amp – driving sustainable...
TRANSCRIPT
ASX Announcement
10 October 2006 Manager Manager Company Announcements Office Market Information Services Section Australian Stock Exchange New Zealand Stock Exchange Level 4, 20 Bridge Street Level 9, ASB Tower, 2 Hunter Street Sydney NSW 2000 Wellington New Zealand
Announcement No: 55/06
Presentation by AMP Chief Executive Officer, Andrew Mohl Please find attached a presentation to be given by AMP CEO Andrew Mohl to the ASA/ASX Investor Hour in Sydney today, titled AMP and the evolving financial services industry.
AMP and the evolving financial AMP and the evolving financial services industryservices industry
Andrew MohlChief Executive Officer
October 2006
2
Outline
Market overview
AMP business model
Business performance
People and culture
Capital management and shareholder returns
Outlook
Market overviewMarket overview
4
Australian private pension market is a highly attractive market with mandated growth
Compulsory superannuation framework
Contribution rate currently mandated at 9%, with coverage extending to 90% of Australian workforce*
Recent Budget initiatives confirm superannuation is the Federal Government’s flagship long-term savings vehicle
Ageing population^
Almost half of Australians will be older than 50 by 2051
Working-age population between 15-64 years projected to decline from 67% in 2004 to between 57-59% in 2051
Strong, stable business and regulatory environmentAustralia named best country for fund managers to do business#
Sources:* Australian Treasury 2005 “Inquiry into improving superannuation savings of people under age 40“.^Australian Bureau of Statistics. Population Projections, Australia 2002 to 2101.# Cerulli Associates, Cerulli Global Update Mid-Year 2005, Axiss Australia.
5
Australian private pension market set to triple in 10 years and exceed all of Asia
2005Total US$1,452 billion
2015Total US$3,744 billion
Australia51.0%
South Korea7.3%
4.3%
China3.6%
Other countries9.8%
US$1,908.7b
Australia36.3%
Singapore
Hong Kong2.7%
South Korea2.2%
Other countries1.7%
US$527.5b
4.7%
India
Japan52.4%
Japan23.9%
Source: Allianz Global Investors. Asia-Pacific Pensions, Reform Trends and Growth opportunities, June 2005, Axiss Australia
6
Growth outlook for superannuation industry and key sectors for AMP is robust
13.3%
24.8%
1.8%
13.0%
9.9%
5.8%
9.4%
40.2%
23.5%
2002 - 2005
12.9%734,129Total industry - AUM*
17.8%95,303Industry funds
2.2%62,214Corporate funds
19.9%59,996Employer sponsored (master trust)
8.4%60,813Retirement income
6.4%134,410Savings and investment
13.2%128,047Retail superannuation
20.1%23,289Wrap
15.1%170,057Self-managed funds (DIY)
2005 - 20102005AUM industry profile
CAGRSize
Source: DEXX&R Market Projections Report, June 2006, based on data as at 30 June 2005 (released after the May 2006 Budget announcement)
* Total industry AUM excludes public sector funds
7
AMP holds leading market positions
1 17.01 17.7220.8 186.5
43 11.111.03.7Individual risk
Total annual inflows A$billion
33 11.812.1438.5Total retail managed funds
Unit trusts excluding cash management trusts
Retirement income
Funds under management A$billion
Market position
(rank)
Total market
size A$b
Market share %
Market position
(rank)
Total market
size A$b
Market share - Australia
3.3
369.1
1
11 15.916.3289.3Total superannuation & retirement income 244.8
2
Superannuation including rollovers
3
June 2006 June 2005
Market share %
68.5 2 12.1 2 12.458.3
116.4141.2 10 3.7 10 3.6
March 2006 March 2005
1. Source: Plan for Life June 2006, Retail Managed Funds Report.
2. Note: Excludes cash management trusts.3. Source: Plan for Life detailed risk statistics March 2006 – in force premiums individual risk.
AMP business modelAMP business model
9
Key drivers and enablers of AMP business model
Six drivers
Products & Platforms
CostEfficiency
Asset ManagementDistribution PackagingBrand
Four enablers
People & Culture
Operations & Risk Management
Capital ManagementTechnology
10
Comparative advantage of AMP in planner distribution – scale, quality and tenure
Number of Australian financial plannersJune 2006
Adviser turnover – June 2004 to June 2005
Source: Money Management, June 2006
*1,553 based on AMP’s 1H 06 Investor Report and includes AMP Financial Planning (Australia only) and Hillross.**Based on internal data as at 31 March 2006.
Source: Brennan Partners report, November 2005
(1) This survey included 18 dealer groups representing approximately 45% of all planners in the Money Management Top 100 Dealer Groups (June 2005).
Number of Certified Financial Planners**
Planner tenure
17% more than 10 yearsMedian of dealer groups surveyed
49% more than 10 yearsAMPFP
18%Median
23%Upper quartile
4% to 47%Range
14%Lower quartile
Dealer groups surveyed (1)
14%AMPFP turnover
642
1800
1,5531600
14001,231
1,10612001,028
1000 904
800
600 511
400
200
0AMP* NAB CBA WBC ANZ/ING AXA
11
Comparative advantage of AMP in corporate super – scale, cost efficiency and downstream benefits
Market leader in employer sponsored master trusts – 19.4% market share*
SignatureSuper grown to $4.1b in 20 months
Scale and cost efficiency create shareholder value
Sticky administration / trustee contracts with strong revenue growth – 3-4% member/wage inflation growth plus retained investment earnings
Profits on investment management, including AMP Capital multi-manager
Group insurance profits
Lowers unit costs in other parts of business due to use of common systems and supply chain
Downstream benefits for retail product – superannuation, pensions and insurance
* Source: DEXX&R Market Share Report, June 2006
Business performanceBusiness performance
13
Highlights of 1H 06 Group performance
Encouraging progress on all five key performance indicatorsUnderlying return on equity up from 22.9% to 26.6%AFS value of new business1 up 22%; AFS embedded value1 up 12% in 1H 06Operating earnings up 15% to A$342mCost ratio down from 41.9% to 40.1%; costs up 5% in 1H 0684% of Australian AUM at or > benchmark in year to June
Major progress on goal to double value from mid 2005 to mid 201040% increase in value of AMP in 12 months to June 2006, based on median analysts’ valuation plus dividends and capital returnNow targeting mid 2009 to achieve goal
Capital management initiatives continueGroup office capital A$1.5b at June 2006 post A$750m capital return Underlying interest cover increased to 14.6xInterim dividend up from 14 cents to 19 cents, 85% franked2006 payout ratio policy and franking rate both lifted from 75% to 85%
1 Traditional basis, @ 3% discount margin
14
Growth remains robust
Assets under management Group up 15% on 1H 05 to A$110b
AMPCI up 14% on 1H 05 to A$96b
AFS up 17% on 1H 05 to A$71b
Net cashflowsAFS up from A$0.9b in 1H05 to A$2.8b
AMPCI net external cashflows A$1.1b in both 1H 05 and 1H 06
Risk premium incomeAustralian individual risk up 11% on 1H 05 to A$403m
15
AFS – net retail cashflows and industry shareAMP rolling 12 month net cashflows (excl CMTs), AMP ranking
and AMP cashflows as % of industryAMP
net cashflows% of industry
total
6,000 18%
Source: Plan for Life June 2006, Retail Managed Funds Report
Note: Number above box represents relative industry ranking in year ending quarter /rankings exclude badged products
AMP net retail cashflows (ex CMTs) as % of industry total
16%
15,000
14%
4,000 12%
10%33 23,000 28%3
23212,000 6%233
4%61,000 7
89 2%
0 0%A$m
Jun- Sep- Dec- Mar- Jun- Sep- Dec- Mar- Jun- Sep- Dec- Mar- Jun- Sep- Dec- Mar- Jun-02 02 02 03 03 03 03 04 04 04 04 05 05 05 05 06 06
16
Group cost ratio down to 40.1%
397 399 392412
46.5%43.9%
41.9%40.1%
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
1H 03* 1H 04* 1H 05* 1H 060
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
A$m %
Controllable costs Cost to income ratio
* Some minor restatements to reflect a change in the definition of controllable costs
17
Underlying return on equity up to 26.6% and set to exceed 30% in 2007
21.0%22.9%
26.6%
32%
35
30
25
20
15
10
5 6.9%
% 01H 03* 1H 04 1H 05 1H 06 1H 06 modelling full
impact of 2006 capitalreturn
*Pre-demerger Underlying return on equity
18
Major progress on 5 year goal to double the value of an investment in AMP from mid 2005 to mid 2010
40% change in 12 months from mid 200516.23.4
0.70.5
11.6
A$bOpening value – June 05
median analysts’ valuation*
Dividends (2H 05 + 1H 06)
Capital return –1H 06
Change in median analysts’ valuation
over 12 months
Closing value* –June 06
* Measured by calculating the value of dividends and capital returns paid to shareholders, and increases in enterprise value. Enterprise value is measured by calculating the median of the major stockbroking analyst valuations of AMP in each year, beginning June 2005.
Business unit performanceBusiness unit performance
20
Australian contemporary wealth management –a high growth, high return business
30.4%
A$34.7b
83.8%
A$1,496m
54.4%
A$172m
A$89m
1H 051H 05
37.6%
A$44.7b
83.1%
A$3,309m
48.5%
A$175m
A$116m
1H 061H 06
ContemporaryContemporarywealth managementwealth management
- 0.7 percentage pointsPersistency
+ 121%Net cashflows
+ 2%Controllable costs1
- 5.9 percentage pointsCost to income ratio
+ 30%Operating earnings
+ 29%AUM
+ 7.2 percentage pointsReturn on equity2
ChangeChange
1 Include planner support costs of the distribution business recovered from the Australian mature and contemporary wealth protection businesses through a fee on AUM.
2 Return on BU equity, ungeared, excluding goodwill. Based on monthly average BU capital numbers.
21
Australian contemporary wealth protection – a solid growth, high return business
28.2%
A$1.7b
9.6%
A$403m
22.2%
A$31m
A$59m
1H 061H 06
Contemporary Contemporary wealth protectionwealth protection
29.3%
A$1.7b
9.3%
$363m
25.1%
A$33m
A$55m
1H 051H 05
- 1.1 percentage points
Steady
+ 0.3 percentage points
+ 11%
- 2.9 percentage points
- 6%
+ 7%
ChangeChange
Individual risk lapse rate
Individual risk annual premium income
Controllable costs
Cost to income ratio
Operating earnings
AUM
Return on equity1
1 Return on BU equity, ungeared, excluding goodwill. Based on monthly average BU capital numbers.
22
Australian mature – long tail, large scale, outstanding return business
+ 0.6%A$18.1bA$18.2bAUM
+ 0.1 percentage point87.6%87.7%Persistency
+ 8%(A$614m)(A$564m)Net cashflows
- 3%A$31mA$30mControllable costs
n/a0.33%0.32%Controllable costs/AUM1
+ 11%A$83mA$92mOperating earnings
+ 35.3 percentage points47.2%82.5%Return on equity2
1H 051H 051H 061H 06
ChangeChangeMatureMature
1 Based on monthly average AUM.2 Return on BU equity, ungeared, excluding goodwill. Based on monthly average BU capital numbers.
23
New Zealand – a life risk-driven, high return business
+ 1 percentage point5.9%6.9%Lapse rates
+ 3% (+ 16% in local currency)A$77mA$79mRisk annual premium income
n/a(A$53m)A$10mNet cashflows
SteadyA$23mA$23mOperating earnings
+ 19%A$26mA$31mControllable costs
+ 3.7 percentage points40.7%44.4%Cost to income ratio
- 4.4 percentage points27.4%23.0%Return on equity1
SteadyA$4.2bA$4.2bAUM
1H 051H 051H 061H 06
ChangeChangeNew ZealandNew Zealand
1 Return on BU equity, ungeared, excluding goodwill. Based on monthly average BU capital numbers.
24
AMP Capital Investors – a high growth, high return asset management business
+ 12%A$93mA$104mControllable costs
+ 19%A$152mA$181mFee income
+ 14%A$84.4bA$96.4bAUM
+ 14.1 percentage points45.9%60.0%Return on equity1
A$1,055m
58.4%
A$42m
1H 051H 05
A$1,144m
55.2%
A$55m
1H 061H 06
AMP Capital InvestorsAMP Capital Investors
+ 8%Net external cashflows
- 3.2 percentage pointsCost to income ratio
+ 31%Operating earnings
ChangeChange
1 Return on BU equity, excluding intangibles. Based on monthly average BU capital numbers.
25
AMPCI – out-performance against benchmarks across all asset classesAustralian AUMAustralian AUM
Jun-06 Dec-05
83%90%
94% 94%
78%84%
79%
89% 86%
76%
91%
79%
Listed assets Infrastructure Private equity Property FutureDirections
Funds
Total
Target 75%
% indicates assets under management meeting or exceeding benchmarks
People and culturePeople and culture
27
Developing and retaining our most valuable resource
Our most valuable resource is our people
We’re building a constructive culture as it is a key long term driver of high performing companies
One of the tools AMP has been using to measure culture since 1996 is the Organisational Culture Inventory (OCI) tool
OCI identifies an organisation’s culture as having one of three dominant styles: constructive (blue), passive/defensive (green) and aggressive/defensive (red)
2006 results show continued improvement in constructive styles, in particular becoming a more achievement-oriented place to work
AMP also compares well against the financial services industry as a whole
Encouraging results to date - but more work to be done
28
AMP culture – increasingly constructive
2006N = 2,786
1996N = 3,539
Source: Human Synergistics NZ LimitedCopyright © 2005. All rights reserved
29
AMP culture – more constructive than finance industry as a wholeFinancial services industry comparison
Source: Human Synergistics InternationalCopyright © 2005. All rights reserved
Base profile = AMP 2006Overlay = Finance industry
Capital management and Capital management and shareholder returnsshareholder returns
31
Capital management strategy
Capital efficiency has been pursued by:leveraging the strong share market performance since early 2003 growing the contemporary and asset management businesses that are relatively low in capital intensityrunning off the more capital intensive mature life and Cobalt/Gordian businessesachieving sustained out-performance in managing assets of mature life business‘derisking’ the mature business and shareholder capital through a range of initiativesdeveloping sophisticated monitoring systems and sensitivity modellingreturning A$1.5b in excess capital to shareholders.
32
Three major capital initiatives to date
First capital return of A$750m in June 2005
Second capital return of A$750m in June 2006
Third initiative - ordinary dividend payout ratio policy increased to 85% of underlying profit this year and franking rate also lifted to 85%
Possibility of a fourth capital initiative in FY 07
Balance sheet currently supports a fourth initiative
Quantum, timing and form have not yet been determined – likely announcement in February 2007 with FY 06 results
Initiative will continue to be framed against the objective to maintain the Group’s ‘A’ credit rating
33
Dividends and capital returns since 2003
713 14 199
1418
40
40
7275
5960
45
2730
16
15
0cents2003 2004 2005 2006*
15% franked - interim85% franked - final
75% franked75% franked 85% franked
Interim dividend Final dividend Capital return
*Final 2006 dividend will be advised at AMP’s full year results announcement in February 2007
34
Strong business performance and disciplined capital management driving total shareholder return
60
80
140
30 S
ept 2
002
= 10
0
49% since Dec 200428% since Dec 2005
120
100
AMP total return 28% since Sept 200235% since Dec 2002123% since Dec 2003
40
20Sep-02 Mar-03 Sep-03 Mar-04 Sep-04 Mar-05 Sep-05 Mar-06 Sep-06
OutlookOutlook
36
Medium term positioning of AMP is attractive
Retirement savings industry set to grow by over 10% pa in next decade*AMP holds top three positions in key product segments of this market
Retail superannuation Retirement incomes Corporate superannuation Individual risk
AMP has strong competitive advantage in two key distribution channels
PlannersEmployer sponsored master trusts
AMP Capital Investors leverages broad internal funds baseTargets external growth in selected asset classes and markets inAustralia and Asia
* Source: Dexx&R Market Projections Report May 2006 (9th edition)
37
Strategic focus centred on core business
Focus on “running the business better than it’s ever been run before” to drive shareholder value is working
Capturing scale benefits from volume and market growth
Sustaining lowest unit cost position in the industry
Pursuing strong growth in our core businesses
Attractive value proposition for our customersSecurity
Performance
Fairness
Measuring our success in 2006 by five key indicatorsUnderlying return on equity Cost ratio
Operating earnings Investment performance
Value metrics
38
Medium term outlook
Sound platform for future growthGood industry, good operating environment, good business model
Sharp focus on the basics of our businessThe better we get at running the business, the more opportunities we find to improve
Broad basis for growthRetail super, corporate super, retirement income products, risk insurance, retail and institutional fundsFederal Budget provides further stimulus to industry in 2006-07 and medium term
Strong balance sheet and cash flowEnabling capital returns and higher dividends
Upgraded medium term goalOriginal goal to double value of an investment in AMP in 5 years to mid 2010 = growth of 15% a yearNow targeting mid 2009 to achieve this goal