a hybrid sofm-svr with a filter-based feature selection for stock market forecasting
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A hybrid SOFM-SVR with a A hybrid SOFM-SVR with a filter-based feature selectionfilter-based feature selectionfor stock market forecastingfor stock market forecasting
Huang, C. L. & Tsai, C. Y. Huang, C. L. & Tsai, C. Y.
Expert Systems with Applications 2008
Introduction
Stock market price index prediction is regarded as a challenging task of the finance.
Support vector regression (SVR) has successfully solved prediction problems in many domains, including the stock market.
Introduction
filter-based feature selection to choose important input attributes
SOFM algorithm to cluster the training samples
SVR to predict the stock market price index Using a real future dataset – Taiwan index
futures (FITX) to predict the next day’s price index
Introduction SOFM+SVR : to improve the prediction
accuracy of the traditional SVR method and to reduce its long training time,
SOFM+SVR+filter-based feature selection : improvement in training time, prediction accuracy, and the ability to select a better feature subset is achieved.
SVRSVR
Unlike pattern recognition problems where the desired outputs are discrete values (e.g., Boolean)
support vector regression (SVR) deals with ‘real valued’ functions
Self-organizing Feature Maps; SOFMSelf-organizing Feature Maps; SOFM
SOFMSOFM
1 2
3 4
Training the SOFM-SVR model
1. 1. Scaling the training set 2.Clustering the training dataset 3.Training the Individual SVR Models for
Each Cluster
Training the SOFM-SVR model
Parameters OptimizationParameters Optimization
setting of the SVR parameters can improve the SVR prediction accuracy
Using RBF kernel and ε-insensitive loss function, three parameters, C, r, and ε, should be determined in the SVR model
The grid search approach is a common method to search for the C, r, and ε values.
Grid Search Approach
Evaluating the SOFM-SVR model with test set
Scale the test set based on the scaling equation according to the attribute rage of the training set
Find the cluster to which the test sample in the test set
Calculate the predicted value for each sample in the test set
Calculate the prediction accuracy for the test set
SOFM-SVR model
SOFM-SVR combined with filter-based feature selection
X is Certain input variable (i.e. feature) Y is response variable (i.e. label) n is the number of training samples
SOFM-SVR filter-based feature selection
Performance measures
Ai is the actual value of sample i Fi is a predicted value of sample i n is the number of samples.
Experimental data set
SOFM-SVR with various numbers of clusters in dataset #1
Accuracy measures with various numbers of clusters
Wilcoxon sign rank test
Wilcoxon sign rank test on the prediction errors for the SOFM-SVR withvarious numbers of clusters
Results of SOFM-SVR using three clusters
Results of SOFM-SVR with selected features
Original Feature VS. Original Feature Original Feature VS. Original Feature
Original FeatureOriginal Feature
Original FeatureOriginal Feature
Wilcoxon sign rank test
Important FeatureImportant Feature
MA10: 10-day moving average. MACD9: 9-day moving average convergence/ divergence. +DI10: directional indicator up. -DI10: directional indicator down. K10: 10-day stochastic index K PSY10: 10-day psychological line. D9: 9-day stochastic index D
Relative importance of the selected features
Wilcoxon sign rank test: SOFM-SVR vs. single SVR
MAPE comparison: SOFM-SVR vs. single SVRs.
Training time comparisons: SOFM-SVR vs. single SVRs.
Conclusion
Hybrid SOFM-SVR with filter based feature selection to improve the prediction accuracy and to reduce the training time for the financial daily stock index prediction
Further research directions are using optimization algorithms (e.g., genetic algorithms) to optimize the SVR parameters and performing feature selection using a wrapper-based approach that combines SVR with other optimization tools
Thank YouThank You
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