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AERIUSScience at the core of
policy and practice
an integrated approach to nitrogen
Mark Wilmot
National institute forPublic Health and theEnvironment
mark.wilmot@rivm.nlwww.aerius.nl
2016 International Nitrogen Initiative Conference, Mark Wilmot “AERIUS science at the core of policy and practice”
Introduction
๏ The European Birds/Habitats Directiveensures the conservation of a widerange of rare, threatened or endemicanimal and plant species
๏ Excess in nitrogen as well ashydrology are the two key componentsin northern Europe
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2016 International Nitrogen Initiative Conference, Mark Wilmot “AERIUS science at the core of policy and practice”
Dutch integrated Approach to Nitrogen
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๏ 118 of 162 sites withexcessive nitrogendeposition
๏A significant decrease isrequired to achieve N2000goals in terms ofconservation objectives ofthe EU directive
๏Rigid norms, DutchCouncil of State (excessdefined by critical loads )
๏ Assessments focus onlyon Nitrogen
๏Unrealistic level of detail
๏Difficulties with assessmentof accumulating effects
๏ Permits issuing in generalcomes to a halt
๏When permits issued it is acostly and lengthyprocesses
2016 International Nitrogen Initiative Conference, Mark Wilmot “AERIUS science at the core of policy and practice”
Dutch integrated Approach to Nitrogen
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Ecological restoration measures Accounting for nitrogendeposition
2016 International Nitrogen Initiative Conference, Mark Wilmot “AERIUS science at the core of policy and practice”
Dutch integrated Approach to Nitrogen
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๏ The premise of PAS is that a reduction in nitrogen deposition andextra effort on ecological restoration will enable recovery of habitats
๏ Assessment on Nitrogen, Hydrology and other major effects thatthreaten the quality of habitats
๏ Legally embedded in National law
๏ Room for development (permitting expanding or new activities)
๏ Monitoring and hands-on control
2016 International Nitrogen Initiative Conference, Mark Wilmot “AERIUS science at the core of policy and practice”
Room for development
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Autonomous development
Current levelof totalnitrogendeposition
2.5%
0%
Economic growth
Agricultural policy measures
Future levelof totalnitrogendeposition by2.5% EG
2016 International Nitrogen Initiative Conference, Mark Wilmot “AERIUS science at the core of policy and practice”
Towards information governance
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2016 International Nitrogen Initiative Conference, Mark Wilmot “AERIUS science at the core of policy and practice”
Towards information governance
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2016 International Nitrogen Initiative Conference, Mark Wilmot “AERIUS science at the core of policy and practice”
What is AERIUS?
AERIUS is an Open Source software instrument specificallydeveloped to support the Integrated Approach to Nitrogen forthe evaluation of policy decisions, ecologicalassessments as well as issuing permits.
AERIUS combines the complexity of atmospherictransportation modeling, ecological assessments and reportingwith the ease of use of e.g. online banking.
AERIUS products are publicly available and free of charge
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2016 International Nitrogen Initiative Conference, Mark Wilmot “AERIUS science at the core of policy and practice”
The AERIUS N-cycle
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2016 International Nitrogen Initiative Conference, Mark Wilmot “AERIUS science at the core of policy and practice”11
500 m
Local
๏ Asses nitrogenimpact of individualemission sources,project and plans
๏ Incorporatemultiple sectors ifnecessary
2016 International Nitrogen Initiative Conference, Mark Wilmot “AERIUS science at the core of policy and practice”12
500 m
Local
๏ Immediatefeedback whetheror not the project iseligible for requiredpermitting
๏ If so, permitrequest can bedone directly fromAERIUS
2016 International Nitrogen Initiative Conference, Mark Wilmot “AERIUS science at the core of policy and practice”13
4 km
Regional
๏ Asses nitrogenimpact frommultiple sources
๏ Across multiplesectors if necessary
๏ Evaluate regionalpolicy drivers
2016 International Nitrogen Initiative Conference, Mark Wilmot “AERIUS science at the core of policy and practice”14
80 km
National
๏ Asses impact ofdifferent policyscenario’s
๏ Monitoring ofeffects of policydecisions
2016 International Nitrogen Initiative Conference, Mark Wilmot “AERIUS science at the core of policy and practice”15
Continental
๏ Asses potentialimpact of differentpolicy scenario’s
๏ Monitoring ofeffects of policydecisions
2016 International Nitrogen Initiative Conference, Mark Wilmot “AERIUS science at the core of policy and practice”16
Agriculture
Industry
Waste processing
Traffic and transport
Shipping
Off-shore
Abroad
Natural sources
On every level
๏ Insight intocontribution ofdifferent sectoralemissions
๏ Insight intopotential effects ofdifferent policyscenario’s
2016 International Nitrogen Initiative Conference, Mark Wilmot “AERIUS science at the core of policy and practice”
Quick remarks on modeling approach
๏ Operational Priority Substances Model (OPS)
๏ long-term climatological trajectory model
๏ DEPosition of Acidifying Compounds (DEPAC)
๏ Compensation point model
๏ On going research for use of EMEP(4NL)
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Jaarsveld et al. (2012)Zanten et al. (2010)Wichink Kruit et al. (2007)
2016 International Nitrogen Initiative Conference, Mark Wilmot “AERIUS science at the core of policy and practice”
Model uncertainties and the integrated approach
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2016 International Nitrogen Initiative Conference, Mark Wilmot “AERIUS science at the core of policy and practice”19
https://www.aerius.nl https://gitlab.com/AERIUS/AERIUS
2016 International Nitrogen Initiative Conference, Mark Wilmot “AERIUS science at the core of policy and practice”20
https://www.aerius.nl
๏ “Scientifically” utilizing all existing knowledge and data in asingle “ecosystem” is a great challenge
๏ But delivering the information into a form that made the usersusceptible is the greatest achievement
๏ I’ll be happy to give you more detailed information or ademonstration
Concluding remarks
https://gitlab.com/AERIUS/AERIUS
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