8th annual cmas conference, chapel hill, october 19-21, 2009 eurasia institute of earth sciences /...

8th annual CMAS conference, Chapel Hill, October 19-21, 2009 Eurasia Institute of Earth Sciences / ITU

IMPACTS OF ISTANBUL EMISSIONS ON REGIONAL AIR QUALITY: QUANTIFICATION USING MODELS-3 FRAMEWORK AND

TRAJECTORY ANALYSIS

Huseyin Ozdemira, Ulas Imb, Markakis Kostandinosc, Tugba Agacayakd, Alper Unald, Tayfun Kindapd, Maudood Khane

aBahcesehir University, Environmental Engineering Department, Istanbul, TURKEY

bBogazici University, Institute of Environmental Sciences, Istanbul, TURKEY

cAristotle University of Thessaloniki, Department of Physics, Thessaloniki, GREECE

dIstanbul Technical University, Eurasia Institute of Earth Sciences, Istanbul, TURKEY

eUniversities Space Research Association NASA Marshall Square Flight Center, Huntsville AL., USA

8th annual CMAS conference, Chapel Hill, October 19-21, 2009 Eurasia Institute of Earth Sciences / ITU

Outline

Introduction

Episode selection

Trajectory analysis

Emissions modeling

Air quality modeling results

Discussions and conclusions

8th annual CMAS conference, Chapel Hill, October 19-21, 2009 Eurasia Institute of Earth Sciences / ITU

Istanbul

8th annual CMAS conference, Chapel Hill, October 19-21, 2009 Eurasia Institute of Earth Sciences / ITU

Research Objectives

Identify the reasons for high PM levels in Istanbul

Quantify effect of Istanbul emissions on regional air

quality

Method:

Comprehensive high resolution anthropogenic

emission inventory

Models-3 modeling framework

8th annual CMAS conference, Chapel Hill, October 19-21, 2009 Eurasia Institute of Earth Sciences / ITU

Observations

8th annual CMAS conference, Chapel Hill, October 19-21, 2009 Eurasia Institute of Earth Sciences / ITU

Episode

January 13-17, 2008

8th annual CMAS conference, Chapel Hill, October 19-21, 2009 Eurasia Institute of Earth Sciences / ITU

Trajectory Analysis

Autumn Spring

Summer Winter

Forward trajectory method by Pettersen (1956)

8th annual CMAS conference, Chapel Hill, October 19-21, 2009 Eurasia Institute of Earth Sciences / ITU

Modeling Domain

8th annual CMAS conference, Chapel Hill, October 19-21, 2009 Eurasia Institute of Earth Sciences / ITU

Emission Inventory

92 x 57 km area with 2 km grid spacing

Temporal resolution on monthly, weekly and diurnal

processing

Compiling the emission inventory (bottom-up

methodology)

- Residential and industrial combustion

- Energy sector

- Maritime sector

- Solvents use and coal extraction emissions

8th annual CMAS conference, Chapel Hill, October 19-21, 2009 Eurasia Institute of Earth Sciences / ITU

Emission Inventory

High quality geographical information (GIS)

Mapbasic 9.0 programming language

Mapinfo 9.0 GIS software

39 chemical species

8th annual CMAS conference, Chapel Hill, October 19-21, 2009 Eurasia Institute of Earth Sciences / ITU

Schematic diagram of the emission processor

(Kostandinos et al., 2009, submitted)

8th annual CMAS conference, Chapel Hill, October 19-21, 2009 Eurasia Institute of Earth Sciences / ITU

Chemistry and Transport Modeling

The US EPA Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ)

model, version 4.6

Three domains (on lambert conformal projection)

- Europe in a 163×150 grid system of 30 km res.

- Balkan region in a 140×155 grids domain of 10 km res.

- Istanbul in a 92×57 grids domain of 2 km res.

- 20 vertical layers

The first three days - spin-up period

8th annual CMAS conference, Chapel Hill, October 19-21, 2009 Eurasia Institute of Earth Sciences / ITU

MODELING RESULTS

8th annual CMAS conference, Chapel Hill, October 19-21, 2009 Eurasia Institute of Earth Sciences / ITU

MODELING RESULTS

Measures PM10

Correlation 0.62

Observed Mean (µg/m3) 81.74

Model Mean / Obs. Mean 0.55

Observed STDDEV (µg/m3) 15.14

Model STDEV / Obs. STDEV 1.25

BIAS (µg/m3) -47.73

ABSE (µg/m3) 47.73

RMSE (µg/m3) 49.77

IOA 0.38

8th annual CMAS conference, Chapel Hill, October 19-21, 2009 Eurasia Institute of Earth Sciences / ITU

Obs. Mean

(µg/m3)

Model Mean/ObsMean

BIAS (µg/m3)

ABSE (µg/m3) RMSE (µg/m3)

Alibeyköy 92.7 1.6 53.9 73.5 85.3

Beşiktaş 105.5 0.5 -49.4 53.1 62.9

Saraçhane 88.5 1.4 36.4 80.1 96

Sarıyer 95.2 0.6 -36.1 36.1 44.7

Yenibosna 126.1 0.7 -38.4 60.8 87.1

Esenler 202.2 0.7 -64.7 65.6 89.3

Kartal 116.8 0.4 -67.8 67.8 73.9

Ümraniye 92.7 0.3 -62.8 62.8 65.7

Üsküdar 103.2 0.7 -34.7 44.6 54.8

MODELING RESULTS

8th annual CMAS conference, Chapel Hill, October 19-21, 2009 Eurasia Institute of Earth Sciences / ITU

Summary

The PM10 levels calculated by the model underestimated the

observations with an average of 30%.

Uncertainties between model results and observations

Lacking of temporal profiles

Meteorology may introduce large uncertainties

Static boundary conditions may introduce high uncertainties

Performance evaluation for meteorology model results are

underway

For future work we are planning to improve emissions data

8th annual CMAS conference, Chapel Hill, October 19-21, 2009 Eurasia Institute of Earth Sciences / ITU

Thank you.