afghanistan’s youth bulge dilemma i’ve never understood why we give a damn whether a girl goes...
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Presented at: Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars
Washington, DC
Afghanistan’s
Youth Bulge Dilemma
Richard Cincotta
The Stimson Center
rcincotta@stimson.org
Frankly, I’ve never understood why we give a damn whether a girl goes to school in Afghanistan or not.
That’s not a national interest of the United States.
It’s no interest to the United States.
MICHAEL SCHEUER Former-head of a CIA special unit Conference on US Foreign Policy JUNE 28, 2006
Cartoon by: John Deering, Arkansas Gazette, 2001
To the Taliban: Give us Osama Bin Laden or we’ll send your women to college.
Transitional Population age structures
2010
Age structural transition
Data: UN Population Division, 2013
Data: UN Population Division, 2013
Zone of instability:
• high risk of civil conflict
• low probability of attaining FH’s “Free” status
• high risk of losing FH’s “Free” status
Age structural transition
Fertility by Region
Northern 4.9
North Eastern
5.1
Eastern 5.6
Capital 5.1 Highland
4.6
Southern 4.7
Western 4.9
Eastern 5.5
Afghanistan 5.1
TFR for women age 15-49 for the 3-year period before the survey
South
Central
Measure DHS, 2011
Pashtun-speaking region
Fertility by Background Characteristics
4.8 5.2
5.4 5.0
5.3
2.8 3.6
4.4 4.7
5.3
5.2 4.7
5.1
RichestFourthMiddle
SecondPoorest
HigherSecondary
PrimaryMadrassa
No education
RuralUrban
Afghanistan
RESIDENCE
EDUCATION
WEALTH
TFR for women age 15-49 Measure DHS, 2011
EDUCATION
INCOME
Families with FEW
CHILDREN
Youthful
Intermediate
~Stable
Youthful
~Risk
1. LONG TERM Goal: The middle of the age-structural transition,
reducing the risk of political violence. [women’s issues] 1. SHORT TERM Goal: Immediate end to armed conflict. [men’s
agenda]
1. THE DILEMMA: Are they compatible?
The Youth Bulge Dilemma:
Age structures: 2010
Data: UN Population Division, 2010 Rev.
Age structures: 2030
Data: UN Population Division, 2010 Rev. (medium fertility variant)
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