200603 future it-professionals

The Future of IT ProfessionalsThe Future of IT Professionals(if they have one)(if they have one)

OTUGOTUG

March 21, 2006March 21, 2006

Dr. dave westDr. dave west

Good news Good news (Bad news)(Bad news)

There will be a future There will be a future (the threat of avian programmer flu (the threat of avian programmer flu pandemic has been vastly exaggerated)pandemic has been vastly exaggerated)

The dot com recession has ended The dot com recession has ended (excepting a few (excepting a few “Googles”, the dot com excitement is largely gone as well)“Googles”, the dot com excitement is largely gone as well)

IT jobs are increasing in numberIT jobs are increasing in number (mostly offshore and/or via (mostly offshore and/or via HB1 visa increases – most of you are not smart enough for Bill)HB1 visa increases – most of you are not smart enough for Bill)

34% of all software projects are completed and used by 34% of all software projects are completed and used by customer customer (usually late and over budget)(usually late and over budget)

Platforms are smaller, faster, cheaper Platforms are smaller, faster, cheaper (still powered by (still powered by Windows)Windows)

Agile / Lean development is sweeping the industry Agile / Lean development is sweeping the industry (at (at least 14% of all IT shops use some agile / lean practices)least 14% of all IT shops use some agile / lean practices)

Survey Says!Survey Says!

2500 sent, 1427 returned (Feb/March 2005)2500 sent, 1427 returned (Feb/March 2005) 43% would choose profession again43% would choose profession again 5% made the world a better place5% made the world a better place 74% salary stagnant / declining74% salary stagnant / declining 63% felt negative consequences from off-63% felt negative consequences from off-

shoringshoring 9% satisfied with day-to-day process / method9% satisfied with day-to-day process / method 21% take great pride in the quality of their work21% take great pride in the quality of their work

Baseline 2006Baseline 2006

IT Doesn’t matterIT Doesn’t matter IT professionals are commoditiesIT professionals are commoditiesManagement / User perspective Management / User perspective Popular PerceptionsPopular Perceptions

IT Doesn’t MatterIT Doesn’t Matter

Nicholas G Carr, Harvard Business Nicholas G Carr, Harvard Business Review, 2003Review, 2003

Main argumentsMain arguments IT is cheap and ubiquitousIT is cheap and ubiquitous IT is a utility – no longer of strategic valueIT is a utility – no longer of strategic value IT management shouldIT management should

Spend lessSpend lessFollow, don’t leadFollow, don’t leadFocus on vulnerabilities, not opportunitiesFocus on vulnerabilities, not opportunities

IT doesn’t Matter - RebuttalIT doesn’t Matter - Rebuttal John Seeley Brown, John Hagel IIIJohn Seeley Brown, John Hagel III IT by itself, rarely if ever, confers strategic advantageIT by itself, rarely if ever, confers strategic advantage IT is inherently strategic because it creates possibilities IT is inherently strategic because it creates possibilities

and optionsand options Main pointsMain points

Extracting value from IT requires innovations in business Extracting value from IT requires innovations in business practicespractices

IT’s economic impact comes from incremental innovations rather IT’s economic impact comes from incremental innovations rather than “big bang” initiatives (“fiasco” of ERP / CRM projects)than “big bang” initiatives (“fiasco” of ERP / CRM projects)

The strategic impact of IT investments comes from the The strategic impact of IT investments comes from the cumulative effect of sustained initiatives to innovate business cumulative effect of sustained initiatives to innovate business practices in the near term (emergence)practices in the near term (emergence)

Strategic value comes from “radical incrementalism”Strategic value comes from “radical incrementalism”

IT Doesn’t Matter - AsideIT Doesn’t Matter - Aside Done versus saidDone versus said

Few companies welcome (foster) innovationFew companies welcome (foster) innovation Most companies act as if they believe that new tech Most companies act as if they believe that new tech

equates to new strategyequates to new strategy Most companies, and professionals, reject new ideas, Most companies, and professionals, reject new ideas,

new possibilities: instead adopt “syntactic veneer”new possibilities: instead adopt “syntactic veneer” Bang! Is still normBang! Is still norm ““Solutions” that inhibit / prevent innovation in business Solutions” that inhibit / prevent innovation in business

practice preferred over those that enablepractice preferred over those that enable ““Thriving on chaos” is still largely a corporate Thriving on chaos” is still largely a corporate

business mythbusiness myth ““CYA is our most valuable resource.”CYA is our most valuable resource.”

IT Professionals are CommoditiesIT Professionals are Commodities

Outsourcing (Offshore) – 700 pound gorillaOutsourcing (Offshore) – 700 pound gorilla WhatWhat

IT – data entry, programming, OS / network admin / DBA, supportIT – data entry, programming, OS / network admin / DBA, support Other – back office, clinical trials, applications and claims processing, Other – back office, clinical trials, applications and claims processing,

filings, market research, legal (scientific research)filings, market research, legal (scientific research) WhyWhy

Cost (64%), Cost (64%), productivityproductivity (8%), turnaround speed (3%), (8%), turnaround speed (3%), qualityquality (3%) (3%) We’ll adopt Java because everyone else is, so there will always be We’ll adopt Java because everyone else is, so there will always be

a lot of java programmers and we can get them at a rate of a dime a a lot of java programmers and we can get them at a rate of a dime a dozendozen

Fungible, components to development teams (method used to force Fungible, components to development teams (method used to force square pegs into round holes)square pegs into round holes)

HR restrictions – individual differences are impossible, distinctions HR restrictions – individual differences are impossible, distinctions only on “objective” criteria, e.g. certificatesonly on “objective” criteria, e.g. certificates

Management / User PerspectiveManagement / User Perspective

ManagementManagement IT “necessary evil”IT “necessary evil”Cost of doing businessCost of doing businessHard to manageHard to manageContributes little to bottom lineContributes little to bottom line

UsersUsers ““irritating tax levied an almost every aspect of irritating tax levied an almost every aspect of

life”life”Why Things Don’t WorkWhy Things Don’t Work

Popular PerceptionsPopular Perceptions

Geek SquadGeek SquadCS is hard, boring, and “done in India”CS is hard, boring, and “done in India”

University enrollments dropped 10-50% / year University enrollments dropped 10-50% / year the past five yearsthe past five years

It’s (still) a boy thingIt’s (still) a boy thingCannot name / identify “good” softwareCannot name / identify “good” software ““bad” software is everywherebad” software is everywhereAn absence of heroes / heroines / mythic An absence of heroes / heroines / mythic

figuresfigures

Where did we go wrongWhere did we go wrong

IT is the computerIT is the computerBad! Bad human!Bad! Bad human! If it cannot be measured it is not realIf it cannot be measured it is not realControl, centralization, integrationControl, centralization, integrationGreatest generationGreatest generation

IT is the computerIT is the computer

Dahlbom & Mathiassen – The Future of Dahlbom & Mathiassen – The Future of Our ProfessionOur ProfessionMechanistic dominantMechanistic dominant

Focus = artifact, approach = construction, role = Focus = artifact, approach = construction, role = engineerengineer

Formality (of definition / specification, process)Formality (of definition / specification, process)Need more romanticismNeed more romanticism

Focus = culture, approach = interpretation, role = Focus = culture, approach = interpretation, role = facilitatorfacilitator

MDA - epitome of the abstracted machineMDA - epitome of the abstracted machine

Bad!! Bad human!Bad!! Bad human!

Original sinOriginal sinAre humans innately evil but capable of Are humans innately evil but capable of

redemption, or innately good but subject to redemption, or innately good but subject to corruption?corruption?

Taylorism and scientific managementTaylorism and scientific managementAutomatic programming – CASE / Automatic programming – CASE /

repository - formal software engineeringrepository - formal software engineering

If it cannot be measured it is not If it cannot be measured it is not realreal

ProductivityProductivity LOC / developerLOC / developer Stories completedStories completed Tests passedTests passed

QualityQuality Defects / LOCDefects / LOC Passed testsPassed tests (elegance, durability, suitability, likeability)(elegance, durability, suitability, likeability)

CMM, ISO9000, …CMM, ISO9000, … Delivered software statistically identical to all other Delivered software statistically identical to all other

softwaresoftware

Control, Centralization, IntegrationControl, Centralization, Integration

ExamplesExamplesArchitectureArchitecture

55% of all programs use PSC architecture55% of all programs use PSC architecture30% have no architecture30% have no architecture

DatabaseDatabaseERP / CRMERP / CRM

Monolithic, expensive to change, example Monolithic, expensive to change, example of Bang! Solutionsof Bang! SolutionsBusiness straight jacketsBusiness straight jackets

Greatest GenerationGreatest Generation

MobilizationMobilization overnight armiesovernight armies

Manhattan projectManhattan projectBig bang thinkingBig bang thinking

GI BillGI BillEducation factoriesEducation factories

Alternative Future – Stay the Alternative Future – Stay the CourseCourse

DilbertDilbertCommoditizationCommoditization

blue vest with a smiley button for allblue vest with a smiley button for allCertificationCertification

No programmer left behind (It’s the test, No programmer left behind (It’s the test, stupid!)stupid!)

Google envyGoogle envy

Alternative Future – radical Alternative Future – radical realizationrealization

Key ideasKey ideasChange of focusChange of focusRedefine professionRedefine professionRe-conceptualize the professionalRe-conceptualize the professionalEducationEducationThe “C” wordThe “C” word

Key ideasKey ideas

Silver Bullet – better peopleSilver Bullet – better peopleMethodology – iterative / incrementalMethodology – iterative / incrementalProcess – applied reflectionProcess – applied reflectionSoftware Engineering – simplest thing that Software Engineering – simplest thing that

could possibly workcould possibly workObjects – anthropomorphizationObjects – anthropomorphizationAgile / XP – storyAgile / XP – storyLean - only that which adds valueLean - only that which adds value

Objects and StoriesObjects and Stories

Object = characterObject = character Fundamental unit of decomposition and Fundamental unit of decomposition and

understanding – NOT programmingunderstanding – NOT programming StoryStory

Cast of charactersCast of characters Context (snapshot of characters in context)Context (snapshot of characters in context) Interactions, communications (arbitrarily bounded – Interactions, communications (arbitrarily bounded –

e.g. index card rule)e.g. index card rule) Result = changes in the state[s] of characters or Result = changes in the state[s] of characters or

contextcontext The Historian by Elizabeth KostovaThe Historian by Elizabeth Kostova

Change of FocusChange of Focus

System – not artifactSystem – not artifact Complicated (dead) versus complex (living)Complicated (dead) versus complex (living) Reality constructionReality construction

Radical incrementalismRadical incrementalism Story not projectStory not project Nominal expense not capital improvementNominal expense not capital improvement Incremental return on investmentIncremental return on investment

Domain - not implementationDomain - not implementation Problem understanding defines solutionProblem understanding defines solution All implementations are “trivial”All implementations are “trivial”

Redefine ProfessionRedefine Profession

Definition – metaphorDefinition – metaphor Medicine, horticultureMedicine, horticulture

sacred (opposite of profane) responsibilitysacred (opposite of profane) responsibility Do no harmDo no harm Eschew intrusion (e.g. surgery)Eschew intrusion (e.g. surgery) Focus / pay attention to side effects - holismFocus / pay attention to side effects - holism

PracticePractice Reclaim ownership of tools, skills, practicesReclaim ownership of tools, skills, practices

CommunityCommunity Guild, (cult), peer derived reputation, culture Guild, (cult), peer derived reputation, culture

Re-conceptualize the ProfessionalRe-conceptualize the Professional

Deshi, sensei, master, arhatDeshi, sensei, master, arhatBy their works shall you know themBy their works shall you know themLinda Evans, not Sigourney WeaverLinda Evans, not Sigourney WeaverGrasshopper, Paladin, Dan IngallsGrasshopper, Paladin, Dan Ingalls

Situational awarenessSituational awarenessRight (non-attached) actionRight (non-attached) actioncatalystcatalyst

EducationEducation

Experience based – studioExperience based – studio Iterative, incrementalIterative, incrementalJust-in-time, theory lastJust-in-time, theory lastOne-room schoolhouseOne-room schoolhouseTeamsTeamsRetrospective / introspectiveRetrospective / introspective

What we are doing in NMWhat we are doing in NM

The “C” wordThe “C” word

Culture (not certification)Culture (not certification)Shared world viewShared world viewCommon mythology (including heroic figures)Common mythology (including heroic figures)

EnculturationEnculturationSchools (ashrams)Schools (ashrams)Professional society – organizationProfessional society – organizationConferencesConferences

OTUG – Agile 2006 - OOPSLAOTUG – Agile 2006 - OOPSLA

Separation (opening prayer)Separation (opening prayer)Re-identification, Re-recognition (rituals, Re-identification, Re-recognition (rituals,

hymns, testimony)hymns, testimony)Re-purposing (homily – story about us)Re-purposing (homily – story about us)Education / growth (sermon)Education / growth (sermon)Affirmation (ritual, hymns, responsorials)Affirmation (ritual, hymns, responsorials)Re-integration (closing prayer, Re-integration (closing prayer,

socialization)socialization)