8/5/2010 national petroleum council future transportation fuels study - engines/vehicles subgroup...

8/5/2010

National Petroleum CouncilFuture Transportation Fuels Study -

Engines/Vehicles Subgroup Overview(part of Supply & Infrastructure Task Group)

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Britta K. Gross24 Aug 2010

07/26/2010

Engines/Vehicles Subgroup – Membership(Chair, Engine/Vehicle - General Motors - Alan Taub)

GM: Britta Gross586-596-0382britta.gross@gm.com

Toyota: Bill Reinert310-468-4047Bill_Reinert@Toyota.com

Ford: Dominic diCicco313-594-2916

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Tier 3 - Stakeholders or Focus Group Members (tent.)

Joan Ogden (UC Davis)

Dennis Assanis (UM)

Sandia: Jay Keller/Art Pontau (basic combustion)

Oak Ridge: Ron Graves (applied combustion)

Argonne: Michael Wang/Larry Johnson (WTW, veh sim, hybrid)

NREL: Matt Thornton/Dale Gardner (veh sim)

Honda: Jeff Jetter (TBD)310-781-5754jjetter@hra.com

Marathon: Mike Leistermeleister@marathonoil.com

Exxon: Charlie Schleyer856-224-2906 charles.h.schleyer@exxonmobil.com

Tier 2 - Specialized Team members/ Contributors:

EIA: John Maples202-586-1757john.maples@eia.doe.gov

CAR: Brett Smith734-929-0491/734-255-0884bsmith@cargroup.org

EPA: Chet France (TBD)734-214-4338 france.chet@epa.gov

Chrysler: Gary Oshnock248-576-7466/c248-425-0870gro1@chrysler.com

FEV: Chris Baillie 248-373-6000 x2737baillie@fev-et.com

VW: Stuart Johnson248-754-4208stuart.johnson@vw.com

Tier 1 - Core Team Members:

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Engines/Vehicles Subgroup – Scope

In Scope:• Spark ignition engine technologies that address thermodynamic, pumping and friction losses

• Compression ignition (diesel) technologies that include advanced combustion and after-treatment

• Improved transmission systems

• Reduced accessory loads

• Vehicle enablers such as low rolling resistance tires, improved aerodynamics and mass reduction

• A range of hybridization options

• A range of fuels including Gasoline, Ethanol, Butanol, Biogasoline, Future Gasoline, Diesel, DME, Biodiesel, Future Diesel, Other Biofuels, Renewable Diesel

• Impact of fuel composition (e.g. E85) and properties, such as octane and cetane, as vehicle efficiency enablers

• Impact of alt fuels on driving range (e.g. E85) and refueling time

• Impact of alt fuels on engine/vehicle technologies (e.g. cost of hardening engine systems for E85)

Out of Scope:• Engines operating on gaseous fuels, plug-in hybrids, battery electric vehicles, fuel cells and free-piston

engines (all covered by other subgroups)

• Auxiliary uses of ICE (e.g. using ICE to charge battery)

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Engines/Vehicles Subgroup – Scope Paragraph

Engines/Vehicles Subgroup - Scope The focus of the Engines/Vehicles Subgroup will be to analyze and summarize studies assessing the fuel consumption benefits and costs for a range of engine and vehicle technologies. Included are: a range of spark ignition and compression ignition engine technologies; improved transmissions; reduced accessory loads; vehicle enablers such as low rolling resistance tires, improved aerodynamics, and mass reduction; and a range of hybridization options. Also included will be an investigation of how alternative fuels, such as ethanol, or changes in fuel properties, such as increased octane and cetane, can enable improved vehicle efficiency and how alternative fuels impact driving range and refueling time. Alternative combustion technologies, such as turbine and Stirling engines will be discussed briefly.

Technologies that are out of scope because they are covered by other teams include engines operating on gaseous fuels, plug-in electric vehicles, fuel cells, and free-piston engines.

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08/05/2010

Engines/Vehicles Subgroup - Light Duty Vehicle/Fuel Pathways

  SI cars and light trucks CI cars and light trucks

Oil RefiningGasoline

X  

Unconvention Oil Refining X  

Corn Fermentation

Ethanol

X  

Sugar Fermentation X  

Cellulosic Conversion X  

Other Pathways X  

Various Pathways Butanol X  

Various Pathways Biogasoline X  

Various Pathways Future Gasoline X  

Oil Refining

Diesel

  X

Unconvention Oil Refining   X

CTL   X

GTL   X

Various Pathways DME   X

Oil and Fat Esterification Biodiesel   X

Various Pathways Future Diesel   X

Various Pathways Other Biofuels   X

Various Pathways Renewable diesel   X

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Supply and Infrastructure Team (higher level) – Framing Questions

Draft Framing Questions:

1. What is the range of (volume) projections for U.S. transportation fuel supply through 2050 ?

2. What is the projected composition for the 2050 fuels portfolio?

3. What assumptions and drivers underlie different supply projections?

4. How will low-carbon fuels phase into and out of the supply portfolio?

5. What technologies are needed for transitioning to a low-carbon fuels portfolio?

6. What are the development pathways for these technologies?

7. Which fuel /engine synergies generate the greatest efficiency gains in 2050?

8. What land, water, and other environmental resource issues will impact future fuel supply?

9. What factors will accelerate the supply at scale of non-fossil fuels?

10. What infrastructure will be needed for the 2050 fuels portfolio?

11. How should gaps between the current and future fuels infrastructure be addressed?

12. What are the state and regional implications of the 2050 fuels portfolio and infrastructure?

13. What are the investment and financing requirements for a low-carbon fuels infrastructure?

14. What changes to regulatory processes would accelerate development of new infrastructure?

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Engines/Vehicles Subgroup – Framing Questions 8/23/2010

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In Revie

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08/05/2010

Engines/Vehicles Subgroup - Deliverables

A report summarizing status, drivers, potential, and cost effectiveness of increases in engine and vehicle efficiency

Background:

• Light duty vehicle fuel economy history

• Current regulations

• Vehicle and fuel technology options

• Analysis of existing literature

For 3 classes of light duty vehicle (small car, large car, large LD truck):– fuel consumption – incremental cost to consumer of technology– timing (availability of first gen and mature technology)– vehicle emissions (CO2, NOx, SOx, VOC, PM)– vehicle driving range

Cost effectiveness of technology options– $ increase in cost of vehicle ownership/ton of GHG saved at reference case fuel price– $ increase in cost of vehicle ownership/bbl of oil saved at reference case fuel price– Breakeven gas price (gasoline price that offsets incremental cost of various vehicle fuel efficiency improvements)

• Include estimates of changes in driving behavior, such as vehicle speeds, on fuel consumption

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-- mild hybridization-- strong hybridization-- light-weighting-- low rolling resistance-- aerodynamic improvements-- flex fuel

-- direct injection-- variable valves-- downsizing and turbo-charging-- HCCI-- advanced transmissions-- diesel

-- octane-- cetane-- sulfur-- E85-- DME-- biodiesel

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Task Description Actual Date

Develop Preliminary Scope and Framing Questions 23 July 2010

Establish Core Team 15 August 2010

Finalize Draft Scope and Framing Questions with Core Team 30 August 2010

Core Team Bi-weekly Meetings Launched 3 September 2010

Complete first draft of vehicle assumptions 30 September 2010

Engines/Vehicles Subgroup - Startup Approach