1 brendan devlin adviser, markets and infrastructure directorate b, dg ener european commission

1

Brendan DevlinAdviser, Markets and InfrastructureDirectorate B, DG ENEREuropean Commission

2

2008/2009 2011 2014

Climate and energy: where do we stand?

The EU climate and energy

package

3

Reduce Greenhouse Gas Emissions levels by 20%

Increase share of Renewables to 20%

Reductions in 2012: -18%

2020 Targets 2020

Projection

Share in 2011:12.7%

2020 Projection

2020 Projection

Climate and energy: where do we stand?

Reduce energy consumption by 20%

4

Climate and energy: where do we stand?Renewable energy saw rapid cost decreases

Technologies are gradually becoming competitive

Impact of the financial crisisFall in private investment, tight

financing conditions

Rising demand -> rising prices

By 2030, world economyset to double and energy demand

to rise by 1/3

Fukushima

Some countries phase outnuclear power production

Shale gasUS oil and gas production

Unconventional gas

Conventional gasUnconventional oil

Conventional oil

5

Why a 2030 framework?

GHG reductions in a cost- effective

way

Security of energy supplies

Competitive energy and new

growth and jobs

EU contribution 2015 agreeme

nt

6

• Between 35% and 45%

GHG target

• Up to 35%

RES target

• Moderate, ambitious and very ambitious energy efficiency policies

EE

• competitiveness and security of supply

Additional indicators / aspirational objectives

IA's policy options: 7 scenarios

7

IA main conclusions

Reference scenario• 32% GHG reductions

• 24% RES• 21% Energy savings

Costs related to ambitious GHG targets are relatively limited if targets are met in a cost-effective way

Ambitious EE and RES have positive impacts on • External fuel bill

• Health (lower pollutant emissions)

• GDP and jobs

Energy Efficiency is key to contain energy cost increases

Global climate efforts will have positive impacts EU competitiveness

8

2030 climate and energy Framework

20 % GHG

40 % GHG

20% RES

20 % EE

≥ 27 % RES

..2014

2020

2030New Key Indicato

rs

New governance system

9

2030 Framework: Key indicators

Energy price differentials

Diversification imports,share of

indigenous energy

Smart grids & connections

between Member States

Intra-EU coupling energy markets

Technological innovation

Competition and market

concentration

10

2030 Framework: New Governance System National plans for competitive, secure and sustainable energy

Commission details guidance on the new governance process and contents of national plans

Member States prepare plans based on an iterative process

Commission assess Member States' plans and commitments

Include domestic objectives on: • non-ETS GHG

emissions• renewable

energy• energy

savings• energy

security• ….

11

Main challenges…

• Increasing in any event: renew ageing energy system, rising fossil fuel prices, meeting the climate and energy targets already agreed upon

Energy costs

• Shift away from fuel expenditure towards investments, additional € 38 billion investment/year 2011-2030 compared to the reference scenario

Additional investments to achieve 2030 framework

• Future discussion will have to be centred on how to ensure an equitable burden sharing affordable for all

Differences between Member States

12

…and benefits

• Fuel savings: additional € 18 billion fuel per year next 2 decades• Energy security: additional 11% cut in energy imports in 2030• Innovation: jobs & growth• Health and air pollution benefits: €7-13.5 billion in 2030

Reductions vs 2005:

ETS -43%

Non ETS -30%

Decoupling of Gross Domestic Product growth from Greenhouse Gas Emissions will continue

13

Next steps

At European level

March 2014: European Council

February 2014: European Parliament

Energy Efficiency Directive: 2014 Review and proposals

Emissions Trading System proposal: co-decision procedure

Development/implementation of new governance structure

Competitiveness and energy security indicators

And at international level

2014: Ban Ki-moon Climate Summit of World leaders

2015: contributions from Parties; Paris conference adopts international agreement

14

ec.europa.eu/energy/2030

LZ/A1

15

A legislative proposal to establish a market stability reserve for the EU Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS)

Recommendation, accompanied by a Communication, on the environmental aspects on unconventional fossil fuels

A Report, accompanied by a Communication, on energy prices and costs in Europe

Communication for a European industrial renaissance

Also in the "Package"