05/27/2010 v.29 draft – do not cite or quote for npc study discussion only 1 national petroleum...
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05/27/2010 v.29DRAFT – DO NOT CITE OR QUOTE
For NPC Study Discussion Only1
National Petroleum CouncilFuture Transportation Fuels Study
Proposed Coordinating Subcommittee Conference Call
May 27, 2010
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Safety
22
05/27/2010 v.29DRAFT – DO NOT CITE OR QUOTE
For NPC Study Discussion Only
Antitrust Reminders – NPC Studies
• Remember the Antitrust Guidelines, and don’t– Coordinate your companies’ plans, prices, outputs– Disclose your company’s non-public information– Use the study process to create competitive harm
• Check with counsel before you– Collect or discuss non-public data– Evaluate public data about future prices and costs– Discuss topics about whose legality you’re unsure
• Antitrust resources include: your lawyer, and– Mike Young (Anadarko) 832-636-7555– Doug Melin (Marathon) 419-421-3265– Jim Haynes (Chevron) 925-842-1298– Courtney Lynch (Chevron) 925-842-6474 – Kenly Webster (NPC) 202-898-0780
05/27/2010 v.29
CSC Meeting Attendees
Linda Capuano, Chair Marathon Oil Corporation
Michael Leister, Asst Chair Marathon Oil Corporation
Andy Oliver, Secretary National Petroleum Council
Joseph Caggiano, Alt for S. Shariq Yosufazai Chevron Corporation
Supply Task Group Chair
Deanne Short, Demand Task Group Chair Caterpiller
Stephen Brand, Technology Task Group Chair ConocoPhillips
Steven Hart, Member ExxonMobil Refining & Supply
Deron Lovaas, Member Natural Resources Defense Council
Jan Mares, Member Resources for the Future
Margaret Montana, Member Shell Downstream, Inc.
Chris Sultemeier, Member Walmart
Todd Werpy, Member Archer Daniels Midland Company
Nelson Almond, Alt Asst to Chair Marathon Petroleum Company LLC
Ken Croy Marathon Oil Corporation
Clay Bretches/Scott Moore Anadarko Petroleum Corporation
Courtney Lynch, Alt for Doug Melin Chevron Corporation
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Agenda
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CSC Meeting AgendaThursday 11:00 AM to 1:00 PM EST
SafetyAnti-trust Reminders A. OliverReview/Confirm Meeting Notes N. AlmondCalendar N. AlmondAction Item Review N. AlmondReport Outs
– Coordinating Subcommittee L. Capuano• NPC View of DOE Roles M. Nichols• June 10th Executive Committee Presentation
– Demand Task Group D. Short– Supply & Infrastructure Task Group S. Yosufzai– Technology Task Group S. Brand
• ARPA-E Review – Biofuels Sub Task Group T. Binder
New Business – Round Robin AllSummarize New Action Items N. Almond
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Coordinating Sub-Committee Calendar
Date Time (EST) Highlight
Recurring Meetings• Tues 2:00 pm (30 Min) CSC/Supply & Infrastructure• Tues 3:00 pm (30 min) CSC/Demand• Tues 4:00 pm (30 min) CSC/Bio Fuels• Wed 10:00 am (30 min) CSC/Technology• Thu 11:00 am – 1:00 pm Weekly CSC call• Fri 9:30 am Weekly Fuels/Resource Chair one-on-oneDetails• June 9 (W) 8:30-5:30 CSC meeting in Washington - One Day• June 10 (Th) 10:00-12:00 Executive Committee call• July 26-27 (M-T) 8:00-5:00 CSC in Houston - Marriott Bush International• Sept 14-15 (Tentative) Full National Petroleum Council Meeting• Sept 20-22 (M-W) CSC meeting in Washington – Three Days• Nov (TBD) CSC meeting in Washington – Two Days• Nov (TBD) Executive Committee – Two hour conf. callResources Study Dates for Reference• Thursday (PM) Weekly Resource CSC• June 2, 2010 Resources CSC meeting• July 2010 Resources Executive Committee• Sept 2010 Resources Executive Committee
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Coordinating Sub-committee and Task Group Timeline
Apr-10 May-10 Jun-10 Jul-10 Aug-10 Sep-10 Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11
Coordinating Subcommittee Meetings
Supply & Infrastructure Task Group Supply & InfrastructureTechnology Task Group Technology
Biofuels Subgroup BiofuelsFossil Liquids Subgroup Fossil LiquidsElectric Subgroup ElectricNatural Gas Subgroup Natural GasEngine/Vehicle Subgroup Engine /VehicleNew Fuels Subgroup New Fuels
Define Fuel Characteristics of Interest
Demand Task Group Demand
Integration and Iterations of ScenariosDemand Task Group DemandSupply & Infrastructure Task Group Supply & InfrastructureTechnology Task Group
Subgroups
Study Activities
Communication and Outreach
TechnologySubgroups
Base Case and Acceleration Analysis
Develop and Pilot Sensitivity Analysis / Scenarios
Integrate and Iterate
Policy Insights - Report Validation and Review
Communications and Outreach
Base Case and Acceleration Analysis (Discovery)
Validate, Review and Document
Develop and Pilot Sensitivity Analysis / Scenarios
Provide Prel Findings to the Resources Study
Receive Prel Findings from Resources Study
Staffing
Study Meetings
NPC Council Meeting
Executive Committee Meeting
Staffing of Task Groups and Subgroups
Submit Draft and Final Report to Study Committee
Characteristics
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ARPA-E Review
Technology Task Group
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Why is ARPA-E important to the FTF study?
10
• Energy Secretary Chu highlighted ARPA-E in this supplemental letter
• These are examples of technology breakthroughs that would dramatically change the cost curves and the 2050 fuel mix
• Virtually none of these technologies are considered in supply/demand energy forecasts
• Many ARPA-E funded technologies need to be considered by sub groups and little, outside of ARPA-E applications, will have been documented
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ARPA-E Funded Projects relevant to FTF Study (1 of 2)
11
Project Technology Description Organisation Contact FTF subgroup
Catalytic biocrude production in a novel short-contact time reactor
Single-step catalytic biomass pyrolysis RTI International David Dayton Biofuels
Conditionally Activated Enzymes Expressed in Cellulosic Energy Crops
Cell wall degrading enzymes produced at high concentration within plants
Agrivida Michael Raab Biofuels
High Yielding, Low Input Energy Crops New varieties of energy grasses Ceres Roger Pennell Biofuels
MacroAlgae Butanol Isobutanol from seaweed Du Pont, Butamax Michael Grady Biofuels
Scaling and Commercialization of Algae Harvesting Technologies
More energy efficient algae harvesting dewatering and drying system
Univenture / Algaeventure Systems
Ross Youngs Biofuels
Sustainable Cyanobacteria Designed for Solar-Powered Highly Efficient Production of Biofuels
Modify synechocystis to convert sunlight and carbon dioxide into fatty acids
Arizona State University
Willem Vermaas Biofuels/
A Genetically Tractable Microalgal Platform for Advanced Biofuel Production
Modifying an acquatic microorganism, Chlamydomonas, to generate feedstock for the production of biofuels
Iowa State University Martin Spalding Biofuels/
Shewanella as an Ideal Platform for Producing Hydrocarbon Biofuels
Engineer Shewanella bacteria to produce higher levels of hydrocarbons from carbon dioxide, thus removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere
University of Minnesota
Lawrence Wackett
Biofuels
Towards Scale Solar Conversion of CO2 and Water Vapor to Hydrocarbon
Sunlight. Carbon dioxide and water vapour are combined to create hydrocarbon fuels
Penn State University
Craig Grimes Post 2050 Fuels
Quaternary Phosphonium Based Hydroxide Exchange Membranes
Fuel cells. New class of hydroxide exchange membranes that can eliminate the use of platinum and replace it with nickel and silver
UC Riverside Yushan Yan Post 2050 Fuels
05/27/2010 v.29
ARPA-E Funded Projects relevant to FTF Study (2 of 2)
12
Project Technology Description Organisation Contact FTF subgroup
Sustainable, High Energy Density, Low Cost Electrochemical Energy Storage Metal Air
Battery- Metal Air Iconic Liquid. Air cathode, iconic liquid electrolyte, anode (M)
Arizona State University Cody Friesen Electric
Gallium Nitride Advanced Power Semiconductor & Packaging
Electrical energy conversion device that will improve cost and energy efficiency of hybrid/electric
Delphi Automotive Systems LLC
Han Lee Electric
High Energy Density Lithium Batteries
Lithium batteries using silicon carbon nano-composite anodes
Envia Systems Herman Lopez Electric
Low Cost, High Energy and Power Density, Nanotube-Enhanced Ultracapacitors
Combining ultracapacitors (made of carbon nanotubes) and batteries
FastCap Riccardo Signorelli
Electric
Silicon Coated Nanofiber Paper as a Lithium Ion Anode
Silicon-coated carbon nanofiber for use in lithium ion batteries
Inorganic Specialists David Firsich Electric
High Energy Permanent Magnets for Hybrid Vehicles and Alternative Energy
Develop materials that can be used to fabricate the next generation of permanent magnets with magnetic energy density 2x higher than the current value of the strongest Nd-Fe-B magnets
University of Delaware George Hadjipanayis
Electric
Upgrading Refinery Off-gas to High-Octane Alkylate
Technology to make productive use of Refinery off -gas
Exelus Systems Mitrajit Mukherjee Fuels
Wave Disc Engine Novel generator that uses 60% of fuel for propulsion (vs. 15%) for use in hybrid automobile engines
Michigan State University Norbert Meuller Engine
Lightweight Thermal Energy Recovery System
System for recovering waste heat in automobiles using shape memory alloys to increase fuel economy
General Motors Alan Browne
05/27/2010 v.29
Future Transportation Fuels Study Action Items
•Refer to attached “Action Items Listing – Dated May 24, 2010”
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Future Transportation Fuels Study Core Committee Structure
Study Committee LeadershipChair Clarence Cazalot (Marathon)Government Cochair Dan Poneman (DOE)Alternate Gov Cochair Kristina Johnson (DOE)Supply & Infrastructure Vice Chair John Watson (Chevron)Demand Vice Chair Jim Owens (Caterpillar)Technology Vice Chair John Deutch (MIT)Secretary Marshall Nichols (NPC)
Supply & Infrastructure Task GroupChair S Yosufzai (Chevron)Govt. Cochair C Difiglio (DOE)Alt. Govt. Cochair T. White (DOE)Asst. Chair J Caggiano (Chevron)Secretary TBD (NPC)
Coordinating Subcommittee LeadershipChair Linda Capuano (Marathon)Government Cochair Steve Koonin (DOE)Alternate Government Cochair David Sandalow (DOE)Assistant Chair Mike Leister (Marathon)Supply & Infrastructure Task Group Chair Shariq Yosufzai (Chevron)Demand Task Group Chair Deanne Short (Caterpillar)Technology Task Group Chair Stephen Brand (ConocoPhillips)Secretary Andy Oliver (NPC)
Demand Task GroupChair D Short (Caterpillar)Govt. Cochair J Conti (DOE)Alt. Govt. Cochair P. Holtberg (DOE)Asst. Chair TBDSecretary TBD (NPC)
Technology Task GroupChair S Brand (CoP)Govt. Cochair J Beaudry-Losique (DOE)Alt. Govt. Cochair TBD (DOE)Asst. Chair TBDSecretary TBD (NPC)
05/27/2010 v.29
Future Transportation Fuels Coordinating Sub-Committee Rosteras of May 11, 2010
Alternate
Chair Linda Capuano Marathon Oil
Gov’t Co-Chair Steve Koonin Department of Energy (DOE) Avi Gopstein
Alt. Gov’t Co-Chair David Sandalow Department of Energy (DOE) Carmen Difliglio
Asst. Chair Mike Leister Marathon Oil Nelson Almond
Demand Task Group Chair Deanne Short Caterpillar
Supply & Infrastructure Task Group Chair Shariq Yosufzai Chevron Joseph Caggiano
Technology Task Group Chair Stephen Brand ConocoPhillips
BioFuels Subgroup Chair Todd Werpy Archer Daniels Midland (ADM) Tom Binder
Fossil Liquids Subgroup Chair Steve Hart ExxonMobil Gene Tunison
Electric Subgroup Chair Bill Reinert Toyota
Natural Gas Subgroup Chair TBD
New Fuels Subgroup Chair Targeted for July
Engine/Vehicle Subgroup Chair Alan Taub General Motors
Member Arthur Rypinski Department of Transportation
Member Chris Sultemeier Wal-Mart
Member Mitch Jackson FedEx
Member Paul Sankey Deutsche Bank Adam Sieminski
Member Peggy Montana Shell Claudia Kolbinger
Member Jan Mares Resources for the Future
Member Deron Lovaas Natural Resources Defense Council Roland Hwang
Member Richard Newell EIA John Conti
Member Matt Rogers Department of Energy (DOE)
05/27/2010 v.29
Secretary Chu’s Request Letter – September 19, 2009Secretary Chu’s Supplemental Question – April 30, 2010Summary: Secretary Chu’s RequestOperating PrinciplesGuiding QuestionsFuel Clusters-Technology-Supply ChainCluster In a Practical WayTask Group Composition MatrixDOE Organization of Future Transportation Fuels ParticipantsKey Milestones for NPC Resource and Fuels Studies Reference Material From Resources Study
Appendix
16
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Secretary Chu’s Request Letter – September 19, 2009
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Secretary Chu’s Supplemental Question – April 30, 2010
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For NPC Study Discussion Only19
Summary: Secretary Chu’s Request
• Study Future Transportation Fuels prospects through 2030 for auto, truck, air, rail and waterborne transport
• Address fuel demand, supply, infrastructure, and technology
• Advise on policy options and pathways for integrating new fuels and vehicles into the marketplace, including infrastructure development
– Address the transition to an expanded suite of reliable, secure and clean, low-carbon transportation fuels
– Evaluating options, risks, and consequences
• Factors to consider include– Technological advances– Manufacturing, distribution and infrastructure– Market dynamics and economic competitiveness– Cost/benefit tradeoffs– Customer expectations and acceptance– Environmental, e.g., impact on carbon, land and water
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For NPC Study Discussion Only20
Operating Principles
• Scope then execute– Develop a detailed scope of work for each task group before commencing work
• Diversify thought– Identify and involve a broad and diverse set of interests to participate in the study to
maximize input and acceptance
• Promote consensus based leadership
• Maximize the use of prior studies– Provide a broad review of current research– Conduct new studies only as needed
• Examine the facts then address policy– Advance basic analytical work sufficiently to reach consensus on the essential facts– Policy recommendation based upon an agreed upon factual environment
• Assess policy through three lenses– Environment– Economic– Security
• Integrate policy with NPC Resource Development study as necessary
• Plan communication and outreach – at inception and completion of the study
20
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For NPC Study Discussion Only21
Guiding Questions
1. Define criteria for 2030 transportation fuels and relative improvement– Environment less GHG, land and water use– Security available resources, reliable infrastructure– Economic capital investment, operating costs, achievable at scale,
competitive,subsidy requirements
2. Describe 2030 baseline for transportation fuels based upon available studies
3. Identify technological advances, changes in supply, infrastructure and demand that could accelerate the transition to a more environmentally friendly, secure and economically competitive fuel mix
4. Provide insight on government and industry investments which could increase the probability of technological advances
5. Provide insight on the environment impacts such as GHG, water and land use
6. Provide insight on acceptance of these accelerated transportation fuels
7. Consider 2050 – describe the potential 2030 interim states or scenarios which could accelerate progress to a more advanced fuels mix by 2050
21
05/27/2010 v.29NPC Draft – Do Not Cite or Quote
FEEDSTOCK / RAW
MATERIALS
FEEDSTOCKDISTRIBUTION
CONVERSION / MANUFACTURING
PRODUCTDISTRIBUTION
FUEL CLUSTERS
Fossil Hydrocarbon
Biofuels
Natural Gas
Electricity
Post-2050 Fuels
APPLICATION/ END USE
Auto
Truck
Rail
Water
Air
31
2
Classify fuels into clusters
Trace each cluster through baseline and alternative pathways along the supply chain -- use various assumptions about technology, volumes, infrastructure, unit costs, policy, etc.
Connect supply inputs to end-use options
Technology
Fuel Clusters -Technology - Supply Chain (Simple Flowchart)
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Supply & Infrastructure DemandTechnology
Cluster In a practical Way
Task Groups
FossilLiquids
Electric 2050 FuelsBiofuels Natural Gas
Fuel Clusters
Transportation Clusters
Auto Rail AirBus Truck Water
Cross Cutting Topics
Anti-Trust Communication GHG/CarbonPolicy Security Environment
Pipeline
Engine Clusters
Internal Combustion
Electric Turbine
Passenger Freight
Land Air Water
2050 Engines
EconomicFinancial
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Task Group Composition Matrix
Demand
Supply & Infrastructure
Technology
Potential Task Group MembersGov’t Resource
SuppliersDistributors (Resource & Product)
Resource Processing/ Conversion
Auto Makers/Component Suppliers
Non-auto Engines/ Prime Movers
Interest Groups/ NGO’sIndustry Association
Universities/ Laboratories/Technical Consortia
Consultancies/Professional Societies
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Office of the SecretaryDr. Steven Chu, Secretary
Daniel B. Poneman,Deputy Secretary
Office of the SecretaryDr. Steven Chu, Secretary
Daniel B. Poneman,Deputy Secretary
Office of theUnder Secretary
Dr. Kristina M. JohnsonUnder Secretary
Office of theUnder Secretary
Dr. Kristina M. JohnsonUnder Secretary
Office of theUnder Secretary for Science
Dr. Steven E. KooninUnder Secretary for Science
Office of theUnder Secretary for Science
Dr. Steven E. KooninUnder Secretary for Science
Assistant Secretary for Energy Efficiency & Renewable Energy
Catherine R. Zoi
Assistant Secretary for Energy Efficiency & Renewable Energy
Catherine R. Zoi
Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary
Dr. Henry C. Kelly
Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary
Dr. Henry C. Kelly
Deputy Assistant Secretary, Renewable
Energy
Jacques Beaudry-Losique
Deputy Assistant Secretary, Renewable
Energy
Jacques Beaudry-Losique
Assistant Secretary for Fossil Energy
Dr. James J. Markosky
Assistant Secretary for Fossil Energy
Dr. James J. Markosky
Deputy Assistant Secretary for Oil &
Natural Gas
Christopher Smith
Deputy Assistant Secretary for Oil &
Natural Gas
Christopher Smith
Energy Information Administration
Dr. Richard G. NewellAdministrator
Energy Information Administration
Dr. Richard G. NewellAdministrator
Office of Policy &International Affairs
David B. SandalowAssistant Secretary for Policy
& International Affairs
Office of Policy &International Affairs
David B. SandalowAssistant Secretary for Policy
& International Affairs
Deputy Assistant Secretary for Policy
Analysis
Dr. Carmen Difiglio
Deputy Assistant Secretary for Policy
Analysis
Dr. Carmen Difiglio
Office of the Chief of Staff
Matthew C. RogersSenior Advisor to the
Secretary
Office of the Chief of Staff
Matthew C. RogersSenior Advisor to the
Secretary
Office of Integrated Analysis & Forecasting
John C. ContiDirector
Office of Integrated Analysis & Forecasting
John C. ContiDirector
Immediate Office of theUnder Secretary for
Science
Avi GopsteinSenior Advisor
Immediate Office of theUnder Secretary for
Science
Avi GopsteinSenior Advisor
Office of Fossil Energy, Environmental Science
& Policy Analysis
Nancy L. JohnsonDirector
Office of Fossil Energy, Environmental Science
& Policy Analysis
Nancy L. JohnsonDirector
DOE Organization of Future Transportation Fuels Participants
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Key Milestones for NPC Resource and Fuels Studies
Resource Study Fuels Study
Review Proposed Study Plan - Executive Committee1 Meeting/Call (S-2/S-3) April 2010 Mid June 2010
Renew NPC Membership (S-1) May 2010
NPC Request/DOE Approval to Establish Study Committee2 with Proposed Committee Membership (NPC Chair/S-2). NPC Chair Appoints Committee Membership and Work Formally Commences.
May 2010 July 2010
Study Committee Review/Approval of Study Plan May/June 2010 (electronic) July 2010 (electronic)
CSC Updates to Executive Committee (S-2/S-3) July and Sept 2010 June and November 2010
Full NPC Meeting - Progress of Studies and Interactions with Study Leaders (e.g., possible Resources Study Committee Meeting and Joint Study Leadership Dinner on Preceding Day) (S-1, S-2/S-3)
September 2010
2-Study Integration and Outreach/Communication Ongoing Ongoing
Update on Initial Findings - Executive Committee Meeting/Call (S-2/S-3) November 2010 February 2011
Resource Study Committee Review/Approval of Draft Report (S-2/S-3) Janurary/February 2011
Resource Study Draft Report to NPC Membership (NPC) February 2011 (electronic)
Full NPC Meeting – Approval/Submittal of Final Resource Study Report by NPC, Update on Fuels Study, and Interactions with Study Leaders (e.g., possible Fuels Study Committee Meeting and Joint Study Leadership Dinner on Preceding Day) (S-1, S-2/S-3) March 2011
Fuels Study Committee Review/Approval of Draft Report (S-2/S-3) TBD
Fuels Study Draft Report to NPC Membership (NPC) TBD
Full NPC Meeting – Approval/Submittal of Final Fuels Study Report by NPC and Update on Resource Study Outreach (S-1, S-2/S-3) October 2011
Post Report Outreach and DOE Reply (NPC and DOE) April-May 2011 Nov-Dec 2011
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Reference Material From Resources Study
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Overlapping Areas – Per Resource Study Presentation
• Natural gas use as a transportation fuel will be examined in the transportation study. Natural gas transportation demand (direct and indirect use) will be incorporated into the resource study.
• Oil demand for the U.S. economy is predominately for transportation which will be covered in the transportation fuels study. The resource study will provide a high-level overview of oil demand for completeness.
• All conventional and unconventional North American natural gas and oil resources and production, including infrastructure needed to bring supply to the refinery or city-gate, will be addressed in the resource study.
*Source: “Resources Study – Draft Integration Plan April 19, 2010”
05/27/2010 v.29 *Source: “Resources Study – Draft Integration Plan April 19, 2010”
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