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Volkswagen South America: Market with Perspective!
Volkswagen Group Americas Investor and Analyst ConferenceCarsten IsenseeCFO, Volkswagen do Brasil Ltda.
Chattanooga, 27 September 2011
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Disclaimer
This presentation contains forward-looking statements and information on the business development ofthe Volkswagen Group. These statements may be spoken or written and can be recognized by termssuch as expects, anticipates, intends, plans, believes, seeks, estimates, will or words
with similar meaning. These statements are based on assumptions relating to the development of theeconomies of individual countries, and in particular of the automotive industry, which we have made onthe basis of the information available to us and which we consider to be realistic at the time of going topress. The estimates given involve a degree of risk, and the actual developments may differ from those
forecast.Consequently, any unexpected fall in demand or economic stagnation in our key sales markets, such asin Western Europe (and especially Germany) or in the USA, Brazil or China, will have a correspondingimpact on the development of our business. The same applies in the event of a significant shift incurrent exchange rates relative to the US dollar, sterling, yen, Brazilian real, Chinese rinminbi and Czechkoruna.
If any of these or other risks occur, or if the assumptions underlying any of these statements prove
incorrect, the actual results may significantly differ from those expressed or implied by suchstatements.
We do not update forward-looking statements retrospectively. Such statements are valid on the date ofpublication and can be superceded.
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Market with perspective !
Agenda
B. The Automotive Market in South America
C. Volkswagen do Brasil
A. South America and Brazil Overview
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A. South America / Brazil Impressions
Key Facts
Macro Outlook
Challenges for Brazil
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Colombia
Peru
Chile
Uruguay
Paraguay
Venezuela GuyanaSuriname
French Guyana
Bolivia
Ecuador
Argentina
Brazil
South America - Impressions
http://www.google.com.br/imgres?imgurl=http://static2.linkatual.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/01/camisa-selecao-brasileira.jpg&imgrefurl=http://www.linkatual.com/selecao-brasileira-amistoso-franca.html&usg=__PGQnbMEN_v0MD3kOfrZtjP-G_fE=&h=375&w=500&sz=222&hl=pt-BR&start=7&zoom=1&tbnid=RbqZAh8dJrPkFM:&tbnh=98&tbnw=130&ei=VD5lTreDE4XWgQeynOCqCg&prev=/search%3Fq%3Dfotos%2Bda%2Bsele%25C3%25A7%25C3%25A3o%2Bbrasileira%26hl%3Dpt-BR%26sa%3DX%26tbm%3Disch%26prmd%3Divnsu&itbs=1 -
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South America - Country information
Country CapitalTerritory(Mio. Km2)
%Population
Mio.%
Population density
(inhabitants per Km2)GDP USD Bio
2010
Population density / 1,000
(Inhabitants)
Argentina Buenos Aires 2.8 15.53% 41.8 10.49% 14.9 370.3 214
Bolivia La Paz 1.1 6.16% 10.1 2.53% 9.2 19.4 52
Brazil Brasilia 8.5 47.78% 203.4 51.03% 23.9 2,090.3 146
Chile Santiago de Chile 0.8 4.25% 16.9 4.24% 21.1 203.3 171
Colombia Bogot 1.1 6.39% 44.7 11.21% 40.6 285.5 58
Ecuador Quito 0.3 1.59% 15.0 3.76% 50.0 58.9 58
Paraguay Asuncin 0.4 2.28% 6.5 1.63% 16.3 18.5 78
Peru Lima 1.3 7.21% 29.3 7.35% 22.5 152.8 54
Uruguay Montevideo 0.2 0.99% 3.3 0.83% 16.5 40.3 220
Venezuela Caracas 0.9 5.14% 27.6 6.92% 30.7 290.7 151
Total 17.4 100% 398.6 100% 22.9 3,530.0
Source: FMI, Welt-Blick.de (Status: July 2011), VDA Tatsachen und Zahlen, 74. Folge 2010;
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18,31019,989
30,161
2006 2008 2010
3,134 4,1134,793
2006 2008 2010
Source: IHS Global Insight World Car Industry Forecast, 03-2011
South America:Worldwide comparison (Cars and Lights) 2006 - 2010
in thousand cars
19,306
15,90613,973
2006 2008 2010
21,099 21,11418,367
2006 2008 2010
North America Europe
Asia and PacificSouth America
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No. 1 producer of Iron ore 3rd largest producer of Corn 22% of the worlds arable lands
No. 1 producer of Orange juice 3rd largest producer ofBauxite
80.3 million internet users
No. 1 producer/consumer of Coffee 3rd largest producer of pork Self sufficiency in oil, with a production
No. 1 producer of Chicken meat 3rd largest road network of 1.8 mio. barrel / day, being the 15th
No. 1 producer of Sugar 3rd largest footwear producer largest oil producer
No. 1 producer of Soybeans 6th largest grain producer Huge offshore Reservoirs in oil & gas
No. 1 maker of Regional Jets 8th largest chemical industry
2nd largest producer of Ethanol 9th largest steel maker
2nd largest producer of Manganese
2nd largest producer of beef
Brazil offers worldwide competitive strengths:Diversified industrial base and export platform
Source: B-FT Regional Treasury South America / Brazilian Steel Insittute / Abicalados / Abiquim / IBGE
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Source: Central Bank / IBGE
Brazil Macroeconomics: Solid base for sustainable growth
Consumer Inflation (INPC) - In % p.a.Interest Rate (SELIC) - In % p.a.
Exchange Rate - BRL / USD
Consumer Inflation (left axis) Interest Rate (left axis) Exchange Rate (right axis)
1.6
12.1
6.5
28.7
2.5
1.2
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-2.6% -3.3% -4.6%-6.0%
-9.1% -9.2% -9.5% -10.5% -10.6%
-32.4%
Brazil Spain Germany USA Portugal Ireland Italy Greece Japan
Gross Public Debt 2010(in % of GDP)
Fiscal Balance 2010(in % of GDP)
55.1% 60.1%83.2% 85.1% 91.6% 93.0% 96.2%
119.0%142.8%
220.3%
Brazil SpainGermany Euro Area USAPortugal IrelandItaly GreeceJapan
Fiscal Indicators: Comfortable position for Brazil
Source: Bloomberg / IMF / Central Banks
Euro Area
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2.7
5.7
4.0
5.2
7.5
Brazil export of primary goods and solid domestic market:Pillars for growth market convergence
Source: MDIC 2010 / IBGE
Strong domestic marketExport of raw material
Growthfactors
2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
(in Billion USD)
InternalDemand
ExternalDemand
Total GDP (%)
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
Commodities Total Export
Export/GDP %
12.0 13.2 14.6 13.4 12.7 11.8 12.0 9.6 9.8
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GDP Evolution: Top 5 Economies until 2020
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
1990 2000 2010 2020
USA USA USA China
Japan Japan China USA
Germany Germany Japan Japan
France Great Britain Germany India
Italy France France Brazil
Great Britain China Great Britain Germany
Canada Italy Italy France
Spain Canada Brazil Great Britain
Brazil Brazil India Russia
China Mexico Canada Italy
Source: Global Insight.
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B. Automotive
Development Automotive Sector
Potential to Grow
Evolution of Competition
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Uncertainty,
divestments and restructuresMacroeconomic
Stability
Phase 2: Phase 3:
High Volatility /
Emerging market
Phase1:
Evolution of the Brazilian Automotive Sector
(in Million vehicles)
4.0
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
Source: MDIC 2010 / IBGE
10 Years to recover
from 1997 sales levels
3.63.3
0.60.5
0.70.70.2
0.0
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New level/echelon for the Brazilian car industry:Over 5 Million units until 2018
Source: Roland Berger / PwC / JD Power / Global Insight
Forecast car industry50 % New customers in 2010
IndustryForecast
GlobalInsightNew car
buyerAgainbuyer
NewcustomerNew car
NewcustomerUsed car
Max
Min
0,02,5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
2010 2012 2014 2016 20180.0
(in Million units)
Automotive
SpendingPower
PwC JD Power
3.3 1.7 1.2 0.5
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Demographic Bonus
2 1.5 1 0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2
Men Women
2 1.5 1 0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2
Men Women
2 1.5 1 0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2
Men Women
1990 2010 2020
0 a 14 years15 a 64 years65 years or more
34.7%
60.5%
4.8%
24.1%
68.5%
7.4%
20.1%
70.7%
9.2%
146.8 193.1 207.0Total
Population(in Millions)
Brazil: Upside potential from demographic reshape until 2020
Source: IBGE / Bradesco
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30.0
16.1
42.5
11.4
30.5
16.7
42.1
10.6
25.8
15.8
46.4
12.1
24.4
16.7
45.9
13.0
21.8
15.3
48.9
14.0
19.4
14.3
51.2
15.1
18.8
13.7
52.7
14.8
17.1
13.1
54.5
15.3
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010*
A & B
> BRL 4,807
Class E
< BRL 804
Class D
from BRL 804
until BRL 1,115
Class C
from BRL 1,115
until BRL 4,807
* 2010 estimated on average trend
will lead to a much improved income redistribution!
Especially the C Class for the automotive industry
Source: IBGE
(in %)
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2001 2005 2010 2015 F
7.0
10.7
22.5
32.1
2001 2005 2010 2015 F
Positive household evolution:Potentially 10 Million new customers by 2015
Memo:Amount of households withspending power > EUR 11,000 p.a.(equivalent to the minimumpurchase price of a vehicle)
(in Millions)
Source: Roland Berger / Automotive Market Outlook
45.5 52.9 57.3 64.6TotalHouseholds
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Cars per 1,000 Inhabitants in Brazil
~ 200 Cars
Cars per 1,000 Inhabitants:
2009 2010
~ 67 Cars
Main growth for Brazil is expected in the northern Region
Source: Anfavea & Worldbank
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(in Million cars)
0,0
1,0
2,0
3,0
4,0
5,0
6,0
7,0
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2015
Colombia Chile Ecuador Peru Uruguay
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
Brazil
Argentina
Venezuela
Brazilian growth: Positive stimulus to neighboring economiesin South America
Source: Global Insight 2011-01
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Indaiatuba
S.B.Campo
S.C.Sul & S.J. Campos
Sumar
Taubat &S.B.Campo
SP SO PAULO
Anpolis
Catalo
GO GOISCE CEAR
Horizonte
BA BAHIA
Camaari
MG MINAS GERAIS
Sete Lagoas
Betim
Juiz de Fora
RJ RIO DE JANEIRO
Porto Real
Brazil: OEM production sites 2010
CE
BA
MG
RJSPPR
RS
GOGO
CE
BA
MG
SP
RS
PR
RJ
PR PARAN
So Josdos Pinhais RS RIO GRANDE DO SUL
Gravata
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CE CEAR
Horizonte
PE PERNAMBUCO
Goiana
MG MINAS GERAIS
Sete Lagoas
Betim
Juiz de Fora
RJ RIO DE JANEIRO
Porto Real
BA BAHIA
Camaari
Indaiatuba & Sorocaba
S.B.CampoS.C.Sul & S.J. Campos
Sumar
Taubat &S.B.Campo
SP SO PAULO
Piracicaba
Jacare
... until 2016 so far 7 new facilities in the pipeline !
CE
BA
MG
RJSPPR
RS
GO
GO
CE
BA
MG
SP
RS
PRRJ
Anpolis
Catalo
GO GOIS
Itumbiara
PEPE
Indaiatuba & Sorocaba
(not defined)
PR PARAN
So Josdos Pinhais
RS RIO GRANDE DO SUL
Gravata
Letter ofIntention(not confirmed)
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Additional production capacity of 1.5 Million cars in Brazil
3,800,000
5,300,000
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C. Volkswagen do Brasil
VW History
Sales Evolution
Brazilian Challenges
Volkswagen do Brasil Sustainability
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Present in Brazil since 1950
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Volkswagen Brazil Sales Evolution (vehicles)
Source: Anfavea
409,832
537,975585,186
684,381
> 2010
697,354
+ 300,000 (until 2010)
Memo I: Data is net of Truck & Bus Division, which has been sold in 2009 to MAN
Memo II:Considering only Cars & Lights Registrations
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22,8%23,2%
Rank 1 Rank 2 Rank 3 Rank 4 Rank 5 Rank 6 Rank 7 Rank 8 Rank 9 Rank 10
Argentina GermanyBrazil South Africa BelgiumChina TurkeyMexicoAustria Sweden
Brand Volkswagen - Market Share comparisonBase: August 2011
Source: Volkswagen
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Market Share Brazil - Cars & Lights
23.2% 22.9% 26.4% 29.0%
9.7% 10.1%10.1%
9.5%
20.6% 19.8%19.8% 18.5%
24.6% 24.5%22.7% 22.4%
21.9% 22.8% 20.9% 20.6%
2008 2009 2010 2011 Jan to Aug
Others
Competitor 3
Competitor 2
Competitor 1
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14.5%9.1%
1.4%
75.0%
B/C
A
A0
A00
Brazil - Market SegmentationSegment Distribution 2010
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Sales Profile Brazil - Cars & Light Commercials
23.0%
38.0%
53.0% 52.0%
39.0%
40.0%
35.0% 39.0%
34.0%
18.0%8.0% 4.0%
4.0% 4.0% 5.0%4.0%
2008 2009 2010 2011*
F inancing C ash Leasing C onsorcio
By type of Sale
Source: Volkswagen Bank / Megadata
2.0%
3.0%
18.0%
8.0%
15.0%
5.0%
8.0% 40.0%
Volkswagen Bank Ita/Unibanco BB/BV Finasa
ABN/Santander HSBC Safra Others
Financing Share by Bank
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TackleCusto Brasil
The main Brazilian Challenges
INFRASTRUCTURE / TAXES
RAW MATERIAL
LABOUR
http://www.revistaportuaria.com.br/site/?home=noticias&n=zzNzd&t=ii-forum-modais-sera-dia-24-setembro -
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Source:JP Power; Roland Berger
Brazil has one of the highest retail tax burden in the world (a)
11.6% 11.6% 11.6% 11.6% 11.6% 11.6% 11.6% 11.6% 11.6% 11.6% 11.6% 11.6%
12.0% 12.0% 12.0% 12.0% 12.0% 12.0% 12.0% 12.0% 12.0% 12.0% 12.0% 12.0%
37.0%
11.0%
41.0%
13.0%
43.0%
18.0%
48.0%
25.0%
55.0%
4.0%
34.0%
7.0%
a) Updated as per recent import protections announced by the Government
Sales taxes in Brazil [%] Sales taxes1) global comparison [%]
< 1.0 LEngine
(Flex / Gas)
1.0 2.0 LEngine
Flex Gas
> 2.0 LEngine
Flex Gas
Light
Commercial
29.7% 30.9%33.6%
37.1%
25.1%
43.5%43.6% 44.3%
46.0%
48.1%
41.0%
1) Based on mid-size passenger cars2) Federal Tax applied over i ndustrialed products on added value. Same concept as IVA (7% - 25%) / Production tax (Brazilian VAT)3) State Tax applied over added value. Same concept as IVA (12%) / State-owned purchase tax4) Federal-owned purchase tax / Federal Tax applied over revenue (11.6%)5) Average of California, Florida, Texas and Michigan
IPI
ICMS
PIS /
CONFINS
27.9%
5)
2)
3)
4)
For Local Production
For BU Imported (Except Mercosul / Mexico)
28.1%
19.0%14.5%
9.1%6.1%
43.2%
Brazil Brazil Germany India Japan USA5
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Import Taxes and Duties on Fully Built-Up Vehicles(imported from)
Source: Volkswagen
TAX RATE COUNTRIES
0%
Mercosul:
Argentina
Uruguay
Paraguay
0% Mexico
35% Europe
35%
Others:
Colombia
Ecuador
Peru
Venezuela
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Plants
VW do BrasilLocal Material 88%
CKD 10%
Dir. Import 2%
Supplier base in South America - Material management
Local Material 50%
CKD 35%
Direct Import 15%
VW Argentina
Numbers of Suppliers
544336
208
Numbers of Suppliers
14073
67
~ 75% of turnover managed by global suppliers
Total GlobalSuppliers
LocalSuppliers
Total GlobalSuppliers
LocalSuppliers
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Labour SkillsGraduated engineer yearly
Investment in R&D (% of sales)
Annual investment per student in education (USD)
Brazil needs to invest in education
30,000 400,000
1.02% 2.68%
2,080 7,325 8,270 9,312
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Competitive advantage for VW in Brazil
Cost-driven
Restructure
Turn VW SAM into the mostcompetitive company based ongroup technologies:
Use of group car platform; Use group powertrain;
Use of group electronicplatforms
Process reengineering plusPortfolio renewal overexisting Platforms:
Gol G5/Voyage;
Saveiro SC/Saveiro DC; Saveiro Cross/Fox; CrossFox/Suran;
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Biggest dealer network (620 Dealers) with adequate geographical country coverage
Nearness between VW production facilities and the main markets Solid compliance with Brazilian and Mercosul content throughout VW production processes Strong financial partner with VW FS with an excellent infrastructur Ample and well diversified Product Portfolio with 21 different models
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Sustainability
Volkswagen do Brasil
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Sustainability
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APPENDIX
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South America production: What is where produced ?
VW Parati
ANCHIETA TAUBATVW New Fox 2D
VW Golf
CURITIBAVW - Gol G5
VN Kombi
VW Polo Hatch VW Voyage
VW Gol G4
VW Polo Sedan
PACHECOVW NewSpacefox/Suran
VN Amarok DC
VN Saveiro CE
VN Saveiro CS
VW New Fox 4D
VW New Crossfox
Turntable
VN Amarok SC
VW SuranCross
VN Saveiro Cross VW NewSpacefox/Suran
Temporary
Local Produced Models
13
VWB i d Wh i i d f h ?
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VWB imported cars: What is imported from where ?Germany Mexico Slovakia
VW Passat CC VW Beetle
VW Tiguan
VW New Jetta
VW Jetta Variant
VW TouaregVW Passat
VW Passat Variant
Imported Models
8
B ili C l B k i h di il bili
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Compulsory Deposits:
- Applied for Banks with Time Deposits over BRL 10 Billions Increased from 20% to25% (applicable for the delta in excess above limit);
- Retail Bank Accounts Cash deposits from Individuals forced banks to freeze 12% withthe Central Bank (vis-a-vis the previous 8%)
Vehicles Financing:
- Relevant Net Worth Ratio increased from 11% to 16.5% (above Basle III)
Brazilian Central Bank measures to tighten credit availability(since 12/2010)
C di C i i ff i V hi l Fi i
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Credit Constraint actions affecting Vehicle Financing(since 12/2010) PRIOR
SITUATIONCURRENTSITUATION
Down-paymentCapital (*)
RequirementDown-payment
Capital (*)Requirement
Retail Financing
Installments:
6 24 months
No Restriction 11.0%
No changes
25 36 monthsless than 20%
more than 20%
16.5%
11.0%
37 48 monthsless than 30%
more than 30%
16.5%
11.0%
49 60 monthsless than 40%
more than 40%
16.5%
11.0%
61 months on all from 11.0% to 16.5%
(*) Net Worth / Assets Ratio Credit Availability:
Example: Car Financing for 100,00:- Prior = 11.0 (Net Worth) / 89.0 (Other Funding Sources)- Current = 16.5 (Net Worth) / 83.5 (Other Funding Sources)
Source: Volkswagen
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Volkswagen South America: Market with Perspective!Volkswagen Group Americas Investor and Analyst Conference
Carsten IsenseeCFO, Volkswagen do Brasil Ltda.
Chattanooga, 27 September 2011
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