50 breakthroughs: critical scientific & technological breakthroughs.required for sustainable...

15:00 - 17:30

Tecnologías para la sostenibilidad

Presenta: Julio EismanDirector Fundación ACCIONA Microenergía

“50 BREAKTHROUGHS: CRITICAL SCIENTIFIC & TECHNOLOGICAL BREAKTHROUGHS.Required for Sustainable Global Development”

Zach FriedmanDirector de programas del “Institute for Globally Transformative Technologies”. Universidad de Berkeley

June 2015

Institute for Globally Transformative Technologies at the Lawrence Berkeley National Lab

50 BREAKTHROUGHS: CRITICAL SCIENTIFIC & TECHNOLOGICAL BREAKTHROUGHS

Required for Sustainable Global Development

Inventing, developing and deploying the next generation of technological breakthroughs to combat global poverty

LIGTT: An Introduction

• 3,500 scientists and engineers

• $800 million of annual R&D

• 13 Nobel Laureates

• Historically US-focused

Institute for Globally Transformative Technologies

at the Lawrence Berkeley National Lab

Objective: Leverage LBNL’s capabilities towards breakthrough solutions for sustainable global development

Core beliefs

1. Populations at the base of the pyramid lack essential products to enjoy an adequate quality-of-life. There is a large market for such products.

New generation of products—low-cost, robust, energy-efficient—required to improve food security, health, work productivity, access to information & household comfort.

2. Such breakthroughs require serious R&D, which the private sector has not invested in, due to low expected margins and unpredictable market dynamics

Leverage is key to reducing upstream costs and commercial feasibility.

Yield response to varying levels of fertilizer

40 80 120 160

2,000

2,450

2,800

3,200

Fertilizer use (kilograms per hectare)

Yield: Tons per hectare

Fertilizer usage around the world

Maize Rice

40

10

70

160

210 210

270

250

SSA India China USA

Kilograms per hectare

Human waste is not sufficient

Potential increase in cereal production vs. percent of adult human waste utilized for fertilizer

0% 6% 12%18%24%30%36%42%48%54%60%66%72%78%84%90%96% -

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

Percentage of adult human waste utilized

Inc

rea

se

in c

ere

al y

ield

(M

illio

ns

of

ton

s)

*(Percentage of current cereal production in Kenya, 4.5 billion tons)

*(5%)

*(10%)

*(15%)

*(20%)

*(25%)

Human waste is not sufficient

Current Yield increase from family waste

Total

1660.0

134.5

1794.5

Current maize yield on a 1 hA farm in Kenya, and potential increase from using human waste from 3 adults,

Tons per year

Health

Climate change & environmental damage

Education

Human rights

Energy

Digital inclusion

Gender equity

Food security

Water

Analysis across 9 major issue areas

Methodology

What are the most significant root causes of loss?

Health: DALYsAgriculture: Yield loss

What underlies these problems and what are the most promising interventions?

What is the dependence of each intervention on:

• Major policy reforms

• Infrastructure development

• Financial inclusion

• Behavior change

• Breakthrough technologyWhat are the major deployment challenges?

What is the projected time horizon for each technology breakthrough?

Key Challenges

1) The innovation pipeline needs strengthening

2) The R&D gap between developing and developed countries is wide and unlikely to change soon

US NIH budget (grants) Global spend on neglected diseases

27

3

Funding for health research in the US from NIH and for global diseases from all sources (USD, billions)

2) The R&D gap between developing and developed countries is wide and unlikely to change soon

Funding per DALY (global spend and DALYs)

Funding per DALY (US cancer funding and US DALYs only)

HIV

Mal

aria TB

Dengu

e

Diarrh

eal d

iseas

e

Kinet

opla

stid

s

Pneum

o/m

enin

gitis

Helm

nith

s

Prost

ate

Breas

t

Lung

s

Colon

14 7 12

311

2 32 1 7

1,262 1,168

177

577

3) Academic systems often do not support research in development

4) New technologies don’t fix broken systems

World average

OECD countries

South Asia

Sub-Saharan

Africa

$95 $53

$5,457

$952

Per capita annual expenditure on health

Percent of total expenditure on health

Out-of-pocket expenditure on health

30%

60%

14%18%

World average

OECD countries

South Asia

Sub-Saharan

Africa

4) New technologies don’t fix broken systems

0.6 0.6

4.2

3.7

Number of hospital beds

Per 1,000 people

World average

OECD countries

South Asia

Sub-Saharan

Africa

4) New technologies don’t fix broken systems

Number of physicians

0.2

0.6

2.8

1.4

Per 1,000 peopleNumber of nurses and midwives

0.8 0.9

7.4

2.9

Per 1,000 peopleBirths attended by skilled health staff

47% 48%

99%

67%

Percent of births

Sub-Saharan

Africa

Sub-Saharan

Africa

Sub-Saharan

Africa

South Asia

South Asia

South Asia

OECD countries

OECD countries

OECD countries

World average

World average

World average

5) The lowest income individuals are the hardest to reach

5) The lowest income individuals are the hardest to reach

Location of birth by income bracket in sub-Saharan Africa

6) No one really understands what climate change will look like

Select quotes quotes from IPCC 2013 report [emphasis added]…

“Africa is one of the most vulnerable continents to climate change and climate variability, a situation aggravated by the interaction of ‘multiple stresses’, occurring at various levels, and low adaptive capacity.”

“Projected reductions in yield in some countries could be as much as 50% by 2020, and crop net revenues could fall by as much as 90% by 2100.... This would adversely affect food security in the continent.”

“The population at risk of increased water stress in Africa is projected to be between 75-250 million and 350-600 million people by the 2020s and 2050s, respectively”

“Climate variability and change could result in low-lying lands being inundated, with resultant impacts on coastal settlements”

“Climate variability and change, coupled with human-induced changes, may also affect ecosystems e.g., mangroves and coral reefs, with additional consequences for fisheries and tourism.”

“The projection that sea-level rise could increase flooding, particularly on the coasts of eastern Africa, will have implications for health.”

“The cost of adaptation to sea-level rise could amount to at least 5-10% of gross domestic product”

7) We don’t really know what sustainable development is

The private sector and academia

What is the role of the private sector?

What is the role of academia?

Research & Education?

or

Impact?

The valley of death

But there’s some good news…

Deployment of commercial capital is growing

New technologies are enabling new paradigms in delivery and distribution

Key characteristicsKey characteristicsFacilityFacilityInfrastructure levelInfrastructure level

Level 0

Level 1

Level 2

Level 4

Level 3

• Variable level of sophistication

• Better-equipped hospitals typically private, serving wealthier clients

• Small, off-grid buildings

• Rudimentary equipment

• Health workers have limited training

• Makeshift structures, used for vaccine campaigns, etc.

• Equipment usually brought by health workers

Health posts/Community outreach

Health centers, clinics

District hospitals

National hospital

Provincial hospital

3,100

10,400

15,500

70,100

374,600

LMIC LocationsLMIC Locations

Our thinking is becoming increasingly sophisticated with systems replacing single-solution products

Point-source solutionPoint-source solution Electricity as a serviceElectricity as a service Appropriate infrastructureAppropriate infrastructure

Institute for Globally Transformative Technologies at the Lawrence Berkeley National Lab

zfriedman@ligtt.org