absence and attainment at key stage 4 (new analysis of the national pupil database) jo hutchinson,...

Absence and Attainment at Key Absence and Attainment at Key Stage 4Stage 4

(New analysis of the National (New analysis of the National Pupil Database)Pupil Database)

Jo Hutchinson, Schools Analysis & Research DivisionJo.Hutchinson@dcsf.gsi.gov.uk

21 November 2008

Standards & Delivery Analysis Unit

Overview

• Background– Absence distribution in

secondary schools and at KS4– Absence over the Key Stage

• What is the link between absence and attainment at KS4?

• Are all types of absence equally linked to attainment?

• Is the relationship the same for all groups of pupils?

• Is absence still linked to attainment when we control for other established factors, or is it just a proxy?

• Where next for the analysis of absence and attainment?

Standards & Delivery Analysis Unit

Essential absence facts – the distribution

Standards & Delivery Analysis Unit

Essential absence facts – the distribution

Standards & Delivery Analysis Unit

Essential absence facts – the distribution

Standards & Delivery Analysis Unit

Essential absence facts – the distribution

Standards & Delivery Analysis Unit

Background – persistence of absence over the Key Stage

Standards & Delivery Analysis Unit

Autumn 2006

Sp

rin

g 2

007

Summer 2006

Sp

rin

g 2

007

•Unsurprisingly, absence is correlated over time

•Comparing all possible pairs of terms, the strongest correlations are within-year (autumn 2006 and spring 2007 = 0.70**)

•The weakest correlation was between spring 2006 and the previous summer 2006 (0.48**)

•Initial tests showed the strongest relationships between absence and KS4 attainment were found using absence across the whole Key Stage

•Subsequent analysis reflects absence levels over the Key Stage (Autumn 2005 – Spring 2007 inclusive) and attainment in 2007

KS4 Absence and Attainment – is the expected link established within the national data?

Standards & Delivery Analysis Unit

KS4 Absence and Attainment – is the expected link established within the national data?

Standards & Delivery Analysis Unit

KS4 Absence and Attainment – is the expected link established within the national data?

Standards & Delivery Analysis Unit

What does GCSE attainment look like for Persistent Absentees?

Standards & Delivery Analysis Unit

Are all types of absence equally linked to attainment?

Standards & Delivery Analysis Unit

Are all types of absence equally linked to attainment?

Standards & Delivery Analysis Unit

Are all types of absence equally linked to attainment?

Standards & Delivery Analysis Unit

Is the relationship the same for all groups of pupils?

Standards & Delivery Analysis Unit

Will tackling absence narrow the gaps?

Standards & Delivery Analysis Unit

Will tackling absence narrow the gaps?

Standards & Delivery Analysis Unit

Will tackling absence narrow the gaps?

Standards & Delivery Analysis Unit

Controlling for established factors in pupil progress – is absence just a proxy?

Standards & Delivery Analysis Unit

How big is the difference in attainment?

• Penalty of 3 GCSE points for a 1% increase in absence over the Key Stage – 6 points = 1 grade in 1 GCSE subject– FSM eligible -25 points– SEN at School Action Plus/Statement -64 points– Girls +15 points– Area of low deprivation +5 points

Standards & Delivery Analysis Unit

What does this look like for persistent absentees rather than at the margin?

Standards & Delivery Analysis Unit

Where next for this analysis?

• Other Key Stages• Absence and progression to A-level• Absence, Attainment and LSYPE

– attitudes and beliefs– risky behaviours

• Modelling the likelihood of developing persistent absence

Standards & Delivery Analysis Unit