a multi-criteria decision model for prioritization of critical road structures

INFORMS Annual Meeting 2008Washington D.C.

October 15, 2008 Wednesday 13:30 - 15:00 Marriot Wardman - Room 8218

Session WC14Multi-criteria Decision Model for Project Portfolio Selection Considering Synergies

Marina Duarte, Adiel Teixeira Almeida

A Multiple Criteria Sorting Approach with Tchebycheff Utility Function Banu Soylu

Country Credit-risk Rating Aggregation via the Separation-deviation Model Erick Moreno Centeno, Dorit Hochbaum

Evaluating the Impact of Additional Information in the Context of MCDA with Information Imperfection

Sarah Ben Amor, Jean-Marc Martel

A Multi-criteria Decision Model for Prioritization of Critical Road Structures

Ozay Ozaydin, Ilker Topcu

A multi-criteria decision model for prioritization of critical road structures

Ozay OZAYDIN & Y. Ilker TOPCUIstanbul Technical University

agenda

• Disaster

• Disaster management

• Decision model

disaster

2

vulnerability+

hazard

human related

geologic hydrometeorologic

natural technical

human related

complex emergencies

infectious diseases

population movement

famine/food insecurity

drought

animal and insect infestation

natural

transport accidents

industrial accidents

techn

ical

hydrometeorologic

tsunami

flood

typhoon, tornado..

earthquake

volcanic eruptions

landslide

geolo

gic

human related

geologic hydrometeorologic

natural technical

earthquake

volcaniceruption

landslide

complexemergencysituations

infectiousdiseases

populationmovement

famine

transportaccidents

industrialaccidents

draught

insectinfestation

tsunamiflood

typhoon,tornado..

earthquake

EMDATThe International Emergency Disasters Database

www.emdat.be

funded by United Nations

contains location, time, casualty, economic loss, impact area information of all disasters occurred between

1900 - 2008

all researchers are welcome after filling out a simple form

Disaster Date Casualties

Earthquake December 26, 1939 32,962

Earthquake August 17, 1999 17,127

Earthquake April 29, 1903 6,000

Earthquake November 26, 1942 4,000

Earthquake February 1, 1944 3,959

Earthquake November 24, 1976 3,840

Earthquake December 20, 1942 3,000

Earthquake November 26, 1943 2,824

Earthquake August 19, 1966 2,394

Earthquake September 6, 1975 2,385

10 of first 10 disasters causing most casualties that

occured in Turkey between 1900 - 2008

Disaster Date # of people effected

Earthquake June 28, 1998 1,589,600

Earthquake August 17, 1999 1,358,953

Flood May 20, 1998 1,240,047

Earthquake September 30, 1983 834,137

Earthquake September 18, 1984 375,038

Earthquake October 18, 1984 375,035

Earthquake March 13, 1992 348,850

Earthquake July 22, 1967 326,073

Flood November 4, 1995 306,617

Earthquake May 1, 2003 290,520

8 of first 10 disasters effecting the most amount of

people that occured in Turkey between 1900 - 2008

Disaster Date Economic loss (US$)

Earthquake August 17, 1999 20 billions

Flood May 20, 1998 1 billion

Earthquake November 12, 1999 1 billion

Earthquake March 13, 1992 750 millions

Earthquake June 28, 1998 550 millions

Flood October 27, 2006 317 millions

Earthquake October 1, 1995 206 millions

Flood June 18, 1990 150 millions

Earthquake May 1, 2003 135 millions

Earthquake February 3, 2002 95 millions

7 of first 10 disasters causing the most economic loss

that occured in Turkey between 1900 - 2008

earthquake

Hurricane6%

Forest fire3%

Landslide6%

Flood26%

Change in temp.5%

Infectious diseases5%

Earthquake50%

# of incidents

Earthquake97%

casualties

Floods20%

Infectious diseases2%

Earthquake78%

# of effected people

Floods7%

Earthquake93%

damage

earthquake

?

be prepared

disaster postpre

preparedness

mitigation

disaster

recoveryresponse

disaster

mitigation

recoveryresponsepreparation

disaster

disasterm

anagement

0.m

onth

-1.m

onth

-2 m

onth

s

-3 m

onth

s

1 m

onth

2 m

onth

s

3 m

onth

s

4 m

onth

s

5 m

onth

s6

mon

ths

disaster

bridges, viaducts and tunnels are

critical elements of transportation

system

the importance of these structures are more vividly seen when emergency response process is disrupted due to loss of functionality of them.

what can be done?

strengtheningre-constructingdesign change

time

money

decision

cost-benefit analysis

linear regression modelsevaluation of safety levels of the bridge/tunnel/viaduct with respect to

damage, structural capacity and local geological characteristics

do-don’t do decision

multi-criteria modelsdetermining the sensitivity of the structure by taking different perspectives into

consideration

cost-benefit analysis

linear regression modelsevaluation of safety levels of the bridge/tunnel/viaduct with respect to

damage, structural capacity and local geological characteristics

do-don’t do decision

multi-criteria modelsdetermining the sensitivity of the structure by taking different perspectives into

consideration

Strategic Importance

Public safetybased on number of people using the structure during

rush hours

Strategic Importance

Public safetybased on number of people using the structure during

rush hours

Highway

Strategic Importance

Public safetybased on number of people using the structure during

rush hours

Highway

Urban roads

Strategic Importance

Public safetybased on number of people using the structure during

rush hours

Highway

Urban roads

Emergency actionloss of functionality of

preferred roads

Strategic Importance

Public safetybased on number of people using the structure during

rush hours

Highway

Urban roads

Emergency actionloss of functionality of

preferred roads

Firestation

Strategic Importance

Public safetybased on number of people using the structure during

rush hours

Highway

Urban roads

Emergency actionloss of functionality of

preferred roads

Firestation

Hospital

Strategic Importance

Public safetybased on number of people using the structure during

rush hours

Highway

Urban roads

Emergency actionloss of functionality of

preferred roads

Firestation

Hospital

Strategic Importance

Emergency rescue units

Public safetybased on number of people using the structure during

rush hours

Highway

Urban roads

Emergency actionloss of functionality of

preferred roads

Firestation

Hospital

Strategic Importance

Emergency rescue units

Military zone

Public safetybased on number of people using the structure during

rush hours

Highway

Urban roads

Emergency actionloss of functionality of

preferred roads

Firestation

Hospital

Long term economical impact

loss of work force

Strategic Importance

Emergency rescue units

Military zone

Public safetybased on number of people using the structure during

rush hours

Highway

Urban roads

Emergency actionloss of functionality of

preferred roads

Firestation

Hospital

Long term economical impact

loss of work force

Capacity of roads Potential usage

Strategic Importance

Emergency rescue units

Military zone

Public safetybased on number of people using the structure during

rush hours

Highway

Urban roads

Emergency actionloss of functionality of

preferred roads

Firestation

Hospital

Long term economical impact

loss of work force

Capacity of roads Potential usage

Average traffic Frequency of usage

Strategic Importance

Emergency rescue units

Military zone

Public safetybased on number of people using the structure during

rush hours

Highway

Urban roads

Emergency actionloss of functionality of

preferred roads

Firestation

Hospital

Long term economical impact

loss of work force

Capacity of roads Potential usage

Average traffic Frequency of usage

Strategic Importance

Emergency rescue units Alternative routes

Military zone

Public safetybased on number of people using the structure during

rush hours

Highway

Urban roads

Emergency actionloss of functionality of

preferred roads

Firestation

Hospital

Long term economical impact

loss of work force

Capacity of roads Potential usage

Average traffic Frequency of usage

Strategic Importance

Emergency rescue units Alternative routes

Military zone Multi-functionality Usage for different routes

Public safetybased on number of people using the structure during

rush hours

Highway

Urban roads

Emergency actionloss of functionality of

preferred roads

Firestation

Hospital

Long term economical impact

loss of work force

Capacity of roads Potential usage

Average traffic Frequency of usage

Interaction with other lifelines

decrease in quality of life

Strategic Importance

Emergency rescue units Alternative routes

Military zone Multi-functionality Usage for different routes

Public safetybased on number of people using the structure during

rush hours

Highway

Urban roads

Emergency actionloss of functionality of

preferred roads

Firestation

Hospital

Long term economical impact

loss of work force

Capacity of roads Potential usage

Average traffic Frequency of usage

Interaction with other lifelines

decrease in quality of life

Lifelines

Strategic Importance

Emergency rescue units Alternative routes

Military zone Multi-functionality Usage for different routes

Public safetybased on number of people using the structure during

rush hours

Highway

Urban roads

Emergency actionloss of functionality of

preferred roads

Firestation

Hospital

Long term economical impact

loss of work force

Capacity of roads Potential usage

Average traffic Frequency of usage

Interaction with other lifelines

decrease in quality of life

Lifelines

Transportation network

Strategic Importance

Emergency rescue units Alternative routes

Military zone Multi-functionality Usage for different routes

Public safetybased on number of people using the structure during

rush hours

Highway

Urban roads

Emergency actionloss of functionality of

preferred roads

Firestation

Hospital

Long term economical impact

loss of work force

Capacity of roads Potential usage

Average traffic Frequency of usage

Interaction with other lifelines

decrease in quality of life

Lifelines

Transportation network

Strategic Importance

Emergency rescue units Alternative routes

Military zone Multi-functionality Usage for different routes

Public safetybased on number of people using the structure during

rush hours

Highway

Urban roads

Emergency actionloss of functionality of

preferred roads

Firestation

Hospital

Long term economical impact

loss of work force

Capacity of roads Potential usage

Average traffic Frequency of usage

Interaction with other lifelines

decrease in quality of life

Lifelines

Transportation network

Strategic Importance

Emergency rescue units Alternative routes

Military zone Multi-functionality Usage for different routes

decision conference

Chief of planning of “Fire Department of Istanbul”

14 members of “Disaster Coordination Office”

2 Industrial Engineering Professors from Istanbul Technical University

1 Civil Engineering Professor from Istanbul Technical University

1 Civil Engineering Professor from Bosphorus University

5 water crossing bridges: 2 on bosphorus, 3 on golden horn

32 highway bridges, 17 viaducts, 3 tunnels under control of the municipality

Geographical Information Systems (GIS)

next step

www.ozaydin.info

www.ilkertopcu.org

www.slideshare.net/ozay