, and more importantly to demonstrate the viability of any possible expansions to the floor space of the centre. Total expenditure profiles show how much money it is possible to be spent at the centre, and as such also shows the maximum possible amount that could be captured within the centre. As Garden City will be the destination for the majority of the expenditure, the analysis has focused on expenditure within the shopping centre.

Figure 12. Secondary east catchment socio-economic profile

Statistics Description Secondary East WA Australia

Age Average Median Age from suburbs in catchment 42 36 37

Unemployment Rate % of the Labourforce unemployed 4.0% 4.7% 5.6%


% of population over 15 years in the Labourforce 63% 64% 61%

Income Average Median Household Income of Suburbs in the Catchment 1,717 1,415 1,234

Housing


Owned with Mortgage 39% 38% 35%


Rented 19% 29% 29%




20


Expenditure profiles are primarily based on levels of income. Expenditure per household was assessed across the primary, secondary and tertiary catchments. The majority of households (34%) are within the fourth income quintile, which is equal to a household income of $78,000 - $155,999.

The expenditure profile of residents is primarily determined by income, as there is positive correlation between income and retail expenditure. Both incomes and retail expenditure have experienced strong long term growth, however recent macro-economic factors have contributed to a slow down in retail spending.

The modelling carried out shows the proportion of current expenditure that Garden City captures. Garden City currently captures 4.3% of retail and entertainment spending within the trade area. Broken down into types of floorspace, Garden City captures 2.7% of total convenience spending, 6.5% of total comparison spending and 2.9% of total entertainment spending.

Figure 13 shows average quarterly retail growth over two separate periods of five years (Dec 2002 - Sep 2007 and Dec 2007 – Sep 2012). Overall retail turnover increased by 1.2% per quarter or 4.8% annually in the period from December 2002 and September 2007. The following 5 years have experienced a slowing of growth, resulting in an average of 0.5% per quarter growth, or 2% growth annually. Population in Australia over the past five years has grown on average by 1.5%. Based on this and current trends a conservative expenditure growth rate of 1% has been assumed, which reflects the retail growth not accounted for by population growth as well as a slight pickup

in retail growth, though not to the levels previously seen.

Current expenditure at Garden City is high, which is a function of both supply and demand factors. On the demand side there is high disposable income due to high gross incomes and low outgoing expenses, this is largely a result of high outright home ownership rates. On the supply side, the Garden City superior tenancy mix means it is a premier shopping destination. This is reflected by the May 2011 Customer Exit Survey which indicates that Garden City is the regular centre to shop at for clothing, homewares and gifts for 65% of respondents.

5.1.7 Future Expenditure

Expenditure Projections

Projections for future expenditure have been modelled to examine how expanded floorspace at Garden City can be supported from the

Figure 13. Average Quarterly Growth Australian Retail

Source: ABS Retail Trade Australia Cat. 8501.0 Sep 2012-11-27

21


catchment. In order to support the amount of floorspace proposed expenditure will need to increase. There are three ways expenditure is likely to increase in the Garden City catchment:

• Increasing the amount of money in the catchment through an increase in disposable income

• Expanding the catchment size in terms of population size

• Capturing market share from competition to reduce leakage

Of these options, only the first two are likely to be sustainable in the long term, these are able to be achieved by Garden City in the future as density in the catchment grows and through expanding and offering a unique amenity mix.

Figure 14 shows the expected changes which are likely to result in increased expenditure in the Garden City catchment. The following sections discuss the amount of additional expenditure likely to be captured through these means illustrated.

Population Growth and Shocks

Average population of the catchment is forecasted to grow at an average of 1.4% per annum over the next five years, increasing the number of dwellings from around 365,000 to around 390,00011. As population increases, total expenditure will increase alongside it at the same rate. This population increase will be facilitated through minor residential development, such as lot subdivision and new group dwellings.

Several population ‘shocks’ are forecast within the next decade for the current Garden City catchment and beyond. These have not been included in the demand modelling as they are beyond the five year timeframe of the modelling, however, it important to understand the drivers of long-termer demand.

Canning Bridge, a district centre within the primary catchment, is expected to support up to 2,500 additional residences in the future. However, structure planning is still underway for this area and it is not known when substantial amounts of new dwellings will be constructed. It is highly likely many of the future residents of this area will visit Garden City for comparison shopping needs as it is very close. The degree to which Garden City competes with Perth CBD for the custom of Canning Bridge residents will depend on

11 id population forecasts, WA Tomorrow Band C forecasts (2011)

Figure 14. Potential expenditure changes


22


the tenancy mix, amenity and ease of access to each centre. As the Mandurah railway line and Canning Bridge Station are located within the bounds of the activity centre in the short term the easy access to Perth CBD may induce people to shop there rather than at Garden City. However if Garden City offers a unique retail experience some people will prefer to shop there.

Murdoch Strategic Metropolitan Centre, located in the southern secondary catchment for Garden City, is expected to provide the biggest population shock in the future. While the additional population target for this activity centre was 3,400 in Directions 2031, the structure plan currently out for public suggests a much more substantial development supporting up to 22,000 residents (around 9,000 dwellings)12. Given the retail floorspace provided at Murdoch is expected to be primarily convenience shopping, a significant proportion of additional expenditure at Garden City is likely to come from future Murdoch residents.

Cockburn Central, located in the southern tertiary catchment of Garden City, continues to develop as an activity centre. It is expected to support upwards of 1,000 additional dwellings in the next decade. Cockburn Gateway Shopping Centre will probably account for the majority of retail and entertainment needs, however, a proportion of the residents will visit Garden City. The high-end comparison shopping and potentially the entertainment mix are likely to be the attractors.

Bentley/Curtin Strategic Metropolitan Centre is located to the east of the current catchment. Under Directions 2031 there is a target of

12 Murdoch Activity Centre Structure Plan, WAPC

6,000 additional dwellings. While this centre is located outside the current catchment, with residents most likely to visit Carousel Shopping Centre for the majority of their comparison shopping, the additional floorspace and type of retail at Booragoon has the potential to expand the catchment into this area.

It is expected that growth in future expenditure within the catchment will be strong, based on population forecasts as well as the aforementioned one-off population increase. Similarly an increase in floorspace will most likely work to expand the size of the catchment were the expansion to contain unique retail offerings not offered elsewhere in Perth.

Future expenditure is likely to be affected by the current prevalence of online retailing and its continued growth, currently estimated to continue increasing at a rate of 0.8% per annum.

5.1.8 Demand Analysis Implications

Socio-Economic Profile Implications

Overall the catchment socio-economic profile compared to the State average can be summarised by the following:

• Somewhat older

• High income households

• Low unemployment

• High home ownership rates particularly in the outright ownership category

The age of the population is meaningful and should be planned for in terms of amenity and tenant mix, to ensure that future demand is met. The ability of Garden City to meet its

23


catchments demand needs have given Garden City a strong competitive advantage over other centres to date. These characteristics point towards strong, steady demand for future retail and commercial activity.

Expenditure Implications

The current and future expenditure profiles indicate the following:

• Garden City currently captures 4.3% of retail and entertainment spending within the trade area. This is comprised of 2.7% of total convenience spending, 6.5% of total comparison spending and 2.9% of total entertainment spending

• Retail is expected to grow at a rate of 1% per annum

• The expenditure at Garden City is expected to increase in the future as the catchment size increases. This is likely to occur through a combination of natural population growth in the catchment, increases in dwelling density within the catchment and an increase in the attraction of the centre (and therefore the spatial area covered by the catchment)

5.2 SUPPLY ANALYSIS

5.2.1 Supply Scenarios

To model the potential impacts of expanded floorspace at Garden City, three different scenarios for were developed. Scenario 1 entails no growth, Scenario 2 comprises a 30,000 m2 expansion, and Scenario 3 comprises a 60,000 m2 expansion. Modelling in this manner demonstrates the current state of the activity centres network, the impacts of to the network of a conservative floorspace expansion and the impact of a maximum floorspace expansion.

The assumed floor space split used between comparison, convenience and non-retail uses is shown in Figure 15.

Figure 15. Supply scenarios

Floorspace UseScenario 1

No Expansion

Scenario 2

30,000 m2 Expansion

Scenario 3

60,000 m2 Expansion

Comparison N/A Additional 20,000 m2

Additional 45,000 m2

Convenience N/A Additional 5,000 m2

Additional 7,500 m2

Non-Retail N/A Additional 5,000 m2

Additional 7,500 m2


5.2.2 Competitor Analysis

A variety of different competitor movements were assessed and conclusions made on the viability of their movements below. Figure 16 shows a synopsis of the expected competitor situation in the next five years.

24


Figure 16. Five-year competitor projections

Centre Name Type Development Phase

5-Year Change

Northbridge Link Capital City Planning/

Construction 16,000 m2

Canning City Centre

Strategic Metropolitan Centre

Structure Planning N/A

FremantleStrategic Metropolitan Centre

Strategic Planning - 10,000 m2

Murdoch Specialised Cente

Development Approval + 29,000 m2

Bentley/Curtin Specialised Cente

Strategic Planning N/A

Cockburn Secondary Centre

Development Approval + 20,000 m2

Canning Bridge District Centre Structure

Planning N/A

Riseley Street District Centre Structure Planning N/A

Bull Creek District Centre Unknown N/A

Kardinya District Centre Unknown N/A

Belmont Park District Centre Structure Planning +16,027 m2

Harvest Lakes Neighbourhood Centre

Planning/ Construction +5,100 m2


While there are a number of other developments planned for the activity centres around Booragoon, only those deemed likely to being trading within the next 5 years have been included in the modelling. These are a net loss of 10,000 m2 at Fremantle, due to Myer closing down, and an additional 20,000 m2 of floorspace as a result of the Gateways Shopping Centre expansion at Cockburn Central, which is already underway. Of the centres identified as likely to expand beyond the next five years, the centres with the highest likelihood of impacting Booragoon in the medium term are the Northbridge Link, Cannington (Carousel), Murdoch and Canning Bridge.

5.3 BOORAGOON RETAIL MARKET POTENTIAL: THE NEXT TEN YEARS

Demand analysis was used to estimate the future market potential for Booragoon Activity Centre under three scenarios. The modelling assumptions and methodology can be found in Appendix 1: Retail Modelling. The Main Trade Area population, expenditure and floorspace supply assumptions can be found in Appendix 4: Main Trade Area Assumptions and Appendix 5: Floorspace Supply Assumptions.

The potential impacts have been summarised in Figure 17. The retail turnover during this time period is shown in Appendix 6.

Between years 2013 and 2014 floorspace demand increases slightly as natural population growth occurs. Between 2014 and 2015 there is a slight drop in floorspace demand as competition from new floorspace at Murdoch and Cockburn Central (Gateways Shopping Centre) is expected to begin trading. From 2015 to 2016 there is a significant drop in demand at Booragoon as part of the shopping

Figure 17. Booragoon market potential


25


centre is closed for renovation, and there is less floorspace to attract people to the centre. In 2017 the new floorspace begins trading and demand increases dramatically in response to the larger, more attractive centre. In this case the size of the catchment has increased. From 2018 to the end of the modelling period in 2022, demand increases in response to natural population growth.

An expansion of retail floorspace at Booragoon to a total of 120,000 m2 across the activity centre is expected to have a range of effects, including:

• Take up some of the latent demand for goods and services currently estimated to exist at the centre and in the wider catchment, especially for high quality comparison goods

• Increase the size of the catchment for centre, due to the increased attractiveness of the offer both in terms of quantity of floorspace and in the types of tenants intended to occupy the floorspace

• Reduce leakage from the regional catchment to other States or to overseas by providing an attractive alternative offer of goods and services currently not available in the region or State

The increase in turnover modelled for Booragoon activity centre is substantial, with close to a 200% increase projected as a result of the expansion or floorspace. While this may seem excessive there are a number of reasons for this result.

Total turnover is a function of the attractiveness or size of the centre, the disposable income of the catchment, distances from the centre and the utility and disutility to travel. Given this, it is entirely possible for a centre to have an increase in turnover even if it were to

remain the same size or decrease in size. The relationship between floorspace and turnover is not a linear relationship. Floorspace is essentially used as a proxy for attractiveness. As the centre grows larger it becomes more attractive and the catchment spends a greater proportion of their money at the centre. In this case the attractiveness represents the increase in diversity and scale that allows more people to service their needs in one place and also represents the quality of the offering presented by Garden City.

Turnover is related to the income, expenditure and number of households in the catchment. As detailed in the assumptions population increases have been included over the 10-year modelling period. Forecasts from .id have been used for the primary catchment and WA Tomorrow forecasts have been used for the remaining trade area. This is expected to result in a net increase in total money available in Garden City’s catchment, of which a significant proportion is expected to go to retailers within Booragoon Secondary Centre. Incomes have also been increased within the modelling period. A net real increase per annum in total expenditure has also been included, this has been detailed in the assumptions. Hence from the demand side there has been an increase in both population and spending per household.

5.4 NETWORK IMPACTS

Potential impacts to the activity centre network have been examined as part of the process in determining the feasibility of the expansion scenario. Impacts are shown for the shared catchment of the following activity centres:

• Murdoch Specialised Centre

• Bull Creek District Centre

• Petra Street District Centre

26


• Melville District Centre

• Kardinya District Centre

• Riseley Street District Centre

• Canning Bridge District Centre

• Fremantle Strategic Metropolitan Centre

• Cannington Strategic Metropolitan Centre

• Cockburn Secondary Centre

It is important to note that these impacts are for the proportion of the catchment that is shared between Booragoon and other activity centres, not for the total catchment of other activity centres. In the case of the district centres located in the City of Melville the catchment crossover is expected to complete. However, for the higher level centres, especially Cannington, the crossover in catchment is typically significantly less. The retail turnover for activity centres within the network are shown in Appendix 6.

5.4.1 Murdoch

Murdoch is designated a specialised centre under SPP 4.2. The potential impacts have been summarised in Figure 18.

Between years 2013 and 2014 floorspace demand increases slightly as natural population growth in the catchment occurs, however, little retail floorspace is available at this point in time. Between 2014 and 2015 there is a significant increase in floorspace supply and catchment population, as Murdoch Mix new floorspace is expected to begin trading and new dwellings in the same areas are occupied. Between 2015 and 2017 there is some increase in floorspace demand due to natural population growth and some of the floorspace at Booragoon during the construction period for the Garden City Shopping Centre expansion. When the new Garden City retail floorspace begins

trading in 2018 a dip in demand is shown as the new floorspace competes with the existing floorspace for consumer spending. After 2018 demand continues to grow across the catchment as natural population growth continues. The growth in demand after 2018 is highly dependent on the amount of new dwellings located at Murdoch as part of the fulfillment of the activity centre structure plan.

This analysis has only taken into account demand generated by residents, and has excluded the additional retail demand that will likely be generated from the current visitors to Murdoch University, the visitors to new office floorspace located at Murdoch, and the expected Fiona Stanley Hospital workers and visitors, estimated to be around 10,000 per day13. The workers located at the centre were also excluded. The additional visitors and workers are expected to generate significant retail demand beyond what has been quantified.

13 http://www.inmycommunity.com.au/news-and-views/ local-news/Preparing-for-hospital-traffic/7645510/

Figure 18. Murdoch potential impacts


27


5.4.2 Bull Creek

Bull Creek is designated a district centre under SPP 4.2. The potential impacts have been summarised in Figure 19.

The current floorspace supply at Bull Creek is close to the maximum level of floorspace demand, meaning there is only just enough

demand to support current levels of floorspace. Expansions of floorspace at Murdoch, Cockburn Central and Booragoon are expected to impact on the level of floorspace that can be supported at Bull Creek due to their very close spatial location, and the focus of Bull Creek on convenience retail. The peak from 2013 to 2014 shows natural population growth resulting in increased demand. The trough from 2014 to 2015 is a response to new floorspace trading at Murdoch and Cockburn Central. The recovery from 2015 to 2017 is a response to renovations at Booragoon and natural population growth. The trough from 2017 to 2018 is a response to the new floorspace trading at Booragoon. The recovery of demand growth is in response to natural population growth.

Bull Creek does not quite recover to 2013 levels by 2022. This is due to the combined effect of the nearby expansions of retail floorspace, and the current saturation of demand with the catchment of the centre.

5.4.3 Petra Street

Petra Street is designated a district centre under SPP 4.2. The potential impacts have been summarised in Figure 20.

The results for Petra Street show floorspace demand dropping as a result of the expansions at Murdoch in 2015 and Booragoon in 2018. The impact is significantly less than for Bull Creek, which is partly due to the increased distance of Petra Street from both expanding centres and therefore it is less likely that residents of the Petra Street catchment will frequently visit Booragoon. The modelling also indicated there is currently excess demand for floorspace at this location. There is potential for additional floorspace to be supported for the duration of the modelling period at Petra Street. No new floorspace was included at this location as part of the modelling.

Figure 19. Bull Creek potential impacts


Figure 20. Petra Street potential impacts


28


5.4.4 Melville

Melville is designated a district centre under SPP 4.2. The potential impacts have been summarised in Figure 21.

The results for Melville are similar to the results for Petra Street. Both centres show a drop in demand when new floorspace at Murdoch and Booragoon begin trading, but a lower impact than seen at Bull Creek. Melville also showed the potential for additional floorspace to be supported at the centre to meet existing demand, although no new floorspace was included at this location in the modelling.

5.4.5 Kardinya

Kardinya is designated a district centre under SPP 4.2. The potential impacts have been summarised in Figure 22.

The impacts modelled for Kardinya are similar to the impacts modelled for Bull Creek, which is unsurprising are both centres are of a similar function and size, and are both located very close to Murdoch and Booragoon. However, the impact on Kardinya is somewhat less than the impact for Bull Creek, and the recovery therefore faster. It should also be noted that Kardinya is currently trading close to the maximum supportable floorspace, therefore the centre has limited room to move in the event of an expansion nearby. No new floorspace was included at this location as part of the modelling.

Figure 22. Kardinya potential impacts


Figure 21. Melville potential impacts


29


5.4.6 Riseley Street

Riseley Street is designated a district centre under SPP 4.2. Impacts to Riseley Street are summarised in Figure 23.

While structure planning is currently underway at this location, it is still in preliminary stages and no new floorspace has been included in the modelling. However, the results show that even with an expansion at Booragoon there is excess demand at Riseley Street. The impact profile of the centre shows that while there is a comparatively large impact on Riseley Street, in part due to the close proximity of the centre to Booragoon, an almost complete recovery is expected within five years of the new floorspace at Booragoon commencing trading. If additional population and floorspace locate at Riseley Street during this time period, it is likely demand will increase at the location.

5.4.7 Canning Bridge

Canning Bridge is designated a district centre under SPP 4.2. The potential impacts have been summarised in Figure 24.

Structure planning is currently underway at Canning Bridge, with the vision for the centre to accommodate significant levels of strategic offices and new residential, as well as expand the amount of retail (primarily convenience) and entertainment floorspace located at the centre to support the future vision. However, as structure planning is only in preliminary stages no new floorspace has been included in the modelling.

The impact profile for the centre is similar to that for Riseley Street, showing an initial increase in demand in line with population growth in the surrounding catchment, and a drop in demand when new floorspace at Murdoch begins trading. Demand then recovers almost to initial levels as a result of natural population growth, then drops when the new floorspace at Booragoon begins trading. Demand then

Figure 24. Canning Bridge potential impacts


Figure 23. Riseley Street potential impacts


30


recovers with population growth. Given the location of retail at Canning Bridge is along either side of Canning Highway, it is possible that higher levels of trade than those modelled will be captured due to the exposure of the retail to drive-by trade moving between Perth and Fremantle.

Additional demand can be created at Canning Bridge by:

• Increasing the amount of retail floorspace, and therefore the attractiveness of it;

• Increasing the amount of offices, attracting trade from employees and businesses; or

• Increasing the number of dwellings in the local catchment, attracting trade from nearby residents.

It is expected that the structure plan for Canning Bridge will address all three of these criteria, and the amount of retail supported at Canning Bridge will increase despite the expansion at Booragoon. However, the purposes of consumer trips to Canning Bridge are likely to be very different to those for Booragoon.

5.4.8 Fremantle

Fremantle is designated a strategic metropolitan centre under SPP 4.2. Figure 25 shows potential impacts to Fremantle resulting from an expansion of floorspace at Garden City.

Fremantle showed a similar impact profile to the district centres in the City of Melville, however the impacts on the centre are minor. Fremantle is sheltered from the effects of the expansions for a few reasons:

• Only the part of the catchment shared between Fremantle and Booragoon is impacted;

• Retail trade is only a minor trip generator for Fremantle, with the centre hosting a very wide variety of different functions including entertainment, education, health, tourism, industry and office14; and

• Of the retail offer at Fremantle, only a small proportion is considered comparison retail, which is a primary purpose of visiting Booragoon.

In addition, it should be noted that comparison retail floorspace has contracted in Fremantle over the last few years with Myer closing down the store there. This means overall Fremantle is significantly less attractive as a destination for this kind of retail than previously.

5.4.9 Canning City Centre (Carousel)

Canning City Centre is also designated a strategic metropolitan centre under SPP 4.2. Potential impacts on Canning City Centre (Carousel) can be seen in Figure 26. However, the centre is far less mature than Fremantle, and while the activity centre encompasses more than just Carousel, it is heavily reliant on

14 Shetliffe and West (2010) Fremantle Retail Model Plan

Figure 25. Fremantle potential impacts


31


the comparison floorspace located within the shopping centre.

Cannington shows a similar impact profile to Fremantle, with only minimal impacts modelled for the expansion of Booragoon. The recovery after the expansion is expected to result in much higher levels of demand at Cannington. The modelling did not take into account any new retail floorspace or population shocks at Cannington. However, of and when the structure plan for the centre is endorsed it is likely that some redevelopment will take place. An expansion of retail floorspace or an increase of dwellings in the catchment is expected to result in an increase in demand for retail at the centre. It should also be noted that the cross-over in catchment for Cannington and Booragoon is relatively small.

In terms of retail types, Cannington is more similar to Booragoon than any other activity centres nearby with comparison retail being one of the primary trip generators for the centre. However, the range of retail goods and services at Booragoon is targeted at a more affluent market than Cannington, as fitting for the different catchments for the two centres.

Also, like Fremantle, Cannington is expected to provide a far more diverse range of activity than just retail. As yet this is still to be realised as the centre does not have the same competitive advantages, history or maturity as Fremantle does, however there is a significant bulky goods and large format retail component to the centre which is not present at Booragoon.

5.4.10 Cockburn

Cockburn is designated a strategic metropolitan centre under SPP 4.2. Figure 27 shows potential impacts to Cockburn resulting from an expansion of floorspace at Garden City.

Figure 26. Canning City Centre potential impacts


Figure 27. Cockburn potential impacts


32


Cockburn shows a similar impact profile to Murdoch, as it also includes a floorspace expansion. The demand is expected to increase significantly at the centre as a result of the increased floorspace. The modelling showed a slight decrease in demand as a result of the Booragoon expansion, however there is minimal impact shown overall.

5.4.11 Potential Impacts Implications

Generally impacts modelled on the nearby centres appear to be within acceptable ranges15, with some centres showing larger impacts than others as a result of their current trading conditions, the functions of the centre, and the position in the network.

There are potentially a range of reason why the results modelled could change in the future. Firstly, these figures were created with the aforementioned assumptions. If floorspace ratios change from these assumptions these figures would also change as a result.

Secondly, potential impacts could change based on tenancy mix. For example, a tenant with no other presence in Perth would attract customers from a much wider catchment (i.e. the current situation with IKEA), and would have a much more defendable impact as it is not the result of simply out muscling the opposition, it is a unique value proposition.

Thirdly, the staging of the floorspace development will potentially change the impacts significantly. The modelling has only been undertaken for a period five years. This is somewhat ambitious to implement 60,000 m2 new floorspace. It is likely staging

15 Performance Benchmarking of Australian Business Regulation (2010). Productivity Commission

of the floorspace beyond this time period will significantly reduce the potential impacts on the activity centres network.

Lastly, the impact of currently unknown changes at other centres will affect the potential impact of an expansion at Garden City. A drop in floorspace at another centre will allow Garden City to take up the latent demand. A more likely scenario, an expansion of floorspace at another centre has the potential to increase the attractiveness of that centre, allowing it to compete more effectively with Garden City and result in reduced impacts on that centre.

33

6.0

6.1 BACKGROUND

6.1.1 Policy Context

Two State Government policies have primary influence over employment planning in the Perth Metropolitan Region. These are Directions 2031 and SPP 4.2: Activity Centres for Perth and Peel (SPP 4.2).

Directions 2031

Directions 2031 and Beyond outlines the growth policy, targets and staging for each of the city’s six sub-regions.

Directions 2031 outlines the new hierarchy of activity centres in the Perth and Peel Regions. This hierarchy nominates the role each centre should play within the network and identifies which centres should assume a strategic role, and which should perform population driven functions. The strategic roles are intended to be fulfilled primarily through the CBD, Specialised Centres and Strategic Metropolitan Centres. These centres are based around infrastructure and are, or have the potential to be, large enough to produce productivity increases from agglomeration. These centres should provide an alternative strategic employment location to the CBD, maximise leverage from transport infrastructure and begin to address the economic, social and environmental costs associated with extensive commuting.

One of the primary objectives of Directions 2031 is to achieve a more balanced distribution of population, dwellings and employment across the metropolitan area. This involves:

• Improving the employment self sufficiency of the outer sub-regions

• Increasing distribution of new residents and dwellings to the central sub-region

Large lower level centres, such as Booragoon, are intended to provide significant levels of employment but with a focus on population-driven employment. The role of these centres is not only to provide a full range of population driven amenity but also to play a greater role in the provision of high-order Knowledge Intensive, Export-Oriented (KIEO) jobs, services and facilities to the sub-region to reduce the growing pressure and congestion in the Perth Central Area.

SPP 4.2: Activity Centres for Perth and Peel

Replacing the previous Metropolitan Centres Policy, SPP 4.2 specifies the requirements for the planning and development of new centres and the redevelopment and renewal of existing centres in the Perth and Peel Regions.

One of the greatest shortcomings of the Metropolitan Centres Policy was the over-reliance on the single development control of retail floorspace. While the retail floorspace levels in the policy were intended as a guide, they were interpreted as retail floorspace maxima for each level of the hierarchy of centres. Focusing on a single metric had the result of not addressing other outcomes sought.

There are four principles for sustainable activity centres that are broadly encompassed within SPP 4.2. These include:

• Activity centres with diverse offerings and users are desirable for an economically, environmentally and socially sustainable city

6 EMPLOYMENT

34


• Activity centres need to perform a role in providing both quantity and quality employment as appropriate for its position in the defined hierarchy

• Activity centres should be vibrant and intense places of an appropriate scale

• Activity centres need to be accessible to a wide user mix utilising different modes of transport

6.1.2 Scope of Employment Allocation Modelling

The 2010 release by the Western Australian Planning Commission (WAPC) of Directions 2031 and Beyond – Spatial Framework for Peel (Directions 2031) signaled a significant change in the State’s approach to planning for activity centres. For the first time the proximity of a residential population to jobs has been expressly dealt with through the setting of sub-regional employment self-sufficiency targets16. These targets recognise the current incongruence between Perth’s settlement patterns, and the location of quality employment, with population growth mostly occurring in the outer sub-regions, whilst quality employment is mostly centralised around the CBD and key infrastructure locations.

Giving consideration to the strategic objectives of both Directions 2031 and SPP 4.2, extensive economic modelling has been undertaken to translate high level sub-region population and employment targets into specific employment generation targets for individual activity centres, and modelled the growth and development of centres over time. Full

16 That is, the percentage of jobs in an area available to that area’s workforce.

details of the principles, methodologies and assumptions underpinning this analysis are included in Appendices A, B and C. An activity centre structure plan must demonstrate a contribution to the overall employment self sufficiency target for the sub-region and address any employment requirements outlined in a relevant local planning strategy. For these employment figures to be truly relevant at a local government area and activity centre planning level a method is required that links broader sub-regional employment targets to specific activity centres within a sub-region. The top-down employment allocations required for the Booragoon Secondary Centre to support the employment target of the central sub-region have been modelled utilising the following variables:

• Projected sub-regional residential population at a defined time in the future (2031)

• The employment self sufficiency target for the sub-region at this time

• The position in the hierarchy of individual activity centres

• An in-depth knowledge of existing economic activity

The employment allocation analysis is top-down. It does not pre-empt demand for commercial activity but instead provides a scenario that will achieve the target set for the central sub-region. The analysis conducted provides a breakdown of employment based upon the function of that employment; that is population-driven17 or strategic18.17 Population driven employment develops in direct

response to population growth. As such its location will be largely determined by the location of population growth, as well as activity centre hierarchy and maturity.

18 Strategic employment results from economic activity

35


Key top-down variables considered within this analysis includes:

• Population

• Employment self sufficiency

• Employment self containment

• Activity centre maturity

• Land constraints

• Infrastructure investment

6.2 CENTRAL SUB REGION EMPLOYMENT

6.2.1 Location and Context

Figure 28 illustrates the extent of the central sub-region of metropolitan Perth. The central sub-region covers an area of 45,290 hectares and encompasses the following local governments:

• City of Bayswater

• City of Belmont

• City of Canning

• City of Fremantle

• City of Melville

• City of Nedlands

• City of Perth

• City of South Perth

• City of Stirling

• City of Subiaco

• Shire of Peppermint Grovefocused on the creation and transfer of goods and services to an external market. The location of strategic employment is not driven by population growth, but rather by a range of other factors, including agglomeration economies.

• Town of Bassendean

• Town of Cambridge

• Town of Claremont

• Town of Cottesloe

• Town of East Fremantle

• Town of Mosman Park

• Town of Victoria Park

• City of Vincent

The central sub-region has a dominant role in the metropolitan area in terms of employment economic, social, and cultural activity. It includes the Perth capital city area, the highest order activity centre, and focus for the metropolitan region as a whole. It also contains three of the city’s four universities, major hospitals, major sporting infrastructure and the State’s preeminent culture and arts facilities. Consequently, the residents of the central sub-region enjoy good access to highly skilled jobs and access to consumer services, relative to residents in the outer sub-regions.

36


6.2.2 Population Projections

In 2011, the resident population of the sub-region was estimated by the ABS Census to be 732,828 people. There are numerous population forecasts prepared for the central sub-region, and the timing and magnitude of growth varies considerably between them. WA Tomorrow is the State demographer’s spatial projections of future population growth for Western Australia. The forecasts represent the best estimate of future population size if trends in fertility, mortality and migration continue. The most recent release is consistent with Directions 2031 forecast, and as such is considered to be the most appropriate projection for this analysis. According to Band C of WA Tomorrow (2012), the population of the central sub-region is expected to reach 898,500 people by 2026.

6.2.3 Employment Targets

One of the primary concerns of Directions 2031 is to more closely align the spatial location of people’s place of residence and place of work by ensuring employment opportunities are made available close to residential areas. The rationale behind this is that by increasing employment self-sufficiency (ESS)19, employment self-containment (ESC)20 will also increase. Directions 2031 addresses the challenge of aligning residents and employment from the employment end, by imposing ESS targets on existing residential areas. This challenge is illustrated in Figure 29.19 The proportion of jobs located in a geographic area

(region, corridor, local government area) relative to the residents in that same area who are employed in the workforce.

20 The proportion of jobs located in a geographic area that are occupied by residents of the same area, relative to the total number of working residents of that area.

Directions 2031 identifies the ‘Connected City’ model as the preferred medium-density future growth scenario for the Perth and Peel regions. The Connected City scenario is expected to deliver improved levels of ESS across the outer sub-regional areas. Due to the concentration of existing commercial and employment centres, the central sub-region has a high level of ESS. While this trend is expected to continue due

Figure 28. Central sub-region local government boundaries


37


to the current levels of investment in the sub-region, to support the achievement of the outer sub-region ESS targets, the ESS of the central sub-region is expected to decline.

Figure 30 summarises the employment requirement for the central sub-region in 2026, based on the Band C population projections contained in WA Tomorrow (2012). Under this scenario, approximately 85,000 additional employment opportunities will be required in the central sub-region by 2026 to maintain the existing ESS of 122%. Of this additional employment, approximately 36,000 jobs will need to be population driven. This reflects an overall fall in the level of population driven employment per resident in the central sub-region, as it is assumed by both Directions 2031 and the employment allocation modelling that this activity will continued to be increasingly decentralised to the outer sub-regions to support the achievement of their ESS targets. The central sub-region will therefore need to attract or generate strategic employment to meet its own ESS target. An estimated 51,500 strategic employment opportunities will be required by 2026.

Figure 30. Central sub-region employment requirements

Characteristic 2011 2026 Difference

Residents 732,828 898,500 +165,672

Labour Force 391,013 463,073 +72,080

Total Jobs 475,141 562,797 +84,131

Population-Driven Jobs 368,244 404,431 +36,187

Strategic Jobs 106,897 158,365 +51,468

Employment Self Sufficiency 122% 122% 0%

Population-Driven Jobs Per Resident

0.50 0.45 -0.05

Source: ABS Census of Population and Housing 2011, Directions 2031 Spatial Framework for Perth and Peel, and Pracsys Analysis 2013

Some recent trends are consistent with these objectives. Between 2006 and 2011 the ESS of the central sub-region fell slightly, from 124% to 122%. This decline was a consequence of higher than expected population growth, and lower than anticipated corresponding increase in the central sub-region employment opportunities. This coincided with an increase in ESS in some outer metropolitan sub-regions and a fall in metropolitan employment self sufficiency as FIFO employment in regional Western Australia increases.

Other recent trends are inconsistent with these objectives. While the levels of population driven employment per capita in the northern outer sub-regions are on the rise, the levels in the southern sub-region remained static or fell from 2006 to 2011, pushing up the levels in the central sub-region. This coincided with a slight increase in the level of population driven employment per capita across the metropolitan area.

Figure 29. Aligning residents and jobs


38


Central to both Directions 2031 and SPP 4.2 is the objective that employment in Perth and Peel is increasingly located in activity centres dispersed across the populated area. Different employment types have different locational requirements and therefore some employment types are more likely than others to develop within activity centres. Based on the employment allocation analysis conducted for this study, an estimated that 84% of total central sub-region employment, or 95% of all net new employment will be located in activity centres at 2026. Figure 31 outlines the activity centre based employment targets for the central sub-region at 2026.

Figure 31. Central sub-region activity centre based employment

Employment Type 2011 Centre Based

Future Centre Based Gap

Consumer and Producer Services 242,665 272,276 +29,612

Knowledge intensive Consumer Services

47,608 54,290 +6,683

Strategic (KIEO) Employment 91,717 135,876 +44,159

Total 381,989 462,443 +80,454

Source: ABS Census of Population and Housing and Pracsys Analysis 2013

6.2.4 Challenges

Beyond current trends, centre growth in the central sub-region is likely to diverge from the Directions 2031 targets due to the prioritisation of major projects by the State Government, as well market demand for natural increases in activity in many other centres across the sub-region. Figure 32 outlines the key projects planned for the central sub-region and the anticipated employment outcomes. If all of these projects reach their employment potential by 2026, the central sub-region will have well exceeded its employment target.

Without additional population growth above what is currently projected in WA Tomorrow, these projects will potentially compromise the ability of the outer sub-regions to achieve their ESS targets21. This highlights the potential future competition for employment both within the central sub-region and between sub-regions. This trend does not necessarily represent a failure of the policy. Currently Directions 2031 seeks to influence the employment side of bringing people and jobs together. The policy objectives can also be met by influencing the residential side. If public and private investment are required or most viable in the central sub-region facilitating additional population in this area, rather than expanding the outer sub-region population, is a valid means of meeting the policy objectives. This means the residential density targets set out in SPP 4.2 for activity centres will become even more important.

Figure 32. Planned central sub-region projects

Centre Additional Jobs

Murdoch Activity Centre 30,000

Curtin University TBA

Perth Airport 6,000

Ashfield Precinct 12,000

Morley City Centre 6,000

Stirling City Centre 20,000

Perth City Link 13,500

Elizabeth Quay 11,000

China Green 2,300

Waterbank TBA

Total 100,800

Source: MRA 2012, Murdoch Activity Centre Structure Plan 2012, Morley Activity Centre Structure Plan 2010, Perth Airport Master Plan, Ashfield Precinct Plan 2010, Stirling City Centre Economic Analysis (Pracsys) 2010

21 Note that these projects also provide for significant residential development. However, this is not accounted for in WA Tomorrow.

39


6.3 BOORAGOON SECONDARY CENTRE EMPLOYMENT

6.3.1 Current Employment

Booragoon Activity Centre currently contains 3,13222 jobs. Employment in the centre boomed between 2001 and 2006 as a consequence of a major development within the centre. Between 2006 and 2011, employment growth was more subdued, growing by 7% compared to 81% for the previous five years (see Figure 33).

Figure 34 shows the 2011 Booragoon employment profile in terms of employment type. Population driven employment is comprised of the lower knowledge consumer and producer services and higher level knowledge intensive consumer services, and strategic employment is comprised of knowledge intensive producer services and export oriented.

Approximately 86% of employment at Booragoon is population driven in nature. Booragoon plays an important role in providing population driven employment opportunities for working residents of the outer southern sub-regions, effectively acting

22 ABS Census of Population and Housing, 2011

as an employment anchor to the central sub-region. Figure 34 illustrates the locations of residence for Booragoon employees.

Strategic employment at Booragoon has historically been anchored by the corporate head office of Alcoa, however in 2008 Alcoa opened the Peel Regional Office and 60 Alcoa staff relocated to Pinjarra from Booragoon.23

Despite this, strategic employment at the centre still grew slightly from 2006 to 2011 as other mining related professional services took up tenancy in the newly available premises.

6.3.2 Future Employment

Booragoon Activity Centre is one of eight designated secondary activity centres in the central sub-region. With this designation comes the requirement to provide to provide a full range of population driven amenity to catchment residents. While secondary centres may mature to provide higher order knowledge intensive export oriented (strategic) employment, this is not the primary function of the centre. Where possible strategic employment should be accommodated in specialised and strategic metropolitan centres.

23 http://www.alcoa.com/australia/en/info_page/peeloffice.asp

Figure 33. Booragoon employment growth (2001-2011)

Source: Pracsys 2013 and ABS Census of Population and Housing, 2011

Figure 34. Booragoon employment profile (2011)

Source: Pracsys 2013 and ABS Census of Population and Housing 2011

40


In the case of Booragoon, the majority of future strategic employment in the surrounding area should be accommodated within Murdoch Specialised Centre or Fremantle Strategic Metropolitan Centre.

Based on the employment allocation analysis conducted, Booragoon needs to generate an additional 300 jobs by 2026 to support the achievement of the Directions 2031 ESS target (see Figure 36). Approximately two thirds of the additional employment will need to strategic in nature.

It is important to note that this target is based on the assumption that the level of population driven employment per capita in the southern sub-regions will increase. If this does not occur, Booragoon will experience greater pressure for growth and development of population driven activity and the population driven employment requirement for Booragoon will increase accordingly.

Figure 35. Movement of people to jobs in the City of Melvile


Figure 36. Booragoon additional employment required (2026)


41


6.4 EMPLOYMENT CONCLUSION

The above employment allocation modelling demonstrates that the planned expansion at Booragoon will provide levels of employment well above the minimum required by Directions 2031. Employment can be split into two types, population-driven and strategic. The type of floorspace provided at Booragoon will provide some indication of the amount of each type of employment likely to locate at Booragoon. Due to the large amount of retail and entertainment floorspace planned, population-driven employment is likely to increase significantly. Strategic employment is more likely to locate in office premises, the new floorspace of which is currently unknown. AMP have indicated a commitment to providing this type of floorspace at Booragoon at levels sufficient to provide the minimum amount of strategic employment.

The current willingness to invest in Booragoon and it’s designation as a Secondary Centre indicates that this is a preferred location from both a developer and a government perspective for both employment and high quality consumer goods and services.

The modelling undertaken in the previous briefing note demonstrated that a high level of latent demand already exists in the area for consumer goods and services, supporting some expansion of the centre. If this expansion is to go ahead the centre will well exceed its employment target, potentially at the cost of other centres achieving their employment targets. If this is to be the case, meeting the goal of Directions 2031 to better align the location of residential development and employment may be better addressed through increasing the population surrounding Booragoon.

It should also be noted that the policy does not provide any guidance on how centres exceeding their employment targets should be dealt with. It appears that there is some endorsement of allowing development to occur where there is a willingness to invest and available land and transport networks allow development to be implemented. The planned development at Murdoch Specialised Centre, China Green, Elizabeth Quay and the Perth City Link are some examples of where this has occurred.

42

7.0

The following conclusions can be made from the structure plan vision:

• The proposed structure plan is expected to result in an activity centre with the capacity to increase the diversity using SPP 4.2 diversity targets, and to significantly increase the diversity using Pracsys' diversity calculations.

• Beyond the increase in retail floorspace, the offer for consumers at the centre is expected to significantly increase from what is currently available, especially in terms of destinations for eating, entertainment, recreation, health, community and office uses. The future tenant mix is expected to provide a range of new reasons for people, especially those residing in the walkable catchment, to visit the centre. The hours of day over which the centre is activated are also expected to increase substantially.

The following conclusions can be made from the retail analysis:

• There is substantial latent demand for goods and services in the Booragoon catchment, with expansions at other activity centres within the activity centres network possible even with an expansion of Garden City Shopping Centre.

• Garden City Shopping centre is currently over-trading, with sufficient demand to support a substantial expansion of floorspace without decreasing turnover into unsustainable ranges.

• An expansion of around 60,000 m2 of retail floorspace at Garden City Shopping Centre is expected to be supportable, and is likely to increase the size of the catchment by increasing the attractiveness of the centre.

• There are expected to be trading impacts on the centres in the surrounding network, but only for the portion of the catchment shared between Booragoon and other centres. The extent of the impact depends on the function of the other centre, the current and projected future trading condition for the other centre, and the distance between Booragoon and the other centre. Centres that are expected to expand during the modelling period are likely to still increase their turnover as the new floorspace makes the centre more attractive.

• The unique function of Booragoon in the southern part of the central sub-region as a regional high-quality comparison retail destination differentiates it from the surrounding activity centres in the network. It is expected that many trips generated by the centre will be for the purpose of this type of retail shopping, with only three other alternative destinations in Perth (Karrinyup Secondary Centre, Claremont Secondary Centre and Perth CBD). Expanding this function at Booragoon is expected to prevent leakage to outside the Perth Metropolitan Region to the eastern states and overseas via online retail.

7 CONCLUSION

43


The following conclusions can be made from the employment analysis:

• The proposed expansion of Garden City Shopping Centre is expected to result in employment provided above the Directions 2031 implied target for the activity centre.

• The proposed land uses and floorspace capacity in the structure plan are expected to result in employment provided far above the Directions 2031 implied targets for the activity centre.

44

A1

8.1 METHODOLOGY

Gravity models allow for the measurement of spatial interaction as a function of distance to determine the probability of a given customer patronising a centre and provide an approximation of trade area and sales potential for a development. This modelling technique uses the distance between a household and each centre, and a measure of ‘attractiveness’ to define the probability model. The ‘attractiveness’ of a centre has been defined by total floor space and the distance has been calculated by measuring straight-line distances between each centre and population.

In its core form gravity modelling provides a clearer, reproducible outcome that can be easily assessed. However it does not consider local factors, including:

• The comparative value proposition of centres (e.g. the presence of an ‘anchor’ attractor that draws significant market share)

• The brand preference of users

• The efficiency of transport networks (e.g. in some cases it may be easier for customers to access a centre that lies physically further away)

The comparative value proposition must be acknowledged in the case of Garden City, due to its unique tenancy mix and the fact that it currently trades well above, in turnover measures, what is usual for a centre of its size. As such for the purpose of modelling we have introduced a floor-space premium designed to accurately portray the comparative advantage enjoyed by Garden City relative to other centres.

8.2 ASSUMPTIONS

The assumptions made in the creation of the model can be broadly split into three categories:

• Central assumptions

• Model-specific assumptions

• Scenario-specific assumptions

Central and model specific assumptions are detailed below. Scenario specific assumptions are detailed within the results of each scenario. Note that no constraint for transport access/parking has been allowed for as we have assumed that all parking/public transport issues will be resolved.

8.2.1 Central Assumptions

The following central assumptions underpin the market potential analysis and have been applied to all scenarios. The extent to which these assumptions hold true will affect the validity of the results. These assumptions are:

• The model has been split into three separate versions to ensure a more accurate portrayal of spending patterns

• A leakage component from online retail has been applied to the retail side of the model accounting for 5% per year for convenience retail and 15% per year for comparison retail

• The income profile of the catchment is as follows and is assumed to remain constant throughout the modelling period:

o First Quintile - 12%

o Second Quintile - 23%

o Third Quintile – 15%

APPENDIX 1: RETAIL MODELLING

45


o Fourth Quintile – 34%

o Fifth Quintile - 17%

• There is an expenditure escalation of 1% which accounts for the retail growth over population growth. In addition to this there are population driven expenditure increases that average 1.4% per annum

Figure 38 shows the exponents and constants used in the modelling. Cumulatively these values determine how distance alters the propensity to spend at Garden City.

The modelling spans a five-year period. Modelling beyond this timespan will give results that are less likely to be reliable as many of the assumptions may no longer hold true after this time period.

Figure 38. Exponents and constants

Inertia Constant 0

Area Exponent 2

Distance Exponent 1


8.2.2 Model-Specific Assumptions

The model-specific assumptions relate to the types of floorspace modelled. These are as follows:

• The ratio of convenience to comparison floorspace at Garden City was determined by a count of shops in both comparison and convenience categories, as well as available floorspace data

• Floorspace ratios for larger centres such as Carousel were determined using the same methodology to those for Garden City

• Sub-regional and regional centres convenience and comparison floorspace ratios were determined by benchmarking

• All centres below 1000 m2 were assumed to be 100% convenience

46

A2

9.1 PRINCIPLES

There are a number of principles which are central to the development of the methodology for the employment allocation modelling. These are:

• Employment self sufficiency and self containment

• Employment quality

• Activity centre maturity

• Employment gravity

• Strategic employment

• Population-driven employment

9.1.1 Employment Self Sufficiency

Employment self sufficiency (ESS) and employment self containment (ESC) are important measures of economic sustainability because they show how a location can generate sufficient jobs to cater for the employment needs of the residential population – in industries that earn sufficient export income to sustain the local retail/consumer-services economy for the benefit of residents.

9.1.2 Employment Quality

The two main drivers of our collective standard of living are how and where we work and reside. Of the principles put forward in Directions 2031, a priority must be strategies that deliver local jobs. A fundamental challenge as we enter into an information-based economy is that a greater proportion of the population is moving into knowledge-intensive occupations that are less transactional in nature. By contrast the employment profiles of many of Perth’s activity centres (particularly those in the

middle and outer sub-regions) are proving to be dominated by retail and consumer services (transactional based) activity. The result is an erosion of the variety of industry types and occupations, resulting in a mono-cultural retail and consumer services employment base in the middle and outer sub-regions, with knowledge intensive export oriented employment centralised within the inner sub-region. Consequently, residents are forced to commute outside their sub-region to access high quality employment.

Improving the employment quality of the outer sub-regions is necessary to lift the employment self-sufficiency and self-containment of each sub-region to a sustainable level (economically, environmentally and socially).

In defining employment quality it is necessary to distinguish between activities (and their resulting employment) that are population-driven; and those that are KIEO in nature. Population driven employment includes areas such as retail, consumer services and basic producer services. These can be found in various configurations in commercial/retail centres (e.g. regional shopping centres), institutional centres (e.g. acute care hospitals, teaching universities); and so-called industrial centres (e.g. regional industrial centres).

In essence, population driven activity will exist to a large extent with the introduction of a population. This type of employment can be maximised through economic activation, but for the large part requires little planning beyond basic spatial allocation.

KIEO employment refers to high-quality knowledge-intensive jobs where the application or creation of knowledge opens

APPENDIX 2: EMPLOYMENT ANALYSIS

47


up global markets for local outputs (e.g. ‘driver’ export industries, legal and financial services, technology research and development). A lack of attention to the development of this type of employment outside the Perth Central Area has manifested itself in the current disparity of employment within the sub-regions. Low employment self-sufficiency and self-containment are symptoms of such trends.

9.1.3 Activity Centre Maturity

The economic maturity of a centre is defined by the quality, not quantity, of activity. Immature centres are those typified by low productivity population-driven activity whilst mature centres are characterised by high productivity activity, ‘creating’ wealth through the export of goods or services. Figure 39 shows the matrix outlining the four degrees of activity centre maturity.

An immature population driven centre, services the basic consumer/producer needs of its catchment. Characterised by low concentrations of KICS and strategic employment, these centres require either an increasing catchment or increasing expenditure levels to drive growth. Eventually growth will be constrained as either market forces limit growth or statutory controls limit specific land-uses (in particular retail).

A diverse population driven centre services both the basic consumer/producer needs and the high level consumer needs of its catchment. Characterised by high concentrations of KICS and low concentrations of strategic employment, maturation to a diverse population driven level occurs as a result of a combination of consumption–based growth and a shift in focus to intensity, diversity, employment and connectivity.

A diverse strategic centre services the high level consumer/producer needs of its catchment. Through the creation and export of goods and services, these centres provide economic leadership for the urban environment, attracting wealth and providing resilient support to the city. Some centres achieve this level of maturity through the benefit of natural competitive advantages. Others need to develop it through targeted initiatives that support knowledge creation, innovation systems, technology and commercial development and efficient supply chains.

Specialised strategic centres are characterised by high levels of strategic employment and low levels of KICS employment. Like diverse strategic centres, some achieve this level of maturity through the benefit of natural

Figure 39. Activity centre maturity matrix


48


competitive advantages. Others need to develop it through targeted initiatives that support knowledge creation, innovation systems, technology and commercial development and efficient supply chains.

The target maturity level for a centre must be considered in the context of the Activity Centres Policy. Not all centres are required to reach the highest level of maturity. For secondary centres and below, maturation beyond a diverse population driven level is unnecessary and in most cases undesirable as it would detract from the growth and maturation of higher order centres. Furthermore, different types of centres will follow different maturation paths. Industrial centres will typically mature from an immature population driven centre to a specialised strategic centre as it is not the function of industrial centres to provide knowledge intensive consumer services. In contrast, commercial centres will typically mature from immature population driven to diverse population driven and ultimately diverse strategic centres.

The Perth activity centres in the outer sub-regions are most often immature population driven centres. More mature and diverse centres lie within the central sub-region, having matured over decades and benefiting from the effective density of a city’s centralised employment characteristics. In order to achieve the employment self sufficiency targets set for the outer sub-regions, activity centres in these sub-regions will have to mature faster than the natural rate which will require a targeted effort from both the private and public sector.

9.1.4 Employment Gravity

Gravity modelling is a modified version of Issac Newton’s Law of Gravitation that can be used to predict the movement of people, information and commodities between geographic locations. The theory holds that the attraction between two objects is proportional to their mass (i.e. larger, denser places are more attractive to people, ideas and commodities than smaller places) and inversely proportional to their respective distance (i.e. places in close proximity have a greater attraction).

Applied to the employment challenge of the north west sub-region, gravity modelling has been used to predict the distribution of employment to the activity centres network. As different types of employment have different drivers and different location requirements, two different variations of the gravity model have been adopted.

9.1.5 Population Driven Employment

Population driven employment develops in direct response to population growth, as such its location will be largely determined by the location of population growth, as well as centre hierarchy levels and maturity. The attractiveness of a centre (i) to the jobs required for a population (j) is determined by the formula following.

Once applied to all centres and all units of population, the probability of the population driven jobs required for a local population, being located at each centre can be determined.

49


9.1.6 Strategic Employment

The location decisions of strategic industries are more complex. Rather than being driven by population growth, they are determined by a range of other factors such as agglomeration economies. Agglomeration economies are powerful forces that help explain the positive externalities that are generated from the “clustering” of economic activity. Agglomeration economies can cause a location with some small comparative advantage to become a place with a large concentration of diverse activity. While some small comparative advantage (such as population driven amenity, availability of land or proximity to value chains) initially attracts businesses and households to the location, this original group then becomes the factor that attracts other businesses and households to that location. There are three

main reasons why firms would choose to locate in close proximity to other firms in the same industry:

• Forward and backward linkages - geographic proximity of customers (forward linkages) and of suppliers (backward linkages)

• Knowledge spillover – geographic proximity facilitates the transfer of knowledge

• Labour market pooling - concentration of related firms generates a pool of specialised labour

The effect of agglomeration economies is reflected in the gravity model, with strategic employment more likely to develop or relocate to areas with existing strategic agglomerations. The attractiveness of strategic jobs to a centre (i) from centre (k) is determined by the formula following.

Figure 40. Population-driven employment gravity

Figure 41. Strategic employment gravity

50


Once applied to all centres, the probability of strategic employment located at each centre can be determined.

9.2 METHODOLOGY

The new activity centre policy (SPP 4.2) requires that evidence of overall centre performance be presented on a range of dimensions including centre diversity, activity intensity, accessibility and employment. In particular, the SPP 4.2 requires that employment outcomes are achieved by centre developments to drive the ‘suburbanisation’ of jobs in line with the sub-regional self-sufficiency targets set out in Directions 2031. This link between sub-regional outcomes and individual centre planning is a new and important feature of the planning environment.

The approach adopted consisted of four stages, which were as follows.

Stage 1: Sub-Region Targets

Based on the expressed population, housing and employment profile in Directions 2031, the population driven and strategic employment growth required to achieve the employment self sufficiency targets were determined.

Stage 2: Activity Centres Network Target

The quantity of population driven and strategic employment to be developed within the sub-region’s activity centre network was determined, with consideration for trends.

Stage 3: Model Development

Applying the principles of employment gravity, an employment allocation model was developed for the central sub-region.

Stage 4: Scenario Development

Using the employment allocation model, scenarios were developed for the future development of the activity centres network in the central sub-region in the context of the identified opportunities and constraints.

9.3 ASSUMPTIONS

Quantitative economic analysis relies upon certain assumptions about the variables used in the analysis. The extent to which these assumptions hold true in the market, will affect the validity of the results. The following general assumptions underpin the employment allocation analysis for the central sub-region.

9.3.1 Employment Quality

An indicator of the adequacy of a sub-region’s ability to service its catchment population is the calculation of the ratio of population-driven employment to sub-region population. In the case of the central sub-region the ratio is 0.50 population-driven jobs per resident. Given objectives of Directions 2031 performance of the sub-region, it was assumed that the level of population driven employment per resident would decrease to 0.45 jobs per resident by 2026.

9.3.2 Centre-based Employment

Centre based employment refers to employment in both retail activity centres and industrial centres. Currently an estimated 80% of the employment in the central sub-region is located within Activity Centres. The balance is comprised of:

• Home-based business

51


• Other decentralised employment such as schools

Different employment types have different locational requirements and therefore some employment types are more likely than others to develop within activity centres. For the purposes of this analysis it was assumed that the proportion of strategic employment located in activity centres will remain constant. However the proportion of knowledge intensive consumer services employment located in centres is assumed to increase to 75 per cent. Similarly, the proportion of consumer and producer services located in centres will increase to 82 per cent. Overall the proportion of employment located in centres is assumed to increase to 82 per cent in the period to 2026, consistent with the objectives of Directions 2031 and SPP 4.2.

9.3.3 Centre Types

For the purpose of this analysis it has been assumed that employment is not transferrable between centres of different types. For example employment allocated to a commercial centre cannot be reallocated to an industrial centre and vice versa. While there are some employment types that could locate in either type of centre, these are the exception rather than the norm. The implication of this is that the employment profile of the sub-region will remain skewed toward the development of commercial type activity centres.

9.3.4 Other

In addition to the above, many assumptions have been made throughout the analytical process regarding the maturity and scale of individual centres. As such, it is important to

note that employment allocations detailed within this report represent only a few of many alternatives for how the employment targets for the sub-region may be achieved in the network of activity centres, and, given a different set of assumptions the resulting allocation may be quite different. The purpose of this modelling is to provide an insight into the implications and consequences of alternative interventions and therefore it is important that modelling is regularly reviewed and updated and the stakeholders continue to provide up to date information to ensure the assumptions hold true.

52

A3

APPENDIX 3: PRACSYS METRICS THEORY

The four metrics used in this report to provide an assessment of current and future activity centre performance for Booragoon have been developed to show progress towards the goals of Directions 2031 and SPP 4.2, as well as assess broad criteria required for economic success. The metrics assess activity centre strengths and weaknesses, and provide guidance for developers and government authorities on potential paths to long-term success.

10.1 PRACSYS DIVERSITY METRIC

Activity centre diversity is considered highly important to the SPP 4.2 goals of reducing the overall need to travel, and supporting the use of public transport, cycling and walking for access to services, facilities and employment. Research has demonstrated that diversity of land uses, along with density and urban form aspects have significant relationships with travel mode for work and shopping trips. For example, land use diversity in combination with density has been shown to have a positive relationship with walking and transit, and a negative relationship with single occupant vehicle usage24.

The diversity metric has been produced to provide an alternative measurement of activity centre diversity to that set out in SPP 4.2. The Pracsys diversity metric measures the total diversity in floorspace using a combination of the SPP 4.2 diversity ratio and Shannon’s Equitability Index, also known as an Entropy Index. Both metrics use the WAPC Planning Land Use Categories (PLUC) to classify floorspace so are still limited by the broadness of the PLUC definitions.

24 (Frank and Pivo 1994)

Originally developed in 1963, Shannon’s Equitability Index has been extensively in biological research as a measure of plant or animal species25. More recently, the formula has been applied to other fields including measuring diversity of land uses in land use planning26. The index measures both richness and evenness of the species or land use.

10.2 PRACSYS INTENSITY METRIC

Activity intensity, like diversity, is also important to the SPP 4.2 goals of reducing the overall need to travel, and supporting the use of public transport, cycling and walking for access to services, facilities and employment27. High levels of activity intensity are necessary for vibrant, walkable centres and to facilitate economic activation of tenancies and social interaction. Highly intense centres are more likely to support walking and public transport use rather than car use as a means of access. Intense agglomerations of activity have also been shown to increase industry productivity.

There are a number of different ways to measure activity intensity, which include population density, dwelling density, employment density, and floorspace quantum. SPP 4.2 provides residential density targets for the walkable catchment around activity centres, but does not require measurements of other aspects of activity intensity.

The Pracsys intensity metric used both residential density and employment density to measure intensity. This provides a more balanced metric, providing information about the possible interactions between the

25 (Shannon and Weaver 1963), (Tramer 1969)26 (Frank and Pivo 1994), (Manaugh and Kreider 2013)27 (Cervero and Kockelman 1997)(Frank and Pivo 1994)

53


catchment population and the activity within the centre.

10.3 PRACSYS EMPLOYMENT METRIC

Activity centres require both a quantity and a quality of employment, as befits their position in the hierarchy. Directions 2031 requires some assessment of employment quantity in order to report of the employment self-sufficiency targets. However, there is no consideration of employment quality, or the level of knowledge required to undertake any type of employment, in Directions 2031 or SPP 4.2. However, high quality employment drives economic development beyond that driven by population growth, and facilitate higher levels of employment self-sufficiency.

The Pracsys employment metric considers both employment quality and employment quantity. This allows a better understanding of the current and likely future functions of an activity centre.

10.4 PRACSYS ACCESSIBILITY METRIC

Centres must be accessible to a wide mix of user groups utilising different modes of transport. This reduces the impact of petrol price shocks, increases sustainable centre catchments and facilitates movement and knowledge transfer between employment nodes.

To gain a better understanding of the implications of accessibility for the future development of activity centres, the Pracsys accessibility metric considers the transport infrastructure and connectivity to the nearest CBD.

54

A4

Figure 42. Main trade area dwelling assumptions - Primary Catchment

Suburb 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Ardross 1,725 1,803 1,882 1,960 2,033 2,092 2,150 2,209 2,268 2,327

Applecross 3,036 3,095 3,157 3,216 3,266 3,284 3,303 3,321 3,340 3,359

Booragoon 2,479 2,489 2,494 2,502 2,514 2,627 2,740 2,853 2,966 3,080

Myaree 905 912 919 925 930 936 941 946 951 957

Alfred Cove 984 990 995 1,001 1,006 1,010 1,015 1,019 1,024 1,028

Brentwood 907 911 913 915 920 925 930 935 941 946

Mount Pleasant 2,892 2,903 2,910 2,919 2,933 2,949 2,966 2,982 2,999 3,016

Source: Pracsys 2013; WA Tomorrow; Forecast i.d.

Figure 43. Main trade area dwelling assumptions - Secondary South Catchment

Suburb 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Bateman 1,392 1,437 1,447 1,453 1,460 1,468 1,476 1,484 1,492 1,501

Willagee 2,195 2,213 2,229 2,241 2,251 2,264 2,277 2,289 2,302 2,315

Kardinya 3,563 3,604 3,651 3,699 3,745 3,766 3,787 3,808 3,829 3,851

Winthrop 2,106 2,113 2,121 2,129 2,138 2,150 2,162 2,174 2,186 2,199

Murdoch 1,289 1,304 1,321 1,338 1,355 1,588 1,821 2,053 2,286 2,519


Figure 44. Main trade area dwelling assumptions - Secondary West Catchment

Suburb 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Palmyra 3,381 3,396 3,411 3,423 3,433 3,453 3,472 3,491 3,511 3,530

Melville 2,236 2,253 2,269 2,286 2,298 2,311 2,324 2,337 2,350 2,363

Attadale 2,496 2,515 2,533 2,552 2,565 2,580 2,594 2,609 2,623 2,638

Bicton 2,980 2,993 3,007 3,017 3,026 3,043 3,060 3,077 3,094 3,112

East Fremantle 3,113 3,144 3,175 3,207 3,239 3,293 3,348 3,403 3,459 3,515

O’Connor 162 163 165 166 168 171 174 177 180 182

White Gum Valley 1,315 1,328 1,341 1,355 1,368 1,391 1,414 1,438 1,461 1,485


APPENDIX 4: MAIN TRADE AREA ASSUMPTIONS

55


Figure 45. Main trade area dwelling assumptions - Secondary East Catchment

Suburb 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Bullcreek 3,002 3,004 3,009 3,013 3,016 3,033 3,050 3,067 3,085 3,102

Leeming 4,003 4,007 4,019 4,030 4,045 4,068 4,090 4,113 4,136 4,159

Shelley 1,769 1,786 1,804 1,822 1,840 1,871 1,902 1,933 1,965 1,997

Rossmoyne 1,287 1,300 1,313 1,326 1,339 1,361 1,384 1,407 1,430 1,453

Source: Pracsys 2013; WA Tomorrow

Figure 46. Main trade area dwelling assumptions - Secondary North West Catchment

Suburb 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

South Perth 6,599 6,658 6,711 6,752 6,806 6,919 7,034 7,150 7,268 7,385

Como 7,298 7,364 7,423 7,468 7,527 7,652 7,779 7,908 8,038 8,168

Salter Point 989 998 1,006 1,012 1,020 1,037 1,054 1,071 1,089 1,107

Manning 1,688 1,704 1,717 1,727 1,741 1,770 1,800 1,829 1,859 1,889


Figure 47. Main trade area dwelling assumptions - Tertiary South West Catchment

Suburb 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Hamilton Hill 4,754 4,897 4,995 5,095 5,197 5,283 5,371 5,460 5,549 5,639

Coolbellup 2,415 2,488 2,538 2,588 2,640 2,684 2,728 2,774 2,819 2,865

Spearwood 4,058 4,179 4,263 4,348 4,435 4,509 4,584 4,660 4,736 4,812

South Fremantle 1,292 1,305 1,318 1,331 1,344 1,367 1,389 1,412 1,435 1,459

Beaconsfield 1,957 1,977 1,997 2,017 2,037 2,071 2,105 2,140 2,175 2,210

Hilton 1,076 1,086 1,097 1,108 1,119 1,138 1,157 1,176 1,195 1,215

Yangebup 2,809 2,893 2,951 3,010 3,070 3,122 3,173 3,226 3,279 3,332

Coogee 1,635 1,684 1,718 1,752 1,787 1,817 1,847 1,878 1,908 1,939

North Coogee 296 305 311 317 323 329 334 340 345 351

Munster 1,438 1,481 1,511 1,541 1,572 1,598 1,625 1,652 1,679 1,706

Samson 1,185 1,197 1,209 1,221 1,233 1,253 1,274 1,295 1,316 1,338


56


Figure 48. Main trade area dwelling assumptions - Tertiary South Catchment

Suburb 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Cockburn Central 320 330 336 343 350 356 362 368 374 380

North Lake 479 494 504 514 524 533 542 551 560 569

Bibra Lake 1,793 1,847 1,884 1,922 1,960 1,993 2,026 2,059 2,093 2,127

Jandakot 942 971 990 1,010 1,030 1,048 1,065 1,083 1,100 1,118

Atwell 2,958 3,047 3,108 3,170 3,233 3,287 3,341 3,397 3,453 3,508

Banjup 480 495 505 515 525 534 543 552 561 570

Success 3,256 3,354 3,421 3,489 3,559 3,618 3,678 3,739 3,800 3,862

Aubin Grove 1,569 1,616 1,648 1,681 1,715 1,743 1,772 1,802 1,831 1,861

Piara Waters 1,124 1,157 1,192 1,228 1,265 1,286 1,307 1,329 1,351 1,372

South Lake 2,719 2,801 2,857 2,914 2,972 3,022 3,072 3,123 3,174 3,225


Figure 49. Main trade area dwelling assumptions - Tertiary East Catchment

Suburb 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Willeton 6,424 6,488 6,553 6,618 6,684 6,796 6,908 7,023 7,138 7,253

Canning Vale 13,140 13,272 13,404 13,538 13,674 13,901 14,131 14,366 14,601 14,837

Huntingdale 3,133 3,196 3,247 3,280 3,313 3,368 3,423 3,480 3,537 3,594

Parkwood 2,401 2,425 2,449 2,474 2,498 2,540 2,582 2,625 2,668 2,711

Harrisdale 1,445 1,488 1,533 1,579 1,626 1,654 1,681 1,709 1,737 1,765

Champion Lakes 291 300 309 319 328 334 339 345 350 356

Seville Grove 3,372 3,473 3,578 3,685 3,795 3,859 3,922 3,988 4,053 4,118

Camillo 1,861 1,917 1,975 2,034 2,095 2,130 2,165 2,201 2,237 2,273


Figure 50. Main trade area dwelling assumptions - Tertiary North West Catchment

Suburb 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Fremantle 4467 4512 4557 4603 4649 4726 4804 4884 4964 5044

North Fremantle 1497 1512 1527 1542 1558 1584 1610 1636 1663 1690

Mosmon Park 4190 4232 4274 4317 4360 4433 4506 4581 4656 4731

Dalkeith 1581 1587 1587 1594 1594 1620 1647 1674 1702 1729

Peppermint Grove 491 496 500 505 511 519 528 536 545 554

Cottosloe 3435 3435 3435 3469 3469 3527 3585 3645 3705 3765

Claremont 3796 3834 3834 3834 3834 3898 3962 4028 4094 4160

Nedlands 4069 4085 4085 4102 4102 4170 4239 4309 4380 4451


57


Figure 51. Main trade area household expenditure assumptions (comparison retail)

YearIncome Quintile

Lowest Second Third Fourth Highest All households

2013 $5,784.48 $9,433.84 $13,382.72 $18,543.20 $29,585.40 $15,342.60

2014 $5,842.32 $9,528.18 $13,516.55 $18,728.63 $29,881.25 $15,496.03

2015 $5,900.75 $9,623.46 $13,651.71 $18,915.92 $30,180.07 $15,650.99

2016 $5,959.76 $9,719.69 $13,788.23 $19,105.08 $30,481.87 $15,807.50

2017 $6,019.35 $9,816.89 $13,926.11 $19,296.13 $30,786.69 $15,965.57

2018 $6,079.55 $9,915.06 $14,065.37 $19,489.09 $31,094.55 $16,125.23

2019 $6,140.34 $10,014.21 $14,206.03 $19,683.98 $31,405.50 $16,286.48

2020 $6,201.75 $10,114.35 $14,348.09 $19,880.82 $31,719.55 $16,449.34

2021 $6,263.76 $10,215.50 $14,491.57 $20,079.63 $32,036.75 $16,613.84

2022 $6,326.40 $10,317.65 $14,636.48 $20,280.42 $32,357.12 $16,779.98

Source: Pracsys 2013; ABS Household Expenditure Survey 2011

Figure 52. Main trade area household expenditure assumptions (convenience retail)

YearIncome Quintile

Lowest Second Third Fourth Highest All households

2013 $8,398.00 $12,372.36 $16,868.80 $19,549.40 $25,089.48 $16,450.72

2014 $8,481.98 $12,496.08 $17,037.49 $19,744.89 $25,340.37 $16,615.23

2015 $8,566.80 $12,621.04 $17,207.86 $19,942.34 $25,593.78 $16,781.38

2016 $8,652.47 $12,747.25 $17,379.94 $20,141.77 $25,849.72 $16,949.19

2017 $8,738.99 $12,874.73 $17,553.74 $20,343.18 $26,108.21 $17,118.69

2018 $8,826.38 $13,003.47 $17,729.28 $20,546.62 $26,369.30 $17,289.87

2019 $8,914.65 $13,133.51 $17,906.57 $20,752.08 $26,632.99 $17,462.77

2020 $9,003.79 $13,264.84 $18,085.64 $20,959.60 $26,899.32 $17,637.40

2021 $9,093.83 $13,397.49 $18,266.49 $21,169.20 $27,168.31 $17,813.77

2022 $9,184.77 $13,531.47 $18,449.16 $21,380.89 $27,439.99 $17,991.91

Source: Pracsys 2013; ABS Household Expenditure Survey 2011

58


59

A5

Figure 54. List of all activity centres included in floorspace supply assumptions

Activity Centre 2012 (m2)

2013 (m2)

2014 (m2)

2015 (m2)

2016 (m2)

2017 (m2)

2018 (m2)

2019 (m2)

2020 (m2)

2021 (m2)

2022 (m2)

ADVENTURE WORLD 705 705 705 705 705 705 705 705 705 705 705

ANCHORAGE 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300

ANDREA WAY 44 44 44 44 44 44 44 44 44 44 44

ANGELO STREET 3,816 3,816 3,816 3,816 3,816 3,816 3,816 3,816 3,816 3,816 3,816

APPLECROSS 3,802 3,802 3,802 3,802 3,802 3,802 3,802 3,802 3,802 3,802 3,802

ARALUEN 280 280 280 280 280 280 280 280 280 280 280

ARCHIBALD ST 244 244 244 244 244 244 244 244 244 244 244

ARMADALE 2,034 2,034 2,034 2,034 2,034 2,034 2,034 2,034 2,034 2,034 2,034

ARMADALE GC 140 140 140 140 140 140 140 140 140 140 140

ARMADALE HIGH SCHOOL 190 190 190 190 190 190 190 190 190 190 190

ARMADALE ISOLATED USES 2,990 2,990 2,990 2,990 2,990 2,990 2,990 2,990 2,990 2,990 2,990

ARMADALE T CENTRE 54,476 54,476 54,476 54,476 54,476 54,476 54,476 54,476 54,476 54,476 54,476

ARMSTRONG RD 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200

ASQUITH STREET 701 701 701 701 701 701 701 701 701 701 701

ATTADALE 1,005 1,005 1,005 1,005 1,005 1,005 1,005 1,005 1,005 1,005 1,005

ATWELL 2,841 2,841 2,841 2,841 2,841 2,841 2,841 2,841 2,841 2,841 2,841

BARBICAN STREET 779 779 779 779 779 779 779 779 779 779 779

BARKER AVENUE 362 362 362 362 362 362 362 362 362 362 362

BATEMAN VILLAGE 396 396 396 396 396 396 396 396 396 396 396

BAWDON 180 180 180 180 180 180 180 180 180 180 180

BELLAMY ST 1,863 1,863 1,863 1,863 1,863 1,863 1,863 1,863 1,863 1,863 1,863

BELMONT PARK - - - - - 15,500 15,500 15,500 15,500 16,190 16,880

BENTLEY 23,757 23,757 23,757 23,757 23,757 23,757 23,757 23,757 23,757 23,757 23,757

BERRIGAN DRIVE 2,496 2,496 2,496 2,496 2,496 2,496 2,496 2,496 2,496 2,496 2,496

BIBRA 42,278 42,278 42,278 42,278 42,278 42,278 42,278 42,278 42,278 42,278 42,278

BIBRA LAKE 975 975 975 975 975 975 975 975 975 975 975

BIRDWOOD AVENUE 1,200 1,200 1,200 1,200 1,200 1,200 1,200 1,200 1,200 1,200 1,200

BRENTWOOD 1,510 1,510 1,510 1,510 1,510 1,510 1,510 1,510 1,510 1,510 1,510

BRISTOL AVE 745 745 745 745 745 745 745 745 745 745 745

BROADWAY 4,250 4,250 4,250 4,250 4,250 4,250 4,250 4,250 4,250 4,250 4,250

BROOKTON HWY 230 230 230 230 230 230 230 230 230 230 230

BULL CREEK 13,894 13,894 13,894 13,894 13,894 13,894 13,894 13,894 13,894 13,894 13,894

CANNING BRIDGE 5,424 5,424 5,424 5,424 5,424 5,424 5,424 5,424 5,424 5,424 5,424

APPENDIX 5: FLOORSPACE SUPPLY ASSUMPTIONS

60



2013 (m2)

2014 (m2)

2015 (m2)

2016 (m2)

2017 (m2)

2018 (m2)

2019 (m2)

2020 (m2)

2021 (m2)

2022 (m2)

CANNING CENTRAL CITY 113,646 113,646 113,646 113,646 113,646 113,646 113,646 113,646 113,646 113,646 113,646

CANNING VALE 1,100 1,100 1,100 1,100 1,100 1,100 1,100 1,100 1,100 1,100 1,100

CANNING VALE 70,932 70,932 70,932 70,932 70,932 70,932 70,932 70,932 70,932 70,932 70,932

CANNINGTON 20,562 20,562 20,562 20,562 20,562 20,562 20,562 20,562 20,562 20,562 20,562

CANNINGTON 585 585 585 585 585 585 585 585 585 585 585

CANNINGTON STATION 210 210 210 210 210 210 210 210 210 210 210

CARDIGAN TERRACE 253 253 253 253 253 253 253 253 253 253 253

CARRINGTON ST HH 1,125 1,125 1,125 1,125 1,125 1,125 1,125 1,125 1,125 1,125 1,125

CASTLE HILL 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250

CENTRAL ROAD 1,105 1,105 1,105 1,105 1,105 1,105 1,105 1,105 1,105 1,105 1,105

CHALLIS 400 400 400 400 400 400 400 400 400 400 400

CHAMPION DRIVE 4,495 4,495 4,495 4,495 4,495 4,495 4,495 4,495 4,495 4,495 4,495

CHAPMAN ROAD 1,299 1,299 1,299 1,299 1,299 1,299 1,299 1,299 1,299 1,299 1,299

CITY 1 32,610 32,610 32,610 32,610 32,610 32,610 32,610 32,610 32,610 32,610 32,610

CITY 10 3,812 3,812 3,812 3,812 3,812 3,812 3,812 3,812 3,812 3,812 3,812

CITY 11 - - - - 300 600 900 1,200 1,500 1,800 2,100

CITY 12 1,038 1,038 1,038 1,038 1,038 1,038 1,038 1,038 1,038 1,038 1,038

CITY 13 5,218 5,218 5,218 5,218 5,218 5,218 5,218 5,218 5,218 5,218 5,218

CITY 2 42,371 42,371 42,371 42,371 42,371 42,371 42,371 42,371 42,371 42,371 42,371

CITY 3 4,905 4,905 4,905 4,905 4,905 4,905 4,905 4,905 4,905 4,905 4,905

CITY 4 17,156 17,156 17,156 17,921 18,687 19,452 20,218 20,983 21,749 22,514 23,280

CITY 5 132,006 132,006 132,006 132,006 132,006 132,006 132,006 132,006 132,006 132,006 132,006

CITY 6 7,352 7,352 7,352 11,077 14,802 18,527 22,252 25,977 29,702 33,427 37,152

CITY 7 6,738 6,738 6,738 6,738 6,738 6,738 6,738 6,738 6,738 6,738 6,738

CITY 8 10,743 10,743 10,743 10,743 10,743 10,743 10,743 10,743 10,743 10,743 10,743

CITY 9 3,552 3,552 3,552 3,552 3,552 3,552 3,552 3,552 3,552 3,552 3,552

CLAREMONT 420 420 420 420 420 420 420 420 420 420 420

CLAREMONT NTH 1,503 1,503 1,503 1,503 1,503 1,503 1,503 1,503 1,503 1,503 1,503

CLAREMONT STH 550 550 550 550 550 550 550 550 550 550 550

CLAREMONT TOWN CENTRE 26,224 26,224 26,224 26,224 26,224 26,224 26,224 26,224 26,224 26,224 26,224

CLIFFE STREET 2,868 2,868 2,868 2,868 2,868 2,868 2,868 2,868 2,868 2,868 2,868

COCKBURN ISOLATED USES 1,025 1,025 1,025 1,025 1,025 1,025 1,025 1,025 1,025 1,025 1,025

COCKBURN LIQUOR 750 750 750 750 750 750 750 750 750 750 750

COCKBURN PP 144 144 144 144 144 144 144 144 144 144 144

COLLIER TECH PARK 2 400 400 400 400 400 400 400 400 400 400 400

61



2013 (m2)

2014 (m2)

2015 (m2)

2016 (m2)

2017 (m2)

2018 (m2)

2019 (m2)

2020 (m2)

2021 (m2)

2022 (m2)

COMER STREET 85 85 85 85 85 85 85 85 85 85 85

COMO HOTEL 506 506 506 506 506 506 506 506 506 506 506

CONNELL AVE 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100

COODE/STH TERRACE 698 698 698 698 698 698 698 698 698 698 698

COOLBELUP 2,936 2,936 2,936 2,936 2,936 2,936 2,936 2,936 2,936 2,936 2,936

COOPER STREET 1,716 1,716 1,716 1,716 1,716 1,716 1,716 1,716 1,716 1,716 1,716

COTTESLOE - ISO USES 1,365 1,365 1,365 1,365 1,365 1,365 1,365 1,365 1,365 1,365 1,365

COTTESLOE BEACH 906 906 906 906 906 906 906 906 906 906 906

COTTESLOE GC 375 375 375 375 375 375 375 375 375 375 375

COTTESLOE TOWN CENTRE 17,575 17,575 17,575 17,575 17,575 17,575 17,575 17,575 17,575 17,575 17,575

CROYDEN STREET 155 155 155 155 155 155 155 155 155 155 155

DALKEITH ROAD 3,760 3,760 3,760 3,760 3,760 3,760 3,760 3,760 3,760 3,760 3,760

DAVID CRUICKSHANK RE 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100

DEEP WATER POINT RES 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250

DOUGLAS AVENUE 594 594 594 594 594 594 594 594 594 594 594

DOURO ROAD 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250

EAST CANNINGTON 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91

EAST FREMANTLE 365 365 365 365 365 365 365 365 365 365 365

EAST FREMANTLE ROS 1,163 1,163 1,163 1,163 1,163 1,163 1,163 1,163 1,163 1,163 1,163

ERIC STREET 239 239 239 239 239 239 239 239 239 239 239

EUREKA ROAD 640 640 640 640 640 640 640 640 640 640 640

F CATHERINE PT RES. 310 310 310 310 310 310 310 310 310 310 310

F COASTAL PARK 120 120 120 120 120 120 120 120 120 120 120

FARRINGTON 2,656 2,656 2,656 2,656 2,656 2,656 2,656 2,656 2,656 2,656 2,656

FLOREAT 75 75 75 75 75 75 75 75 75 75 75

FORREST ROAD 340 340 340 340 340 340 340 340 340 340 340

FRANK GIBSON PARK 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70

FREMANTLE 1,420 1,420 1,420 1,420 1,420 1,420 1,420 1,420 1,420 1,420 1,420

FREMANTLE CITY CENTRE 72,415 62,415 62,415 62,415 62,415 62,415 62,415 62,415 62,415 62,415 62,415

FREMANTLE GC 166 166 166 166 166 166 166 166 166 166 166

FREMANTLE ISOLATED USES 1,759 1,759 1,759 1,759 1,759 1,759 1,759 1,759 1,759 1,759 1,759

FREMANTLE PARK AND TENNIS CLUB 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 80

FREMANTLE PORT 1,410 1,410 1,410 1,410 1,410 1,410 1,410 1,410 1,410 1,410 1,410

FREMANTLE PP 2,516 2,516 2,516 2,516 2,516 2,516 2,516 2,516 2,516 2,516 2,516

62



2013 (m2)

2014 (m2)

2015 (m2)

2016 (m2)

2017 (m2)

2018 (m2)

2019 (m2)

2020 (m2)

2021 (m2)

2022 (m2)

FREMANTLE RAILWAY STATION 120 120 120 120 120 120 120 120 120 120 120

GARDEN CITY 65,979 65,979 65,979 65,979 46,185 46,185 119,999

119,999

119,999

119,999

119,999

GATEWAY 39,513 39,513 39,513 59,513 59,513 59,513 59,513 59,513 59,513 59,513 59,513

GEORGE ST EAST FREM 2,869 2,869 2,869 2,869 2,869 2,869 2,869 2,869 2,869 2,869 2,869

GEORGE ST SOUTH PERTH 597 597 597 597 597 597 597 597 597 597 597

GIBSON ST 190 190 190 190 190 190 190 190 190 190 190

GLEN IRIS COUNTRY CLUB 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200

GLENELG ST 173 173 173 173 173 173 173 173 173 173 173

GLENMOY AVENUE 1,280 1,280 1,280 1,280 1,280 1,280 1,280 1,280 1,280 1,280 1,280

GLYDE STREET 2,152 2,152 2,152 2,152 2,152 2,152 2,152 2,152 2,152 2,152 2,152

GWYNNE PARK 183 183 183 183 183 183 183 183 183 183 183

HAMILTON HILL 12,057 12,057 12,057 12,057 12,057 12,057 12,057 12,057 12,057 12,057 12,057

HAMILTON HILL TAVERN 4,137 4,137 4,137 4,137 4,137 4,137 4,137 4,137 4,137 4,137 4,137

HAMILTON ROAD 900 900 900 900 900 900 900 900 900 900 900

HAMPDEN ROAD 3,666 3,666 3,666 3,666 3,666 3,666 3,666 3,666 3,666 3,666 3,666

HARBOUR 3,509 3,509 3,509 3,509 3,509 3,509 3,509 3,509 3,509 3,509 3,509

HARRISON ST WLLAGEE 141 141 141 141 141 141 141 141 141 141 141

HARVEST LAKES - - - - - 5,100 5,100 5,100 5,100 5,100 5,100

HARVEST RD 4,373 4,373 4,373 4,373 4,373 4,373 4,373 4,373 4,373 4,373 4,373

HENDERSON 2,880 2,880 2,880 2,880 2,880 2,880 2,880 2,880 2,880 2,880 2,880

HENLEY STREET 1,577 1,577 1,577 1,577 1,577 1,577 1,577 1,577 1,577 1,577 1,577

HENSMAN STREET 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100

HERALD AVENUE 29,676 29,676 29,676 29,676 29,676 29,676 29,676 29,676 29,676 29,676 29,676

HIGH RD 278 278 278 278 278 278 278 278 278 278 278

HILLVIEW TERRACE 841 841 841 841 841 841 841 841 841 841 841

HILTON PARK 5,145 5,145 5,145 5,145 5,145 5,145 5,145 5,145 5,145 5,145 5,145

HISLOP RD 2,650 2,650 2,650 2,650 2,650 2,650 2,650 2,650 2,650 2,650 2,650

HOPETOUN TCE 595 595 595 595 595 595 595 595 595 595 595

IRWIN BARRACKS 1,030 1,030 1,030 1,030 1,030 1,030 1,030 1,030 1,030 1,030 1,030

ISOLATED SERVICE STATIONS 2,850 2,850 2,850 2,850 2,850 2,850 2,850 2,850 2,850 2,850 2,850

JANDAKOT AIRPORT 1,961 1,961 1,961 1,961 1,961 1,961 1,961 1,961 1,961 1,961 1,961

JANDAKOT NORTH 480 480 480 480 480 480 480 480 480 480 480

JANDAKOT-E 1,478 1,478 1,478 1,478 1,478 1,478 1,478 1,478 1,478 1,478 1,478

63



2013 (m2)

2014 (m2)

2015 (m2)

2016 (m2)

2017 (m2)

2018 (m2)

2019 (m2)

2020 (m2)

2021 (m2)

2022 (m2)

JANDAKOT-W 2,399 2,399 2,399 2,399 2,399 2,399 2,399 2,399 2,399 2,399 2,399

JOLIMONT 3,219 3,219 3,219 3,219 3,219 3,219 3,219 3,219 3,219 3,219 3,219

JOLIMONT 16,664 16,664 16,664 16,664 16,664 16,664 16,664 16,664 16,664 16,664 16,664

JUDD STREET 701 701 701 701 701 701 701 701 701 701 701

KARAWARA 7,613 7,613 7,613 7,613 7,613 7,613 7,613 7,613 7,613 7,613 7,613

KARDINYA 15,792 15,792 15,792 15,792 15,792 15,792 15,792 15,792 15,792 15,792 15,792

KARRAKATTA 160 160 160 160 160 160 160 160 160 160 160

KELMSCOTT 22,730 22,730 22,730 22,730 22,730 22,730 22,730 22,730 22,730 22,730 22,730

KELMSCOTT CENTRE 18,899 18,899 18,899 18,899 18,899 18,899 18,899 18,899 18,899 18,899 18,899

KELMSCOTT HOTEL 850 850 850 850 850 850 850 850 850 850 850

KINGS PARK 1,365 1,365 1,365 1,365 1,365 1,365 1,365 1,365 1,365 1,365 1,365

LAKE CLAREMONT GC 550 550 550 550 550 550 550 550 550 550 550

LAKES S.C. 7,152 7,152 7,152 7,152 7,152 7,152 7,152 7,152 7,152 7,152 7,152

LAWLER STREET 145 145 145 145 145 145 145 145 145 145 145

LEE 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100

LEEMING PARK 650 650 650 650 650 650 650 650 650 650 650

LEFROY RD 137 137 137 137 137 137 137 137 137 137 137

LEIGHTON BEACH 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 80

LETCHWORTH AVENUE 155 155 155 155 155 155 155 155 155 155 155

LEY STREET 1,050 1,050 1,050 1,050 1,050 1,050 1,050 1,050 1,050 1,050 1,050

LIVINGSTON 14,285 14,285 14,285 14,285 14,285 14,285 14,285 14,285 14,285 14,285 14,285

LOCH STREET 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70

LYNWOOD AVENUE 2,961 2,961 2,961 2,961 2,961 2,961 2,961 2,961 2,961 2,961 2,961

MANNING HOTEL 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150

MANNING PARK 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21

MANNING ROAD 1,010 1,010 1,010 1,010 1,010 1,010 1,010 1,010 1,010 1,010 1,010

MARINE TCE 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 80

MARINE TCE FREM 2,692 2,692 2,692 2,692 2,692 2,692 2,692 2,692 2,692 2,692 2,692

MARMION ST 1,234 1,234 1,234 1,234 1,234 1,234 1,234 1,234 1,234 1,234 1,234

MCGILLVRAY OVAL 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50

McKIMMIE RD NTH 2,719 2,719 2,719 2,719 2,719 2,719 2,719 2,719 2,719 2,719 2,719

McKIMMIE STH 255 255 255 255 255 255 255 255 255 255 255

MELVILLE 9,526 9,526 9,526 9,526 9,526 9,526 9,526 9,526 9,526 9,526 9,526

MELVILLE PP 317 317 317 317 317 317 317 317 317 317 317

MELVILLE RAIL 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90

MENDS STREET 6,109 6,109 6,109 6,109 6,109 6,109 6,109 6,109 6,109 6,109 6,109

METRO CITY HOTEL 1,055 1,055 1,055 1,055 1,055 1,055 1,055 1,055 1,055 1,055 1,055

64



2013 (m2)

2014 (m2)

2015 (m2)

2016 (m2)

2017 (m2)

2018 (m2)

2019 (m2)

2020 (m2)

2021 (m2)

2022 (m2)

MILLS STREET 3,334 3,334 3,334 3,334 3,334 3,334 3,334 3,334 3,334 3,334 3,334

MONASH AVE 331 331 331 331 331 331 331 331 331 331 331

MONASH/MURRAY 494 494 494 494 494 494 494 494 494 494 494

MORESBY STREET 350 350 350 350 350 350 350 350 350 350 350

MOSMAN HOTEL 3,786 3,786 3,786 3,786 3,786 3,786 3,786 3,786 3,786 3,786 3,786

MOSMAN PARK 2,863 2,863 2,863 2,863 2,863 2,863 2,863 2,863 2,863 2,863 2,863

MOUNT STREET 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60

MOUNTS BAY RD 68 68 68 68 68 68 68 68 68 68 68

MOUNTS BAY ROAD 2 360 360 360 360 360 360 360 360 360 360 360

MT PLEASANT 639 639 639 639 639 639 639 639 639 639 639

MURDOCH 1,029 1,029 1,029 30,029 30,029 30,029 30,029 30,029 30,029 30,029 30,029

MYAREE 60,226 60,226 60,226 60,226 60,226 60,226 60,226 60,226 60,226 60,226 60,226

MYAREEa 2,946 2,946 2,946 2,946 2,946 2,946 2,946 2,946 2,946 2,946 2,946

NARROGIN INN 1,197 1,197 1,197 1,197 1,197 1,197 1,197 1,197 1,197 1,197 1,197

NEDLANDS 1,875 1,875 1,875 1,875 1,875 1,875 1,875 1,875 1,875 1,875 1,875

NEDLANDS PP 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 54

NICHOLSON RD 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012

NICHOLSON RD NORTH 220 220 220 220 220 220 220 220 220 220 220

NICHOLSON RD SUBIACO 533 533 533 533 533 533 533 533 533 533 533

NORTH FREMANTLE 1,718 1,718 1,718 1,718 1,718 1,718 1,718 1,718 1,718 1,718 1,718

NORTH LAKE RD 2,025 2,025 2,025 2,025 2,025 2,025 2,025 2,025 2,025 2,025 2,025

NORTH ST EAST 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70

NORTH ST WEST 230 230 230 230 230 230 230 230 230 230 230

O’CONNOR 28,651 28,651 28,651 28,651 28,651 28,651 28,651 28,651 28,651 28,651 28,651

ONSLOW ROAD 160 160 160 160 160 160 160 160 160 160 160

PAGET ST 130 130 130 130 130 130 130 130 130 130 130

PALMYRA 1,065 1,065 1,065 1,065 1,065 1,065 1,065 1,065 1,065 1,065 1,065

PARKWOOD SQUARE 222 222 222 222 222 222 222 222 222 222 222

PARRY AVE 2,645 2,645 2,645 2,645 2,645 2,645 2,645 2,645 2,645 2,645 2,645

PERTH ZOO 1,806 1,806 1,806 1,806 1,806 1,806 1,806 1,806 1,806 1,806 1,806

PETRA ST 9,217 9,217 9,217 9,217 9,217 9,217 9,217 9,217 9,217 9,217 9,217

PHOENIX PARK 20,412 20,412 20,412 20,412 20,412 20,412 20,412 20,412 20,412 20,412 20,412

PORT BEACH 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 35

PRESTON STREET 4,341 4,341 4,341 4,341 4,341 4,341 4,341 4,341 4,341 4,341 4,341

PRINCESS ROAD 330 330 330 330 330 330 330 330 330 330 330

QE2 4,615 4,615 4,615 4,615 4,615 4,615 4,615 4,615 4,615 4,615 4,615

QUEEN VICTORIA 21,521 21,521 21,521 21,521 21,521 21,521 21,521 21,521 21,521 21,521 21,521

65



2013 (m2)

2014 (m2)

2015 (m2)

2016 (m2)

2017 (m2)

2018 (m2)

2019 (m2)

2020 (m2)

2021 (m2)

2022 (m2)

QUEENS PARK 910 910 910 910 910 910 910 910 910 910 910

R POINT WALTER RES 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100

R, D 2,330 2,330 2,330 2,330 2,330 2,330 2,330 2,330 2,330 2,330 2,330

R, F 450 450 450 450 450 450 450 450 450 450 450

RAILWAY 556 556 556 556 556 556 556 556 556 556 556

RAILWAY AVE 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600

RAILWAY ROAD 192 192 192 192 192 192 192 192 192 192 192

RENWICK STREET 110 110 110 110 110 110 110 110 110 110 110

REYNOLDS RD/HWY 182 182 182 182 182 182 182 182 182 182 182

RICHMOND CENTRE 5,050 5,050 5,050 5,050 5,050 5,050 5,050 5,050 5,050 5,050 5,050

RISELY ST 8,277 8,277 8,277 8,277 8,277 8,277 8,277 8,277 8,277 8,277 8,277

RIVER RD 3,140 3,140 3,140 3,140 3,140 3,140 3,140 3,140 3,140 3,140 3,140

RIVERSIDE DRIVE 140 140 140 140 140 140 140 140 140 140 140

RIVERTON DRIVE EAST 463 463 463 463 463 463 463 463 463 463 463

RIVERTON FORUM 17,125 17,125 17,125 17,125 17,125 17,125 17,125 17,125 17,125 17,125 17,125

ROBBS 3,213 3,213 3,213 3,213 3,213 3,213 3,213 3,213 3,213 3,213 3,213

ROCKINGHAM ROAD 1,892 1,892 1,892 1,892 1,892 1,892 1,892 1,892 1,892 1,892 1,892

ROLEYSTONE 1,971 1,971 1,971 1,971 1,971 1,971 1,971 1,971 1,971 1,971 1,971

ROSALIE STREET 565 565 565 565 565 565 565 565 565 565 565

SCHRUTH ST 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300

SEVENOAKS STREET 2,060 2,060 2,060 2,060 2,060 2,060 2,060 2,060 2,060 2,060 2,060

SEVENTH AVE 345 345 345 345 345 345 345 345 345 345 345

SHELLEY HUB 843 843 843 843 843 843 843 843 843 843 843

SHENTON PARK 3,542 3,542 3,542 3,542 3,542 3,542 3,542 3,542 3,542 3,542 3,542

SOLDIERS RD 260 260 260 260 260 260 260 260 260 260 260

SOMERVILLE 436 436 436 436 436 436 436 436 436 436 436

SOUTH FREMANTLE 5,058 5,058 5,058 5,058 5,058 5,058 5,058 5,058 5,058 5,058 5,058

SOUTH PERTH ISOLATED USES 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150

SOUTH PERTH PP 161 161 161 161 161 161 161 161 161 161 161

SOUTH ST 320 320 320 320 320 320 320 320 320 320 320

SOUTH ST (EAST) 4,174 4,174 4,174 4,174 4,174 4,174 4,174 4,174 4,174 4,174 4,174

SOUTHBANK 1,651 1,651 1,651 1,651 1,651 1,651 1,651 1,651 1,651 1,651 1,651

SOUTHLANDS 16,158 16,158 16,158 16,158 16,158 16,158 16,158 16,158 16,158 16,158 16,158

SOUTHWELL 255 255 255 255 255 255 255 255 255 255 255

SPEARWOOD 542 542 542 542 542 542 542 542 542 542 542

SPEARWOOD ROAD 3,573 3,573 3,573 3,573 3,573 3,573 3,573 3,573 3,573 3,573 3,573

ST LEONARDS 1,479 1,479 1,479 1,479 1,479 1,479 1,479 1,479 1,479 1,479 1,479

66



2013 (m2)

2014 (m2)

2015 (m2)

2016 (m2)

2017 (m2)

2018 (m2)

2019 (m2)

2020 (m2)

2021 (m2)

2022 (m2)

ST. PAUL’S 294 294 294 294 294 294 294 294 294 294 294

STEVENS ST 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 33

STEVES 1,255 1,255 1,255 1,255 1,255 1,255 1,255 1,255 1,255 1,255 1,255

STIRLING HWY 29,774 29,774 29,774 29,774 29,774 29,774 29,774 29,774 29,774 29,774 29,774

STOCK RD 4,425 4,425 4,425 4,425 4,425 4,425 4,425 4,425 4,425 4,425 4,425

STOCK RD (SOUTH) 5,849 5,849 5,849 5,849 5,849 5,849 5,849 5,849 5,849 5,849 5,849

STOCK RD/SOUTH ST INTERSECT 17,893 17,893 17,893 17,893 17,893 17,893 17,893 17,893 17,893 17,893 17,893

STRATTON STREET 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100

SUBIACO 54,401 54,401 54,401 54,401 54,401 54,401 54,401 54,401 54,401 54,401 54,401

SUBIACO - ISO USES 235 235 235 235 235 235 235 235 235 235 235

SUBIACO OVAL 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000

SUPERDROME 1,200 1,200 1,200 1,200 1,200 1,200 1,200 1,200 1,200 1,200 1,200

SWAN BREWERY 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000

SWANBOURNE 1,781 1,781 1,781 1,781 1,781 1,781 1,781 1,781 1,781 1,781 1,781

THELMA STREET 110 110 110 110 110 110 110 110 110 110 110

TREASURE ROAD 520 520 520 520 520 520 520 520 520 520 520

TUDOR RD 1,601 1,601 1,601 1,601 1,601 1,601 1,601 1,601 1,601 1,601 1,601

UWA 2,992 2,992 2,992 2,992 2,992 2,992 2,992 2,992 2,992 2,992 2,992

VILLAGE 2,890 2,890 2,890 2,890 2,890 2,890 2,890 2,890 2,890 2,890 2,890

WARATAH AVENUE 730 730 730 730 730 730 730 730 730 730 730

WARATAH BLVD 340 340 340 340 340 340 340 340 340 340 340

WATTLEUP 131 131 131 131 131 131 131 131 131 131 131

WEBBER ST 1,048 1,048 1,048 1,048 1,048 1,048 1,048 1,048 1,048 1,048 1,048

WELSHPOOL BUSINESS ENTERPRISE 222 222 222 222 222 222 222 222 222 222 222

WELSHPOOL-E 12,376 12,376 12,376 12,376 12,376 12,376 12,376 12,376 12,376 12,376 12,376

WELSHPOOL-W 42,294 42,294 42,294 42,294 42,294 42,294 42,294 42,294 42,294 42,294 42,294

WELSHPOOL/STATION INT 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50

WELWYN AVENUE 1,780 1,780 1,780 1,780 1,780 1,780 1,780 1,780 1,780 1,780 1,780

WEST ARMADALE 2,249 2,249 2,249 2,249 2,249 2,249 2,249 2,249 2,249 2,249 2,249

WEST PERTH 45,861 45,861 45,861 45,861 45,861 45,861 45,861 45,861 45,861 45,861 45,861

WESTFIELD 1,962 1,962 1,962 1,962 1,962 1,962 1,962 1,962 1,962 1,962 1,962

WHARF STREET 130 130 130 130 130 130 130 130 130 130 130

WHITE GUM VALLEY 1,561 1,561 1,561 1,561 1,561 1,561 1,561 1,561 1,561 1,561 1,561

WILLAGEE 1,392 1,392 1,392 1,392 1,392 1,392 1,392 1,392 1,392 1,392 1,392

WINTERFOLD 2,402 2,402 2,402 2,402 2,402 2,402 2,402 2,402 2,402 2,402 2,402

67



2013 (m2)

2014 (m2)

2015 (m2)

2016 (m2)

2017 (m2)

2018 (m2)

2019 (m2)

2020 (m2)

2021 (m2)

2022 (m2)

WINTERFOLD ROAD 155 155 155 155 155 155 155 155 155 155 155

WINTHROP 3,411 3,411 3,411 3,411 3,411 3,411 3,411 3,411 3,411 3,411 3,411

WINTHROPa 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100

WOODMAN PT REC RES 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200

WOODPECKER AVENUE 1,549 1,549 1,549 1,549 1,549 1,549 1,549 1,549 1,549 1,549 1,549

WRAY AVE 1,878 1,878 1,878 1,878 1,878 1,878 1,878 1,878 1,878 1,878 1,878

YANGEBUP 1,748 1,748 1,748 1,748 1,748 1,748 1,748 1,748 1,748 1,748 1,748

YANGEBUP SHOPPING 657 657 657 657 657 657 657 657 657 657 657

Source: Pracsys 2013; WAPC Land Use Survey (2007-08)

68

A6

APPENDIX 6: RETAIL TURNOVER

69


70


71


72

7.0

APPENDIX 7: GLOSSARY

Comparison retail - refers to retail goods for which the volume of goods and the number of transactions are generally lower, occur less frequently and have a higher cost both in terms of the value of goods purchased and the search costs involved. Examples of comparison retail goods include electronics and furniture.

Convenience retail - refers to retail goods for which the volume of goods and number of transactions are generally higher, occur more frequently and have lower costs both in terms of the value of goods purchased and the search costs involved. Examples of convenience retail goods include fuel and groceries.

Employment self containment (ESC) – is the proportion of jobs located in a geographic area that are occupied by residents of the same area, relative to the total number of working residents of that area.

Employment self-sufficiency (ESS) – is the proportion of jobs located in a geographic area (region, corridor, local government) relative to the residents in that same area who are employed in the workforce. For example, if the area has 1,000 employed residents and 450 local jobs available, the employment self-sufficiency rate is 45%.

Entertainment – refers to a range of entertainment, recreation and cultural products that are sold directly to consumers. Central to the definition of entertainment is not only the purpose of the product but also how it is consumed. Entertainment refers to entertaining goods and services consumed in the public realm. Entertainment goods that are purchased and consumed in the private realm fall under the definition of retail. For example the purchase of a computer game would be

considered a comparison retail purchase. The purchase of tokens to play a computer game at Timezone would be considered entertainment. Other examples of entertainment products include, bars and clubs, cinemas, museums and art galleries.

Population-driven industries/employment – industries or jobs directly related to servicing the needs of a specific catchment population. As such its location will be largely determined by the location of population growth, as well as activity centre hierarchy and maturity. Consumer services, producers services and knowledge intensive consumers are collectively referred to as population-driven.

Strategic industries/ employment - results from economic activity focused on the creation and transfer of goods and services to an external market. The location of strategic employment is not driven by population growth, but rather by a range of other factors, including agglomeration economies.

amp capital booragoon activity centre ......ii amp capital: booragoon activity centre structure plan...

Documents