© 2009 by strategic business insights. all rights reserved. leds: opportunities and uncertainties...
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© 2009 by Strategic Business Insights. All rights reserved.© 2009 by Strategic Business Insights. All rights reserved.
LEDs: Opportunities and Uncertainties
An Update
18 November 2009
Benjamin Gross, Ph.D.Consultant
SBI Explorer
www.strategicbusinessinsights.com
2
LED Attributes
LEDs can improve most lighting solutionsKey Attributes:
Image Sources: Actuate Corp., architonic.com, Zumtobel, Bracknell Forest Borough Council, MB Tronics
Eficiency Design Longevity Color
3
Lighting Applications
LEDs can improve most lighting solutionsApplications include:
Image Sources: LED Colour Solutions, Motion Trend, OrangeTeK, Crutchfield New Media, LLC
Home Automotive Outdoors Display
4
LED Development
First half of the 20th century: light from p-n junction.
• 1960s and 1970s: commercial IR, red, and yellow light emitting diodes (LEDs) (RCA, GE, TI)
• Color: semiconductor bandgap• AlGaAs: red and IR; AlGaP: green; AlGaInP: yellow, orange
p-type n-type
i
+ -+ -+ -
hv
+ -
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LED Development
• 1990s: First commercial high-brightness blue LEDs (Nichia - Shuji Nakamura).
• White lights quickly followed.• Yellow phosphor combines for white light:
— Ce:YAG, ZnSe (substrate and phosphor), quantum dots.
Image Sources: University of Wisconsin, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, Treehugger.com, lightemittingdiodes.org
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Efficiency
< 20 lm/W 45–60 lm/W (CFL)
<100 lm/W (Tube)
< 90 lm/W (available)
>150 lm/W (experimental)
Image Sources: Reed Business Information Ltd; Madison Clean Energy; Boca Flasher
In SI measurements, luminous efficacy at 555 nm has a theoretical maximum of 683 lm/W.
Drive for efficiency is pushing LED interest
Fluorescent LEDIncandescent
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Design
Small packages and color options allow for novel design opportunities.
Image Sources: Solas, Koninklijke Philips Electronics, UMNITZ, architonic.com, Zumtobel
8
Longevity
For embedded applications:
Longevity reduces waste.
Image Sources: Motion0 Trend; OrangeTeK; Declan McCullagh; Forth Corporation; Bracknell Forest Borough Council
9
Color Reproduction
Quantum-dot lighting may provide even richer, more natural light with broader color gamut.
Image Sources: Apple; treehugger.com
• Blue lights with yellow phosphors provide “warmer” white lighting than fluorescent.
• White LEDs yield improved color depth.
• RGB modules provide adjustable coloring.
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High-Brightness LED Market
$4.6B$5.1B
$4.9B
$14.9B (est.)Estimated 24% CAGR between 2008 and 2013.
Data Sources: Strategies Unlimited, Global Industry Analysts
Overall lighting market approximately $100B in 2010.
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High-Brightness LED Market
• Market led by Japan: Nichia, Toshiba, Showa Denko KK, Sharp, CITIZEN and Toyoda Gosei.
• Followed by Taiwan: Chi Mei (now owned by Hon Hai), TSMC
• European Union: Philips, OSRAM Sylvania
• United States: Cree
• Korea: Samsung LED, LG Innotek, Seoul Semiconductor
• China: Manufacturing dispersed, many downstream manufacturers
Data Sources: Strategies Unlimited, Global Industry Analysts
12
General Illumination
Image Sources: Reed Business Information Ltd; Madison Clean Energy; Boca FlasherData Source: Strategies Unlimited
• U.S., Japan, Canada, Australia (and others) banning sale of most incandescent bulbs by 2012.
• Europe banning the sale of 100-W incandescent bulb, Sept. 2009, all incandescent bulbs 2016.
• LED has no mercury, so offers RoHS advantages.
• General illumination market $5B by 2012
• LED benefits over CFL (CCT, lifetime, dimmability, low-temperature, no mercury).
• Cost of LEDs remains too high for consumers .
Correlated Color Temperature (CCT) is an approximation of emitted spectrum from a black-body radiator at temperature in kelvin.
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Commercial/Municipal
Image Sources: LEDs MagazineData Sources: U.S. DOE, Beringea LLC
• Always on: longevity and efficiency important
— Labor-intensive maintenance
— Understood cost/benefit
• Better outdoor/cold-temperature performance
• New buildings, new light fixtures
• U.S. has ~130M streetlamps, $65B replacement market over next 10 years.
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Image Sources: Gizmodo.com; UMNITZA; FlatbattData Source: Beringea LLC
Automotive
• Space and power efficiency is important.
• Efficiency is a value in hybrid/EV.
• LEDs last the life of the car.
• LED-based brake lights represented 53% of worldwide market in 2007, expected to be 85% of market by 2011.
15Image Sources: Edmunds; Wheeltalk
Automotive
• New opportunities in design: distinctive image branding
White LED headlights limited to luxury market.
16Image Sources: BMW World; LEDs Magazine
Automotive
• Smarter design offers adaptive front lighting.• Design adjusts to speed and in turns.• Future systems adjust cutoff line, brightness, conditions.
17Image Sources: HardWare.fr; Samsung; acWorld; TechfreshData Source: DisplaySearch, iSuppli
Displays
• LED backlighting units for LCDs:— Full NTSC color gamut— Improved contrast with local
dimming— Better efficiency (Energy
Star in United States)— No mercury (RoHS)
• LED TVs from Sony, Sharp, Samsung, LG, Vizio, and more.
18Image Sources: HardWare.fr; Samsung; acWorld; TechfreshData Source: DisplaySearch, iSuppli
Displays
• LCDs represent 88% of display market.• 104.5M LED BLU units in 2009 (est.),
53% of mid- to high-end notebooks.• LED BLUs in 3% of LCD TVs in 2009,
reaching 39% of LCD TVs in 2013 (~90% CAGR).
19Image Sources: Mitsubishi; Declan McCullagh
Displays
• Large LED Displays:— Are visible in direct sunlight— Can be very large— Need infrequent component
replacement
20Image Sources: Twibright Labs, VLCC
Freespace Communications
• Outdoor— Reasonable Optical
Near Joint Access (RONJA, Czech Rep.)
— 10 Mbps, >1.4 km— Weather problems
• Indoor
— White LED lighting
— Unlicensed spectrum
• Traffic Signal
21
Image Sources: treehugger.com
Commercialization Parameters
• Technological Hurdles• New materials for LEDs
— Phosphors— Quantum dots— Casing materials
• Efficiency— Luminaire efficacy— High-power HB-LEDs (to
outperform CFL)• Luminous flux
22
Image Sources: treehugger.com
Commercialization Parameters
• Cost Hurdles• Economies of Scale
— Like computer chips— Demand across all
applications• Incumbency
— Ubiquitous AC power and light fixtures
— Creative destruction
23Image Sources: treehugger.com
Commercialization Parameters
Social Drivers• Policy drivers• Need for standardization• Public movement
— “Ban the Bulb”— Energy-efficiency push
24Image Sources: Sustainable Design Update
Conclusions for now
• Lighting, automotive, and displays are the fastest-growing areas and where new opportunities will be.
• LED supportive national policies are being implemented, and will continue to emerge.
• LEDs are a part of the “cleantech” movement.
• Efficacy and cost issues can be met within a reasonable time frame.
• Standards are necessary for buy in.
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Outlook
• LEDs achieving 85% of brake light market in 2011.• Laptop display market trending toward 100% adoption of LEDs.• LED BLU for LCDs will be largest contributor toward market
growth, largest market segment through 2013.• LED general illumination market to see 15% growth in 2009, 40%-
50% growth in years following economic recovery. Second largest application of HB-LED in 2013.
• Detroit based Ilumisys (subsidiary of Altair Engineering) plans to grow out of economic downturn, claims it will be “highest volume maker of solid state lighting products,” by end of 2010.
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Task: Consider Areas to Monitor
EconomyAutomobile
Market
EconomyAutomobile
Market
Cost of LEDCost of LED
LuxuryAutomobile
Market
LuxuryAutomobile
Market
Global Standardized Light Fixture
Global Standardized Light Fixture
LED ProjectorsLED Projectors
AdaptiveFront-Lighting
(HB/LB)
AdaptiveFront-Lighting
(HB/LB)
R&DAdvances
R&DAdvancesIssues and Uncertainties
EfficacyImprovement
EfficacyImprovement
LED-BLU Dominates LCD HDTV
LED-BLU Dominates LCD HDTV
EfficiencyRegulationsEfficiency
Regulations
OLED Competitive
With LED
OLED Competitive
With LED
LED Replaces IncandescentLED Replaces Incandescent
Q-Dot Mass ProductionQ-Dot Mass Production
Consumer Acceptance of LED (Upfront Cost and
Appearance)
Consumer Acceptance of LED (Upfront Cost and
Appearance)
In-home DC PowerIn-home
DC PowerStreetlight/Signal
ReplacementStreetlight/Signal
ReplacementAvailability of
Enabling ComponentsAvailability of
Enabling ComponentsCost of EnergyCost of Energy
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