2014 10-21 oil sands operations labour demand outlook to 2023
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Photo Courtesy Syncrude Canada Ltd.
Oil Sands Operations Labour Demand Outlook to 2023October 21, 2014
Funded by the Government of Canada
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Facilitator
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Caileigh Rhind:
• Communications Advisor
Presenters
Claudine Vidallo, PMP:
• Labour Market Information (LMI) Project Manager
Emma Monaghan:
• Labour Market Analyst
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Table of Contents (Agenda)
• Labour Market Information (LMI) Products and Services
• Oil Sands Operations Outlook to 2023: Key Findings
– Scope and Methodology
– Current Workforce
– Employment and Hiring Outlooks
– Additional Projections and Analysis
o Hiring Outlook by Operations Type
o Occupations with the Greatest Labour Demand/Supply Risks
o Other Hiring Drivers
o Consolidated Construction, Maintenance and Operations Labour Demand Outlook
• Workforce Strategies
– Workforce Challenges
– Meeting Future Workforce Demands
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Our LMI Expertise
Labour Market Outlooks: Employment and hiring projections for total industry and by core occupation, key province and sub-sector. Supply projections and gap analysis for total industry and by core occupation help understand risks and opportunities.
• Labour Market Outlook to 2022 for Canada’s Oil and Gas Industry
• Oil Sands Construction, Maintenance and Operations Labour Demand Outlook to 2023
HR Trends and Insights: Intelligence on current and short-term labour market conditions and HR trends.
• Exploring Apprenticeship Completions of Skilled Trades in the Upstream Oil and Gas Industry
• Aboriginal Employment in Saskatchewan’s Oil and Gas Industry
• Workforce Conditions in Canada’s Bakken Oil Play
We produce the following LMI products:
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Poll
What other types of Labour Market Information should we produce that would be of most value to you?
a. Labour market news feed
b. Regional labour market information
c. Economic and labour market indicators (Employment data, unemployment rates, etc.)
d. Detailed labour supply studies
e. Others but not listed above (Compensation surveys, etc.)
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Oil Sands Operations Labour Demand Outlook to 2023
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Scope of Oil Sands Operations Labour Demand Outlook
Oil sands operations workforce:
• Directly employed by companies involved in the extraction, production and upgrading of bitumen
• Includes workers:
– located on-site
– in head and regional offices (e.g., in Calgary, Edmonton)
*The worker must be fully supporting oil sands operations in order to be counted in the sector’s workforce numbers.
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Core Operations Occupations
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OIL SANDS OPERATIONS OCCUPATIONS DETAILED IN THE REPORT
Advertising, marketing and public relations professionals Millwrights and machinists
Automotive servicers and technicians Non-destructive testers and inspection techniciansConstruction estimators and managers Petroleum, gas, and chemical process operators
Contractors and supervisors, trades and related occupations Power engineers and power systems operators
Crane and heavy equipment operators Primary production managers and logistics co-ordinators
Drafting technologists and technicians Public and environmental health and occupational health and safety inspectors
Electrical power line and cable workers Purchasing agents and officers
Engineers: chemical, civil, electrical and electronics, geological, mechanical, metallurgical and materials, mining, petroleum, industrial and manufacturing engineers
Purchasing, inventory control workers and managers
Engineering technologists and technicians: chemical, civil, industrial, instrumentation, mechanical, geological and mineral Shippers and receivers
Engineering, facility operation and maintenance managers Steamfitters, pipefitters and sprinkler system installers
Geoscientists and oceanographers Supervisors, mining and quarrying
Heavy-duty equipment mechanics Supervisors, supply chain, tracking and scheduling co-ordination occupations
Industrial instrument technicians and mechanics Water and waste plant operators
Industrial and power system electricians Welders
Land survey technologists and technicians Other occupations
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Business Trends Impacting Oil Sands
• Market diversification
– Pipeline projects
– Rail and trucking to transport product
• New federal rules
– Increased scrutiny on foreign investment
– Merger and acquisition activity
• Attraction, retention and development of workers
– Shortage of workers
– Changing demographics
– Pace of industry activity
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Current Oil Sands Operations Workforce (2014)
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TOP 10 OIL SANDS OPERATIONS OCCUPATIONS EMPLOYED IN 2014 (# OF JOBS)
Total Oil Sands 26,549
Power engineers and power systems operators (9241) 4,716
Heavy equipment operators (except crane) (7521) 3,303
Facility operation and maintenance managers (0714) 1,127
Heavy-duty equipment mechanics (7312) 1,106
Engineering managers (0211) 1,037
Petroleum engineers (2145) 1,024
Managers in natural resources production and fishing (0811) 699
Mechanical engineers (2132) 688
Industrial instrument technicians and mechanics (2243) 679
Industrial electricians (7242) 658
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Oil Sands Operations Employment Outlook to 2023
Over the next decade, oil sands operations is projected to add 15,300 new jobs – with employment estimated at 41,900 workers by 2023.
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E = Estimated; F = Forecasted
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Occupations with Greatest Job Increases due to Industry Activity
Power engineers and heavy equipment operators account for close to 30 per cent of new jobs created between 2014 and 2023.
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TOP 10 OIL SANDS OCCUPATIONS WITH GREATEST JOB INCREASES DUE TO INDUSTRY ACTIVITY TO 2023
Total Oil Sands Operations 15,330
Power engineers and power systems operators (9241) 2,895
Heavy equipment operators (except crane) (7521) 1,470
Petroleum engineers (2145) 825
Engineering managers (0211) 660
Facility operation and maintenance managers (0714) 555
Heavy-duty equipment mechanics (7312) 495
Managers in natural resources production and fishing (0811) 465
Industrial instrument technicians and mechanics (2243) 405
Mechanical engineers (2132) 375
Geoscientists and oceanographers (2113) 325
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Net Hiring Requirements for Oil Sands Operations Sector
Net hiring requirements = hiring due to industry expansion + hiring due to age-related attrition.
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TOP 10 OIL SANDS OCCUPATIONS WITH GREATEST NET HIRING REQUIREMENTS TO 2023 (# OF JOB OPENINGS)
Total Oil Sands 21,710
Power engineers and power systems operators (9241) 4,130
Heavy equipment operators (except crane) (7521) 2,070
Petroleum engineers (2145) 1,050
Engineering managers (0211) 980
Facility operation and maintenance managers (0714) 880
Heavy-duty equipment mechanics (7312) 735
Managers in natural resources production and fishing (0811) 685
Industrial instrument technicians and mechanics (2243) 550
Mechanical engineers (2132) 505
Industrial electricians (7242) 460
Total oil sands operations hiring to support growth
15,330
Total hiring due to age-related attrition
6,380
Net hiring within in situ operations to 2023
21,710
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Net Hiring Requirements for In Situ Operations
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Total in situ hiring to support growth
10,610
Total hiring due to age-related attrition
3,340
Net hiring within in situ operations to 2023
13,950
TOP 10 OIL SANDS IN SITU OCCUPATIONS WITH GREATEST NET HIRING REQUIREMENTS TO 2023 (# OF JOB OPENINGS)
Total In Situ 13,950
Power engineers and power systems operators (9241) 3,380
Petroleum engineers (2145) 990
Engineering managers (0211) 730
Managers in natural resources production and fishing (0811) 540
Facility operation and maintenance managers (0714) 455
Industrial instrument technicians and mechanics (2243) 410
Purchasing agents and officers (1225) 390
Geological and mineral technologists and technicians (2212) 380
Geoscientists and oceanographers (2113) 380
Mechanical engineers (2132) 335
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Net Hiring Requirements for Mining Operations
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Total mining hiring to support growth
4,290
Total hiring due to age-related attrition
1,990
Net hiring within mining operations to 2023
6,280
TOP 10 OIL SANDS MINING OCCUPATIONS WITH GREATEST NET HIRING REQUIREMENTS TO 2023 (# OF JOB OPENINGS)
Total Mining 6,280
Heavy equipment operators (except crane) (7521) 2,050
Heavy-duty equipment mechanics (7312) 515
Power engineers and power systems operators (9241) 345
Facility operation and maintenance managers (0714) 315
Petroleum, gas, and chemical process operator (9232) 215
Industrial electricians (7242) 190
Engineering managers (0211) 185
Construction millwrights and industrial mechanics (7311) 175
Welders and related machine operators (7237) 145
Mechanical engineers (2132) 125
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Net Hiring Requirements for Upgrading Operations
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Total upgrading hiring to support growth
430
Total hiring due to age-related attrition
1,050
Net hiring within upgrading operations to 2023
1,480
TOP 10 OIL SANDS UPGRADING OCCUPATIONS WITH GREATEST NET HIRING REQUIREMENTS TO 2023 (# OF JOB OPENINGS)
Total Upgrading 1,480
Power engineers and power systems operators (9241) 400
Facility operation and maintenance managers (0714) 105
Engineering managers (0211) 60
Chemical engineers (2134) 55
Industrial electricians (7242) 50
Heavy-duty equipment mechanics (7312) 50
Mechanical engineers (2132) 45
Electrical and electronics engineers (2133) 45
Industrial instrument technicians and mechanics (2243) 45
Managers in natural resources production and fishing (0811) 40
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Power Engineers
The greatest demand in the oil sands sector over the next decade will be for power engineers. Assuming the same distribution of power engineers in 2010 over the next decade, net hiring requirements for each power engineering level in 2023 are as follows:
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ESTIMATED OIL SANDS OPERATIONS NET HIRING REQUIREMENTS TO 2023 FOR POWER ENGINEERS
Class Number of Job Openings
First 85
Second 260
Third 1,450
Fourth 1,100
Total 2,895
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Managerial Occupations
Retirements amongst managers and supervisors will lead to a loss of knowledge, experience and mentoring capacity and will have a negative impact on workforce development and productivity.
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MANAGERIAL OCCUPATIONS WITH ABOVE-AVERAGE NET HIRING REQUIREMENTS TO 2023Average Net Hiring Requirements Across All Occupations (82%)
1 Purchasing managers (0113) 125%
2Contractors and supervisors, machining, metal forming, shaping and erecting trades and related occupations (7201)
100%
3 Managers in natural resources production and fishing (0811) 97%
4 Contractors and supervisors, mechanic trades (7301) 95%
5 Engineering managers (0211) 94%
6 Supervisors, supply chain, tracking and scheduling co-ordination occupations (1215) 91%
7 Construction managers (0711) 91%
8 Contractors and supervisors, electrical trades and telecommunications occupations (7202) 88%
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Supply Chain Occupations Needed for Expansion and Production
Oil sands investment and accelerated growth are driving demand for oil and gas services, materials, equipment manufacturing and rentals, contracted professional and technical services and the need for supply chain management, procurement and logistics occupations.
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SUPPLY CHAIN OCCUPATIONS WITH ABOVE-AVERAGE NET HIRING REQUIREMENTS TO 2023
Average Net Hiring Requirements Across All Occupations (82%)
Purchasing managers (0113) 125%
Purchasing agents and officers (1225) 118%
Shippers and receivers (1521) 95%
Purchasing and inventory control workers (1524) 94%
Supervisors, supply chain, tracking and scheduling co-ordination occupations (1215) 91%
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Non-Retirement Turnover
Strong competition for workers and employee turnover will drive additional hiring within the sector. Assuming a 3% non-retirement turnover rate across the industry, hiring requirements will increase to 30,665 over the next decade.
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NON-RETIREMENT TURNOVER RATE
HIRING DUE TO NON-RETIREMENT
TURNOVER TO 2023
0% 0
1% 2,985
3% 8,955
6% 17,915
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Labour Productivity
The Petroleum HR Council’s labour demand model assumes that labour productivity grows at one per cent per year. If one per cent productivity growth is not achieved or the industry is indeed experiencing a loss of productivity, additional workers will be required.
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LABOUR PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH RATE
NET HIRING REQUIREMENTS TO 2023
1% 21,710
0% 27,075
- 1% 33,190
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Oil Sands Construction, Maintenance and Operations
This table shows the overlapping occupations that are required for oil sands construction, maintenance and operations.
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OCCUPATION (NOC)BUILDFORCE
(Aggregated Oil Sands Construction)
OILMAP(On-site Oil Sands
Construction & Maintenance)
PETROLEUM HR COUNCIL
(Oil Sands Operations)
Construction millwrights and industrial mechanics (7311) • • •Crane operators (7371) • • •Heavy equipment operators (except crane) (7521) • • •Industrial electricians (7242) • • •Industrial instrument technicians and mechanics (2243) • • •Steamfitters, pipefitters and sprinkler system installers (7252) • • •Welders and related machine operators (7237) • • •
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Oil Sands Construction and Operations Workforce Projections to 2023
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E = Estimated; F = Forecasted
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Poll
What do you use Labour Market Information for?
a. Develop and implement workforce strategies to build a sustainable oil and gas workforce
b. Make effective decisions on labour, immigration, education and training policies and programs
c. Align education and training programs with industry’s occupational requirements
d. Make career or job recommendations
e. Others not listed above (please specify in chat box)
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Workforce Strategies
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Workforce Challenges for Oil Sands Operations
• Oil sands expansion
– 15,330 new jobs are required over the next decade
• Shortages for certain occupations
– Occupations requiring specialized training
– Occupations coveted by other industries
• Aging workforce
– 6,380 workers will be eligible for retirement over the next decade
• Difficulties recruiting to remote locations
– Higher costs of living
– Rotational work arrangements
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Meeting Future Workforce Demands
• Attracting and retaining under-represented workers
• Alternate sources of labour supply
• Training and development
– Oil Sands Learning Network
– Investing in talent management
– Temporary Foreign Workers (TFW)
– Increase apprenticeship completion for trades occupations
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Exploring Apprenticeship Completions of Skilled Trades
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Apprenticeships are a viable solution to alleviate labour shortages but fewer apprentices are completing their training
Registered Apprentices, New Registrations and Apprentice Completions 1991–2011, Major Oil Producing Provinces • Apprenticeship program
registrations are increasing but completions have not grown proportionally.
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Factors Affecting Apprenticeship Completions
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Interrelated factors such as economic downturns and employer-specific challenges affect apprenticeship completion rates.
LABOUR MARKET FACTORS EMPLOYER CHALLENGES APPRENTICE CONCERNS
Economic downturns, subsequent lay-offs and workers transition to more stable occupations
Unable to provide apprentices with the variety of experience required across the scope of practice for the trade, preventing the apprentice from progressing
Remote worksites and challenging working conditions
High tuition and training costs Poor communication between mentors and apprentices
Inadequate employer onboarding due to rapid hiring requirements
Lost wages during training programs Limited ability to provide time off to attend training programs
Added level of responsibility on becoming a journeyperson
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Strategies to Increase Apprenticeship Completions
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Specific recommendations include:
• Government and post-secondary institutions continue to increase seats in training programs, and provide tax incentives and grants
• Companies encourage contractors to employ apprentices and foster mentorship programs and
provide support to apprentices progressing through training • Employers implement policies and practices that support workers through their apprenticeship
training
• Apprentices and employers be knowledgeable about transferrable skills from other industries, such as construction, manufacturing, transportation and warehousing, utilities, agriculture and forestry to the oil and gas industry.
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Questions?
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Upcoming Product Releases
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PRODUCT TARGET RELEASE
Diversity in Canada’s Oil and Gas Industry November 2014
HR Trends and Insights Survey Results (Fall 2014 Edition) November 2014
Situational Analysis: Occupational Shifts and Shortages in Canada’s Oil and Gas Industry
February 2015
Rotational Workforce in Alberta’s Oil and Gas Industry March 2015
Labour Market Projections for Canada’s Oil and Gas Industry
Spring/Summer 2015
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To be added to our eNewsletter, email info@careersinoilandgas.com
Find us on social media:
For More Information
@PetroHRCouncil@CareersInOandG
facebook.com/careersinoilandgas slideshare.net/PetroHRCouncil
Funded by the Government of Canada
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