a comparative study of energy forms used by the g-8 between the years 1980-2006

Team Members

•Brandi Brehon, ECSU

•April Harry, Xavier

•Kenneth Joyner, ECSU

•Martin Arienmughare, Lincoln

•Kaiem Frink, ECSU

•Dr. Andrea Lawrence (Mentor), Spelman

AbstractThe objective for the 2007 Elizabeth City State University-National Association of Mathematicians Computational Science and Scientific Visualization Summer Institute research project is to compare the various major types of energy sources used by the G-8 countries—Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Russia, United Kingdom, and United States—with the assistance of data for the years 1980-2006 from reliable online resources.

Abstract, cont.Comparisons will determine specifically what types of energy sources used by these countries and any concerns that they may produce (environmental or otherwise). This project will evaluate uses of energy for each G-8 country by using regression analysis to predict the energy consumption for each country in 2010. Lines of Regression will be displayed by graphs created in Minitab and MathCAD. Ultimately, we intend to conclude that the consumption of energy for each country will increase by the year 2010.

What is the G8?• The Group of Eight, also known as G8, is an

international forum for the governments of Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Russia, the United Kingdom and the United States. Together, the eight countries represent about 65 percent of the world economy. The group's activities include year-round conferences and policy research, culminating with an annual summit meeting attended by the heads of government of the member states. The eight countries making up the G8 represent about 14 percent of the

The G8, cont.

world population, and they account for nearly two thirds of the world's economic output measured by gross domestic product.

Energy Forms• This project compares each of the G8

country's consumptions of:» Oil» Natural Gas» Coal» Nuclear power» Hydropower» Other Renewables

Energy Consumption, by Country

Total Energy Consumption in United States, byType (2004)

41%

22%

4%

6%

4%

23%

Oil

Natural Gas

Other Renew ables

Hydro

Nuclear

Coal

Total Energy Consumption in Germany, by Type (2004)

37%

24%3%

1%

11%

24%

Oil

Natural Gas

Other Renew ables

Hydro

Nuclear

Coal

Total Energy Consumption in United Kingdom, by Type (2004)

35%

34%

4%

0%

11%

16%

Oil

Natural Gas

Other Renew ables

Hydro

Nuclear

Coal

Total Energy Consumption in France, By Type (2004)

48%

14%

21%

12%

4% 1%

Oil

Natural Gas

Coal

Nuclear

Hydro

Other Renewables

Regression Plots

The World Primary Energy Consumption (1980-2004) Data Table provided by the

Department of Energy was utilized to calculate the estimated amount of energy each G-8 country will consume in the year

2010.

Figure 9. World Primary Energy Consumption Data Table (1980-2004)World Primary Energy Consumption (1980-2004) in Quadrillion BtusRegion/Country 1980 1990 1995 2000 2004Japan 15.224 18.356 20.71 22.45 22.62Former U.S.S.R./Russia 46.735 60.928 27.94 27.46 30.06United Kingdom 8.841 9.277 9.45 9.68 10.04Germany NA NA 14.31 14.26 14.69France 8.445 9.146 10.09 10.87 11.25United States 78.312 84.668 91.2 98.98 100.41Canada 9.699 11.134 12.22 13.05 13.6Italy 6.147 6.77 7.08 7.63 8.27

Using Minitab, a table of each country’s energy consumption from 1980 to 2006 was created. The following data analysis for Japan is displayed as an example

of how each country’s energy consumption data was utilized by Minitab.

We then used the “Fitted Line Plot” feature to produce the following graph, which shows the linear trend in Japan’s energy consumption:

Our statistical information for Japan’s primary energy consumption from 1980-2004, as calculated by Minitab, is as follows:

Predicting Japan’s energy consumption, given that the trend found in past data continues, is now a matter of

substituting for the year in question for the variable x in the regression equation. We used Maple to do this:

So, given that past trends continue, Japan is expected to consume 26.3 quadrillion Btus of energy in 2010.

This process was repeated for the other seven countries, producing the following

results:

Projected Energy Consumption Using Regression Analysis for Year 2010

Country Regression Equation Proj. Energy Cons. (Quad Btus)

Japan y = -637 + .330x 26.3

Russia y = -415 + 0.222x 31.22

United Kingdom Y = -84.7750 + 4.73E-02X 10.2730

Germany Y = -69.8824 + 4.22E-02X 14.804

France Y = -235.613 + 0.123169X 11.230

United States Y = -1880.61 + 0.988729X 106.890

Canada Y = -320.363 + 0.166668X 15.670

Italy y = - 162 + 0.0848 x 8.4480

We then graphed all these lines of regression simultaneously in order to compare them, and draw conclusions

about future energy consumption throughout the world.

ConclusionEvery G-8 country –Japan, Russia, United Kingdom, Germany, France, United States, Canada, and Italy –has different energy sources that are utilized for domestic and industrial energy consumption. Each country’s energy consumption is estimated to increase by the year 2010. However, some countries have significant increases in energy consumption, in contrast other countries increased at a smaller rate. The actual cause for the increase in energy consumption was not investigated. Russia, Japan, and the United States have the highest percentage of annual increases. The increasing populations of these three countries may play a huge role in the predicted increases.

Future ResearchFuture research should contain additional math modeling techniques. The models should include population, pollution, costs, and availability as factors in the increase in energy consumption. It is with sincerity that we hope the DoE will use this additional data analysis to explore our concerns.

Acknowledgements We would first like to acknowledge Dr. Johnny L. Houston for giving us the opportunity to complete this research as participating students of the 2007 ECSU-NAM Summer Research Institute and for being an informative mentor. Special thanks are given to Dr. Andrea Lawrence for being an enlightening mentor, as well as, the Department of Energy for providing the necessary information needed for our research. Acknowledgements are also given to the 2007 Summer Institute faculty, staff, and fellow student researchers.

References (more detailed citations found in technical report)

• www.eia.doe.gov• http://globalis.gvu.unu.edu• http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki• http://www.cslforum.org/• http://energytrends.pnl.gov/