a history of the future of the internet ian graham it strategy & planning

A history of the future ofthe Internet

Ian Graham

IT Strategy & Planningwww.iangraham.org/talks/

history

innovation

banking

1790

Optical Telegrap

h

Codes

Networks

“WAN” circa 1810 In the early 19th century, it was

possible to send a short message from Amsterdam to Venice -- in one hour.

…but was limited to military and government communication – not for business, individuals

Did send lottery tickets, though. Monopolistic Monolithic

application transportnetwork /

addressingdata linkphysical

Monolithic

the end... ... electric

telegraph

terminology still with us, and other legacies...

Optical

Electric

1.14 ¢ 0.038 ¢ 12x7 land

24x7 anywhe

re

N DNuclear Disarmament

18381838

Telegraph

Telegraph and RailwaysTelegraph and Railwayscoordinate traffic

synergy value-add resale

CultureCultureabbreviated messages

--AB BFT CK IF CHN ATE

social networking

technology subculture

The “1891” World The “1891” World NetworkNetwork

...and also pre-1914...and also pre-1914

application transportnetwork /

addressingdata linkphysical

Separation

18771877

Explosive Growth

0

500000

1000000

1500000

2000000

2500000

3000000

3500000

1870 1875 1880 1885 1890 1895 1900 1905 1910

Year

Sub

scri

bers

application transportnetwork /

addressingdata linkphysical

Internet

History

key ideaskey ideastransport-agnosticcomputer-agnostic

peer-to-peerlayered

extensiblesimple

application transportnetwork /

addressingdata linkphysical

Five Layers

coax

tcp

IPv4ethernet

Telnet

slow growth

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

Sep-69 Sep-71 Sep-73 Sep-75 Sep-77 Sep-79 Sep-81 Sep-83 Sep-85 Sep-87 Sep-89

Num

ber o

f Nod

es

<100

Num

ber

of D

omai

nsN

umbe

r of

Dom

ains

1993 ....

...it became easyweb browserHTML, URLsWeb server

1993 – ~56,000 ‘domains’

innovation on all layers

application layer transport layer

physical and data link layers....

“business” apps on top

0

20,000,000

40,000,000

60,000,000

80,000,000

100,000,000

120,000,000

140,000,000

160,000,000

180,000,000

Num

ber

of D

omai

ns1.2 billion internet users

18,000

342,000

N=et N

o. o

f ‘re

spon

ding

’ dom

ains

160 million domains

App-layer evolution

( 1275 ( 1275 DVDs / DVDs / second )second )

Physical layer evolution

Data link evolution

synergymore

customers

innovation in and between

layers

bandwidth ↑newservices

Cost ↓

application transportNetwork...data linkphysical

Innovation

Fiber, coax, RS-232, twisted pair … birds...

Ethernet, WiMAX, WiFi, 802.11, ADSL...

IPv4/6, IPSec,....

HTTP, SOAP, VOIP, SSH, IMAP.....

XML, HTML, ....Web “apps”

TCP, UDP, RSVP, ....

Why?

independent layersinnovation on all layers

partnering between layersopen standards

leverages what’s therecustomer-focus

competition

Lessons?

independent layers innovation

“right” layers takes time

critical threshold

unpredictable

The future.....& Banking?

Today

1 MBPS home access

50 kBPS wireless

200 GB home

storage

Tomorrow

100 MBPS home access

10 MBPS wireless

10 TB home storage

Implications

real-time video, everywhere

store every second of your

life

digital ‘web’ overlapping everything

Howcanwe

innovatelikethe

Internet?

Monolithic Financial Services

Innovative ‘layered’ services

Way out of time!!

Questions?

http://www.iangraham.org/talks/

From http://www.ipbusinessmag.com/departments.php?department_id=17&article_id=335From http://www.ipbusinessmag.com/departments.php?department_id=17&article_id=335

  1999 2000 2001 2002 2003  % of all householdsE-mail 26.3 37.4 46.1 48.9 52.1Electronic banking 8.0 14.7 21.6 26.2 30.8Purchasing goods and services 5.5 9.6 12.7 15.7 18.6Medical or health information 15.6 22.9 30.1 32.8 35.6Formal education/training 9.2 19.0 22.9 24.3 24.9Government information 12.7 18.9 25.6 29.2 32.2General browsing 24.3 36.2 44.3 46.1 48.5Playing games 12.3 18.2 24.4 25.7 27.9Chat groups 7.5 11.0 13.7 14.0 14.4Other Internet services 10.0 17.7 21.1 24.8 23.5Obtain and save music 7.8 17.8 23.3 24.3 20.6Listen to the radio 5.0 9.3 12.3 12.3 13.1Find sports related information .. 17.3 22.1 23.8 24.6Financial information .. 18.5 22.8 23.5 25.0View the news .. 20.4 26.2 27.2 30.2Travel information/arrangements .. 21.9 27.4 30.4 33.6Search for a job .. 12.2 16.2 18.0 19.6

Optical Telegraphs