1. 2 3copyright ibm 2007 life on an instrumented planet colin harrison ibm corporate strategy...
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3Copyright IBM 2007
Life on an Instrumented Planet
Colin HarrisonIBM Corporate Strategy
Member, IBM Academy of Technology
Copyright IBM 2008
4
Agenda
• It’s a brave new world…• …with new challenges• What roles can IT play in this?• The Instrumented Planet• People, Places, and Data• Summary
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Agenda
• It’s a brave new world…• …with new challenges• What roles can IT play in this?• The Instrumented Planet• People, Places, and Data• Summary
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In the beginning there was paper…
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Then came information technology….
Institutional• Social Security• Credit card records• Telephone records• Tax records• Bank records (deposits,
loans, transactions, credit history)
• Passport views & visas• Travel records (airlines)• Toll records• Employment records• Traffic violations• Criminal records• Video surveillance
Personal• email• Click histories• Search/query histories• Purchase histories• Download histories• Explicit preferences/profiles• Implicit preferences• Networks (YouTube, Xing….)• Expressions (Blogs, Wikis…)• Intentions
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This also applies to “real-world” information
Environmental• Atmosphere (temperature,
humidity, velocity, pollution, cloud cover, 4D)
• Hydrological (depth, flow, temperature, turbidity, pollution,salinity…, 3-4D)
• Oceanographic (depth, flow, temperature, wave height, surge height, salinity, pollution, tsunami, fisheries…, 3-4D)
• Vegetation (forests, grasslands, deserts, agriculture…, 2-3D)
• Fauna (large mammal tracking…, 3D)
• Infrastructure (structural integrity, performance, congestion…, 3D)
Societal• Financial trading• Commodity trading• Employment• Production• Transportation• Energy consumption (gross &
individual)• Water consumption (gross &
individual)• GHG emissions• Carbon trading• Traffic movement• Supply chains• Inventories
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Process Innovation…
New Insight enabling…
New Data drives…
Data Capture & Control• Move data intelligently• Execute local commands• Run distributed operational logic• Integrate wide range of device
Manage Distributed Device Infrastructure• Discovery of devices and sensors• Remote configuration, updating, “no touch”• Monitoring
Data Capture & Control• Move data intelligently• Execute local commands• Run distributed operational logic• Integrate wide range of device
Manage Distributed Device Infrastructure• Discovery of devices and sensors• Remote configuration, updating, “no touch”• Monitoring
Event Processing & Services• Complex event processing• Services such as: Data Aggregation, Geographic
information, Identification and Association, Condition, Monitoring, Command and Permission, Persistence
Data Modeling & Integration• Domain specific information models• Interoperable information framework• Integration with legacy data• Federated data management
Analytics• Domain specific analytic applications• Apply and develop mathematical models• Provide performance dashboards
Event Processing & Services• Complex event processing• Services such as: Data Aggregation, Geographic
information, Identification and Association, Condition, Monitoring, Command and Permission, Persistence
Data Modeling & Integration• Domain specific information models• Interoperable information framework• Integration with legacy data• Federated data management
Analytics• Domain specific analytic applications• Apply and develop mathematical models• Provide performance dashboards
Business Optimization• Model business processes for optimization• Apply mathematical optimization techniques• Optimize assets and processes
Business Process Services• Event driven SOA processes (i.e. traceability)• Sense & respond dynamics• Enterprise application integration• Align with business strategy
Process Integration• Extend legacy and enable new business
processes• Monitor business processes• Provide information to people• Improve operational logic and business rules
Business Optimization• Model business processes for optimization• Apply mathematical optimization techniques• Optimize assets and processes
Business Process Services• Event driven SOA processes (i.e. traceability)• Sense & respond dynamics• Enterprise application integration• Align with business strategy
Process Integration• Extend legacy and enable new business
processes• Monitor business processes• Provide information to people• Improve operational logic and business rules
… within a “backplane” of Scalability, Security, Privacy & Standards
New Data, New Insight, New Processes
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Agenda
• It’s a brave new world…• …with new challenges• What roles can IT play in this?• The Instrumented Planet• People, Places, and Data• Summary
IBM Research
© 2007 IBM Corporation 11
Energy Prices and Reserves
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006
Oil (dated Brent)
Gas basket
Coal basket
Weighted average
Index 1991=100
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006
Average 1979-85 $30.40
Average 1986-99 $17.86
Average 2000-04 $29.01
Brent equivalent 1973-2006 (money-of-the-day)
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
Oil Gas Coal
R/P Ratio 41 yrs.
R/P Ratio 67 yrs.
R/P Ratio 164 yrs.
Proven Proven
ProvenYet to Find find
Yet to Find find
Yet to Find
UnconventionalUnconventional
Reserv
es &
Resou
rces (
bn
boe)
Reserves/Production (R/P) ratio - If the reserves remaining at the end of any year are divided by the production in that year, the result is the length of time that those remaining reserves would last if production were were to continue at that level.
Oil Gas Coal
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Oil and metal availability is also becoming an issue…
• We or may not have reached “peak oil”• All of the copper in ore, plus all of the copper
currently in use, is required to bring the world to the level of the developed nations for power transmission and construction.
• Platinum risks depletion because it is difficult to recover from catalytic converters and only located in specific sites.
• At present rates of consumption, minerals due to run out within 50 years are copper, lead, mercury, nickel, gallium, tin and zinc.
• Aluminum ore is expected to be depleted in about 250 years
UN 4th Global Environmental Outllook. IHT Oct 25, 2007
Metal stocks and sustainability R. B. Gordon*, M. Bertram and T. E. Graedel, Proceedings National Academy of Science, Jan 2006
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Climate change is unequivocal
• “Slowing or even reversing the existing trends of global warming is the defining challenge of our ages”
• From 1900 to 2005, precipitation increased significantly in eastern parts of North and South America, northern Europe and northern and central Asia but declined in the Sahel, the Mediterranean, southern Africa and parts of southern Asia
• Rate of global average sea level rise has risen from 1.8mm/yr to 3.1mm/yr from 1961 to 1993
Source: 27th Session of the IPCC, November 2007
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Water usage patterns are as unsustainable as our carbon emissions
Source: World Resources Institute, in JP Morgan, “Watching Water”, April 1st 2008 (emphasis added to quote)
“The food and beverage sectors are heavily dependent on water for productions of inputs as well as of final goods. Their water use is so vast that it affects overall water availability in a significant way. We estimate that the combined direct consumption of five food and beverage giants, Nestle, Unilever, Coca-Cola Co, Anheuser-Busch and Danone approached 575 billion liters per year, enough to service the daily water needs of everyone on the planet”Note that this excludes indirect consumption, for example at agribusiness and canning suppliers!!
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Water, energy and carbon are heavily interrelated
Water consumption
Pumping Demand
Energy Demand
Carbon emissions
Water Treatment Demand
+
+
+
-
Potential Energy*
+
+
* Potential energy from water temperature and/or pressure that can be harvested within a plant
+
+
+ = positive driver (eg more water consumption = more pumping demand)
- = negative driver (eg more potential energy = reduced conventional energy demand)
Oil Refining
+
+
Bio-fuel production
Gasoline etc
+-
-
Nuclear Power
+
+ Conventional Power
++
+
(Alternative Power)
-
+
+
Beneficial “green” impact
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Three Hard Truths
• Three Hard Truths*– Global demand for energy is rising– Global energy supply is not rising– Burning fossil fuels is bad for the environment
• For ‘energy’ read also {water, food, minerals, capacity of public infrastructure}
*Source: Royal Dutch Shell Group Strategy
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“We have been here before”
• “Limits to Growth”, 1972– “Oil will run out in 1992”
• Assumptions of exponential growth not fulfilled
• Availability solved through innovation
• Process efficiency improved
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Enterprise, Government,
Individual
How does Climate Change become manifest for our customers?
1. Costs & Other Risks– High & Volatile energy prices– Security of energy supply
concerns– Scarcity of water supply– Scarcity of raw materials– Infrastructure capacity– Threats to competitiveness– Physical risks (extreme weather)– Litigation
2. New Business: Product & Service Opportunities
– Clients “voting with their wallets”– Operational Efficiencies
3. Reputation: Stakeholders Pressures
– Investors (Disclosure)– Brand/Customers (PR, Corp.
Social Responsibility)– Employee / Talent Management
4. Regulation & Legislation
RegulationTo reduce emissions of greenhouse gases such
as the EU Emissions Trading Scheme,
Climate Change Levy, and Building Regulations
ReputationPressure from investors,
employees and consumers about the
environmental and economic consequences
of climate change
New business(Positive Economics)
Developments in markets, knowledge and new technologies, which enable business to cut their carbon emissions
while increasing productivity and finding potential new revenue
opportunities
Costs & Other Risks
(Negative Economics)
Rising costs of energy, transport,
waste disposal and raw materials;
physical risks of global warming
Source: Inspired by Carbon Trust –
Carbon Management White Paper
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Agenda
• It’s a brave new world…• …with new challenges• What roles can IT play in this?• The Instrumented Planet• People, Places, and Data• Summary
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Recognition of the Role of IT is Emerging
The Bad News: IT accounts for 2% of global CO2e emissions
The Good News: IT can significantly contribute to control and reduce the 98% of CO2e emissions caused by other activities and industries
Source: Gartner, Green IT, October 12, 2007
21 © 2008 IBM Corporation
Measure & improve transportation usage Reduce traffic congestion Reduce CO2 emissions Increase mass transit usage Reduce energy usage Improve environment
Intelligent TransportationSystems
Intelligent Utility NetworksMeasure & improve energy mgmt Reduce usage, reduce outages Improved grid management
CarbonManagement SolutionsMeasure & reduce carbon emissions Strategy Customer and product Supply chain People IT strategy Property and buildings Information Recycling Waste management End of life services
Applying innovative information technology and services that really matter to businesses, governments, people and the planet
IBM Energy and the Environment Blueprint
AdvancedWater ManagementMeasure & improve water mgmt Flood avoidance Weather event management Improved water quality Reduced water usage
Create &manage efficient IT IT facilities infrastructure efficiency IT operations efficiency Active energy management Monitoring and verification
of efficiency goals Demand-side efficiency
Energy EfficientTechnologies and Services
22 © 2008 IBM Corporation
The Olympic Peninsula GridWise Demonstration Project created a real-time energy marketplace for consumers
150 & 350 KWPower Generator
Application Server
600 HP Water Pump
Thermostat
Space HeaterWater Heater
Meter
LCM
GFA
LCM
Dryer
Energy Market
Port Angeles Water Supply
PNL MSL
Pacific Northwest National Lab Shadow Market
Load Shedding Heat
Storage
PNL Application Web Server
Internet
Additional DR
Control/ Application
Server
Residential Home
Invensys Home Gateway
125 Residential Homes
Invensys Application/ Web Server
IBM: Event Bus & Event-based Programming Model
Three experimental groups plus control group
In time-of-use group, rates paid by consumers differ by time of day and available supply.
In the real-time group, consumers specify temperature set-point and comfort versus economy
Settings become bids in a real-time energy market on 5 minute cycles
In the fixed rate group, payments are calculated as is customary.
Source: D.J. Hammerstrom et. al. Pacific Northwest GridWise Testbed Demonstration Projects, Part 1, Olympic Peninsula Project.; Prepared for US Department of Energy under Contract DE-AC05-76RL0130; Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, Washington, 99352.
23 © 2008 IBM Corporation
“Greening” Existing “Brown” Increasing Adoption of Green Increase efficiency through
intelligence and optimization Transform energy sources and public
infrastructureIntent
Near-term: Realize current offerings Medium-term: Scaling and realization
Medium-term: Development Long-term: Scaling and realization
Timeframe
Key IBM Opportunity
Areas
Green technologies are not fully developed, marketable, or enabled by existing consumption and supply infrastructures today
Know how in IT to increase scaling of alternate technologies
Rationale Efficiency gains driven by new
economics, information and processes require measurement, analytics and management
Estimated potential for 30% reduction ($1.3T) of energy usage and emissions
Extension of Current Business
−Green Tech. & Services, Green SigmaTM
Growth Platforms
–Smart Infrastructure (e.g., Intelligent Utility Networks, Intelligent Transportation Sys.)
–Modeling & Analytics (e.g., Weather Forecasting, Nuclear Reactor Simulation)
Licensing Intellectual Property−e.g., Photovoltaic, Water Desalination
Growth Platforms−Core Research (e.g., Energy Storage)−Smart Infrastructure (e.g., Micro-
generation Management) −Modeling & Analytics (e.g., Public
Infrastructure Modeling)
IBM’s strategic intent is to increase the efficiency of today’s systems and enable our clients’ “Green” strategies
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Areas for research
• Science– Physics, Nanotechnology, Electrical Engineering– Synthetic Biology– Climate Physics, Hydrology, Seismology
• Math– Multivariate optimization– Machine learning– Simulation
• Systems– Semiconductor Physics, Device Design, Package Design– System Management, Virtualization
• Software– Efficiency – embedded software– “Power-aware” applications– System S – real-world aware computing
• E-Business– “ERP for Utilities”– Instrumented Planet
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Agenda
• It’s a brave new world…• …with new challenges• What roles can IT play in this?• The Instrumented Planet• People, Places, and Data• Summary
26
Data & analytics for trading, hedging in emissions exchanges
Data & analytics to optimize
energy efficiency
Data & analytics to optimize
carbon footprint trade-offs
Data & analytics on weather impact on
economic/social activity
Information Utility businesses are high-margin businesses; for example, Moody’s has a 60% operating profit margin on annual revenue slightly greater than $1B
Source: Reuters, company 10Ks
Va
lue
/ P
rofi
t
Information Utilities for Finance & Environment
WorldCheckWorldCheck
Information with network effect
value-addInformation with analytic and business process value-add
Information Utility Value Creation Information with
network effect value-add
Information with analytic and business process value-add
Aggregated energy & climate
data service
Carbon footprint ratings for
companies & organizations
Carbon value standard for products &
services
Information Utility Opportunities - Illustrative
Organized Data
Derived Data
Contextual Data
Industry Standard
EquifaxEquifax
Carfax (Polk)Carfax (Polk)
Getty ImagesGetty Images
Stewart InfoServices
Stewart InfoServices
MarkitMarkit
ChoicepointChoicepoint
NavteqNavteq
aQuantiveaQuantive
BloombergBloomberg
IMS HealthIMS Health
Risk MetricsRisk Metrics
Moody’sMoody’s
NielsenNielsen
Fair Isaac(FICO)
Fair Isaac(FICO)
MorningstarMorningstar
Organized Data
Derived Data
Contextual Data
Industry Standard
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Life On An Instrumented Planet
Atmospheric monitorsSatellite imagingRiver & Aquifer monitorsOcean monitorsEnergy productionEnergy consumptionWater productionWater consumptionTraffic flowPublic TransportationPublic InfrastructureSupply Chain OperationsProduction OperationsSmart BuildingsSmart InfrastructureVideo surveillance….
Data Acquisition
& Management
Modeling, Analytics, Machine Learning
Intelligent Earth Systems Platform
Domain Insights
Business, Public & Private
Decision Making
Operational Processes
Process Integration
Business Domain
Expertise
Source Domain
ExpertiseAlgorithmic Expertise
Networking & Data Mgmt
Expertise
Energy Efficient Computational
Platform Expertise
The Bloomberg of Earth Systems
ClientsSensor & Historical
Data
See Bloomberg: http://www.bloomberg.com/index.html?Intro=intro3
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Process Innovation…
New Insight enabling…
New Data drives…
Data Capture & Control• Move data intelligently• Execute local commands• Run distributed operational logic• Integrate wide range of device
Manage Distributed Device Infrastructure• Discovery of devices and sensors• Remote configuration, updating, “no touch”• Monitoring
Data Capture & Control• Move data intelligently• Execute local commands• Run distributed operational logic• Integrate wide range of device
Manage Distributed Device Infrastructure• Discovery of devices and sensors• Remote configuration, updating, “no touch”• Monitoring
Event Processing & Services• Complex event processing• Services such as: Data Aggregation, Geographic
information, Identification and Association, Condition, Monitoring, Command and Permission, Persistence
Data Modeling & Integration• Domain specific information models• Interoperable information framework• Integration with legacy data• Federated data management
Analytics• Domain specific analytic applications• Apply and develop mathematical models• Provide performance dashboards
Event Processing & Services• Complex event processing• Services such as: Data Aggregation, Geographic
information, Identification and Association, Condition, Monitoring, Command and Permission, Persistence
Data Modeling & Integration• Domain specific information models• Interoperable information framework• Integration with legacy data• Federated data management
Analytics• Domain specific analytic applications• Apply and develop mathematical models• Provide performance dashboards
Business Optimization• Model business processes for optimization• Apply mathematical optimization techniques• Optimize assets and processes
Business Process Services• Event driven SOA processes (i.e. traceability)• Sense & respond dynamics• Enterprise application integration• Align with business strategy
Process Integration• Extend legacy and enable new business
processes• Monitor business processes• Provide information to people• Improve operational logic and business rules
Business Optimization• Model business processes for optimization• Apply mathematical optimization techniques• Optimize assets and processes
Business Process Services• Event driven SOA processes (i.e. traceability)• Sense & respond dynamics• Enterprise application integration• Align with business strategy
Process Integration• Extend legacy and enable new business
processes• Monitor business processes• Provide information to people• Improve operational logic and business rules
… within a “backplane” of Scalability, Security, Privacy & Standards
New Data, New Insight, New Processes
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What (business) processes would derive value from real-time, real-world insights or predictions?
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What (business) processes would derive value from real-time, real-world insights or predictions?
• Commodity trading – Partially covered by FSS Information Utilities
• City/Regional Management– Traffic/congestion, water, power, epidemiology– Major weather events
• Transportation– Real-time logistics management, “on demand public
transportation”, dynamic route management for public, fuel/fleet management
• Manufacturing– Supply Chain Management, materials/process optimization
• Retail– Weather-related sales, transportation-related sales
(Hyperlocality)• Consumers
– Personal optimizers for time, energy, and other preferences
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Type of Output Example of Output Example Usage
Est. Value of Output ($)
Secondary results from SCM combined with weather forecast
Change production plan model mix
Manufacturing co. 100ks
Primary results from SCM analysis
Re-schedule shipment of goods from DC x to DC y
Transportation co.
Manufacturing co.
100k
Tertiary results from domain analysis
Congestion prediction by region for next 2 hours
Alert to urban traffic managers & traffic svcs
100
Tertiary results from domain analysis
Recommend re-timing traffic signal patter P to avoid gridlock formation
Alert to urban traffic managers
?
Secondary results from domain analysis
Risk of gridlock is High in region R
Alert to urban transit managers
?
Primary results from domain analysis
2500 vehicles / hour passing sensor J
?
Structured data stream Car reg. N passed sensor J at time T
Drive a road pricing transaction
0.50
ITS Hierarchy of Output Value
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Agenda
• It’s a brave new world…• …with new challenges• What roles can IT play in this?• The Instrumented Planet• People, Places, and Data• Summary
33
What can Information Technologies do to address the challenges of climate change?
• Find ways to drive efficiency in the use of energy and other resources
• Find ways to extract new sources of energy and other resources
• Find ways to recycle the waste products of consuming energy and other resources
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Making a Difference
• It’s about behavioural change– Changing the light bulbs will not be enough– Need to produce significant changes in behaviour
(democratically) to reduce CO2e– As quickly as possible
• This is not necessarily a worsening of our lifestyle– Many negative aspects to current lifestyle– Major shifts in lifestyle have occurred multiple times
since late 18C– Late 21C will probably pity us for our addiction to
fossil fuels
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A challenge to you, the real-time demographers and sociologists of the early 21C
• How do we induce the needed behavioural changes?
• What incentives work?• What role can access to information play in
inducing such changes?• How do we provide a “user interface” to a low-
carbon lifestyle that is easily understood and adopted?
• We need more than “greenwashing” and shallow motivation
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Agenda
• It’s a brave new world…• …with new challenges• What roles can IT play in this?• The Instrumented Planet• People, Places, and Data• Summary
37
Summary
• The 21C faces severe global challenges• We can improve our understanding of the planet
by instrumenting the environment• We have instrumented our own behaviours to a
high degree• We can apply intelligence (ICT) to addressing
the challenges we face by employing the new data sources of the Instrumented Planet
• How much of a difference can this make?• The 21C will be different, but not necessarily
worse than the 20C
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