2014 cattle market situation and outlook
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2014 Cattle Market Situation and Outlook
Derrell S. PeelBreedlove Professor of Agribusiness and Extension Livestock Marketing SpecialistOklahoma State University
CURRENT SITUATION
Thursday February 6, 2014
$/cwt.• Boxed Beef
– Choice $213.51– Select $212.31
• Fed Cattle (5-Mkt) $140.80• 7/800 Steers (Okla Ave.) $165.55• 4/500 Steers (Okla Ave.) $211.50
BOXED BEEF CUTOUT VALUEChoice 600-900 Lbs. Carcass, Weekly
150
160
170
180
190
200
210
220
230
240
JAN APR JUL OCT
$ Per Cwt.
Avg.2008-12
2013
2014
C-P-6202/05/14Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-AMS
WHOLESALE BEEF PRICEChoice, Monthly
120
130
140
150
160
170
180
190
200
210
220
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
$ Per Cwt
Choice
Livestock Marketing Information CenterData Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC
SLAUGHTER STEER PRICESSouthern Plains, Weekly
95
105
115
125
135
145
155
JAN APR JUL OCT
$ Per Cwt.
Avg.2008-12
2013
2014
C-P-5202/05/14Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-AMS
MED. & LRG. #1 FEEDER STEER PRICES700-800 Pounds, Southern Plains, Weekly
105
115
125
135
145
155
165
175
JAN APR JUL OCT
$ Per Cwt.
Avg.2008-12
2013
2014
C-P-4902/05/14Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-AMS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC
MED. & LRG. #1 STEER CALF PRICES400-500 Pounds, Southern Plains, Weekly
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
JAN APR JUL OCT
$ Per Cwt.
Avg.2008-12
2013
2014
C-P-49A02/05/14Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-AMS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC
FED, FEEDER AND CALF PRICESWeekly
8090
100110120130140150160170180190200210220
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
$ Per Cwt.
Fed
725 lb.Steers
475 lb.Steers
Livestock Marketing Information CenterData Source: USDA-AMS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC
SLAUGHTER COW PRICESSouthern Plains, 85-90% Lean, Weekly
50
60
70
80
90
100
JAN APR JUL OCT
$ Per Cwt.
Avg.2008-12
2013
2014
C-P-3502/05/14Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-AMS
BOXED COW-BEEF CUTOUT VALUECutter Cow, Weekly
120
130
140
150
160
170
180
JAN APR JUL OCT
$ Per Cwt.
Avg.2008-12
2013
2014
02/05/14Livestock Marketing Information CenterData Source: USDA-AMS
Boner Cow PriceAnnual, Oklahoma City
$40
$50
$60
$70
$80
$90
$100
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
2014 -2016 forecast,Analysis by Derrell Peel
Replacement HeifersFebruary, 2014
Location Weight Price Per Head
MT 558 $192.25 $1073SD 578 $185.50 $1072CO 601 $182.16 $1095NE 618 $219.26 $1355SD 623 $186.50 $1162NE 639 $200.00 $1279NE 677 $231.34 $1566IA 714 $179.00 $1278KS 844 $181.00 $1528OK 900 $157.25 $1415
Heifer DiscountsPercent Less Than Steer Price
56789
101112131415
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
450-500lb.
550-600lb.
650-700lb.
750-800
Heifer DiscountsPercent Less Than Steer Price
56789
101112131415
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
450-500lb.
500-550lb.
550-600lb.
600-650lb.
Heifer DiscountsPercent Less Than Steer Price
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
600-650 lb.
650-700 lb.
700-750 lb.
750-800 lb.
Heifer DiscountsPercent Less Than Steer Price, First Quarter
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
450-500 lb. 500-550 lb. 550-600 lb. 600-650 lb. 650-700 lb. 700-750 lb 750-800 lb.
January
February
March
Heifer DiscountsPercent Less Than Steer Price, Second Quarter
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
450-500 lb. 500-550 lb. 550-600 lb. 600-650 lb. 650-700 lb. 700-750 lb 750-800 lb.
April
May
June
Heifer DiscountsPercent Less Than Steer Price, Third Quarter
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
450-500 lb. 500-550 lb. 550-600 lb. 600-650 lb. 650-700 lb. 700-750 lb 750-800 lb.
July
August
September
Heifer DiscountsPercent Less Than Steer Price, Fourth Quarter
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
450-500 lb. 500-550 lb. 550-600 lb. 600-650 lb. 650-700 lb. 700-750 lb 750-800 lb.
October
November
December
CATTLE INVENTORIES
U.S. Cattle Inventory2013 2014 % Change
1000 Head 1000 Head
All Cattle and Calves 89300 87730 -1.8
Beef Cows 29297 29042 -0.9
Dairy Cows 9218 9209 -0.01
Beef Replacements 5381 5471 +1.7
Dairy Replacements 4551 4539 -0.25
Feeder Supply 25434 24739 -2.7
Cattle on Feed 13364 12695 -5.0
2012 2013
Calf Crop 34279 33930 -1.0
JANUARY 1 TOTAL CATTLE INVENTORYU.S., Annual
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
1954 1959 1964 1969 1974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004 2009 2014
Mil. Head
C-N-0101/31/14
-1.8 Percent2014 = 87.7 Million Head
Livestock Marketing Information CenterData Source: USDA-NASS
Oklahoma Cattle Inventory2013 2014 % Change
1000 Head 1000 Head
All Cattle and Calves 4200 4300 +2.4
Beef Cows 1754 1805 +2.9
Dairy Cows 46 45 -2.2
Beef Replacements 280 325 +16.1
Dairy Replacements 20 20 0.0
Feeder Supply 1635 1715 +4.9
Cattle on Feed 345 265 -23.2
2012 2013
Calf Crop 1670 1670 0.0
Oklahoma and U.S. Cattle Cycles: Beef Cow Inventory, January 1
1500
1700
1900
2100
2300
2500
2700
2900
1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 201229000
31000
33000
35000
37000
39000
41000
43000
45000
47000
OKLA US
JANUARY 1 CATTLE ON FEED
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
1965 1968 1971 1974 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013
Mil. Head
Data Source: USDA-NASS, Calculations by Derrell Peel
JANUARY 1 FEEDER CATTLE SUPPLIESResidual, Outside Feedlots, U.S.
2426283032343638404244464850
1965 1968 1971 1974 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013
Mil. Head
Data Source: USDA-NASS, Calculations by Derrell Peel
Cattle on Feed as % of Estimated Feeder Supplies
January 1, 1965-2014
20.00%
25.00%
30.00%
35.00%
40.00%
45.00%
50.00%
55.00%
60.00%
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
CATTLE ON FEEDOklahoma, Monthly
225
250
275
300
325
350
375
400
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
1000 Head
Avg.2007/11
2012
2013
2014
Livestock Marketing Information CenterData Source: USDA-NASS
Share of Cattle on FeedTexas and Oklahoma, 12 Month Moving Ave.
3567435977
3628136586
3689237196
3750037803
3810838412
3871839022
3932639630
3993440238
4054440848
4115341456
26.0%
27.0%
28.0%
29.0%
30.0%
31.0%
Share of Cattle on FeedIowa and Nebraska, 12 Month Moving Ave.
3567435977
3628136586
3689237196
3750037803
3810838412
3871839022
3932639630
3993440238
4054440848
4115341456
20.0%
22.0%
24.0%
26.0%
28.0%
30.0%
January 1, 2014
1000 HeadAll Cattle and Calves Cattle on Feed
• 1 TX 10,900• 2 NE 6,150• 3 KS 5,800• 4 CA 5,250• 5 OK 4,300• 6 MO 3,800• 8 IA 3,700• 9 SD 3,650• 10 WI 3,350
• 1/ 2 TX/NE
2,450• 3 KS 2,150• 4 IA 1,230• 5 CO 990• 6 CA 510• 7 SD 310• 8 MN 300• 9 AZ 274• 10 OK 265
January 1, 2014
1000 Head Beef Cows Beef Heifers
• 1 TX 3,910• 2 MO 1,820• 3 OK 1,805• 4 NE 1,797• 5 SD 1,635• 6 MT 1,476• 7 KS 1,414• 8 KY 1,012• 9 ND 943• 10 IA 855
• 1 TX 640• 2 MT 430• 3 NE 387• 4 SD 330• 5 OK 325• 6 MO 305• 7 MO 270• 8 KS 240• 9 WY 175• 10 ND 170
January 1, 2014Feeder Supply Stocker Ratio
• 1 TX 2,960• 2 OK 1,715• 3 KS 1,690• 4 CA 1,430• 5 MO 1,380• 6 NE 1,345• 7 SD 1,135• 8 IA 1,050• 9 WI 820• 10 MN 775
• 0.769• 1.027• 1.320• 0.711• 0.798• 0.801• 0.672• 1.029• 0.603• 0.994
Stocker Ratio = Feeder Supply / Calf Crop
U.S. Avg = 0.729
Regional Share of Feeder SuppliesOutside of Feedlots, January 1
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
Northwest
Southwest
N.Roc
kies
S.Roc
kies
N.Plains
S.Plains
G.Lakes
Midwest Gulf
South
Appala
chian
E.Seaboa
rd
Northea
st
10 yr ave. 2014
Southern Plains Feeder Share,January 1
22.0%23.0%24.0%25.0%26.0%27.0%28.0%29.0%30.0%31.0%
1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013
Calves, Steers and Other Heifers Grazing Small Grains Pasture
Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Million Head
Oklahoma Stocker Ratio, January 1
0.900.951.001.051.101.151.201.251.301.351.401.451.501.551.60
-105
-65 -53
-48
-40
-31
-30
-29
-25
-20
-16-15
-12
-11
-10
-10-9
-9
-8-5
-4
-4
-3
MD -3
-3
CT -2
DE -1
-1
NJ -1
-1
MA -1NH -1
0
RI 0
0
VT 0
0
1
1
3
310
15
15
20
21
3151
6386
-110 to -11-11 to -1-1 to 33 to 87
CHANGE IN BEEF COWS NUMBERSJANUARY 1, 2013 TO JANUARY 2014
(1000 Head)
Livestock Marketing Information CenterData Source: USDA-NASS
U.S. Total: -25502/03/14
-550
-119 -100
-79
-58-45
-44
-38
-32
-24
-22
-20
-20
-15-10
-10
-10
-10
-8
-5
-5
-5
-5
-4
MD -2
-1
MA -1NH -1
0
RI 0
DE 1
1
1
NJ 1CT 2
2
VT 24
4
4
5
10
2229
30
33
41
50 60
78
-550 to -15-15 to -1-1 to 44 to 79
CHANGE IN BEEF COWS NUMBERSJANUARY 1, 2012 TO JANUARY 2013
(1000 Head)
Livestock Marketing Information CenterData Source: USDA-NASS
U.S. Total: -86202/04/13
-660
-288-53
-51
-40
-28
-21
-20
-19
-18
-18
-16
-11
-9
-9
-9
-8-5
-3
-3
-2
NJ -1-1
-1
RI 0
DE 0
0
0VT 0
0
0
CT 1
MD 1
NH 1MA 2
3
45
5
10
1010
10
14
20
20
22
23
55112
-660 to -9-9 to 00 to 1010 to 113
CHANGE IN BEEF COWS NUMBERSJANUARY 1, 2011 TO JANUARY 2012
(1000 Head)
Livestock Marketing Information CenterData Source: USDA-NASS
U.S. Total: -96701/27/12
CALF CROPU.S., Annual
30
35
40
45
50
55
1952 1957 1962 1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007 2012
Mil. Head
C-N-18A02/04/13Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-NASS
-1 Percent2013 = 33.9 Million Head
JANUARY 1 FEEDER CATTLE SUPPLIESResidual, Outside Feedlots, U.S.
20
25
30
35
40
1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014
Mil. Head
C-N-3001/31/14Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-NASS
HEIFERS HELD AS BEEF COW REPLACEMENTS
January 1, U.S.
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014
Mil. Head
C-N-3801/31/14
+1.7 %
Livestock Marketing Information CenterData Source: USDA-NASS
HEIFERS ON FEEDQuarterly
3500
3700
3900
4100
4300
4500
4700
JAN-MAR APR-JUN JUL-SEP OCT-DEC
1000 Head
Avg.2006/10
2011
2012
2013
2014
M-S-0108/28/13Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC
HEIFERS HELD AS BEEF COW REPLACEMENTSJANUARY 1
4.5
4.8
5.0
5.3
5.5
5.8
6.0
6.3
6.5
6.8
1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
Mill
ion
Head
Replacement Heifers Entering the Herd
40.0%42.5%45.0%47.5%50.0%52.5%55.0%57.5%60.0%62.5%65.0%67.5%70.0%
% EnteringProjectedAverage
BEEF REPLACEMENT HEIFERS ENTERING HERD
2.02.12.22.32.42.52.62.72.82.93.03.13.23.33.4
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
Mil. Head
Livestock Marketing Information CenterData Source: USDA-NASS and Calculation by Derrell Peel
Cow Slaughter, Annual
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013
Million Head
Livestock Marketing Information CenterData Source: USDA-NASS, Compiled by LMIC and Derrell Peel
HEIFER RETENTION AND COW CULLINGas % of January 1 Cow Herd
14%
15%
16%
17%
18%
19%
20%
1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016
Heifer %
7%
8%
9%
10%
11%
12%
13%
Culling %
Heifers Proj Cow Culling Proj
Analysis by Derrell PeelData Source: USDA-NASS
Average:Heifer % = 17.1Culling % = 9.7
JANUARY 1 BEEF COW INVENTORYU.S., Annual
28
30
32
34
36
38
40Mil. Head
C-N-0201/29/12Analysis by Derrell Peel
Data Source: USDA-NASS
FEED AND FORAGESITUATION
U S ALL HAY STOCKSDecember 1
70
80
90
100
110
120
1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Mil. Tons
G-NP-2208/30/13Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-NASS, Compiled & Forecasts by LMIC
NH -57%
-45%
-33%-17%
MA -15%
-13%
-9%-8%
NJ -8%
MD -6%
-6%
-4%
CT -4%
-3%
-2%
0%0%
0%
RI 0%
0%
0%
VT 3%
5%
7%
9%
9%10%
11%12%
14%
15%
16%
18%
24%
24%
25%
25%
25%
26%
28%
34%
34%
39%
49%
50%
60%
87%
DE 88%
-100% to -25%-25% to 0%0% to 25%25% to 100%
PERCENT CHANGE DECEMBER 1 HAY STOCKS(2013-2012)
Livestock Marketing Information CenterData Source: USDA-NASS
1/21/2014
U.S. Total: 17%
OKLAHOMA ALL HAY STOCKSDecember 1
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
5500
6000
6500
1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013
1000 Tons
Other Hay ProductionTons Per Beef Cow
19601963
19661969
19721975
19781981
19841987
19901993
19961999
20022005
20082011
0.00 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.00 1.25 1.50 1.75 2.00 2.25 2.50 2.75
Oklahoma
SOUTHERN PLAINS CORN PRICESWeekly
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
8.00
9.00$ Per Bu.
Avg.2008-12
2013
2014
G-P-0401/30/14Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-AMS
CENTRAL ILLINOIS SOYBEAN MEAL (48%) PRICES
Weekly
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
JAN
APRJU
LOCT
$ Per Ton
Avg.2008-12
2013
2014
G-P-0701/23/14Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-AMS
CATTLE SLAUGHTER AND BEEF PRODUCTION
CATTLE ON FEEDUS Total, Monthly
9.5
10.0
10.5
11.0
11.5
12.0
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
Mil. Head
Avg.2008/12
2013
2014
C-N-1001/24/14Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-NASS
AVERAGE RETURNS TO CATTLE FEEDERSFeeding 725 Lb. Steers, S. Plains, Monthly
-325
-275
-225
-175
-125
-75
-25
25
75
125
175
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
$ Per Head
Livestock Marketing Information CenterData Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC
C-P-2201/07/14
Latest Data: December 2013
CHOICE STEER PRICE vs BREAKEVENCattle Feeding, S. Plains, Monthly
75
85
95
105
115
125
135
145
155
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
$ Per Cwt
SteerPrice
Breakeven
ProjectedBreakeven
Livestock Marketing Information CenterData Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC
C-P-2101/07/14
Latest Data: December 2013
Cattle Slaughter, Annual
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
Million Head
M-S-03A01/29/13Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC
BEEF PRODUCTION vs. CATTLE INVENTORY
Inventory on January 1, U.S.
88
93
98
103
108
113
118
1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014
Mil. Head
22
23
24
25
26
27
28Bil. Pounds
Commercial Beef Production
Total Cattle Inventory
M-S-2308/10/12Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-AMS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC
2014 Meat Production and Consumption
Production ConsumptionPer Capita
ConsumptionChange
2013 2014 2013-2014 2014 2013-2104Million lbs. Million lbs. % Retail Lbs. %
Beef 25694 23971 -6.7 53.2 -5.7Pork 23167 23559 +1.7 46.5 -0.2Broilers 37412 38687 +3.4 83.8 +2.6
BEEF DEMAND
BEEF GRADED CHOICEAs a Percent of Beef Graded, Weekly
57
59
61
63
65
67
69Percent
Avg.2008-12
2013
2014
M-S-2602/03/14Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-AMS
CHOICE MINUS SELECT BEEF PRICESCarcass Cutout Value 600-900 Lbs., Weekly
0
5
10
15
20
25
JAN APR JUL OCT
$ Per Cwt.
Avg.2008-12
2013
2014
C-P-6802/05/14Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-AMS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC
RETAIL BEEF PRICEMonthly
350
375
400
425
450
475
500
525
550
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
$ Per Cwt
All Fresh
Choice
Livestock Marketing Information CenterData Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC
C-P-2110/03/13
COMMERCIAL BEEF PRODUCTIONQuarterly
5.3
5.7
6.1
6.5
6.9
JAN-MAR APR-JUN JUL-SEP OCT-DEC
Bil. Pounds
Avg.2008/12
2013
2014
2015
M-S-0112/31/13Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC
WHOLESALE BEEF RIBEYE PRICESBoneless, Light, Weekly
450
500
550
600
650
700
750
800
850$ Per Cwt.
Avg.2008-12
2013
2014
M-P-2102/05/14Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-AMS
WHOLESALE BEEF LOIN STRIP PRICESBoneless 0x1, Weekly
350400450500550600650700750800850$ Per Cwt.
Avg.2008-12
2013
2014
02/05/14Livestock Marketing Information CenterData Source: USDA-AMS
WHOLESALE BEEF FULL TENDER PRICESMusl-On, 5 Pounds and Up, Weekly
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400$ Per Cwt.
Avg.2008-12
2013
2014
M-P-2302/05/14Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-AMS
WHOLESALE BEEF CHUCK PRICESBoneless 2 Piece, Weekly
140
160
180
200
220
240
260
280
300$ Per Cwt.
Avg.2008-12
2013
2014
02/05/14Livestock Marketing Information CenterData Source: USDA-AMS
WHOLESALE BEEF BOTTOM ROUND PRICES18-33 Pounds, Weekly
140
160
180
200
220
240
260
280
300
JAN
APRJU
LOCT
$ Per Cwt.
Avg.2008-12
2013
2014
M-P-2202/05/14Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-AMS
WHOLESALE BONELESS BEEF PRICESFresh, 90% Lean, Weekly
130140150160170180190200210220230$ Per Cwt.
Avg.2008-12
2013
2014
M-P-2402/05/14Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-AMS
WHOLESALE BONELESS BEEF PRICESFresh, 50% Lean, Weekly
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130$ Per Cwt.
Avg.2008-12
2013
2014
M-P-2502/05/14Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-AMS
COMMERCIAL PORK PRODUCTIONQuarterly
5.0
5.3
5.5
5.8
6.0
6.3
6.5
6.8
7.0
JAN-MAR APR-JUN JUL-SEP OCT-DEC
Bil. Pounds
Avg.2008/12
2013
2014
2015
M-S-0612/31/13Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC
RETAIL PORK PRICEMonthly
285
305
325
345
365
385
405
JAN MAR MAY JUL SEP NOV
Cents Per Pound
Avg.2007-11
2012
2013
M-P-0501/17/14Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: Bureau of Labor Statics & USDA-ERS
WHOLESALE HAM PRICESTrimmed Selected, 23-27 Pounds, Weekly
50556065707580859095
100$ Per Cwt.
Avg.2008-12
2013
2014
M-P-2702/05/14Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-AMS
WHOLESALE PORK LOIN PRICES1/4 Inch Trim, Vacuum Sealed, Weekly
85
95
105
115
125
135
145
155$ Per Cwt.
Avg.2008-12
2013
2014
M-P-2802/05/14Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-AMS
WHOLESALE PORK BELLY PRICESSkin-on, 14-16 Pounds, Weekly
70
90
110
130
150
170
190$ Per Cwt.
Avg.2008-12
2013
2014
M-P-2902/05/14Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-AMS
WHOLESALE PORK TRIMMING PRICESFresh, 72% Lean, Weekly
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110$ Per Cwt.
Avg.2008-12
2013
2014
M-P-3002/05/14Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-AMS
WHOLESALE PORK SPARERIB PRICESTrimmed, Light Poly, Weekly
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
180
190$ Per Cwt.
Avg.2008-12
2013
2014
M-P-3102/05/14Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-AMS
RTC BROILER PRODUCTIONQuarterly
8.5
9.0
9.5
10.0
10.5
JAN-MAR APR-JUN JUL-SEP OCT-DEC
Bil. Pounds
Avg.2008/12
2013
2014
2015
M-S-3012/31/13Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC
WHOLESALE CHICKEN BREAST PRICESSkinless/Boneless, Northeast, Truckload, Weekly
110120130140150160170180190200210Cents Per Pound
Avg.2008-12
2013
2014
P-P-0202/06/14Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-AMS
WHOLESALE CHICKEN LEG PRICESNortheast, Truckload, Weekly
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85Cents Per Pound
Avg.2008-12
2013
2014
P-P-0302/06/14Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-AMS
WHOLESALE CHICKEN WING PRICESNortheast, Truckload, Weekly
100
125
150
175
200
225Cents Per Pound
Avg.2008-12
2013
2014
P-P-0702/06/14Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-AMS
RETAIL CHICKEN PRICEWhole Fresh, Monthly
115
120
125
130
135
140
145
150
155
160
JAN MAR MAY JUL SEP NOV
Cents Per Pound
Avg.2007-11
2012
2013
M-P-0601/17/14Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: Bureau of Labor Statics & USDA-ERS
BROILER EGGS SETWeekly
175
180
185
190
195
200
205
210
215Mil. Eggs
Avg.2008-12
2013
2014
P-S-1002/06/14Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-NASS
INTERNATIONAL TRADE
U S BEEF AND VEAL EXPORTSCarcass Weight, Monthly
130
150
170
190
210
230
250
270
290
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
Mil. Pounds
Avg.2007-11
2012
2013
I-N-1601/09/14Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-ERS & USDA-FAS
U S BEEF AND VEAL EXPORTSCarcass Weight, Annual
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014
Bil. Pounds
I-N-0612/29/13Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-ERS & USDA-FAS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC
U S BEEF EXPORTS TO MAJOR MARKETSCarcass Weight, Monthly
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Mil. Pounds
Japan
I-N-3501/09/14Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-ERS & USDA-FAS
U S BEEF EXPORTS TO MAJOR MARKETSCarcass Weight, Monthly
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Mil. Pounds
Canada
I-N-3501/09/14Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-ERS & USDA-FAS
U S BEEF EXPORTS TO MAJOR MARKETSCarcass Weight, Monthly
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Mil. Pounds
Mexico
I-N-3501/09/14Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-ERS & USDA-FAS
U S BEEF EXPORTS TO MAJOR MARKETSCarcass Weight, Monthly
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Mil. Pounds
SouthKorea
I-N-3501/09/14Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-ERS & USDA-FAS
U S BEEF AND VEAL IMPORTSCarcass Weight, Monthly
125
145
165
185
205
225
245
265
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
Mil. Pounds
Avg.2007-11
2012
2013
I-N-1501/09/14Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-ERS & USDA-FAS
U S BEEF AND VEAL IMPORTSCarcass Weight, Annual
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014
Bil. Pounds
I-N-1212/29/13Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-ERS & USDA-FAS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC
MAJOR U S BEEF IMPORT SOURCESCarcass Weight, Annual
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
Australia New Zealand Canada Mexico
Mil. Pounds
Avg.2006/10
2011
2012
I-N-3612/30/13Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-ERS & USDA-FAS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC
CATTLE IMPORTS FROM MEXICOAnnual
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011
Thou. Head
I-N-1711/26/13Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-ERS & USDA-FAS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC
STEER HIDE AND OFFAL VALUELive Animal Basis, Weekly
9.00
10.00
11.00
12.00
13.00
14.00
15.00
16.00
JAN APR JUL OCT
$ Per Cwt.
Avg.2008-12
2013
2014
C-P-3902/05/14Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-AMS
Price-Weight Relationship Medium/Large No. 1 Steers, 7 Mkt. Ave.
125135145155165175185195205215225235245
375 425 475 525 575 625 675 725 775 825 875 925
weight (pounds)
Pric
e ($
/cw
t) Sep-13Jun-1324-Jan-14Nov-13
Steer Price, Total Value and Value of Gain January 24, 2014, 7 Mkt. Ave., Oklahoma
Weight (lbs)
Average Price ($/cwt.)
Total Value ($/hd)
VOG400 lb. Beg. Weight($/lb.)
VOG450 lb. Beg. Weight($/lb
VOG500 lb. Beg. Weight($/lb.)
VOG550 lb. Beg. Weight($/lb.)
VOG600 lb. Beg. Weight($/lb.)
VOG650 lb. Beg. Weight($/lb.)
400 $231.29 $925 450 $223.03 $1,004 $1.57500 $212.70 $1,063 $1.38 $1.20550 $201.87 $1,110 $1.23 $1.07 $0.94600 $190.39 $1,142 $1.09 $0.92 $0.79 $0.64650 $180.02 $1,170 $0.98 $0.83 $0.71 $0.60 $0.56700 $173.48 $1,214 $0.96 $0.84 $0.75 $0.69 $0.72 $0.88750 $168.79 $1,266 $0.97 $0.87 $0.81 $0.78 $0.82 $0.96800 $165.13 $1,321 $0.99 $0.91 $0.86 $0.84 $0.89 $1.01850 $161.19 $1,370 $0.99 $0.92 $0.88 $0.87 $0.91 $1.00900 $157.45 $1,417 $0.98 $0.92 $0.88 $0.88 $0.92 $0.99
ESTIMATED AVERAGE COW CALF RETURNSReturns Over Cash Cost (Includes Pasture Rent), Annual
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013
$ Per Cow
C-P-6610/29/13Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC
2014 Beef Sector Outlook
• Beef Packers– Margin and volume challenges
• Feedlots– Margin and volume challenges
• Stocker/Backgrounding– Strong value of added feeder weight
• Cow-Calf– Record profits
• Focus on production and cost management– Rebuilding challenges
ANNUAL AVERAGE CATTLE PRICESSouthern Plains
50
70
90
110
130
150
170
190
210
1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
$ Per Cwt
500-600lbSteerCalves
700-800lbFeederSteers
FedSteers
Livestock Marketing Information CenterData Source: USDA-AMS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC
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