adaptation to climate change and sustainable development: a case study of bangladesh dr. saleemul...
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Adaptation to Climate Change and Sustainable Development: A
Case study of Bangladesh
Dr. Saleemul Huq
Director
Climate Change Programme
International Institute for Environment and Development, London, United Kingdom
Bangladesh: Climate Change and Sustainable Development Study
• Carried out in 2000 by Bangladeshi and international team
• Based on previous work done on assessing vulnerability of Bangladesh to climate change impacts
• Two climate change and sea level scenarios chosen for 2030 and 2050
Objectives of the study
• What are the expected climate changes?• What are the consequences for Bangladesh?• For what climate change-induced impacts is
Bangladesh most vulnerable?• How can the potential effects of climate
change be factored into policy making, and what adaptation measures for Bangladesh are most feasible?
Sectors chosen
• Coastal resources
• Fresh Water resources
• Agriculture
• Human health
• Ecosystem and biodiversity
Factors Increasing Bangladesh’s Vulnerability to Climate Change
Geography Most elevations under 10m
Climate Subject to severe natural disasters
Population 1998 population 126 million. High growth rate and population density
Economy One of the world’s poorest nations. 1999 GNP/capita: $370
Education Literacy rate of 53%
Human Health
Life expectancy: 58 years. 56% under 5 malnourished
Factors Increasing Bangladesh’s Vulnerability to Climate Change
Geography Most elevations under 10m
Climate Subject to severe natural disasters
Population 1998 population 126 million. High growth rate and population density
Economy One of the world’s poorest nations. 1999 GNP/capita: $370
Education Literacy rate of 53%
Human Health
Life expectancy: 58 years. 56% under 5 malnourished
Climate Change Scenarios
Year Sea Level Rise (cm)
Temperature Increase (ºC)
Precipitation Fluctuation Compared to 1990 (%)
2030 30 +0.7 in monsoon; +1.3 in winter
-3 in winter; + 11 in monsoon
2050 50 +1.1 in monsoon; +1.8 in winter
-37 in winter; + 28 in monsoon
Adaptation Measures to Mitigate Drainage Congestion in Coastal Areas
Key Impacts and Measures Current State of Implementation & Requirements for Improvement
Physical adaptations
Increasing infrastructure drainage capacity
Some bridges and culverts are poorly designed. Water and road infrastructure lacks maintenance
Tidal basins New concept: early results are promising
Institutional Adaptations
Proper O&M arrangements, including establishment of local water management
Poor institutional framework. Local government needs to be involved
Design criteria for drainage capacity infrastructure
Poorly designed and implemented. May be ineffective in coastal zones
Adaptation Measures to Mitigate Salinization in Coastal Areas
Key Impacts and Measures Current State of Implementation & Requirements for Improvement
Physical adaptations
Resuscitation of river networks Could be meaningful in short-term, especially in south-west
Surface water flow from upstream e.g. by diversion or withdrawal from rivers
Capital intensive, but cross-dams could prevent saline water intrusion. Process should include EIA/SIA
Institutional Adaptations
Operation of sluices and regulators Poor existing management
Water saving techniques Not applied at maximum capacity. Could pose socio-economic problems to farmers
Adaptation Measures to Improve Morphological Dynamics in Coastal Areas
Key Impacts and Measures Current State of Implementation & Requirements for Improvement
Physical adaptations
Mangrove greenbelts Started. Needs re-evaluation and continuation
Cross dams Needs-assessment necessary for new dams. Adverse effects elsewhere. Could be expensive
Institutional Adaptations
Protection of mangroves and coastal wetlands
Evaluation of activities needed, especially regarding maximizing social benefits
Land tenure laws Evaluation needed
Adaptation Measures for Disasters in Coastal Areas
Key Impacts and Measures Current State of Implementation & Requirements for Improvement
Physical adaptations
Cyclone shelters Already proven. Highly socially acceptable
Mangrove greenbelts Started. Needs evaluation
Institutional Adaptations
Forecasting and dissemination Flood and cyclone forecasting should be location specific
Involvement of CBOs and volunteers
Should continue
Adaptation Measures to Mitigate Reduced Freshwater Availability
Key Risks and Adaptation Measures
Current State of Implementation & Requirements for Improvement
Physical adaptations
Increasing drainage capacity of infrastructure
Some bridge and culverts poorly designed. Water and road infrastructure lacks maintenance
Storage Not evaluated in terms of recharging aquifers
Institutional Adaptations
Guidelines to incorporate CC in long-term planning
Not existing
Reduction of water demand Need better policies on extraction, paying for use, promoting efficient use
Adaptation Measures for Freshwater Drainage Congestion
Key Risks and Adaptation Measures
Current State of Implementation & Requirements for Improvement
Physical adaptations
Sufficient road drainage capacity Poorly designed and maintained infrastructure
Controlled sedimentation and Land-fills
New concepts. Need more understanding
Institutional Adaptations
Improved drainage criteria infrastructure
Not tried yet
Participatory management of water resources infrastructure
Needs adequate policy reforms
Adaptation Measures to Morphological Dynamics for Freshwater Resources
Key Risks and Adaptation Measures
Current State of Implementation & Requirements for Improvement
Physical adaptations
River training and bank protection Poorly done. Costly, but river bank protection is high priority
Dredging of navigation channels Limited coverage
Institutional Adaptations
Guidelines to incorporate CC in long-term planning
Not existing
Improved monitoring and forecast of changes
Needs capacity enhancement
Adaptation Measures to Increased Freshwater Flooding
Key Risks and Adaptation Measures
Current State of Implementation & Requirements for Improvement
Physical adaptations
Elevated land as flood refuge or food shelters
Practiced throughout the country
Flood refuge areas e.g. Dhaka city itself
Needs evaluation
Institutional Adaptations
Improved flood warning and forecasting
Proved effective. Needs more cooperation and to be location specific
Evacuation of vulnerable people and valuables
Limited capacity exists. Costly, especially for the very poor
Adaptation Measures in Agriculture
Adaptation Measures Current State of Implementation & Requirements for Improvement
Physical adaptations
Improved irrigation efficiency Poor. Needs institutional support
Crop diversification Efforts have met with limited success
Institutional Adaptations
Training programmes and dissemination
Dissemination is poor. Activities need enhancing
Research and development of new (salinity and drought resistant) crops
Research needs enhancing
Adaptation Measures in Human Health
Adaptation Measures Current State of Implementation & Requirements for Improvement
Physical adaptations
Water treatment facilities Low coverage. Poor quality. Needs expanding
Improved sanitation Coverage increasing
Institutional Adaptations
Surveillance and monitoring of conditions favourable for disease outbreak
Unsatisfactory. Needs co-ordination with media to issue early warnings
Improve public education, especially in reproductive health
Coverage increasing. Quality needs improvement
Adaptation Measures to Protect Ecosystems and Biodiversity
Adaptation Measures Current State of Implementation & Requirements for Improvement
Integrated ecosystem planning and management
Not yet practiced. Proposed Coastal Zone Development Program could be a vehicle for this
Management of protected areas and 14 ecologically critical areas
Improved understanding needed
Coastal greenbelt Recently started. Promising results
Agro-forestry development Ongoing programs need expansion
Main impacts of climate change
• Drainage congestions due to higher sea levels and and flooding
• Reduced fresh water availability
• Disturbances to morphological processes (mainly in coastal zone)
• Increased intensity of disasters (extreme events)
Methodological Issues Addressed
• Choosing climate change and sea level rise scenarios
• Modelling impacts of chosen climate change scenarios on droughts, floods, cyclones
• Identifying possible adaptations
• Prioritising adaptation actions
Process of study
• Analysis of climate change impacts using scenarios and models
• Identification of most vulnerable sectors• Identification of possible adaptation actions and
measures in each sector• Stakeholder–led prioritisation of adaptation
actions in each sector• Cross-sectoral linkages identified and discussed
with stakeholders
Key findings of the study
• Bangladesh faces grave socio-ecological risks if it fails to adapt to climate change
• Many of the risks are gradual and difficult to differentiate from background variability of climate
• Coastal areas of the country are specially at risk• Adaptation to climate change is fundamentally
linked to sustainable development efforts of the country
Relevance to ongoing policies and programmes
• National Water Policy and Water Management Plan
• Coastal Zone Management Programme
• National Agriculture Development Plan
• National Biodiversity Action Plan
• Sustainable Environmental Management Programme
Impact on Policy makers-1
• Sectoral level– Water Resources– Coastal Resources– Biodiversity– Agriculture– Environment
Impact on Policy makers-2
• National Level– Planning– Finance– Foreign Affairs– Prime Minister’s office
Impacts on Policy makers-3
• International – COP 5, 6 and 7– LDC group– Adaptation issues– COP 8 (Delhi)
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