21st century electorate presentation--ndn version century...3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970...

The American Electorate of the 21st Century

The American Electorate of the 21st Century

Morley Winograd and Michael D. HaisNDN Fellows and Co-authors of “Millennial Makeover”

Morley Winograd and Michael D. HaisNDN Fellows and Co-authors of “Millennial Makeover”

New American Demographics

America Is a Dynamic and Changing Nation

The New America:

• Is about to be shaped by the Millennial Generation, the largest and most

diverse generation in U.S. history

• Is more ethnically diverse

• Is more Southern and Western

• Is better educated

• Has a smaller manual labor force,

especially among white population

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995

Mill

ion

s o

f B

irth

s

BOOMER

S

GEN-XERS MILLENNIALS

There are now about 17 million more Millennials alive than Baby Boomers and 27 million more Millennials as there are members of Generation X.

Total U.S. Births, in Millions, 1950 to 1998

Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census (2000)

Millennials Will Increasingly Dominate the ElectorateOver the Next Decade

41%

17%

51%

20%

61%

24%

80%

30%

99%

36%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2008 2010 2012 2016 2020

Percentage of Millennials Eligible to Vote Millennial Contribution to Voting Age Population

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2006

White - Non-Hispanic Minority

The Rise of a Multi-racial America

Percentage of the U.S. Population that is White drops by 25%

Source: US Census Bureau

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

White, Non-Hispanic Minority

On Track to Becoming Majority Minority

Source: U.S. Census, March, 2004; Pew Research Center, 2/11/08

The U.S. Will be 47% White by 2050

Hispanic Population Boom

By 2050, Hispanics will be more than ¼ of the US population

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Total Population Hispanic Population

Source: US Census Bureau and Pew Hispanic Center, 2/11/08

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1850 1900 1950 2000

Northeast Midwest South West

Americans Moving South and West

100 Largest Cities Shift from Northeast to South and West

Source: Census.gov

The Dream of Mass Education is a Reality

in 21st Century America

Source: US Census Bureau

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

1940

1960

1980

2000

2008

Less Than CompleteHigh School

High School Graduates

Some College

College Graduates

Adults 25+

The Labor Force Transformed

Source: US Census Bureau

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40%

Professional

Managerial

Clerical/Sales

Manual

Farmers/Other

1940

2006

FDR’s Dominant Voter CoalitionFDR’s Dominant Voter Coalition

• Southern Whites

• White workers

• Central, Eastern, and Southern European immigrants and their children

• African-Americans in America’s big cities

The Democratic New Deal Coalition Dominated American Politics in the Mid-20th Century

The Democratic New Deal Coalition Dominated American Politics in the Mid-20th Century

• Won the presidency in 7 of 9 elections, 1932-1964

• Controlled Congress in 16 of 18 Congresses, 1932-1966

• Transformed economic policy from laissez-faire to governmental activism

• Transformed foreign policy from isolationism to interventionism

• Moved America from segregation toward racial equality

Nixon’s Republican Southern Strategy Cracks the New Deal Coalition

Nixon’s Republican Southern Strategy Cracks the New Deal Coalition

• Won the presidency in 7 of 10 elections, 1968-2004• Won the presidency in 7 of 10 elections, 1968-2004

• Controlled Congress consistently from 1995-2007• Controlled Congress consistently from 1995-2007

• Halted or rolled back New Deal and Great Society economic programs• Halted or rolled back New Deal and Great Society economic programs

• Campaigned on divisive social and racial issues• Campaigned on divisive social and racial issues

The White South Leaves the Democratic CoalitionPartisanship of Southern White Presidential Popular Vote

Data sources: 1932 & 1952: Tabulated popular vote totals1997-2008: New York Times exit polls

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

1932 1952 1976 1980 1988 1996 2000 2004 2008

Democratic Republican Independent

The Disappearing White Working ClassOccupation of White Voters by Decade

Data source: NES Cumulative File

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

1952-1960 1962-1970 1972-1980 1982-1990 1992-2000 2002-2008

Manual Clerical/Sales Professional/Managerial

White Workers Leave the Democratic CoalitionOccupation of White Democratic Voters by Decade

Data source: NES Cumulative File

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

1952-1960 1962-1970 1972-1980 1982-1990 1992-2000 2002-2008

Manual Clerical/Sales Professional/Managerial

Millennial Strategy Program®

Frank N. Magid Associates is widely recognized as the preeminent

generational insights organization

Frank N. Magid Associates is widely recognized as the preeminent

generational insights organization

� Over the past six years, the Millennial

Strategy Program® has conducted over

60,000 online interviews, hundreds of in-

home and other ethnographic sessions,

and led numerous qualitative group

discussions

� Formed in 2005, The Millennial Strategy Program® is

grounded in Magid’s 50 years of primary research

expertise and illuminated with deep knowledge of social,

cultural, and political events. Through extensive focus on

the role of Baby Boomers, Gen Xers, and Millennials, the

firm has unparalleled insight into the ways generational

movements define worldwide culture, business success,

and influence political and social events.

� We look at generations as much more than age-groups,

which is why we study historical events and use multiple

methodologies and research techniques

Millennial Clients

� ABC-Disney Television Group� ABC Family� Anheuser-Busch� AOL� Bonneville International� Clear Channel Communications� Comcast Cable� Conde Nast� Cox Enterprises� Current TV� DirecTV� Dispatch Group� Dow Jones Company� Evening Post Publishing� General Growth Properties� Hearst Corporation� Lee Enterprises� MediaFlo� Media General � Meredith Corporation� NBC� New York Times� News Corp� Paramount Television� Saban Capital� Sony Pictures Television� Sony PlayStation/SCEA� Tribune Interactive� Warner Bros Television� Washington Mutual

Michael Hais

•Extensive media, entertainment, and political experience.

•Retired VP-Entertainment Research, 22 years with

Frank N. Magid Associates, world’s most influential media research firm.

•Designed and analyzed 1200+ quantitative surveys and 2000+

qualitative projects at Magid.

•Democratic pollster in Michigan, 1970s and 1980s.

•Ph.D. political science, dissertation on party coalitions and realignment.

•Co-authored, with Morley Winograd, Millennial Makeover, New York

Times 2008 top-ten book.

An Emerging New and Potentially Dominant21st Century Democratic Coalition

•Young voters

•African-Americans

•Hispanics

•Women

•The Northeast and West

•Highly educated Americans

Young Voters Increasingly Democratic Since 1980sPartisanship of 18-29 Presidential Vote

•Young voters were Baby Boomers (born 1946-1964) in 1976 and 1980.

•The first members of Generation X (born 1965-1981) voted in 1984.

•The first Millennials (born 1982-2003) voted in 2000.

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008

Democrat Republican Independent

Data source: New York Times exit polls

African-Americans and Hispanics: Democrats for Decades

Data source: New York Times exit polls

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008

African-American Hispanic

Democratic Percentage of African-American and Hispanic Presidential Vote

Women Increasingly Democratic Since 1980sPartisanship of Female Presidential Vote

Data source: New York Times exit polls

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008

Democrat Republican Independent

Since 1980 a "gender gap," women averaged 8% more Democratic than men.

Northeast and West Increasingly Democratic Since 1980s

Data source: New York Times exit polls

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008

Northeast West

Democratic Percentage of Northeast and West Presidential Vote

College Graduates and Postgraduates Increasingly Democratic Since 1980s

Data source: New York Times exit polls

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008

College graduates Postgraduates

Democratic Percentage of College Graduate And Postgraduate Presidential Vote

A New Democratic Party Majority

* Partisans and leaners combined

Data source: Pew Survey Research Center

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

55%

19911992

19931994

19951996

19971998

19992000

20012002

20032004

20052006

20072008

2009

Democrats Republicans

National Party ID*

The 21st Century Democratic Coalition Is Majority Female

Source: Frank N. Magid Associates, February 2010

55%

45%

44%

56%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Democratic Identifiers/Leaners Republican Identifiers/Leaners

Female Male

The 21st Century Democratic Coalition Is Younger

Source: Frank N. Magid Associates, February 2010

•A majority of Democrats are from the two youngest generations•Six in ten Republicans are from the two oldest generations

21%

32%

32%

15%

14%

26%

35%

25%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Democratic Identifiers/Leaners Republican Identifiers/Leaners

Millennial Generation Generation X Baby Boomer Generation Silent Generation

68%

14%

11%

5%

1%

89%

2%6%

3%1%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Democratic

Identifiers/Leaners

Republican

Identifiers/Leaners

White African-American Hispanic Asian Other

The 21st Century Democratic Coalition Is More Ethnically Diverse

Source: Frank N. Magid Associates, February 2010

The 21st Century Democratic Coalition Skews to the Northeast and West

Source: Frank N. Magid Associates, February 2010

30%

23%

27%

20%

40%

22%

23%

15%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Democratic

Identifiers/Leaners

Republican

Identifiers/Leaners

South Midwest West Northeast

Both Male and Female Millennials Identify as Democrats

Source: Frank N. Magid Associates, February 2010

50%

22%

28%

55%

22%

21%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Male Millennials Female Millennials

Democratic Identifiers/Leaners Independents

Republican Identifiers/Leaners

Millennial Democratic Loyalties Cross Ethnic Lines

Source: Frank N. Magid Associates, February 2010

47%

22%

32%

75%

16%

9%

66%

19%

15%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

White Millennials African-American

Millennials

Hispanic Millennials

Democratic Identifiers/Leaners Independents Republican Identifiers/Leaners

New AttitudesNew Attitudes

America is no Longer a “Center-Right” Nation

• Americans favor activist government

• Americans want government to promote economic equality

• Americans favor multilateralism in foreign policy

Conventional Wisdom to the Contrary, Most Americans Continue to Support Activist Government

* 2009 sample Millennial, Gen-X, and Boomer Generations only. 2010 percentage based on those generations only.Source: Frank N. Magid Associates, February 2010

15%

17%

54%

58%

30%

26%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

Not sure

Favor government

actively trying to

solve problems

Favor government

staying out of

society & economy

2009*

2010*

The New 21st Century Democratic Coalition Favors Activist Government

Source: Frank N. Magid Associates, February 2010

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Total Mention Female Millennial Gen-X African-American Hispanic

Favor government actively trying to solve problems

Favor government staying out of society & economy

Not sure

Conventional Wisdom to the Contrary, Most Americans Continue to Support Policies Promoting Economic Equality

* 2009 sample Millennial, Gen-X, and Boomer Generations only. 2010 percentage based on those generations only.Source: Frank N. Magid Associates, February 2010

18%

17%

32%

30%

50%

53%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

Not sure

Let each person get

along on their own even if

some have more

Ensure that all Americans

have basic standard of

living and income even if

it increases spending

2009*

2010*

The New 21st Century Democratic Coalition Favors Economic Equality

Source: Frank N. Magid Associates, February 2010

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Total Mention Female Millennial Gen-X African-

American

Hispanic

Ensure that all have basic standard of living and income even if increases spending

Let each person get along on their own even if some have more

Not sure

Most Americans Continue to Support Multilateralism in Foreign Policy

* 2009 sample Millennial, Gen-X, and Boomer Generations only. 2010 percentage based on those generations only.

Source: Frank N. Magid Associates, February 2010

16%

16%

31%

29%

53%

55%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

Not sure

Best way to protect

national security is by

relying on military

strength

Best way to protect

national security is

through building strong

alliances with other

nations

2009*

2010*

The New 21st Century Democratic Coalition Favors Multilateralism in Foreign Policy

Source: Frank N. Magid Associates, February 2010

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Total Mention Female Millennial Gen-X African-

American

Hispanic

Best way to protect national security is through building strong alliances with other nations

Best way to protect national security is by relying on military strength

Not sure

New Mobilization StrategiesNew Mobilization Strategies

Contrary to Conventional Wisdom the Democrats Can Win in 2010… If They Mobilize the New 21st Century Coalition

Source: Frank N. Magid Associates, February 2010

2010 Congressional Vote Intention

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Total Mention Female Millennial Gen-X African-

American

Hispanic

Democratic Candidate Republican Candidate Other candidate Undecided

Mobilization Issues: Getting the Coalition Registered

Source: Frank N. Magid Associates, February 2010

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

Total Mention Female Millennial Gen-X African-

American

Hispanic

Registered to Vote Moved since 2008

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Total Mention Female Millennial Gen-X African-

American

Hispanic

Absolutely certain will vote in 2010 Very important which party wins in 2010

Mobilization Issues: Getting the Coalition Inspired and to the Polls

Source: Frank N. Magid Associates, February 2010

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

2008 General Election Contribution to

Electorate

2010 U.S. Senate Special Election

Contribution to Electorate

18-29 year olds 30-44 year olds Minorities

Democratic Identifiers Self-perceived liberals

Massachusetts: A Case Study in Losing by Not Using the New Coalition

Data sources: 2008—CNN Election Day exit poll

2010—PPP Final pre-election poll, January 16-17, 2010

•Majorities of all groups, except 30-44s, voted Democratic in both 2008 and 2010