2011 water quality & ra compliance update

2011 Water Quality & RA Compliance

Update

Ed SherwoodTampa Bay Estuary Program

100 Eighth Ave. SESt. Petersburg, FL 33701

TBEP Nitrogen Management Strategy

Reduce Nitrogen

Loads

Reduce Chloro-

phyll

ReduceLightAtten-uation

1998: NMC Partnership Formed to “Hold the Line”

1996-2009: NMC Projects Preclude >430t N / yr

2010: RA Accepted & Adopted by FDEP, N Load Allocations Voluntarily &Proactively Developed

2011+ : Demonstrating RA Compliance& Providing Input on Criteria Development

2012: RA Update!

2006: First-time All Segments Meet TBEP

Management Targets

Sea-grass

Recover

Adopted Compliance Assessment• NMC Action 1: Report attainment

of bay segment specific chlorophyll-a thresholds to FDEP and EPA over the 2007-2011 period.

• NMC Action 2: Report anomalous event(s) or data which influenced a chlorophyll-a exceedence over the 2007-2011 period to FDEP & EPA.

• NMC Action 3: Consider re-evaluation of bay segment assimilative capacities.

• NMC Action 4: Compile loading evaluations & identify potential further actions needed to achieve reasonable assurance for adopted bay segment allocations.

FDEP Recognized Site Specific Thresholds for Chlorophyll-a to Maintain Tampa Bay

Reasonable Assurance

• Hillsborough Bay: 15.0 ug/L

• Old Tampa Bay: 9.3 ug/L

• Middle Tampa Bay: 8.5 ug/L

• Lower Tampa Bay: 5.1 ug/L

Chlorophyll-a

Bay Segment Chlorophyll-a Compliance

Bay Segment

Chlorophyll-a(ug/L)

2011Average

FDEP RA Targets

Old Tampa Bay 11.4 9.3

Hillsborough Bay 11.2 15.0

Middle Tampa Bay 8.0 8.5

Lower Tampa Bay 4.3 5.1

YearOld Tampa

BayHills. Bay

Mid. Tampa Bay

Lower Tampa Bay

1974 No No No Yes

1975 No No No Yes

1976 No No No Yes

1977 No No No No

1978 No No No Yes

1979 No No No No

1980 No No No No

1981 No No No No

1982 No No No No

1983 No No No No

1984 Yes Yes No Yes

1985 No No No Yes

1986 No No Yes Yes

1987 No Yes No Yes

1988 Yes Yes Yes Yes

1989 No Yes Yes Yes

1990 No Yes Yes Yes

1991 Yes Yes Yes Yes

1992 Yes Yes Yes Yes

1993 Yes Yes Yes Yes

1994 No No No No

1995 No No No Yes

1996 Yes Yes Yes Yes

1997 Yes Yes Yes Yes

1998 No No No No

1999 Yes Yes Yes Yes

2000 Yes Yes Yes Yes

2001 Yes Yes Yes Yes

2002 Yes Yes Yes Yes

2003 No Yes Yes Yes

2004 No Yes Yes Yes

2005 Yes Yes Yes No

2006 Yes Yes Yes Yes

2007 Yes Yes Yes Yes

2008 Yes Yes Yes Yes

2009 No Yes Yes Yes

2010 Yes Yes Yes Yes

2011 No Yes Yes Yes

2007-2011 – 5 Year RA Compliance Period

Old Tampa Bay5-year Compliance Assessment

Bay Segment Reasonable Assurance Assessment Steps

DATA USED TO ASSESS ANNUAL REASONABLE ASSURANCE

OUTCOMEYear 1

(2007)

Year 2

(2008)

Year 3

(2009)

Year 4

(2010)

Year 5

(2011)

NMC Action 1: Determine if observed chlorophyll-a exceeds FDEP threshold of 9.3 mg/L

8.6 mg/L (No)

9.27 mg/L (No)

12.1 mg/L (Yes)

7.4 mg/L (No)

11.4 mg/L (Yes)

Chlorophyll-a threshold exceedences occurred during 2 non-consecutive years of assessment period, not necessary for NMC Actions 2-5.

NMC Action 2: Determine if any observed chlorophyll-a exceedences occurred for 2 consecutive years

No No No No NoChlorophyll-a exceedences did not occur in 2 consecutive years, not necessary for NMC Actions 3-5

NMC Action 3: Determine if observed hydrologically-normalized total load exceeds federally- recognized TMDL of 486 tons/year

N/A N/A N/A N/A N/ANot necessary due to observed water quality and seagrass conditions in the bay segment.

NMC Actions 4-5: Determine if any entity/source/facility specific exceedences of 5-yr average allocation occurred during period

Not necessary when chlorophyll-a thresholds met.

Hillsborough Bay5-year Compliance Assessment

Bay Segment Reasonable Assurance Assessment Steps

DATA USED TO ASSESS ANNUAL REASONABLE ASSURANCE

OUTCOMEYear 1

(2007)

Year 2

(2008)

Year 3

(2009)

Year 4

(2010)

Year 5

(2011)

NMC Action 1: Determine if observed chlorophyll-a exceeds FDEP threshold of 15.0 mg/L

8.3 mg/L(No)

11.6 mg/L(No)

14.6 mg/L(No)

9.8 mg/L(No)

11.2 mg/L(No)

All years below threshold, not necessary for NMC Actions 2-5

NMC Action 2: Determine if any observed chlorophyll-a exceedences occurred for 2 consecutive years

No No No No No All years met threshold, not necessary for NMC Actions 3-5

NMC Action 3: Determine if observed hydrologically-normalized total load exceeds federally- recognized TMDL of 1451 tons/year

N/A N/A N/A N/A N/ANot necessary due to observed water quality and seagrass conditions in the bay segment.

NMC Actions 4-5: Determine if any entity/source/facility specific exceedences of 5-yr average allocation occurred during period

Not necessary when chlorophyll-a thresholds met.

Middle Tampa Bay5-year Compliance Assessment

Bay Segment Reasonable Assurance Assessment Steps

DATA USED TO ASSESS ANNUAL REASONABLE ASSURANCE

OUTCOMEYear 1

(2007)

Year 2

(2008)

Year 3

(2009)

Year 4

(2010)

Year 5

(2011)

NMC Action 1: Determine if observed chlorophyll-a exceeds FDEP threshold of 8.5 mg/L

5.5 mg/L(No)

5.7 mg/L(No)

6.5 mg/L(No)

6.0 mg/L(No)

8.0 mg/L(No)

All years below threshold, not necessary for NMC Actions 2-5

NMC Action 2: Determine if any observed chlorophyll-a exceedences occurred for 2 consecutive years

No No No No No All years met threshold, not necessary for NMC Actions 3-5

NMC Action 3: Determine if observed hydrologically-normalized total load exceeds federally- recognized TMDL of 799 tons/year

N/A N/A N/A N/A N/ANot necessary due to observed water quality and seagrass conditions in the bay segment.

NMC Actions 4-5: Determine if any entity/source/facility specific exceedences of 5-yr average allocation occurred during period

Not necessary when chlorophyll-a thresholds met.

Lower Tampa Bay & Remainder LTB5-year Compliance Assessment

Bay Segment Reasonable Assurance Assessment Steps

DATA USED TO ASSESS ANNUAL REASONABLE ASSURANCE

OUTCOMEYear 1

(2007)

Year 2

(2008)

Year 3

(2009)

Year 4

(2010)

Year 5

(2011)

NMC Action 1: Determine if observed chlorophyll-a exceeds FDEP threshold of 5.1 mg/L

3.1 mg/L(No)

2.8 mg/L(No)

4.4 mg/L(No)

3.8 mg/L(No)

4.3 mg/L(No)

All years below threshold, not necessary for NMC Actions 2-5

NMC Action 2: Determine if any observed chlorophyll-a exceedences occurred for 2 consecutive years

No No No No NoAll years met threshold, not necessary for NMC Actions 3-5

NMC Action 3: Determine if observed hydrologically-normalized total load exceeds federally- recognized TMDL of 349 (LTB) / 629 (RLTB) tons/year

N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Not necessary due to observed water quality and seagrass conditions in the bay segment.

NMC Actions 4-5: Determine if any entity/source/facility specific exceedences of 5-yr average allocation occurred during period

Not necessary when chlorophyll-a thresholds met.

Tampa Bay Chl-a (2007-2011)

• Significant Pyrodinium blooms occurred in the summer of 2008, 2009 and 2011

2010 Seagrass Estimates

• All TB segments showed increased acreage

• Upper bay segments still have room to “grow”

Bay Segment Seagrass Targets

Old Tampa Bay

Hillsbor-ough Bay

Middle Tampa Bay

Lower Tampa Bay

Boca Ceiga Bay

Terra Ceia Bay

Manatee River

Tampa Bay Total

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

63%

50%

92%98%

110%

96% 110%

87%

Bay Segment

% A

tta

inm

en

t o

f B

ay

Se

gm

en

t T

arg

et

Ac

rea

ge

102% 176%

10,545 acres

1,663 acres

8,930 acres

7,030 acres

8,360 acres

1,045 acres

427 acres

38,000 acres

Seagrass Acreages

1950 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012

Sea

gras

s C

over

age

(x1,

000

acre

s)

0

10

20

30

40 Seagrass Coverage Recovery Goal (38,000 acres)

32,897

Summary of Results• Water quality in Tampa Bay declined in 2011;

however, it still appears to support seagrass expansion in the majority of the segments

• Seagrass acreage in Tampa Bay continues to increase, next update anticipated at the end of 2012

• Targeted evaluation of appropriate management actions to undertake in Old Tampa Bay is ongoing

OTB Integrated Ecological Model• Initiated Fall 2011

• Model development anticipated in 2012 - mid 2013

• Management action scenario simulations Fall 2013 – Early 2014

• Final Report due

June 2014

http://www.swfwmd.state.fl.us/projects/old_tampa_bay/

Additional Background Slides

2009 RA Addendum

• Consortium developed and agreed to limits on nitrogen loads for 189 sources in Sept. 2009

• FDEP approved full RA Plan in December 2010

• Annual compliance assessments

Management Framework• Bay segment annual

average values compared to established bay segment targets for chlorophyll-a and light attenuation

• Results of each comparison placed into decision matrix framework

• Overall management response determined for each bay segment

Green

“Stay the course;” partners continue with planned projects to implement the CCMP. Data summary and reporting via the

Baywide Environmental Monitoring Report and annual assessment and progress reports.

Yellow

TAC and Management Board on caution alert; review monitoring data and loading estimates; attempt to identify causes of

target exceedences; TAC report to Management Board on findings and recommended responses needed.

Red

TAC, Management and Policy Boards on alert; review and report by TAC to Management Board on recommended types of

responses. Management and Policy Boards take appropriate actions to get the program back on track.

Chlorophyll-a

Light Attenuation

YearOld Tampa

BayHills. Bay

Mid. TampaBay

LowerTampaBay

1975 Red Red Red Green

1976 Red Red Red Yellow

1977 Red Red Red Red

1978 Red Red Red Yellow

1979 Red Red Red Red

1980 Red Red Red Red

1981 Red Red Red Red

1982 Red Red Red Red

1983 Red Yellow Red Red

1984 Red Green Red Yellow

1985 Red Red Red Yellow

1986 Red Yellow Red Green

1987 Red Yellow Red Green

1988 Yellow Green Yellow Green

1989 Red Yellow Red Yellow

1990 Red Green Red Yellow

1991 Green Yellow Yellow Yellow

1992 Yellow Green Yellow Yellow

1993 Yellow Green Yellow Yellow

1994 Yellow Yellow Red Red

1995 Red Yellow Red Yellow

1996 Yellow Green Yellow Green

1997 Yellow Green Red Yellow

1998 Red Red Red Red

1999 Yellow Green Yellow Yellow

2000 Green Green Yellow Yellow

2001 Yellow Green Yellow Yellow

2002 Yellow Green Green Green

2003 Red Yellow Green Yellow

2004 Red Green Green Yellow

2005 Green Green Yellow Yellow

2006 Green Green Green Green

2007 Green Green Green Green

2008 Yellow Green Green Yellow

2009 Yellow Yellow Green Green

2010 Green Green Green Green

2011 Red Green Yellow Green

BaySeg-ment

Chlorophyll-a(ug/L)

LightAttenuation (m-1) Resulting

Manage-ment

Response2011TBEPTarget

2011TBEPTarget

Old TB

11.4** 8.5 0.91** 0.83 Red

Hills.Bay

11.2 13.2 1.00 1.58 Green

Mid.TB

8.0* 7.4 0.66 0.83 Yellow

LowerTB

4.3 4.6 0.49 0.63 Green

2011 Results

*Small magnitude exceedence

**Large magnitude exceedence

TBEP Nitrogen Management Strategy

Reduce Nitrogen

Loads

Reduce Chloro-

phyll

ReduceLightAtten-uation

Sea-grass

Recover

Slope = 428 acres/yr

Slope = 660 acres/yr

20

22

24

26

28

30

32

34

36

38

40

1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

Se

ag

ras

s A

cre

ag

e (

1,0

00

's o

f a

cre

s) Initial Estimate (Worst Case)

Previous Decade

Recent

Tampa Bay Seagrass Recovery Goal (38, 000 acres)

298 acres/yr

660 acres/yr

20

22

24

26

28

30

32

34

36

38

40

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Sea

gra

ss C

ove

r (a

cres

x 1

,000

)

Observed Seagrass Coverage

Tampa Bay Seagrass Coverage Goal (38,000 acres)

2008 & 2009 Chlorophyll-a Spatial Distribution

2009 & 2010 Chlorophyll-a Spatial Distribution

2010 & 2011 Chlorophyll-a Spatial Distribution

2011 Chlorophyll-a Temporal Distribution

2011 Kd (Light Attenuation) Temporal Distribution

Questions?

Observed Seagrass Gains & Losses

2001-2004 2004-2006

2006-2008

Observed Seagrass Gains & Losses

2008-2010