2nd colombian conference at · 26/04/2013 · la felisa buenaventura pto berrio santa marta buga...

April 26, 2013 2nd Colombian Conference at

Harvard/MIT – Panel 2 2

¡Buenas Tardes!

• WELCOME and thank you for joining us!

• Andrés Felipe Archila

– President, Colombian Association of MIT

colombianos@mit.edu

• We are delighted to receive emails!

The Future of Transportation Infrastructure in

Colombia: Envisioning a National

Transportation System

• Ralph Gakenheimer, MIT

• 1st session

– Lina María Castaño, National Planning Department of Colombia (DNP)

– Richard de Neufville, MIT

• Intermission – Coffee Break

• 2nd session

– Néstor Roa, Inter-American Development Bank (IADB)

– Juan Pablo Bocarejo, Universidad de los Andes

– Christopher Zegras, MIT

• Discussion Q&A session with all panelists

PANEL 2:

RALPH GAKENHEIMER

(MODERATOR)

Professor of Urban Planning, Emeritus, MIT

Session 1

LINA MARÍA CASTAÑO

Deputy Director, Social Sector, National Planning Department of

Colombia (DNP)

NATIONAL PROGRAM OF

URBAN TRANSPORT IN

COLOMBIA

Contents

- National Framework

– Financial Structure

– Opportunities

– Challenges

National Framework

Access to modern infrastructure and

equal opportunities remain as a

challenge for Colombia

1 = extremely underdeveloped; 7 = extensive and efficient by international standards

0 2 4 6

Venezuela

Colombia

Brasil

Argentina

Uruguay

Ecuador

Mexico

0 1 2 3

Uruguay

Venezuela

Colombia

Argentina

Brasil

Ecuador

Mexico

0 2 4 6

Venezuela

Brasil

Colombia

Argentina

Ecuador

Mexico

Uruguay

Quiality of overall infrastructure Quality of roads

Quality of railroad infrastructure Quality of port infrastructure

Source: World Economic Forum. Global Competitiveness Report 2011 - 2012

0 2 4 6

Venezuela

Argentina

Colombia

Brasil

Ecuador

Uruguay

Mexico

National Framework for Urban Transport

National Development Plan 2010 - 2014

Transport Infrastructure Housing and Kindly Cities

Guidelines and Strategic Actions

Policy and

regulation of the

Transport Services

Competitive

Infrastructure and

Regional Integration

Improvement of Accessibility

and intermodal conditions

Promotion of alternative

mechanisms of

infrastructure funding

Urban Transport and

Mobility

Articulation and Enchainment with other sectors

Urban Transport and Mobility

Policy

Integrated Mass

Transport System

Strategic Public

Transport Systems

Strategy in Small

Sizes Cities

Mobility

Master Plan

National Framework for Urban Transport

National Development Plan 2010 - 2014

•Population Over

600.000 Inhabitants

•Population between

250.000 y 600.000

Inhabitants

•Population under

250.000 Inhabitants

•Strategy to improve

transport service

bring in efficiency

and high quality

service

• Multimodal

Regional Strategy • Territorial Planning • Territorial Planning

EIGHT(8)

Mobility Master Plan In preparation: (3) Cartagena, Montería y Fusagasugá

EIGHT (8) SITM Population Over 600.000 Inhabitants

•In preparation: (1) Cúcuta

TWELVE (12) SETP Population between 250.000 y 600.000 Inhabitants

•In preparation : (5) Buenaventura, Neiva, Villavicencio,

Ibagué y Manizales

EIGHT (8)

Strategy in small sizes cities Population under 250.000 Inhabitants

(Tunja, Barrancabermeja, Quibdó, Ocaña, Riohacha,

Florencia, Yopal y Fusagasugá)

SEVEN (7) SATB (Leticia, Arauca, Saravena, Maicao, Ipiales,

San Miguel y Puerto Carreño)

FOUR (4) SITP (Bogotá, Pereira, Barranquilla y Bucaramanga)

FOUR(4) SITR (Caribe, Eje Cafetero, Cundinamarca y Antioquia)

Urban Mobility Projects Summary

New Roads Concessions Contracts

VILLAVICENCIO

PEREIRA

SOGAMOSO

PALO DE LETRAS CAUCASIA

MONTERIA

SINCELEJO

CARMEN DE

BOLIVAR

VALLEDUPAR

BARRANQUILLA

CARTAGENA

SANTA MARTA

RIOHACHA

PARAGUACHON

SAN ROQUE

NECOCLÍ

ZIPAQUIRA

Pamplona

Simití

San Marcos

SAN PELAYO

GIRARDOT

CUCUTA

RUMICHACA

VILLAVICENCIO

PUERTO GAITAN

POPAYAN

SOGAMOSO

B/MANGA

CHACHAGÛÍ

ESPINAL

ARMENIA

IBAGUE

PTO. SALGAR

Cáqueza

CALERA

BUENAVENTURA

STDER. QUILICHAO

PTO CARRENO

ARAUCA

EL SECRETO

CARTAGO

Planeta Rica

La Yé

Toluviejo

Cruz del Viso Carreto

Ponedera

La Paz

San Juan Buenavista

Cuestecitas

Barbosa

Aguaclara Ocaña

MANIZALES VILLET

MEDELLIN

BOGOTA

BARRANCAB. REMEDIOS

Pto. Arimena

El Tigre

Pto. Berrío Santa fé de Ant.

Bolombolo

La Manuela

Camilo C

Tunel de

Occidente

Aguachica

Granada

CENTER- SOUTH

FONADE

SOUTH WEST-

FONADE

CENTER WEST

FONADE

CARIBBEAN

FONADE

EAST RANGEFONDO ADAPTACION

ROADS TO PROSPERITY

CONCESSIONS

Estimated Kilometers 8.170

Total Estimated Investment

(billions of dollars / Dec 2011)

Current Concessions

New Concessions

Ports concessions

BUENAVENTURA

CARTAGENA

GUAJIRA

SANTA MARTA

BARRANQUILLA

TOLU COVEÑAS

TUMACO

SAN ANDRES

Dredging of second

access canal 19 meters.

Cartagena

2013- I

Dredging 16 meters. Buenaventura

2013-I

Source: Infrastructure National Agency - Structuring Vice-presidency

BARRANQUILLA

BARRANQUILLA´s AIRPORT

2013-II

ARMENIA

CARTAGO

POPAYÁN

ARMENIA, CARTAGO, NEIVA

AND POPAYÁN AIRPORTS

2013-II

Airports Concessions

Railroad Concessions

BOGOTÁ

Belencito

Zipaquirá La Dorada

Cabañas

La Vizcaína

Chiriguaná

Dibulla

Sta Sofía

La Tebaida

Zarzal

La Felisa

Buenaventura

Pto Berrio

Santa Marta

Buga Buenos

Granada

Ciénaga

Potosí

La Mata

Cúcuta

ESTIMATED KILOMETERS 3.450

ESTIMATED INVESTMENT

(BILLIONS US$ / DEC 2011) 6.48

Actual Concessions

Infraestructure Improvements

New Projects

Fluvial Projects

Magdalena´s River navigation

recovery Object

Description

Current State

Forecasted date for opening of bid process:

II Trimester of 2013

To recover Magdalena´s River navigation using PPP

schemes

•Between Puerto Salgar / La Dorada - Bocas de Ceniza.

• Term: 10 years

•Works for river canalization

• OyM activities to guarantee : 4,5 foots on Puerto

Salgar/Puerto Berrío stage; 6,0 foots on Puerto

Berrío/Barrancabermeja stage; 7 foots on

Barrancabermeja/Puente Laureano Gómez stage; and

37,5 foots until Bocas de Ceniza.

• Project will demand a total investment of 2.09 billions of

pesos (US$1,15 millions).

On Pre-qualification

Source: Cormagdalena

On feasibility studies

Estimated Investment: US$2.500 Millions

Estimated length: 20,3 km

First line prioritization

Infrastructure and implementation system design

Estimated investment: US$2.100 Millions

Estimated length: 31,1 km

Bogota and their surroundings are planning to develop a

commuting train system, integrating the city with near

towns.

On feasibility studies, preliminary information:

Length: 81.2 Km.

Phase I y II: Technical structuring by ConCol. “Empresa

Férrea Regional” Studies have been in actualization

process 2011-2012. Process opening: To be defined

Commuting Train

Bogotá Subway System

Urban mobility projects for the Bogota

– Cundinamarca´s region

CONPES document approved – 3677 (19/07/2010)

Financial Structure

Legal and Regulatory Framework -

Public Initiative PPP project -

Flowchart

Conceptual Idea of the Project

Feasibility Studies

Technical, Financial and Legal Structuring

Request of fiscal endorsement and approval of annual budget commitments

Opening of the PPP bidding process

Public Contract

Assessment of social and economic issues

Risk analysis – MHCP Assessment of PPP option

Requires Public $

Does not require Public $

Priorization

Opening of the bidding process

Financial reviewed by Public development

Banks – Art 27 / 1508 First review MHCP -

then NPD

Central government investment First is reviewed by

MHCP – then respective planning department Without Central

Government Investment

Opportunities

Rehabilitation and Renewal of Historic Centers

Generation of New Centralities

Improve the Articulation between Mobility Master Plans and Local Master

Integration of Populations needs and land uses

Challenges

Technical Institutional Strengthening

Urban and Regional Integration through the implementation of the

mobility strategies

Challenges

Implementation of Intelligent Transportation Systems

Transportation Demand Management

Implementation of strategies of mobility in border cities

Gracias

www.dnp.gov.co

PBX: 3815000

RICHARD DE NEUFVILLE

Professor of Civil and Environmental Engineering and of

Engineering Systems, MIT

Using Flexibility to Increase Value

in Transportation Systems Planning

MIT Professor Richard de Neufville

Engineering Systems + Civil and Environmental Engineering

Author: Flexibility in Engineering Design MIT Press, 2011

with Prof. Stefan Scholtes, University of Cambridge UK

(about $30; ebook also available)

This is the

MIT Press

Available

Online

Theme for Flexibility

Paradigm change in project evaluation, choice • From: standard Net Present Values (VPN),

ignoring risks (as done by World Bank) • To: recognizing actual uncertainties and

planning for adaptation to real situations!

Flexibility => significant increase in value

• Using a win-win approach

• Mitigates risk (downside) -- a win

• Opens opportunities (upside) – more win

Outline of Presentation

1. Discussion of Standard Evaluation

Procedure for Transportation projects,

Engineering Systems in general

2. Flaw of Averages

3. Concept of Alternative Paradigm

4. Example Application in Bogota

Standard Evaluation Procedure

for Transportation projects,

Engineering Systems in general

Standard Evaluation Procedure

1. Make a forecast

2. Evaluate alternatives using forecast,

finding a unique cash flow

3. Calculate Net Present Value (VPN)

or equivalent such as IRR

HOWEVER:

• Future is Uncertain, as are outcomes

THEREFORE:

• Above calculations are misleading!

The Flaw of Averages

Flaw of Averages

Named by Sam Savage (“Flaw of Averages,

Wiley, New York, 2009)

It is a pun. It integrates two concepts:

• A mistake => a “flaw”

• The concept of the “law of averages”, that

that things balance out “on average”

• Flaw consists of assuming that evaluation

based on “average” or “most likely”

conditions give correct answers NOT SO!

In Words

• Average of all the possible outcomes

associated with uncertain parameters,

• does not equal (except if system linear)

• the value obtained from using the

average value of the parameters

Practical Consequences

• Unless you work with distribution, your

evaluation gives wrong result –

• and wrong results lead to wrong ranking

and choice of design

• design from a realistic description differs – often

greatly – from design from average description

• This is because gains when things do well, do

not balance losses when things do not

(sometimes they’re more, sometimes less)

Concept

Alternative Paradigm

New, Flexible Approach to Design

• Recognizes Uncertainty

• Analyses Possible Outcomes of Designs

• Chooses Flexible Designs to

– Reduce, eliminate downside risks (in general,

less ambitious initial projects – less to lose)

– Maximize Upside opportunities (that can

expand or change function, when, if, and how

seems desirable given future circumstances)

Great Increases in Expected Value Routine!

Great increase in Expected Value

• systems with flexibility to adapt to new conditions can greatly increase expected value.

• With flexibility we can

– avoid future downside risks (by building smaller with confidence that can expand as needed)

– profit from new opportunities by appropriate actions

• Reduce initial capital expenditure (CAPEX). – Lower initial CAPEX because less complex at start

– Lower Present Values, because costs deferred many years (and maybe even avoided)

Higher returns, lower cost = A Great Formula

HCSC Building in Chicago

• In 2007-2009, 3000 people were coming to work

in the 30-story HCSC building in Chicago,

• … and a 27-story addition was being built right

on top of them!

• The structure was designed in 1990s with extra

steel, utilities, elevator shafts, etc. to permit

doubling of height.

• This flexibility was exploited a decade later

Here’s the Picture

Vertical Expansion of Health Care Service Corporation Building, Chicago.

Phase 1 (left) and Phase 2 (right) in center of image.

Source: Goettsch Partners, 2008 and Pearson and Wittels, 2008.

The Paradox

• 30-story building with capacity to expand – costs more than one without expansion capacity

– Yet saves money!

• Why is this?

• The fair comparison is between – 30-story expandable building and

– what HCSC would build otherwise to meet its long-term needs – such as a 40-story building

• Flexible design saves money 2 ways: – Lower initial Capital Expenditures (CAPEX)

– Deferral, possible avoidance, of expansion costs

Example Application:

Public Transport in Bogota

To BRT or HRT in Bogotá?

That is the Question

Application of Flexibility in Engineering Design

MIT Course ESD.71, December 2012

Andrés Felipe Archila, M.S.T. 2013

archila@mit.edu

Description, Background, and Motivation

• New transit corridor in Bogota, Colombia

• BRT or HRT for 35-km-long Avenida Boyacá

• Analysis of fixed and flexible alternatives

Andrés Archila - MIT

Technical Choice

¿El bus?

¿O el tren?

Usual Financial Analysis (as for World Bank)

Calculate NPV (=VPN) with no uncertainty

One design

Dominates

All others

[in this case,

Big buses]

Evaluation Recognizing Uncertainty

NPV (million $USD)

Evaluation Recognizing Uncertainty

Alternative

Choices now

Ambiguous

[Rail better when

traffic is high,

worse when

traffic is low.]

Evaluation including flexible alternative

NPV (million $USD)

Valuation including Flexible Design (start with 4 car trains, with stations for 6 cars)

HRT-FFlexible Alternative

provides Insurance

against downside

Summary

1. Standard Evaluation Procedure for

Transportation projects, Engineering

Systems in general, is FLAWED

2. It fails to recognize, deal with risks

3. Flexibility is New Alternative Paradigm

4. Helps planners deal proactively with risk:

Reduces exposure to downside;

Allows for dealing with upside

Discussion - Q&A

Coffee Break 15-20 min

Session 2 follows

NÉSTOR ROA

Chief, Transport Division, Inter-American Development Bank

(IADB)

The Transport Sector

and the IDB in

Latin America

Nestor Roa

Chief of the Transport Division

April 26th, 2013

Content

1. Latin America’s infrastructure needs

2. The Inter-American Development Bank (IDB)

3. IDB areas of intervention and support modalities

4. Infrastructure and Transport Sector in the IDB 4.1. Transport Sector priorities 4.2. Strategic Areas

4.3. Flagship Projects

5. Conclusions and Challenges

Content

Quality

Latin America

and the

Caribbean

Emerging Asia

Developed

economies

Index (1 – 7 scale)

Average

Transport

Railways

Electricity

Roads Air

transport

Index (1-7 scale)

Latin America and

the Caribbean

Emerging Asia

Developed

economies

Coverage

0 20 40 60 80 100

BarbadosUruguayJamaica

BahamasTrinidad y TobagoRep. Dominicana

VenezuelaMéxico

PanamáArgentina

GuatemalaSuriname

HaitíHonduras

El SalvadorCosta Rica

BeliceChile

EcuadorColombia

PerúNicaragua

BrasilParaguay

GuyanaBolivia

Percentage (%) of Paved Roads

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

ChileEl Salvador

PanamaTrinidad and Tobago

JamaicaGuatemala

UruguayHonduras

Dominican RepublicMexico

ColombiaArgentina

BrazilCosta Rica

EcuadorVenezuela

PeruNicaragua

BoliviaParaguay

Roads quality (1=underdeveloped, 7=extensive and efficient)

Road Quality

Source: Porter and Schwab (2008).

Source: IDB and WB

Coverage

Source: WB, 2013

Investment

Total Public Private

Private investments need to grow from about 1 percent of GDP to between 2.5 and 3 percent to close the infrastructure gap, which represents some 100,000 million dollars a year.

The “new” problem: Urbanization

• The “road bias” is changing… by demand

• LAC: the most urbanized region in the world (77% of pop.) -> 85% by 2030

Urban population (2000) Urban population

Content

4. Infrastructure and Transport Sector in the IDB 4.1. Transport sector Priorities 4.2. Strategic Areas

2. The Inter-American Development Bank

Founded in 1959, the IDB is the oldest and largest regional development bank.

48 members: 26 borrowing members and 22 non-borrowing members.

From 1961 to the end of 2011, the IDB has approved US$207 billion in loans and guarantees.

The IDB obtains its own financial resources from its 48 member countries, borrowings on the financial markets, and trust funds that it administers, and through cofinancing ventures.

The IDB’s debt rating is AAA.

Content

3. IDB Areas of Intervention

3. IDB Support modalities

• Investment Loans

• Policy Based Loans

• Emergency Loans

Public Sector Loans and Guarantees (with Sovereign Guarantee)

• Private Sector Loans

• Public sub-national entities qualified for NSG

Non-Sovereign Guaranteed Loans and Guarantees

Inter-American Investment Corporation

Multilateral Investment Fund

Technical Cooperation: technical studies & project preparation

KCPs (Knowledge & Capacity Building Products)

Content

4. 2012: IDB US$11.6 billion in approved loans

and guarantees.

Loans by topic. 1961-2012

1,215.50 1,342.90

2193.6

1,543.60

2009 2010 2011 2012

Transport operation approvals 2009-2012 (USD$ millions)

Typical Projects

4. Transport Sector

Road expansion /rehabilitation

Public transportation (BRTs, Subways)

Ports, airports

Typical Procurement Aspects Civil works (infrastructure construction, rehabilitation, tunneling, bridges ) Buses,

rolling stock, equipment Technical consulting services

4.1. Transport Sector -Priorities 2013

Increase road safety in the region

Promote sustainable transport

Develop Freight logistic operations

Promote the integration of regional transportation

Road Safety

Freight Logistics and Trade Facilitation

Regional Environment Sustainable Transport

4.2. Strategic areas in the Transport Sector

Flagship Projects

Support to the implementation of the National Road Safety Policy – Colombia (CO-L1111)

IDB Financing: US$ 10 million

Intervention:

Supporting the implementation of the Road Safety National Policy

Supporting the creation of the Road Safety National Observatory

Norte Grande Roads Infrastructure Program – Argentina

(AR-L1133)

IDB Financing: US$300 million

Intervention:

National Road Network (RVN) and access roads of the Provincial Road Network (RVP) in the Norte Grande region (RNG).

Engineering Works (1030km)

Road Safety

Institutional Strengthening

Strategic Public Transportation Systems (SPTS) –

Colombia (CO-L1091)

Estimated Cost: US$380,7 million

CTF Financing: US$20 million

Intervention:

Development of Strategic Public Transportation Systems in four towns (Pasto, Popayan, Armenia and Santa Marta)

Quito´s Metropolitan Urban Transport System– Ecuador

(EC-L1111)

Estimated Cost: US$1.400 million

Intervention:

Financing the construction of 22 km of track, 15 stations, rolling stock and equipment for the Metro de Quito.

San Francisco-Mocoa Alternate Road Construction Project

- Phase I – Colombia (CO-L1019)

Estimated Cost: US$150 million

Intervention:

Improvement and construction of a 47 km by-pass

Mario Covas Rodoanel Project - Northern Section– Brasil

(BR-L1296 )

Estimated Cost: US$3.015,23 million

IDB Financing: US$1.148,63 million

Intervention:

North Section of the Mario Covas Beltway of the City of Sao Paulo

Programs to Support the National Logistics Policy –

Colombia (CO-L1090, CO-L1109)

IDB Financing: US$300 million (CO-L1090)

US$15 million (CO-L1109)

Intervention:

- Support the development and implementation of the National Logistics Policy

Panama Canal Expansion Program – Panama (PN-L1032)

Estimated Cost: US$5.250 million

Intervention:

Construction of a third set of locks including lock complexes

Deepening of the entrances

Deepening and widening of the navigational channels

Raising Gatun Lake to its maximum operational level

Content

5. Conclusions & Challenges

Latin America needs to improve its transport infrastructure and direct its efforts towards integration

Improving the region’s infrastructure needs a stronger participation from both the public and private sector

Parallel and collaborative efforts from the public and private sectors are necessary in the following areas: Extension and maintenance

of road network

Performance of freight transport by road

Freight railways

Trade facilitation and border controls

Support for better logistics’ management in small and medium-size businesses

5. Conclusions & Challenges

Consistence and continuity in national policy formulation is key to enhance effective interventions

Multilaterals play an important role in adding value with knowledge sharing and project specific learned lessons

JUAN PABLO BOCAREJO

Associate Professor, Department of Civil and Environmental

Engineering, Universidad de los Andes

The Future of Transportation Infrastructure in Colombia

SUR Grupo de Estudios En Sostenibilidad Urbana y Regional

Juan Pablo Bocarejo, PhD Associate Professor

Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering

Infrastructure: The next generation

The infrastructure we need?

Environmental aspects

A good investment

Legal aspects

Engineering?

Key Aspects for Improvement (I)

• A network analysis

– Isolated projects

– Uncertain demand

– Functional vulnerability analysis

Key Aspects for Improvement (II)

Desconexión Total Ig = ∞

Desconexión Parcial

Scenario Impact ($COP / day) Link

1 Inf VILLAVICENCIO GRANADA

2 Inf VILLAVICENCIO PUERTO LOPEZ

3 Inf PUERTO GAITAN PUERTO LOPEZ

4 Inf PASTO IPIALES

5 Inf BUENAVENTURA BUGA

6 Inf ARAUCA TAME

7 $ 6,604,719,910 TULUA ZARZAL

8 $ 5,982,311,917 BUGA TULUA

9 $ 1,638,775,950 MEDELLIN RIOSUCIO

10 $ 1,338,384,332 MEDELLIN SANTA ROSA DE OSOS

11 $ 1,204,313,657 PUERTO BOYACÁ LA DORADA

12 $ 1,183,006,963 BOGOTA TUNJA

13 $ 999,101,987 BOGOTA IBAGUE

14 $ 978,678,816 CAUCASIA PLANETA RICA

15 $ 956,727,491 ARMENIA IBAGUE

16 $ 937,656,385 MEDELLIN PUERTO BOYACÁ

17 $ 823,159,379 BOGOTA LA DORADA

18 $ 791,224,728 NEIVA GARZON

19 $ 730,867,806 TUNJA DUITAMA

20 $ 730,335,411 CAUCASIA SANTA ROSA DE OSOS

21 $ 669,797,430 BUCARAMANGA BARRANCABERMEJA

22 $ 658,860,229 CUCUTA BUCARAMANGA

23 $ 575,830,125 ANSERMA RIOSUCIO

24 $ 528,623,427 ANSERMA CARTAGO

… … … …

Key Aspects for Improvement (III)

• Adequate design standards

– Level of service

– Design speeds

– Slopes and curves

Vía Bucaramanga- P. Chicamocha

Key Aspects for Improvement (IV)

• Road safety (3 E´s)

– Indicators and performance

– Incentives

– Standards

– Enforcement

Institutional challenges

• An homogeneous network?

• Who manages the network?

• Who enforces the network?

• Who provides maintenance?

• Information availability

• Available capacity to implement

investment 20 times higher than previous

Closing remarks

• Need to have a network approach

• Need to develop standards and performance objectives

• Need to introduce vulnerability and redundancy analysis

• Need to prioritize road safety

• Need to strengthen institutions that will lead a long term management over the network

CHRISTOPHER ZEGRAS

(COMMENTS)

Ford Career Development Associate Professor of Transportation &

Urban Planning and Engineering Systems, MIT

Discussion + Q&A

Thank you for joining us!

Tomorrow…

2nd colombian conference at · 26/04/2013 · la felisa buenaventura pto berrio santa marta buga...

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