1 future directions in antarctic science implications for national programs by mahlon chuck...

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FUTURE DIRECTIONS IN ANTARCTIC SCIENCE

IMPLICATIONS FOR NATIONAL PROGRAMS

BY MAHLON “CHUCK” KENNICUTT II

PRESIDENTSCIENTIFIC COMMITTEE

ON ANTARCTIC RESEARCH (SCAR)

PRESENTATION OUTLINE

• Introduction• IPY Science• Science

Directions• Science

Support• Opportunities• Summary

THE IMPERATIVE

• Financial - Global financial crisis and spike in the price of fuel

• Synergy - Opportunities for coordination and partnerships

• Environment - Improved environmental performance

• IPY Legacy - Preserving and Building on the Legacy of the IPY

“Scientists from the RAND Corporation have created this model to illustrate how a “home computer”

could look like in the year 2004. However much of the needed technology will not be feasible for the

average home. Also the scientists readily admit that the computer will require not yet invented technology

to actually work, but 50 years from now scientific progress is expected to solve these problems.”…

1954

Disclaimer

THE ART OF FUTURE GAZING

• Innate uncertainties in predictions

• Investments in science are national enterprises

• Processes for setting scientific priorities are highly variable

• Future directions are dependent on the outcome of “in-progress” research

• Trajectories can be non-linear or even discontinuous – technology and science can be decoupled

TRENDS IN ANTARCTIC RESEARCH

• Increasingly complex questions and technologies

• Earth system science approach

• Interdisciplinary framework• Data intensive

investigations• Transcontinental or region-

wide investigations

FUTURE DIRECTIONS IN ANTARCTIC RESEARCH

Through the Prism of the

International Polar Year 2007-2008

• Well coordinated international effort

• Extensive multi-year planning by the polar community

• Researcher driven identification of important scientific questions

• Planning included consideration of logistics

• Limitations: not all were funded, information is qualitative, by design characteristics were pre-determined

IPY SCIENCE PORTFOLIO

• The planning process encouraged multi-national, integrated programs

• Programs addressed the IPY themes: status, change, global linkages, new frontiers, vantage point (and human dimensions)

• Classified based on portion of the earth system being studied

IPY SCIENCE PORTFOLIO

• 76 of 230 projects in Antarctica or in both polar regions

• 15% were identified as Antarctic projects

• 18% identified as bi-polar

Antarctic

Ant/Bipolar

Arctic

Arctic – 66%Antarctic – 15%

Antarctic/bipolar – 18%

IPY Project Database

IPY SCIENCE PORTFOLIO

• Over 2500 participants

• Partnerships of 2 to 24 countries (avg. = 10)

• Teams of 4 to 1878 scientists (avg. = 37)

Number of Coutries

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23

Number of Coutries

Number of Countries

Nu

mb

er o

f P

roje

cts Average = 10

IPY SCIENCE PORTFOLIO

IPY Project Database

System Component Studied

Amtosphere

Ice

Land

Oceans

Space

People

Atmosphere – 15 %

Ice – 16%

Land – 22%Oceans – 30%

Space – 13%People - 7%

IPY Project Database

IPY SCIENCE PORTFOLIO

Life Sciences

GeoSciences

Physical Sciences

Life Sciences - 30%

GeoSciences – 18%

Physical Sciences – 52%*

* - note SCAR Physical Sciences includes glaciology and climate

Sorted by Scientific Disciplines

IPY SCIENCE PORTFOLIO

• Climate change/global warming

• Ecosystem structure/functioning

• Census of living resources and biodiversity

• Astronomy and near-earth space science

• Recovery of paleo-climate records

• Satellite observations

• Remote sensing and mapping of the continent above and below the ice.

• Ice balance and sea level

• Sub-glacial environment hydrology and biogeochemistry

• Southern ocean and coastal oceanography

TARGETS OF SCIENTIFIC INVESTIGATIONS

MAJOR SCIENTIFIC OBJECTIVES

• Assess the stability of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS)

• Recover the oldest ice core record of climate

• Describe regional and temporal variability in Antarctic climate

• Enter and sample subglacial environments

• Establish atmospheric and oceanic observing networks

• Determine the nature and history of sub-ice basement geology in East Antarctica

• Measure upper atmosphere physics

• Define the pre-Pleistocene history of Antarctica

• Refine ice sheet mass balance, stability, and global sea level estimates

• Recover paleo-records in the interior of Antarctica

• Understand evolution and biodiversity in Antarctica

• Study life in the cold and dark

• Map biological habitats, ecosystems and organism distributions in the Antarctic

MAJOR SCIENTIFIC OBJECTIVES

REQUIREMENTS BY SYSTEM COMPONENT

• Atmosphere - air monitoring networks, standard meteorological observations, automatic weather stations, fixed wing geophysical and transport aircraft, multi-instrumented platforms, observatories, helicopters, research vessels for marine sampling, existing and new field stations, ship recovery of buoys, and snow terrain vehicles.

• Ice - ice strengthened research ships, fixed wing transport aircraft, snow terrain vehicles, icebreakers, existing and new field stations, multi-instrumented platforms, helicopters, ship recovery of buoys, Autonomous Underwater Vehicles, satellite data, and ice and rock drilling capability.

IPY Project Database

REQUIREMENTS BY SYSTEM COMPONENT

• Atmosphere - air monitoring networks, standard meteorological observations, automatic weather stations, fixed wing geophysical and transport aircraft, multi-instrumented platforms, observatories, helicopters, research vessels for marine sampling, existing and new field stations, ship recovery of buoys, and snow terrain vehicles.

• Ice - ice strengthened research ships, fixed wing transport aircraft, snow terrain vehicles, icebreakers, existing and new field stations, multi-instrumented platforms, helicopters, ship recovery of buoys, Autonomous Underwater Vehicles, satellite data, and ice and rock drilling capability.

IPY Project Database

REQUIREMENTS BY SYSTEM COMPONENT

• Atmosphere - air monitoring networks, standard meteorological observations, automatic weather stations, fixed wing geophysical and transport aircraft, multi-instrumented platforms, observatories, helicopters, research vessels for marine sampling, existing and new field stations, ship recovery of buoys, and snow terrain vehicles.

• Ice - ice strengthened research ships, fixed wing transport aircraft, snow terrain vehicles, icebreakers, existing and new field stations, multi-instrumented platforms, helicopters, ship recovery of buoys, Autonomous Underwater Vehicles, satellite data, and ice and rock drilling capability.

IPY Project Database

• Land - helicopters, fuel depots, existing and new field stations, rockets, spacecraft, snow terrain vehicles, ice and rock drilling capability, multi-instrumented platforms, observatories, fixed wing transport aircraft, geophysical aircraft, ice strengthened research ships, radars, and observatories.

• Oceans - icebreakers, ice strengthened research ships, helicopters, AUVs/ROVs, ship recovery of buoys, multi-instrumented platforms, ice drilling capability, fixed wing transport and geophysical aircraft, radars, submarines, ship-based drilling capability.

REQUIREMENTS BY SYSTEM COMPONENT

IPY Project Database

• Land - helicopters, fuel depots, existing and new field stations, rockets, spacecraft, snow terrain vehicles, ice and rock drilling capability, multi-instrumented platforms, observatories, fixed wing transport aircraft, geophysical aircraft, ice strengthened research ships, radars, and observatories.

• Oceans - icebreakers, ice strengthened research ships, helicopters, AUVs/ROVs, ship recovery of buoys, multi-instrumented platforms, ice drilling capability, fixed wing transport and geophysical aircraft, radars, submarines, ship-based drilling capability.

REQUIREMENTS BY SYSTEM COMPONENT

IPY Project Database

• Land - helicopters, fuel depots, existing and new field stations, rockets, spacecraft, snow terrain vehicles, ice and rock drilling capability, multi-instrumented platforms, observatories, fixed wing transport aircraft, geophysical aircraft, ice strengthened research ships, radars, and observatories.

• Oceans - icebreakers, ice strengthened research ships, helicopters, AUVs/ROVs, ship recovery of buoys, multi-instrumented platforms, ice drilling capability, fixed wing transport and geophysical aircraft, radars, submarines, ship-based drilling capability.

REQUIREMENTS BY SYSTEM COMPONENT

IPY Project Database

• Space - Ice drilling capability, existing and new field stations, fixed wing transport aircraft, ice-breakers, inland traverse support, automated observatories, multi-instrumented platforms, rockets, and radars (and, outside the remit of COMNAP, new sensors on space satellites).

• People – Existing field stations, helicopters, snow terrain vehicles, and GPS

REQUIREMENTS BY SYSTEM COMPONENT

IPY Project Database

• Space - Ice drilling capability, existing and new field stations, fixed wing transport aircraft, ice-breakers, inland traverse support, automated observatories, multi-instrumented platforms, rockets, and radars (and, outside the remit of COMNAP, new sensors on space satellites).

• People – Existing field stations, helicopters, snow terrain vehicles, and GPS

REQUIREMENTS BY SYSTEM COMPONENT

IPY Project Database

• Space - Ice drilling capability, existing and new field stations, fixed wing transport aircraft, ice-breakers, inland traverse support, automated observatories, multi-instrumented platforms, rockets, and radars (and, outside the remit of COMNAP, new sensors on space satellites).

• People – Existing field stations, helicopters, snow terrain vehicles, and GPS

REQUIREMENTS BY SYSTEM COMPONENT

IPY Project Database

SCIENCE SUPPORT

• Ships – icebreakers, ice strengthened vessels, (including deployment and recovery of buoys), inflatable boats, and drilling capabilities

• Field Stations – existing stations, new stations and field camps

• Air Transportation – fixed wing aircraft (inter- and intra-continental) and helicopters

• Land Transport – land vehicles, snow terrain vehicles and inland traverse support

• Drilling capability – ice, rock and sediment drilling and coring

• Observatories* - multi-instrumented platforms, automated weather stations, air monitoring networks, AUVs, ROVs, submarines and satellites (rockets)

• Others – fuel depots, GPS, and radars

* Note: increased utilization of automated observatories requires support for deployment, maintenance, and repair;

more complex packages of sensor; increasing power demands, and increased needs for data collection, storage

and transmission

SCIENCE SUPPORT

DATA AND INFORMATION MANAGEMENT

• Stewardship of data and information is critical and essential

• Data are a valuable and irreplaceable resource

• Computers are ubiquitous in Antarctic science

• Computer usage will not only continue but accelerate in the future

• Increasing demands for computing infrastructure and support

DATA AND INFORMATION MANAGEMENT

(cont.)• Enhancement of the existing DIM

infrastructure will be needed to effectively discover, access, use, store, archive and protect data

• The next generation DIM system must be interoperable with other global infrastructures and initiatives

• Observing systems and networks require computers for the analysis of large data sets

• Future scientific demands will require an Antarctic Data Management System and the role of DIM in support of science will grow significantly

OPPORTUNITIES FOR COORDINATION AND PARTNERSHIPS

• Shared infrastructure and logistics

• Enhanced geographic coverage

• Common technologies

• Standardization of methodologies

• International sample archives

• Networked stations and facilities

EXEMPLAR PROGRAMS

China’s Dome A in 2011

Astronomy & Astrophysics from Antarctica

US - South Pole

Telescope

Shared Infrastructure

DROMLAN

Shared Logistics

EXEMPLAR PROGRAMS

ICECAP

AGAP - ANTARCTICA’S GAMBURTSEV PROVINCE

EXEMPLAR PROGRAMS Enhanced Geographic Coverage

SuperDARN Radars

Magnetically Conjugate Instrument Networks

ICESTAR“Linking near-Earth Space

to the Polar Regions””

EXEMPLAR PROGRAMS Common Technologies

SASSI - Long-term scientific monitoring and sustained observations of environmental change in the physical,

chemical, geological and biological components

EXEMPLAR PROGRAMS

Standardization of Methodologies

00 4,000 8,000 12,000

species

taxa

Rotifera Sipuncula Annelida Arthropoda

Brachiopoda Bryozoa Cephalorhyncha Chordata

Cnidaria Echinodermata Echiura Mollusca

Nematoda Nemertina Porifera

SCAR-MarBIN Dataportal of Taxonomic data

Collection

Identification

Data Access and Archival

International Sample Archives

EXEMPLAR PROGRAMS

Svalbard Integrated Arctic Earth Observing

System (SIOS)

A Model for King George Island?

EXEMPLAR PROGRAMS

Station and Infrastructure Networks

CONCLUSIONS

• The future is often unpredictable• Scientific ideas and societal issues

will drive future research directions • Research will become more

complex, holistic, interdisciplinary, international, technology intensive, and often require continent-wide solutions

• Data and Information system demands will increase

• There are great opportunities for coordination, partnerships, and synergy

The future is in our hands!

QUESTIONS ?