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Benchmarks and scoreboards
- the growing use of statistics for European policy-making
4th Central Balance Sheet Conferences
Banco de Portugal, Madeira, 22 October 2014
Aurel Schubert
Director General Statistics
European Central Bank
ECB-UNRESTRICTED
www.ecb.europa.eu ©
Outline
2 Challenges in ESCB’s statistics production
1 Growing use of statistics for European policies
ECB-PUBLIC
3 Conclusions
2
www.ecb.europa.eu ©
ESCB statistics are vital for:
• ECB’s monetary policy
• Other (growing) policy functions (financial stability, systemic
risk and macro-prudential surveillance, payment systems
oversight, risk management…)
Growing use of statistics for European policies
3
www.ecb.europa.eu ©
ECB‘s growing tasks requiring statistics
• Increasing role of Financial Stability Statistics
• Statistical support to the Banking Union („micro-prudential
policy“)
• Statistical support to the European Systemic Risk Board
(„macro-prudential policy“)
• ECB contributes to G-20 initiatives to close global data gaps
• ECB statistics are a public good
4
Growing use of statistics for European policies
www.ecb.europa.eu ©
• The EU reforms following the crisis
• Use indicators as alert mechanisms (early warning tools)
and to enforce policy compliance
Financial
supervisory
policies
Fiscal
policies
Macro-
economic
policies
Statistics are key to EU policy-makers’ decisions
ESRB
“Risk-Dashboard”
For macro-prudential
policy
Commission
scoreboard
for
“macro-imbalance”
Procedure
Growing use of statistics for European policies
5
www.ecb.europa.eu ©
Content:
50 Risk-Indicators and 6 Risk-Typologies
Objectives
Risk assessment
Input to further systemic risk analysis Communication tool
Macro risk Credit risk Market risk Funding and Liquidity Interlinkages Profitability & Solvency
ESRB Risk Dashboard - Macro-prudential policy
6
www.esrb.europa.eu
9 issues since 20 September 2012
• Allows a synthetic view of the situation and allows to focus on specific aspects
• Gives a first indication where to focus deeper analysis. Cannot replace expert
judgment, but complements it
www.ecb.europa.eu © 7
6 of 11 indicators are based on statistics shared
competence between ESS/ESCB
General Government Debt
Financial sector liabilities
Private sector debt
Private sector credit flow
House prices
Unemployment
Current account balance
Net investment position
Real effective exchange rates
Share of world exports
Nominal unit labor costs
ESS
ESS/ESCB
ESS/ESCB
ESS/ESCB
ESS
ESS
ESS/ESCB
ESS/ESCB
Commission (ECFIN)
ESS/ESCB
ESS
Scoreboard
Scoreboard for EU macro-economic surveillance
www.ecb.europa.eu ©
Commission Scoreboard – outcome for 2012
8
Latest release: 13 November 2013
www.ecb.europa.eu ©
• Increased policy relevance quality of statistics of greater
importance
- Statistics now trigger warnings, recommendations, corrective actions and eventually
fines
• Statistics should not be subject to political considerations
(“independence”)
• Robust quality standards systematically applied
9
Growing use of statistics for European policies: Quality
www.ecb.europa.eu ©
Challenges in ESCB statistics production
More detailed data
• Country data
• Micro-databases
• Distributional data
• Reporting burden
• Confidentiality
• Compiler’s resources
Increasing
demands
Facing
constraints
10
www.ecb.europa.eu ©
• In addition to euro area/EU aggregates, there is also a
need for EU individual country data (e.g. for country
missions)
More detailed data: individual countries
11
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• More granular data collection
• More resource intensive for compilers, less costly for reporting agents
• Increased flexibility in responding to (complex) data requests
• Examples:
More detailed data: micro-datasets
Development of micro-datasets
• Centralised Securities Database
• Securities Holdings Statistics
• Credit register (Ana Credit)
• Supervisory data
• Register of Financial Institutions
• Household and corporate surveys
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1. Importance SME euro area
economy:
• 99.8% (number of firms)
• 60% (turnover)
• 70% (employment)
2. Euro area data: SME financing
situation very heterogenous
3. In Portugal access to financing for
SME was somewhat less of a
concern but
• 43% of SMEs perceive it as a very
pressing problem (giving it 7-10 on a
scale of 1-10)
More detailed data: distributions Survey on SME Access to Finance
13
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Accessibility to statistics
• ECB website
– Press releases
– Interactive graphics
– Publications
• Statistical Data Warehouse
http://sdw.ecb.europa.eu
14
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1. Increased policy relevance of statistics
2. Statistics = powerful tool for communication and cooperation with
policy makers and relevant stakeholders
3. Quality of statistics is crucial, starting from the quality of the input data
4. Access to statistics as an important aspect of accountability and credibility
Conclusions
15
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Thank you for your reporting and for your attention !!!
Any questions?
www.ecb.europa.eu ©
Annex
www.ecb.europa.eu ©
European System of Central Banks (ESCB) = ECB + 28 National Central Banks (NCBs) of the European Union Eurosystem = ECB + 18 NCBs of EU countries which have adopted the euro
www.ecb.europa.eu ©
The ESCB’s own produced European statistics
The European statistics produced by Eurostat and the
national statistical offices (e.g. GDP, HICP, labour market
and short-term business statistics)
… and also data from commercial data providers
Monetary and financial
statistics
External statistics
Securities statistics
Quarterly euro area accounts
Supervisory statistics
Other statistics
decision making is supported by
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Production of ESCB Statistics
www.ecb.europa.eu ©
Responsibility
• General economic statistics
• All non-economic statistics
Responsibility
• Monetary and financial statistics
• Quarterly financial accounts
• International reserves
• Effective exchange rates
Memorandum of Understanding (MoU)
Committee on Monetary,
Financial and Balance of
Payments Statistics
Shared responsibility
• B.o.p. and i.i.p. statistics
• European accounts by sector
• Statistical infrastructure
European System of Central Banks
(ESCB)/Eurosystemm
European Statistical System
(ESS)
EU National
Central Banks
ECB
EU National
Statistical
Institutes
Two statistical systems
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