31/05/2012 - oecd.org 9 source: thailand automotive institute, federation of thailand industry and...
Post on 11-Mar-2018
224 Views
Preview:
TRANSCRIPT
31/05/2012
1
Thailand economic and steel industry development
To
OECD STEEL COMMITTEE MEETING
By
Iron and Steel Institute of Thailand (ISIT)
MAY, 2012
CONTENTS
ISIT introduction
Thailand steel industry snapshot
Key drivers to Thailand steel market in medium term
Steel industry and AEC
1
31/05/2012
2
Ministry of Industry
Office of the Board of Investment Office of the Minister
Permanent Secretary Industrial Economics Sector
Office of IndustrialEconomicsOffice of the
Permanent SecretaryOffice of the CaneAnd Sugar Board
Industrial Promotion Sector
Department of Industrial Works
Independent Bodies1. Thai – German Institute 2. Thailand Productivity Institute3. Thailand Textile Institute 4. National Food Institute5. Iron and Steel Institute of Thailand6. Thailand Automotive Institute 7. Electrical and Electronics Institute8. Management System Certification Institute9. Institute for Small and Medium Enterprises Development
• Industrial Estate Authority of Thailand
• Office of Small and Medium Enterprises Promotion
Department of Primary Industries and Mines
Thai Industrial Standards Institute
Department of Industrial Promotion
Production Control and Inspection Sector
Iron and Steel Institute of Thailand, a network of the
Ministry of Industry
2
Mission and Vision
Vision Mission
“
“
ISIT aims to
develop Thai iron and
steel industry to be
internationally
competitive and
effectively drive the
development of
strategic industry.
1. Encourage industrial
competitiveness
2. Co-operate and support
government’s policy
3. Develop iron and steel
industrial database
4. Encourage the co-ordination
and co-operation among
involving stakeholders
5. Create value-added services
for iron and steel industry
3
31/05/2012
3
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Defending
201 Measure
Issuing Thai
Safeguard Measure
Issuing Anti-
Dumping
Measure of HR, CR, and CRSS
Adjusting
Harmonize
Code 10
Digits
Training
Custom Officers
Steel Industry
Transformation plan Intelligence
Unit
Launching the
project of steel
industry’s
energy development Launching the
project of steel
industry’s
efficiency and
productivity development
Launching the
project of
downstream
industry’s efficiency
and productivity development
Technology Platform
Upgrading
Testing Center
Introduction
of Integrating
Training Course
Encouragement
of Integrated
Steel Project
for High Quality Steel
Defending
EU
Safeguard Measure
ISIT past major activities
2009 2010
Structural
Steel
Consultation Center
Leading Indicator
Technical Service
Expand scope
of testing to
non-Metal and Environment
Feasibility
Study of
Sustainable
Integrated Iron
and Steel
Industry
Development
in Thailand
4
2011 2012
Neural
Network
for Steel
Price Forecast
Guidelines
Set up for
Thailand
Steel
Industry
Under
ASEAN
Economic Community
Master Plan to
Energy
Management
for Steel
Industry in next 20 years
5
ISIT’s collaboration network
ISIT
JISF NEDO
Worldsteel
AACHEN
CISA TSIIA
KOSA
SEAISI
VSA
MISIF
PISI IISIA
Federation of Thai Industries
Ministry of Industry
Ministry of Finance
Ministry of Science
Ministry of Commerce
Steel companies
Steel fabricators
Part makers
Universities Research Institutes
AISC CISRI
31/05/2012
4
CONTENTS
ISIT introduction
Thailand steel industry snapshot
Key drivers to Thailand steel market in medium term
Steel industry and AEC
6
Thailand steel industry development started from re-rolling business
Traders / Stockists
Rebar – old mill
Long – mini mills
Flat– rolling mills
Flat – mini mills
Downstream - Flat
Downstream - Flat
Cold-
formed
section
& pipe
Rolling mills
Mini mills
1960s 1950s
1996 1992
1995
1960s
Capacity
- Semi – Long: 5.8 million tpy
- Semi – Flat: 3.0 million tpy
- Rolled products: Long: 8.5 million tpy
- Rolled products: Flat: 12.9 million tpy 7
31/05/2012
5
… that limit local production to serve overall demand
3,837
13,877
10,758
14,647
1,814
5,161 5,565
3,646 4,238
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Apparent Steel Demand ('000 Tonnes) Crude Steel Production ('000 Tonnes)
Apparent steel demand compares to crude steel production (‘000 Tonnes)
Thailand imported all raw material, semis and finished products at 14.96 million tonnes in 2011
High grade steel products are imported from Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, EU and US at 6.59 million
tonnes in 2011 (45% of overall steel demand)
Intensive competition from Chinese steel products as import rose from 0.65 million tonnes in 2009 to
1.9 million tonnes in 2011
Thailand exported steel products at 0.73 million tonnes, 53% of total export go to ASEAN
Source: Iron and Steel Institute of Thailand
8
Overall steel market has increased on average 7.3% per year
during last 11 years
Thailand apparent steel use (‘000 Tonnes)
CAGR 11/00 (%)
4.3 %
7.9%
7.3%
-1.1 %
Source: Iron and Steel Institute of Thailand
7,4837,074
8,087
8,967
1,559 1,388
8,031
3,837
5,960
6,762
7,607
10,049
10,967
12,661
13,876
12,15412,716
13,581
10,758
14,01214,653
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
Production Import Export Apparent steel use
9
31/05/2012
6
10
Construction is major steel consuming sector
Demand per capita = 217 Kg.
Ratio Long product : Flat product = 33 : 67
Demand breakdown
- Construction 54%
- Automotive 16%
- Machinery & Industrial 13%
- Appliance 12%
- Packaging 5%
Source: Iron and Steel Institute of Thailand
Thai economy is expected to grow in the range of 5.5 - 6.5%
in 2012
Source: Office of the National Economic and Social Development Board
11
31/05/2012
7
Thailand apparent steel use projection in 2012 (‘000 Tonnes)
Steel demand in 2012 is expected to expand by 6.1% to 15.55 million tonnes
10,758
14,012
14,65315,207
2009 2010 2011 2012E
15,887 15,547
Assumption
Construction sector expands by 1%-3%
Automotive sector expands by 20%-39%
Appliance sector expands by 5%-7%
Machinery sector expands by 3%-5%
Canned food sector expands by 2%-4%
Source: Iron and Steel Institute of Thailand
12
CONTENTS
ISIT introduction
Thailand steel industry snapshot
Key drivers to Thailand steel market in medium term
Steel industry and AEC
13
31/05/2012
8
Opportunity in Thailand construction market
Infrastructure development
Residential and
commercial building
Industrial factory
Mass transit development
Irrigation development
New condominium and housing along subway and
skytrain lines
New investment from appliances and machinery
sectors
Factory relocation from Japan
14
Source: Iron and Steel Institute of Thailand
Source: Oxford Economics and ISIT analysis
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Construction: Total Construction: Building Construction: Civil engineering
Thailand capital formation in construction outlook index
5.8%
4.8% 5.2%
CAGR 15/10 (%)
Hope Thailand infrastructure development will perform well during next five years
15
31/05/2012
9
Source: Thailand Automotive Institute, Federation of Thailand Industry and Somboon Advance Technology PLC.
Path for Thailand automotive industry
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Auto output
(Million units)
Auto capacity
(Million units)
Milestone
1.6 1.5 2.1 2.3 2.5 2.7
Nissan-
March
Ford- Fiesta
Honda-
Brio
Eco car-
Mitsu, Suzuki
GM: Pickup
export
Ford: More
export
Eco car-
Toyota
AEC-
Free
labor
move
Total
export:
1.3
million
units
16
2.2 2.7 3.0
Source: Somboon Advance Technology
New model in 2012 and beyond
Path for Thailand automotive industry
17
31/05/2012
10
Farm machinery and petrochemical business are potential sectors under industrial
Sub-sector 2009/2008 (%)
2012/2009 (% per year)
2015/2012 (% per year)
2015/2009 (% per year)
Sugar & Ethanol
Food processing
Power plant
Farm machine
Chemical & petrochemical plant
Paper
4.4 5.7 5.7 4.7
3.6 5.8 5.1 4.5
1.7 2.7 1.9 1.8
20.3 13.1 8.8 8.7
5.6 9.0 10.6 8.3
0 1.7 2.0 1.6
Source: ISIT survey on Market Analysis and Forecast of Thailand Stainless Steel, 2010
Projection of business growth 2009 - 2015
18
19
New major investments come from local and abroad
2010
Millcon Steel Industries invested THB 2.9bn ($87.6m) on a melting shop to support its
long products rolling operations with capacity 500,000 tonnes per year
2011
JFE Steel Corporation established JFE Steel Galvanizing (Thailand) Ltd to produce high
end hot-dip galvanized steel sheet with capacity 400,000 tonnes per year to serve
automakers steel demand
2012
Nippon Steel Corp invested $300 million to build a steel galvanising production line in
Thailand named Nippon Steel Galvanizing (Thailand) Co., Ltd. This mill will supply hot-
dip galvanized and galvannealed steel sheets for automotive
Tycoons Worldwide Group (Thailand) has announced that the company is going to
invest about TWD 1.672 billion to build the electric furnace in its Thailand mill. The
designed annual capacity of this new billet production line will be 500,000 tonnes per
year
31/05/2012
11
CONTENTS
ISIT introduction
Thailand steel industry snapshot
Key drivers to Thailand steel market in medium term
Steel industry and AEC
20
1967 1997
Milestones of ASEAN
1984 1995 1999 2003 2007
40th Anniversary of ASEAN Cebu The Philippines
MYANMAR BRUNEI DARUSSALAM
2015
ASEAN Community
AFTA
1992
Bangkok Declaration
LAOS
INDONESIA
MALAYSIA
PHILIPPINES
SINGAPORE
THAILAND
VIETNAM
CAMBODIA
21
Declaration of ASEAN Concord II
Bali Indonesia
31/05/2012
12
22
AEC Single Market and Production base
To create a stable, prosperous
and highly competitive ASEAN economic region
Freer flow of capital
Free flow of goods
services, investment, and skilled labor
characteristic
objective
Overview of the ASEAN Economic Community
Characteristics of ASEAN steel industry
23
Source: Iron and Steel Institute of Thailand
Fragmented production facilities
Lack of ironmaking
Scrap base steelmaking limits capability
to produce high grade steel products
Net import of semi-finished product,
especially slab
Net import of long and flat products,
especially high grade products
Rising intra-competition among
producers in region
31/05/2012
13
24
Implications to the ASEAN steel industry
Steel trade center/network
ASEAN Joint Venture Firm
ASEAN Holding Firm
Private sector roles
Rule of Origin (ROO)
Mutual Recognition Agreement
Trade Facilitation
New investment in high grade steel product
Preparation for new trade regulations
Government roles
Cooperation with private sector and government to create solid and fast action
Data center in trade statistics, trade regulations, and insightful market information
Steel association/institute can play roles in
Source: Iron and Steel Institute of Thailand
25
THANK YOU
top related