2016 edi mini-mba new energy realities and leadership
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2016 Year of Organization for Change on Energy, Climate Change Agreement and the Sustainable
Development post-2015 Agenda
MiniMBA New Energy Realities & Our (Personal) Leadership
29th January 2016- Berlin
Adriaan Kamp
Adriaan Kamp
2009- - Energy For One World A practice on Global Change, Energy and
Leadership. Program Director Executive Energy
(transition) & Leadership Education 20 years Industry/Shell International :
Upstream ( 5 Countries and HQ).
Contents of Session
1. Year 2015: Global Change, Climate Change and the Sustainable Development Agenda post -2015
2. Paris COP21
3. Year 2016: Organising ourselves for Change
4. (Personal) Leadership
Prof. Jeffrey Sachs- Earth Institute: The Age of Sustainable Development
2/4/2016
Clickable Video Presentation
04.02.2016
Geopolitical shifts and re-alignments
• Economic and finance system change and fundamentals
• A new technological era: 4th Industrial Revolution.
• Global production systems & the rise of new (multinational) corporations
• Social Changes (network economies), and the quest for wealth justice
• Planetary boundaries/ Resource Scarcities
• Demographic change and migration/ Changing labour markets
Global Change
PwC 1400 CEO Global View
BP Energy Outlook 2035
2/4/2016
Linear (logarithmic) relation between Energy Consumption and GDP
2/4/2016 Source: Jeffrey Sachs- Earth Institute, 2014
11
2014 2030-2050
7 Billion People
9 Billion People
90 trillion USD
economy
180-210 trillion
USD
225 million oil eq/day
500- 750 million
oil eq/day
400 ppm CO2 and Carbon Budget consumed for 2 degrees/ 21st century
??? ppm CO2 and Climate Change Effects
BRIC:
It’s our time. Let us grow our Economies and take care of
our people You’ll fix whatever you want to
fix!
The West:
“If you do as I have done it will be a mess.”
Let us all change- rapidly Let’s secure our nation,
people and planet
Emerging: Will there be enough for
us? Can i afford it?
Who will deliver it to me?
The poor: When will we see electricity and get
mobility?
Opec and GasPec: You need us!
We can deliver your needs! What is all that fuzz about
Availability and climate change?
G7 and the next 100 years
Pope Francis and his Encyclical – on Poverty and the Environment
UN Sustainable Development Goals
How are we going to live together and provide energy to all people of this world – reliably,
sustainably, affordable, and in harmony?
Can we build Sustainable Societies for all?
16
Contents of Session
1. Year 2015: Global Change, Climate Change and the Sustainable Development Agenda post -2015
2. Paris COP21
3. Year 2016: Organising ourselves for
Change
4. (Personal) Leadership
UN FCCC COP21 Paris Two weeks Global Conference and Actions
2/4/2016
UN FCCC COP21 Paris (2)
UN FCCC COP21 Paris (3)
Paris Agreement
Adaptation
capacity-building
climate finance
Compliance
intended nationally determined contributions (INDC)
loss and damage
Mitigation
national reporting
Paris Outcome
REDD/REDD+
Technology
technology mechanism
UN FCCC COP21 Paris (3)
Paris Agreement
UN FCCC COP21 Paris (3) COP 21 Conclusion
2/1/2012 Energy For One World- All Rights Reserved
Contents of Session
1. Year 2015: Global Change, Climate Change and the Sustainable Development Agenda post -2015
2. COP21
3. Year 2016: Organizing ourselves for Change
4. (Personal) Leadership
Year 2016 Agenda
How can we organize ourselves to support and achieve these
Three (3) Objectives?
1. Support the UN Sustainable Development Goals
2. Implement the Paris Agreement
3. Provide Energy to our Societies
UN Regional Blocks
Countries Cities
Communities Companies and Institutes Co-alitions of the Willing
Old vs New Clickable Presentations
Vs 250 Bn USD investment
AND WHERE IT ALL MATTERS..
Sustainable Community Building
The Rise of a new middle-class ( 3 Billion) – in MegaCities and more people live in Greater Tokyo (35m) than in all of Canada
The top 10 cities by population:
1. Tokyo, (34 million)
2. Seoul (24.4 million)
3. Guangzhou (24.2 million)
4. Mexico City (23.4 million)
5. Delhi (23.2 million)
6. Mumbai (22.8 million)
7. New York (22.2 million)
8. Sao Paolo (20.9 million)
9. Manila (19.6 million)
10. Shanghai (19.4 million)
All above fit comfortably into the list
Of Top-50 nations by population
New Possibility Thinking (1) Mission Innovation
New Possibility Thinking (3) Largest Solar Farm (First Solar)
2 4 8
16 32 64 128 256 512 1024
2 yr 4yr 6yr 8 yr 10 yr 12 yr 14 yr 16 yr 18yr 20 yr
5 yr 10 yr 15 yr 20 yr 25 yr 30 yr 35 yr 40 yr 45 yr 50 yr
3500 hectares 160,000 homes 1,5 Bn USD 550 MW 8 million panels
New Possibility Thinking (4) Largest Offshore Wind Farm’s
4
2 4 8
16 32 64 128 256 512 1024
2 yr 4yr 6yr 8 yr 10 yr 12 yr 14 yr 16 yr 18yr 20 yr
5 yr 10 yr 15 yr 20 yr 25 yr 30 yr 35 yr 40 yr 45 yr 50 yr
An offshore area of 100km2 175 wind turbines Two offshore substations Nearly 450km of offshore cabling One onshore substation 630MW of electricity Enough power for nearly half a million homes
New Possibility Thinking (5): New distributed utility
Largest Ore Wind Farm’s
New Possibility Thinking (6) Solar City- A New Value Proposition
New Possibility Thinking (7) Car-manufacturer, Carlos Ghosn
Electric Vehicles sales are in direct correlation with the number and amount of charging stations installed in a city, region or nation.
It's a public-private
partnership. It's a matter of trust. It's a matter of convenience. But it surely the way to go into our Future.
(Carlos doesnot believe in fuel-celled LPV's. He is truly committed to the electrification of self-driving and navigating new car concepts)
New Possibility Thinking(8) Smart Cities
The vision of “Smart Cities” is the urban center of the future, made safe, secure environmentally green, and efficient because all structures - whether for power, water, transportation, etc. are designed, constructed, and maintained making use of advanced, integrated materials, sensors, electronics, and networks which are interfaced with computerized systems comprised of databases, tracking, and decision-making algorithms. - U.S. Dept. of Energy, “The Vision of a Smart City”, 2000
Examples of New, Smart or Sustainable Cities: • C40 – Vancouver, Oslo, New York, etc. • Masdar, Abu Dhabi, • New Songho City, South Korea, • Gujarat International Finance Tec-City, India • King Abdullah + Economic CitIES, Saudi Arabia • e.g. China Tianjin Development • •PM Modi’s 100 smart cities
•King Abdullah Economic City, Saudi Arabia
New Possibility Thinking (9) Better Architecture- Zero, Zero-Plus and more
2/4/2016
New Possibility Thinking (11) Energy Project Finance
New Possibility Thinking (12) Finance, Banks and Insurers
World Power Sector
(electricity only- ~30% world energy)- IEA, June 2015
51
From WEF/ Accenture: The energy architecture is an integrated physical system of energy sources, carriers and demand sectors
shaped by government, industry and civil society.
The energy architecture on location is a reflection of the socio-political, economic, ecological and business philosophies,
leadership and interests exercised on location.
The energy architecture in a country, region or global community is (ideally) to serve (the rise of, establishment of) thriving sustainable societies- making energy available, affordable and sustainable to all: balancing economic
interests with that of society and nature. Here and there. Now and in the future.
52
Energy Architecture
Re-inventing Strategies/Relationships: “X-Factor of Integration, Transition
and Transformation”
Renewables
Energy
Efficiency
Product Re-designs
Energy Architectures
Re-designs
Fossil
1 2
3
4
5
Building New Bridges on Energy & Sustainability
Focus – Impact- Meaning- Results
Levels of Maturity of Change Integration- Transition- Transformation
• Level 1
• Level 2
• Level 3
• Level 4
• Change and No Change. Resistance to Change. Policy, Administrative and Derivative Change (CO2 tax, ETS, Accounting). Coal vs. Gas. Continued backroom lobbying
• Full Integration of Renewables (clean-tech, energy conservations, smartness, etc.) in the Energy Architecture - but not with a system change. Retained regulations, ownership , revenue, tax and capital control structures
• Transition to a New Energy Architecture and Newly shared socio-economic and corporate business models- also in international trade
• Transformation of Economies and Societies. Eco-modernity and New human consciousness
“Every Energy Company and Every Energy Architecture in this world can be improved
upon in order to raise the availability, affordability and sustainability of energy to
all”.- Adriaan Kamp, 2015
59
Contents of Session
1. Year 2015: Global Change, Climate Change and the Sustainable Development Agenda post -2015
2. Paris COP21
3. Year 2016: Organising ourselves for Change
4. (Personal) Leadership
One World. Many Needs. Many Views
Eco-
Conscious
Moderated Consumerism
Limits to Growth
Cradle-to-Cradle, Bio-Mimicry
Zero emissions
Nature First
Networked
Society
Away with traditional country and/or
corporate borders : City-Hubs.
Horizontal, cross-border
collaborations
Cultural awareness and tolerance
A new world of sharing and
Power to the People
Expansion of wealth, ownership and new growth
Continued Consumerism and Hedonistic life-styles.
Short-termism, Schumpeter, Ayn Rand, Resilience
A world of larger inequalities and divisions:
Rich and poor. Have’s and Have Not’s
Money First
Shared
Capitalis
m
A world of Power , Principles and
Politics
Polarisation between Beliefs and/or
Power Blocks
The Geo-politics of Emotions
Darwin’s Survival of the Fittest
Power to the Strongest,
First
Darwin
Techno
Modernity
The world of Prof. Michio Kaku and
Kurz Weill Singularity
Game-changers and Disruptive
Innovations
A world of Smart Cities, New Surprises ,
Exponential Growth and Abundance
The Rule of Science &
Technology
Conscious Capitalism
The rise of new (global and business)
leadership: Gandhi’s and Mandela’s
Neuroscience , psychology and spirituality
Gaia, Oneness and Global Mind-set.
Transformative
leadership
Conscious
Humanity
“In Leadership- we are all students for life”
Energy For One World- 2012, All Rights Reserved
Leadership Levels
• Managing Yourself
• Managing Others
• Managing complex change &
• Managing multi-stakeholders
MANAGING YOURSELF
Energy For One World- 2012, All Rights Reserved
“Only good can come from good”
Energy For One World- 2012, All Rights Reserved
How much do you know about (your) self?
•
Energy For One World- 2012, All Rights Reserved
What happy people know
Energy For One World- 2012, All Rights Reserved
Dimensions in your Life & LifePlan : Giving meaning and purpose in your life
• Personal
• Family
• Social & Community
• Education
• Work Life (career)
• Financial
• Physical (sport)
• Interests & Hobbies
• Spiritual, etc.
Energy For One World- 2012, All Rights Reserved
Conquering the self
Energy For One World- 2012, All Rights Reserved
MANAGING OTHERS
Energy For One World- 2012, All Rights Reserved
“Manage others as you would like to be managed yourself”
(golden rule)
Energy For One World- 2012, All Rights Reserved
Organizing people
2/4/2016
Leadership and Vision: Opportunity Framing and Decision Based Delivery
•The possibility for Value Creation is largest in the Early Stages of any opportunity
How good is your
Opportunity
Framing ?
Energy For One World- 2012, All Rights Reserved
Ram Charan- Execute
Energy For One World- 2012, All Rights Reserved
The art of Entrepreneurs & The art of Execution
Entrepreneurs are in essence Opportunity Seekers and Realizers.
Executors (Managers) are the people who can organize things. They are inspired to lead people in performance and serve and align stakeholders.
•
Good is the enemy of Great
From Good to Great
Energy For One World- 2012, All Rights Reserved
Here’s the essence of the gospel of Greenleaf. First and foremost, truly great managers want to serve the people they lead. They do this by supporting them rather than dictating to them, and by assigning top priority to employee well-being. Deceptively simple and deeply profound.
Energy For One World- 2012, All Rights Reserved
Servant Leadership : a simple but o-so-powerful idea
Turning you 180 degrees and making you available for growth
MANAGING COMPLEX CHANGE/ MULTI-STAKEHOLDERS
Energy For One World- 2012, All Rights Reserved
Energy For One World- 2012, All Rights Reserved
“Resistance to change falls when the benefits are clear”
A corporate change and stakeholder plan: Planned change management
BCIM
Workstreams1. Direction Setting 2. Design & Plan 3. Mobilisation 4. Delivery 5. Transition
6. Consolidation &
Improvement7. Close
D. Align the Organisation
A. Guide Change &
Mitigate Risk
B. Mobilise Leaders
C. Engage &
Communicate w ith
Stakeholders
E. Prepare the Workforce
Chenge Program Charter 1
Define Success Measures
Global Approach to Implementation
Change Health Tracker
Enlist Expert Assistance (where required) to Execute
Global Training Strategy Assess Training Effectiveness
Develop Support Materials
Adjust Procedure Manuals
Define Adjustments to Structure, People, Process,
Culture & Leadership
On-board Team Members
Estimate Resources Required
Sponsor Analysis & Engagement Plan
Agree Sponsor Roles & Responsibilities & Monitor Performance
Leadership Alignment
Stakeholder Analysis & Engagement
Communications Plan
Execute Engagement & Comms (and Assess Effectiveness)
Org Capability Diagnostic
Change Impact Assessment
Can We Change?
Ernest Gundling...Understanding Cultures and Relationships. The way it works
Energy For One World- 2012, All Rights Reserved
Core Values
Cultural Dimensions
Global People Skills CONSCIOUS
UNCONSCIOUS
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