0000utc nam mos ccs vs. wcoss 2m-temp & 2m-dewpt …ccs nam mos vs. wcoss nam mos office of...

Verification of CCS GFS MOS vs. WCOSS GFS MOS

CCS NAM MOS vs. WCOSS NAM MOS

Office of Science and Technology, Meteorological Development Lab Evaluation completed: 6/12/13

May 9, 2013 – May 31, 2013 0000 UTC cycle

Station Sample: CONUS + OCONUS – 1440 Stations

Alaska – 110 Stations

Weather Elements: Projection Hours: 2M – Temperature (°F) 6hr – 84hr (NAM) 2M – Dewpoint (°F) 6hr – 192hr (GFS) Daytime Maximum Temperature (°F) Nighttime Minimum Temperature (°F) Metrics: Wind Speed (Kts) BIAS 06-h Probability of Precip. (PoP - %) MAE 12-h PoP (%) BRIER SCORE

Verification of CCS GFS MOS vs. WCOSS GFS MOS

CCS NAM MOS vs. WCOSS NAM MOS

-2

-1.5

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

6 18 30 42 54 66 78 90 102 114 126 138 150 162 174 186

BIA

S (°

F)

Projection (Hours)

2M-Temperature (°F) - BIAS Overall (1440 Stations)

CCS GFS MOS WCOSS GFS MOS

-2

-1.5

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

6 18 30 42 54 66 78 90 102 114 126 138 150 162 174 186

BIA

S (°

F)

Projection (Hours)

2M-Temperature (°F) - BIAS Alaska (110 Stations)

CCS GFS MOS WCOSS GFS MOS

CCS GFS MOS vs. WCOSS GFS MOS May 9, 2013 – May 31, 2013 0000 UTC Cycle Weather Element: Metric: 2M - Temperature (°F) BIAS Projection Hours: 6hr – 192hr (Every 3 hrs) Station Sample: CONUS + OCONUS – 1440 Stations Alaska – 110 Stations

CCS GFS MOS vs. WCOSS GFS MOS May 9, 2013 – May 31, 2013 0000 UTC Cycle Weather Element: Metric: 2M - Temperature (°F) MAE Projection Hours: 6hr – 192hr (Every 3 hrs) Station Sample: CONUS + OCONUS – 1440 Stations Alaska – 110 Stations

2

3

4

5

6

6 18 30 42 54 66 78 90 102 114 126 138 150 162 174 186

MA

E (°

F)

Projection (Hours)

2M-Temperature (°F) - MAE Overall (1440 Stations)

CCS GFS MOS WCOSS GFS MOS

2

3

4

5

6

6 18 30 42 54 66 78 90 102 114 126 138 150 162 174 186

MA

E (°

F)

Projection (Hours)

2M-Temperature (°F) - MAE Alaska (110 Stations)

CCS GFS MOS WCOSS GFS MOS

CCS GFS MOS vs. WCOSS GFS MOS May 9, 2013 – May 31, 2013 0000 UTC Cycle Weather Element: Metric: 2M - Dewpoint (°F) BIAS Projection Hours: 6hr – 192hr (Every 3 hrs) Station Sample: CONUS + OCONUS – 1440 Stations Alaska – 110 Stations

-2

-1.5

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

6 18 30 42 54 66 78 90 102 114 126 138 150 162 174 186

BIA

S (°

F)

Projection (Hours)

2M - Dewpoint (°F) - BIAS Overall (1440 Stations)

CCS GFS MOS WCOSS GFS MOS

-2

-1.5

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

6 18 30 42 54 66 78 90 102 114 126 138 150 162 174 186

BIA

S (°

F)

Projection (Hours)

2M - Dewpoint (°F) - BIAS Alaska (110 Stations)

CCS GFS MOS WCOSS GFS MOS

CCS GFS MOS vs. WCOSS GFS MOS May 9, 2013 – May 31, 2013 0000 UTC Cycle Weather Element: Metric: 2M - Dewpoint (°F) MAE Projection Hours: 6hr – 192hr (Every 3 hrs) Station Sample: CONUS + OCONUS – 1440 Stations Alaska – 110 Stations

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

5

5.5

6

6.5

6 18 30 42 54 66 78 90 102 114 126 138 150 162 174 186

MA

E (°

F)

Projection (Hours)

2M - Dewpoint (°F) - MAE Overall (1440 Stations)

CCS GFS MOS WCOSS GFS MOS

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

5

5.5

6

6.5

6 18 30 42 54 66 78 90 102 114 126 138 150 162 174 186

MA

E (°

F)

Projection (Hours)

2M - Dewpoint (°F) - MAE Alaska (110 Stations)

CCS GFS MOS WCOSS GFS MOS

CCS GFS MOS vs. WCOSS GFS MOS May 9, 2013 – May 31, 2013 0000 UTC Cycle Weather Element: Metric: Daytime Max Temperature (°F) BIAS Projection Hours: 6hr – 192hr (Every 3 hrs) Station Sample: CONUS + OCONUS – 1440 Stations Alaska – 110 Stations

-2

-1.5

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

30 54 78 102 126 150 174 198

BIA

S (°

F)

Projection (Hours)

Daytime Max Temp (°F) - BIAS Overall (1440 Stations)

CCS GFS MOS WCOSS GFS MOS

-2

-1.5

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

30 54 78 102 126 150 174 198

BIA

S (°

F)

Projection (Hours)

Daytime Max Temp (°F) - BIAS Alaska (110 Stations)

CCS GFS MOS WCOSS GFS MOS

CCS GFS MOS vs. WCOSS GFS MOS May 9, 2013 – May 31, 2013 0000 UTC Cycle Weather Element: Metric: Daytime Max Temperature (°F) MAE Projection Hours: 6hr – 192hr (Every 3 hrs) Station Sample: CONUS + OCONUS – 1440 Stations Alaska – 110 Stations

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

5

5.5

6

6.5

30 54 78 102 126 150 174 198

MA

E (°

F)

Projection (Hours)

Daytime Max Temp (°F) - MAE Overall (1440 Stations)

CCS GFS MOS WCOSS GFS MOS

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

5

5.5

6

6.5

30 54 78 102 126 150 174 198

MA

E (°

F)

Projection (Hours)

Daytime Max Temp (°F) - MAE Alaska (110 Stations)

CCS GFS MOS WCOSS GFS MOS

CCS GFS MOS vs. WCOSS GFS MOS May 9, 2013 – May 31, 2013 0000 UTC Cycle Weather Element: Metric: Nighttime Min Temperature (°F) BIAS Projection Hours: 6hr – 192hr (Every 3 hrs) Station Sample: CONUS + OCONUS – 1440 Stations Alaska – 110 Stations

-2

-1.5

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

42 66 90 114 138 162 186 210

BIA

S (°

F)

Projection (Hours)

Nighttime Min Temp (°F) - BIAS Overall (1440 Stations)

CCS GFS MOS WCOSS GFS MOS

-2

-1.5

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

42 66 90 114 138 162 186 210

BIA

S (°

F)

Projection (Hours)

Nighttime Min Temp (°F) - BIAS Alaska (110 Stations)

CCS GFS MOS WCOSS GFS MOS

CCS GFS MOS vs. WCOSS GFS MOS May 9, 2013 – May 31, 2013 0000 UTC Cycle Weather Element: Metric: Nighttime Min Temperature (°F) MAE Projection Hours: 6hr – 192hr (Every 3 hrs) Station Sample: CONUS + OCONUS – 1440 Stations Alaska – 110 Stations

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

5

5.5

6

6.5

42 66 90 114 138 162 186 210

MA

E (°

F)

Projection (Hours)

Nighttime Min Temp (°F) - MAE Overall (1440 Stations)

CCS GFS MOS WCOSS GFS MOS

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

5

5.5

6

6.5

42 66 90 114 138 162 186 210

MA

E (°

F)

Projection (Hours)

Nighttime Min Temp (°F) - MAE Alaska (110 Stations)

CCS GFS MOS WCOSS GFS MOS

CCS GFS MOS vs. WCOSS GFS MOS May 9, 2013 – May 31, 2013 0000 UTC Cycle Weather Element: Metric: Wind Speed (Kts) BIAS Projection Hours: 6hr – 192hr (Every 3 hrs) Station Sample: CONUS + OCONUS – 1440 Stations Alaska – 110 Stations

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

6 18 30 42 54 66 78 90 102 114 126 138 150 162 174 186

Bia

s (K

ts)

Projection (hours)

Wind Speed (Kts) - BIAS Overall (1440 Stations)

CCS GFS MOS WCOSS GFS MOS

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

6 18 30 42 54 66 78 90 102 114 126 138 150 162 174 186

Bia

s (K

ts)

Projection (hours)

Wind Speed (Kts) - BIAS Alaska (110 Stations)

CCS GFS MOS WCOSS GFS MOS

CCS GFS MOS vs. WCOSS GFS MOS May 9, 2013 – May 31, 2013 0000 UTC Cycle Weather Element: Metric: Wind Speed (Kts) MAE Projection Hours: 6hr – 192hr (Every 3 hrs) Station Sample: CONUS + OCONUS – 1440 Stations Alaska – 110 Stations

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

6 18 30 42 54 66 78 90 102 114 126 138 150 162 174 186

MA

E (K

ts)

Projection (hours)

Wind Speed (Kts) - MAE Overall (1440 Stations)

CCS GFS MOS WCOSS GFS MOS

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

6 18 30 42 54 66 78 90 102 114 126 138 150 162 174 186

MA

E (K

ts)

Projection (hours)

Wind Speed (Kts) - MAE Alaska (110 Stations)

CCS GFS MOS WCOSS GFS MOS

CCS GFS MOS vs. WCOSS GFS MOS May 9, 2013 – May 31, 2013 0000 UTC Cycle Weather Element: Metric: PoP 6 & PoP 12 Brier Score Projection Hours: 6hr – 192hr (Every 6 hrs) Station Sample: CONUS + OCONUS – 334 Stations

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

16.0%

18.0%

12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 180 192

Bri

er

Sco

re

Projection (Hours)

PoP 6 - Brier Score Overall (334 Stations)

CCS GFS MOS WCOSS GFS MOS

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

16.0%

18.0%

12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 180 192

Bri

er

Sco

re

Projection (Hours)

PoP 12 - Brier Score Overall (334 Stations)

CCS GFS MOS WCOSS GFS MOS

-2

-1.5

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 54 60 66 72 78 84

BIA

S (°

F)

Projection (Hours)

2M - Temperature (°F) - BIAS Overall (1440 Stations)

CCS NAM MOS WCOSS NAM MOS

-2

-1.5

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 54 60 66 72 78 84

BIA

S (°

F)

Projection (Hours)

2M - Temperature (°F) - BIAS Alaska (110 Stations)

CCS NAM MOS WCOSS NAM MOS

CCS NAM MOS vs. WCOSS NAM MOS May 9, 2013 – May 31, 2013 0000 UTC Cycle Weather Element: Metric: 2M - Temperature (°F) BIAS Projection Hours: 6hr – 84hr (Every 3 hrs) Station Sample: CONUS + OCONUS – 1440 Stations Alaska – 110 Stations

CCS NAM MOS vs. WCOSS NAM MOS May 9, 2013 – May 31, 2013 0000 UTC Cycle Weather Element: Metric: 2M - Temperature (°F) MAE Projection Hours: 6hr – 84hr (Every 3 hrs) Station Sample: CONUS + OCONUS – 1440 Stations Alaska – 110 Stations

2

3

4

5

6

6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 54 60 66 72 78 84

MA

E (°

F)

Projection (Hours)

2M - Temperature (°F) - MAE Overall (1440 Stations)

CCS NAM MOS WCOSS NAM MOS

2

3

4

5

6

6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 54 60 66 72 78 84

MA

E (°

F)

Projection (Hours)

2M - Temperature (°F) - MAE Alaska (110 Stations)

CCS NAM MOS WCOSS NAM MOS

CCS NAM MOS vs. WCOSS NAM MOS May 9, 2013 – May 31, 2013 0000 UTC Cycle Weather Element: Metric: 2M - Dewpoint(°F) BIAS Projection Hours: 6hr – 84hr (Every 3 hrs) Station Sample: CONUS + OCONUS – 1440 Stations Alaska – 110 Stations

-2

-1.5

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 54 60 66 72 78 84

BIA

S (°

F)

Projection (Hours)

2M - Dewpoint (°F) - BIAS Overall (1440 Stations)

CCS NAM MOS WCOSS NAM MOS

-2

-1.5

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 54 60 66 72 78 84

BIA

S (°

F)

Projection (Hours)

2M - Dewpoint (°F) - BIAS Alaska (110 Stations)

CCS NAM MOS WCOSS NAM MOS

CCS NAM MOS vs. WCOSS NAM MOS May 9, 2013 – May 31, 2013 0000 UTC Cycle Weather Element: Metric: 2M - Dewpoint(°F) MAE Projection Hours: 6hr – 84hr (Every 3 hrs) Station Sample: CONUS + OCONUS – 1440 Stations Alaska – 110 Stations

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

5

5.5

6

6.5

6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 54 60 66 72 78 84

MA

E (°

F)

Projection (Hours)

2M - Dewpoint (°F) - MAE Overall (1440 Stations)

CCS NAM MOS WCOSS NAM MOS

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

5

5.5

6

6.5

6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 54 60 66 72 78 84

MA

E (°

F)

Projection (Hours)

2M - Dewpoint (°F) - MAE Alaska (110 Stations)

CCS NAM MOS WCOSS NAM MOS

CCS NAM MOS vs. WCOSS NAM MOS May 9, 2013 – May 31, 2013 0000 UTC Cycle Weather Element: Metric: Daytime Max Temperature (°F) BIAS Projection Hours: 6hr – 84hr (Every 3 hrs) Station Sample: CONUS + OCONUS – 1440 Stations Alaska – 110 Stations

-2

-1.5

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

30 54 78

BIA

S (°

F)

Projection (Hours)

Daytime Max Temp (°F) - BIAS Overall (1440 Stations)

CCS NAM MOS WCOSS NAM MOS

-2

-1.5

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

30 54 78

BIA

S (°

F)

Projection (Hours)

Daytime Max Temp (°F) - BIAS Alaska (110 Stations)

CCS NAM MOS WCOSS NAM MOS

CCS NAM MOS vs. WCOSS NAM MOS May 9, 2013 – May 31, 2013 0000 UTC Cycle Weather Element: Metric: Daytime Max Temperature (°F) MAE Projection Hours: 6hr – 84hr (Every 3 hrs) Station Sample: CONUS + OCONUS – 1440 Stations Alaska – 110 Stations

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

5

5.5

6

6.5

30 54 78

MA

E (°

F)

Projection (Hours)

Daytime Max Temp (°F) - MAE Overall (1440 Stations)

CCS NAM MOS WCOSS NAM MOS

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

5

5.5

6

6.5

30 54 78

MA

E (°

F)

Projection (Hours)

Daytime Max Temp (°F) - MAE Alaska (110 Stations)

CCS NAM MOS WCOSS NAM MOS

CCS NAM MOS vs. WCOSS NAM MOS May 9, 2013 – May 31, 2013 0000 UTC Cycle Weather Element: Metric: Nighttime Min Temperature (°F) BIAS Projection Hours: 6hr – 84hr (Every 3 hrs) Station Sample: CONUS + OCONUS – 1440 Stations Alaska – 110 Stations

-2

-1.5

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

42 66 90

BIA

S (°

F)

Projection (Hours)

Nighttime Min Temp (°F) - BIAS Overall (1440 Stations)

CCS NAM MOS WCOSS NAM MOS

-2

-1.5

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

42 66 90

BIA

S (°

F)

Projection (Hours)

Nighttime Min Temp (°F) - BIAS Alaska (110 Stations)

CCS NAM MOS WCOSS NAM MOS

CCS NAM MOS vs. WCOSS NAM MOS May 9, 2013 – May 31, 2013 0000 UTC Cycle Weather Element: Metric: Nighttime Min Temperature (°F) MAE Projection Hours: 6hr – 84hr (Every 3 hrs) Station Sample: CONUS + OCONUS – 1440 Stations Alaska – 110 Stations

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

5

5.5

6

6.5

42 66 90

MA

E (°

F)

Projection (Hours)

Nighttime Min Temp (°F) - MAE Overall (1440 Stations)

CCS NAM MOS WCOSS NAM MOS

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

5

5.5

6

6.5

42 66 90

MA

E (°

F)

Projection (Hours)

Nighttime Min Temp (°F) - MAE Alaska (110 Stations)

CCS NAM MOS WCOSS NAM MOS

CCS NAM MOS vs. WCOSS NAM MOS May 9, 2013 – May 31, 2013 0000 UTC Cycle Weather Element: Metric: Wind Speed (Kts) BIAS Projection Hours: 6hr – 84hr (Every 3 hrs) Station Sample: CONUS + OCONUS – 1440 Stations Alaska – 110 Stations

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 54 60 66 72 78 84

Bia

s (K

ts)

Projection (hours)

Wind Speed (Kts) - BIAS Overall (1440 Stations)

CCS NAM MOS WCOSS NAM MOS

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 54 60 66 72 78 84

Bia

s (K

ts)

Projection (hours)

Wind Speed (Kts) - BIAS Alaska (110 Stations)

CCS NAM MOS WCOSS NAM MOS

CCS NAM MOS vs. WCOSS NAM MOS May 9, 2013 – May 31, 2013 0000 UTC Cycle Weather Element: Metric: Wind Speed (Kts) MAE Projection Hours: 6hr – 84hr (Every 3 hrs) Station Sample: CONUS + OCONUS – 1440 Stations Alaska – 110 Stations

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 54 60 66 72 78 84

MA

E (K

ts)

Projection (hours)

Wind Speed (Kts) - MAE Overall (1440 Stations)

CCS NAM MOS WCOSS NAM MOS

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 54 60 66 72 78 84

MA

E (K

ts)

Projection (hours)

Wind Speed (Kts) - MAE Alaska (110 Stations)

CCS NAM MOS WCOSS NAM MOS

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

16.0%

18.0%

12 18 24 30 36 42 48 54 60 66 72 78 84

Bri

er

Sco

re

Projection (Hours)

PoP 6 - Brier Score Overall (334 Stations)

CCS NAM MOS WCOSS NAM MOS

CCS NAM MOS vs. WCOSS NAM MOS May 9, 2013 – May 31, 2013 0000 UTC Cycle Weather Element: Metric: PoP 6 & PoP 12 Brier Score Projection Hours: 6hr – 84hr (Every 6 hrs) Station Sample: CONUS + OCONUS – 334 Stations

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

16.0%

18.0%

12 18 24 30 36 42 48 54 60 66 72 78 84

Bri

er

Sco

re

Projection (Hours)

PoP 12 - Brier Score Overall (334 Stations)

CCS NAM MOS WCOSS NAM MOS

Regional Verification of CCS NAM MOS vs. WCOSS NAM MOS

May 9, 2013 – May 31, 2013 0000 UTC cycle

Station Sample: Western - 239 Stations Central - 441 Stations Southern - 331 Stations Eastern - 308 Stations

Office of Science and Technology, Meteorological Development Lab Evaluation completed: 6/12/13

Weather Elements: Metrics: Projection Hours: 2M – Temperature (°F) BIAS 6hr – 84hr 2M – Dewpoint (°F) MAE

Regional Verification of CCS NAM MOS vs. WCOSS NAM MOS

Overall NAM MOS evaluations indicated bias differences between the WCOSS and CCS versions. The scores were further stratified to help identify any possible regional geographic variations in MOS performance.

Central Region Sites Eastern Region Sites Southern Region Sites Western Region Sites NWS Regions CWA Boundaries

MDL Verification Sites for CONUS (1,319 Total)

-2

-1.5

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 54 60 66 72 78 84

BIA

S (°

F)

Projection (Hours)

CCS vs. WCOSS 2M - Temperature (°F) - 0000 UTC NAM MOS - BIAS

May 9, 2013 - May 31, 2013 Western (239 Stations)

CCS NAM MOS WCOSS NAM MOS

-2

-1.5

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 54 60 66 72 78 84

BIA

S (°

F)

Projection (Hours)

CCS vs. WCOSS 2M - Temperature (°F) - 0000 UTC NAM MOS - BIAS

May 9, 2013 - May 31, 2013 Central (441 Stations)

CCS NAM MOS WCOSS NAM MOS

-2

-1.5

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 54 60 66 72 78 84

BIA

S (°

F)

Projection (Hours)

CCS vs. WCOSS 2M - Temperature (°F) - 0000 UTC NAM MOS - BIAS

May 9, 2013 - May 31, 2013 Eastern (308 Stations)

CCS NAM MOS WCOSS NAM MOS

-2

-1.5

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 54 60 66 72 78 84

BIA

S (°

F)

Projection (Hours)

CCS vs. WCOSS 2M - Temperature (°F) - 0000 UTC NAM MOS - BIAS

May 9, 2013 - May 31, 2013 Southern (331 Stations)

CCS NAM MOS WCOSS NAM MOS

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

5

6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 54 60 66 72 78 84

MA

E (°

F)

Projection (Hours)

CCS vs. WCOSS 2M - Temperature (°F) - 0000 UTC NAM MOS - MAE

May 9, 2013 - May 31, 2013 Western (239 Stations)

CCS NAM MOS WCOSS NAM MOS

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

5

6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 54 60 66 72 78 84

MA

E (°

F)

Projection (Hours)

CCS vs. WCOSS 2M - Temperature (°F) - 0000 UTC NAM MOS - MAE

May 9, 2013 - May 31, 2013 Central (441 Stations)

CCS NAM MOS WCOSS NAM MOS

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

5

6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 54 60 66 72 78 84

MA

E (°

F)

Projection (Hours)

CCS vs. WCOSS 2M - Temperature (°F) - 0000 UTC NAM MOS - MAE

May 9, 2013 - May 31, 2013 Eastern (308 Stations)

CCS NAM MOS WCOSS NAM MOS

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

5

6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 54 60 66 72 78 84

MA

E (°

F)

Projection (Hours)

CCS vs. WCOSS 2M - Temperature (°F) - 0000 UTC NAM MOS - MAE

May 9, 2013 - May 31, 2013 Southern (331 Stations)

CCS NAM MOS WCOSS NAM MOS

-2

-1.5

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 54 60 66 72 78 84

BIA

S (°

F)

Projection (Hours)

CCS vs. WCOSS 2M - Dewpoint (°F) - 0000 UTC NAM MOS - BIAS

May 9, 2013 - May 31, 2013 Western (239 Stations)

CCS NAM MOS WCOSS NAM MOS

-2

-1.5

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 54 60 66 72 78 84

BIA

S (°

F)

Projection (Hours)

CCS vs. WCOSS 2M - Dewpoint (°F) - 0000 UTC NAM MOS - BIAS

May 9, 2013 - May 31, 2013 Central (441 Stations)

CCS NAM MOS WCOSS NAM MOS

-2

-1.5

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 54 60 66 72 78 84

BIA

S (°

F)

Projection (Hours)

CCS vs. WCOSS 2M - Dewpoint (°F) - 0000 UTC NAM MOS - BIAS

May 9, 2013 - May 31, 2013 Eastern (308 Stations)

CCS NAM MOS WCOSS NAM MOS

-2

-1.5

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 54 60 66 72 78 84

BIA

S (°

F)

Projection (Hours)

CCS vs. WCOSS 2M - Dewpoint (°F) - 0000 UTC NAM MOS - BIAS

May 9, 2013 - May 31, 2013 Southern (331 Stations)

CCS NAM MOS WCOSS NAM MOS

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

5

6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 54 60 66 72 78 84

MA

E (°

F)

Projection (Hours)

CCS vs. WCOSS 2M - Dewpoint (°F) - 0000 UTC NAM MOS - MAE

May 9, 2013 - May 31, 2013 Western (239 Stations)

CCS NAM MOS WCOSS NAM MOS

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

5

6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 54 60 66 72 78 84

MA

E (°

F)

Projection (Hours)

CCS vs. WCOSS 2M - Dewpoint (°F) - 0000 UTC NAM MOS - MAE

May 9, 2013 - May 31, 2013 Central (441 Stations)

CCS NAM MOS WCOSS NAM MOS

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

5

6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 54 60 66 72 78 84

MA

E (°

F)

Projection (Hours)

CCS vs. WCOSS 2M - Dewpoint (°F) - 0000 UTC NAM MOS - MAE

May 9, 2013 - May 31, 2013 Eastern (308 Stations)

CCS NAM MOS WCOSS NAM MOS

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

5

6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 54 60 66 72 78 84

MA

E (°

F)

Projection (Hours)

CCS vs. WCOSS 2M - Dewpoint (°F) - 0000 UTC NAM MOS - MAE

May 9, 2013 - May 31, 2013 Southern (331 Stations)

CCS NAM MOS WCOSS NAM MOS

Verification of CCS GFS MOS vs. WCOSS GFS MOS

May 9, 2013 – May 31, 2013 0000 UTC cycle

Station Sample: Western Pacific – 15 Stations

Office of Science and Technology, Meteorological Development Lab Evaluation completed: 7/22/13

CCS GFS MOS vs. WCOSS GFS MOS May 9, 2013 – May 31, 2013 0000 UTC Cycle Weather Element: Metric: Temperature & Dewpoint BIAS Projection Hours: 6hr – 84hr Station Sample: Western Pacific – 15 Stations

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 54 60 66 72 78 84

BIA

S (°

F)

Projection (Hours)

2M - Temperature (°F) - BIAS Overall (15 Stations)

CCS GFS MOS WCOSS GFS MOS

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 54 60 66 72 78 84

BIA

S (°

F)

Projection (Hours)

2M - Dewpoint (°F) - BIAS Overall (15 Stations)

CCS GFS MOS WCOSS GFS MOS

CCS GFS MOS vs. WCOSS GFS MOS May 9, 2013 – May 31, 2013 0000 UTC Cycle Weather Element: Metric: Temperature & Dewpoint MAE Projection Hours: 6hr – 84hr Station Sample: Western Pacific – 15 Stations

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 54 60 66 72 78 84

MA

E (°

F)

Projection (Hours)

2M - Temperature (°F) - MAE Overall (15 Stations)

CCS GFS MOS WCOSS GFS MOS

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 54 60 66 72 78 84

MA

E (°

F)

Projection (Hours)

2M - Dewpoint (°F) - MAE Overall (15 Stations)

CCS GFS MOS WCOSS GFS MOS

Conclusion

• For the particular weather elements evaluated in this study, the verification scores for GFS MOS and NAM MOS forecasts generated on the CCS and WCOSS are very similar.

• While we don’t anticipate a significant impact, MDL cannot definitively state that GFS MOS and/or NAM MOS forecasts will not experience any negative effects whatsoever from the production switch to the WCOSS platform. – Since we’re relying upon gross verification statistics and very small sample

sizes, it is difficult to detect any systematic biases specific to the WCOSS transition.

– It is possible that there may be issues present during synoptic regimes or at times of the year not represented by this verification period.