advanced nowcasting capabilities richard l. carpenter, jr., ph.d., ccm weather decision...
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Advanced Nowcasting Capabilities
Richard L. Carpenter, Jr., Ph.D., CCM
Weather Decision Technologies, Inc.
MDSS Stakeholder Meeting – October 2005, Boulder, CO
About Weather Decision Technologies
• Founded by research meteorologists in Norman, OK, in 2000
• Work with (and license technology from) research organizations
• Advanced uses of weather data and algorithms
Key Weather Questions
• When is the (snow, freezing rain, etc.) going to start?
• When is it going to stop?
• How much will accumulate?
Future Radar: MAPLE
• Developed at McGill University (Montreal)
– Exclusively licensed by WDT
Future Radar: MAPLE
Observed Predicted
Forecast of 2-hour Precip Accumulation
Observed Predicted
Comparison of MAPLE with Numerical Model (WRF)
Observed Accumulation WRF
MAPLE Skill Map
Blending of MAPLE and Models
• During the first 4 hours, MAPLE performs better than models
• After 4-6 hours, model forecasts are more accurate than MAPLE
• WDT is working with McGill to optimally blend MAPLE and WRF
Kilambi & Zawadzki 2005
MAPLE better Models better
Ski
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Operational MAPLE Forecasts
• Using NEXRAD Level II and Canadian radar mosaics
• 6 hour forecasts updated every 15 min
• 1 km grid
Conditional Precip Type
• Precip type (snow, freezing rain, etc.) overlay based on hourly updating numerical model (WRF)
MAPLE Precip Accumulation
MAPLE Nowcast MAPLE 4 h Precip Accumulation
(also available by type)
Hazardous Weather Alerting
60 min threat of ¾ and 2 inch hail 60 min threat of lightning
ETA/ETD (onset/all-clear) for a given location
Hazardous Weather Alerting
High-resolution Numerical Model Forecasts (WRF)
National Forecast
Regional/Statewide Forecasts of Temperature, Wind, Precip, and Weather
Mesonet data(e.g., DOT sensors)
5 km grid
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